Movies & Cinema during the Pandemic? Catch-all Discussion (1 Viewer)

[TravisR]

Right. But "relatively great" doesn't nessescarily mean it will actually make its money back. The last I heard, it had a $200 million budget before marketing. That means, what, $600 million worldwide to break even? It's a very high mountain to climb . Are they willing to take a loss on it just to have new product to put out in theaters?

I don't think they're going to release the movie if their math is telling them that they'll be giving up tens of millions of dollars. If seating capacity isn't enough to fully earn or they're afraid of even the unlikely possibility that states might shut down places with gatherings of people due to new outbreaks, they won't go forward with a July release. Since high numbers of new infections are already being reported in the southwest & the south and the giant markets of NYC and LA will have, at best, very limited seating, that seems like it could result in alot of money that they might lose out on.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

If they release it now and it underperforms compared to, say, Dunkirk or Inception, WB will be able to write off the difference and take a huge tax break. If they don’t release it, then they can’t claim anything and just wind up with no income.

They must also be getting massive pressure from their exhibition partners who are on the verge of sinking.

We have a bizarre system when it comes to finance and accounting where instead of AMC just not making money now and losing money on rent obligations, it’s measured against what they made at this time last year. By not making what they made in May and June 2019, the difference between their grosses at this time this year vs this time last year is considered a loss, and that’s a huge problem with how the economics of running a public company are done.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I don't think they're going to release the movie if their math is telling them that they'll be giving up tens of millions of dollars.

Let's hope you are right. I want very much to see it in a theater, but that means it would have to be delayed in order for me to do that.

 

[jcroy]

We have a bizarre system when it comes to finance and accounting where instead of AMC just not making money now and losing money on rent obligations, it’s measured against what they made at this time last year. By not making what they made in May and June 2019, the difference between their grosses at this time this year vs this time last year is considered a loss, and that’s a huge problem with how the economics of running a public company are done.

Folks who are versed in finance (or accounting) know this, and adjust their thinking accordingly.

It is the people who are ignorant about the ways and means of financial reporting, which fall for the "sky is falling" losses commentary. Every time I come across people offline who think/talk this way, I always ask them what the losses are relative to. Frequently their response is a blank stare on their faces, or asking why my question is relevant to their "sky is falling" commentary. (ie. They don't know what they're talking about).

 

[TravisR]

If they release it now and it underperforms compared to, say, Dunkirk or Inception, WB will be able to write off the difference and take a huge tax break. If they don’t release it, then they can’t claim anything and just wind up with no income.

Every time I hear the term "write off", I think of this:



If it's as simple as you suggest (and I certainly don't know, may be it is), why does any company ever care that their products lose money? Although I would have to wonder if Warners can basically make up what they lose, it still doesn't make sense to throw your movie out now when later could make more money than they can get a tax break on.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

Haha, that’s a great clip, haven’t seen that in ages

A surprisingly high amount of what the stock market does is based on the “feelings” of the biggest investors, and not any sort of reality. If they feel that a company is on solid footing, they’ll excuse a misstep. Lowering tax liability by taking a write off makes investors feel better than having unreleased product on the shelf that may or may not make money in the future - unreleased product is uncertainty, and uncertainty hurts their feelings. A tax write off is a certainty, and that helps their feelings.

Obviously an oversimplification but it’s in the ballpark.

Look at AMC’s stock immediately prior to the pandemic to now. It’s doubled since they’ve been closed. So here they are in a situation where they’re closed, losing money every day on rent, with no clear picture for when they’ll be 100% back, and despite that, their value has doubled since the last day they were opened for business.

That’s not based on any sort of economic or business reality. That’s based on investors liking what AMC is saying about reopening and investors hoping for a return to normal.

 

[jcroy]

Look at AMC’s stock immediately prior to the pandemic to now. It’s doubled since they’ve been closed. So here they are in a situation where they’re closed, losing money every day on rent, with no clear picture for when they’ll be 100% back, and despite that, their value has doubled since the last day they were opened for business.

That’s not based on any sort of economic or business reality. That’s based on investors liking what AMC is saying about reopening and investors hoping for a return to normal.

Stock markets short term are based a lot on psychology and irrational behavior, and not as much on hard financial numbers.

Longer term over decades, hard financial numbers are a better indicator in hindsight.

 

[ManW_TheUncool]

Although I would have to wonder if Warners can basically make up what they lose, it still doesn't make sense to throw your movie out now when later could make more money than they can get a tax break on.

IF large swathes of theaters are wiped away due to waiting out this pandemic, Warner will probably make far less.

Given what AMC, et al had been saying about their downward spiraling financial states and prospects, that may well be too great a risk to Warner to hold out... Certainly, they can't very well wait until next summer, if we can even assume there will be a widely available, effective vaccine or similar by then. IF it's not Tenet, it'd have to be something else to help theaters stay afloat I imagine...

And of course, that's besides the other points Josh brought up about stock market financials...

_Man_

 

[Jake Lipson]

I wasn't sure where else to post this observation, so decided to stick it here: My local art house voluntarily closed its doors in early March prior to being ordered to do so by the city. They have indicated that they will not reopen until it is safe to do so, even though theaters here are technically allowed to be open. They are also fully paying their entire staff for the duration of the closure, which I'm sure is not an insignificant expense.

