Microsoft to officially unveil Xbox next, aka Durango May 21 (1 Viewer)

[Morgan Jolley]

DaveF - There are adapters that allow the Kinect to sit on a flatscreen. Also, I think you're discounting the popularity of consoles. Personally, I think mobile games (iPad/iPhone/Android) are big right now as a fad and will eventually give way to being the portable equivalent of solitaire. They won't be the significant experiences that people can get on home consoles unless they have dedicated gaming devices (3DS, which is selling extremely well, or PS Vita). Also, this generation alone, there are around 80-90 million PS3s and Xbox 360s and way more Wiis that have been sold. I think this is the most successful and best selling console generation.

 

[DaveF]

I'm discounting the future of consoles. The iPad seems to be the new Wii: the game system for everyone, not just gamers. I hope consoles stick around, since I enjoy them.
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/188567/Wii_U_still_struggles_in_February_sales_charts.php
http://www.vgchartz.com/article/250935/2013-year-on-year-sales-and-market-share-update-to-april-27th/

 

[Matt^Brown]

I don't see consoles going anywhere. Most real gamers are in their 30s and they will be buying these things left and right. Most like myself have kids in the early teens and they will eat this new stuff up. The decline you see now is due to the end of a product cycle.

 

[Morgan Jolley]

There has actually been a decline in mobile/social gaming in the last couple years. I believe that iPad/iPhone/etc. gaming is here to stay, but that it was a bubble and is bursting. It's going to be something that everyone does but only to kill time. The next great game is not coming to your phone.

I think the same basic reasons why PC gaming isn't huge are the same reasons why mobile gaming won't replace consoles. I'd say the most likely end outcome would be streaming everything, as in services like OnLive or Gaikai streaming onto everything around and nobody buying consoles anymore, even though they would be playing at home on a TV.

 

[DaveF]

That could be. I don't think we're facing a 1980s type video game crash, but it seems that dedicated consoles and high-end PC gaming are getting beat up, and phone and tablet gaming stealing from those markets and growing independently.What's the expected launch time for the new Xbox? This fall, for the holidays? Unfortunately my wedding anniversary is this summer so too early to apply it towards the Xbox. (This is the "copper" year, so it would be a perfect gift. )

 

[mattCR]

I think what we've developed though is a different attitude. In the 1980s, people also didn't have bigger screens, BD, etc.

And for a long time before phone and tablet gaming was going on, Nintendo shipped tons of "Gameboy" and "DS" "DSI" etc. The portable platform will always be big.. and it may be bigger than consoles.
But consoles fit a different goal; they excel at being the kind of device you play multiple friends with, large scale games that deserve a big-screen playing surface, etc.

The 1980s crash was largely due to the fact that there was a very limited game base, and the "next generation" console that came after the Atari 2600 didn't really provide very much new.. just slightly prettier versions of the same games, and not very many of them. In that environment, imagine it as though the only new console that came out was the WiiU. Nice for some, but not enough.

 

[Sam Posten]

I don't think we are going to see a crash but as an enthusiast I can say with certainty that there are way too many good games being produced and that the little guys really really really need to do something spectacularly different to get peoples money these days. There are too many stores and too many incompatible DRM schemes and still I'm buying more cheap games than I will ever play in this lifetime.

Good enough no longer is. But if you price it right people will still buy it to have it in their collection.

I don't know if that can last tho.

 

[JohnS]

Xbox Infinity reveal will be on SpikeTV May 21st 10am PST/1pm EST

 

[DaveF]

Ah, soon. Good.

 

[Morgan Jolley]