To that end, they are currently selling newly-designed T-shirts which "commemorate" the closure of the theatre. These say "INTERMISSION - Please stand by - 2020" with a drawing of the outside of the theatre. Proceeds from the sale of them will go toward paying employees during the closure. You're allowed to pick them up curbside on Fridays or Saturdays without entering the theater. They are also selling concessions curbside on those days, provided that you pre-order online, and bring the food to your car when you arrive.

I give them credit for finding creative ways to drum up business without actually being open, and paying their staff in full is amazing. But I'm not sure why anyone would want a T-shirt to commemorate the coronavirus closure. As far as I am concerned, the sooner this whole thing is a distant memory, the better, and I don't need a physical reminder of not being able to go to the movie theater. I do have a T-shirt with the theater's marquee artwork on it, which I've had for years.

I bring this up because something occurred to me. They don't normally book wide release blockbusters, but they are the only theater around here that can screen 70mm, so they booked Dunkirk there years ago and had a huge success with it. I know that prior to all of this going down, they were planning on booking Tenet in 70mm as well for July, and I was looking forward to being able to see it that way..

Unlike the big chain theaters around here, they have made absolutely no indication about when they actually might reopen at this point. If they're just now making T-shirts about the closure, it feels to me like that is them saying they are not going to open soon, because if they did, the shirt would be rendered more or less immediately redundant.

It will be interesting to see what happens. If the big chains actually attempt to open in July but they don't follow suit, that would make a very strong statement that they don't believe it is safe, even if the chains do.

 

[Wayne_j]

I went to the ET/Jurassic Park double feature at my local drive-in last night. There was a decent sized crowd. ET played and there were some black crush with some loss in the shadow detail. During intermission they actually calibrated their projector and Jurassic Park played looking about as good as it could considering that I had to watch it looking through my windshield. I went home and put on my ET disc and I'm not sure how much the theater's projector was off since a lot of the picture information was in the shadows anyway.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Variety has a new piece which amounts to, "Nobody knows anything."

Studios and Movie Theaters Want to Reopen, but Coronavirus May Still Scramble Plans

After "Tenet" and "Wonder Woman 1984" were delayed, studios have been scrambling to safely find new release dates.

variety.com

 

[Wayne_j]

I just got an email from Regal that they are reopening on July 10.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Good luck to them.

 

[Tino]

Good luck to them.

Them?? More like the audience right?

 

[Jake Lipson]

No, because I don't actually believe that date will stick, so the audience won't need luck, as they won't be able to go.

I was wondering, though, about professional film critics who make their living reviewing films either online or in newspapers. What do they do? If theaters do reopen, they would either have to go to them or have nothing to review and therefore potentially lose their jobs. They can't just review streaming stuff forever. For us here on the board, it would just be a personal choice to go or not go. But for them, if this is how they make their living, that would be an even more complex issue.

 

[TravisR]

I just got an email from Regal that they are reopening on July 10.

Didn't it say that some are opening on that day? I can't imagine all of them are going to play Inception or that Russell Crowe movie. Plus, I still think that the big movies planned for July are still moving again so that reopening date is probably going to change anyway.

 

[Malcolm R]

Bigger theaters around here have indicated they hope to open mid-July provided the governor allows 50% capacity at indoor businesses (which seems likely to happen). They say it's not worth opening at the current 25% capacity.

The theater I usually go to is hoping for a "soft opening" on July 10, with holdovers and classic films, and hoping for new releases in the weeks to follow.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Cinemark has released a video with their CEO talking about the safety standards that will be in place when they reopen.

The Cinemark Standard-Cinemark Theater Cleaning & Safety

Cinemark is enhancing our cleanliness, sanitization and safety measures at every step of your movie-going experience. Learn More about the Cinemark Standard

cinemark.com

Zoradi speaks well; I'll give him that much. It's not going to convince me to go out in the short term though. Our number of confirmed cases continues to rise, so it confuses me why theaters here would be allowed to reopen with cases continuing to surge.

Cinemark has also listed a number of the films that will be available as they reopen. A number of these are great films that I would normally love to see on a big screen again in a normal situation with unquestionably safe conditions, but that's not where we are. I'm certainly not going to put myself at possible risk to see a movie that I own on Blu-ray. Here, the earliest showtimes currently posted are for July 3.

See old classic movies in Cinemark movie theater near you.

Watch classic movies re-releasing in movie theaters near you. Check showtimes for old movies at your local theater and join us for a little flashback cinema.

cinemark.com

I doubt I'll go to Tenet, either, if it sticks to July, but at least that would be something new, so I understand the appeal even if I won't be going. I still wish they would delay it.

I suppose if I were dying of some unrelated and non-contagious disease, like cancer, and I knew I had only weeks to live, then I might consider going out to a movie upon reopening, because at that point I would have nothing to lose. But I don't have cancer, I'm not dying right now, and I have no wish to do so. Therefore, pass.

 

[Jake Lipson]

The theater I usually go to is hoping for a "soft opening" on July 10, with holdovers and classic films, and hoping for new releases in the weeks to follow.

Will you personally go back if they stick to that plan?

 

[Malcolm R]

Will you personally go back if they stick to that plan?

I didn't go to theaters very often before the pandemic, but I wouldn't have any issues with this if there was a new release I wanted to see (like Tenet). My only slight concern is that these theaters are in the most populous county of the state, which has had more than half of the cases in the state.

Virus cases in Vermont are quite low at the moment (zero new cases for the last two days, only one person hospitalized statewide, no deaths in nearly a month). Our issue is going to be if/when we get an influx of summer visitors/vacationers from other states.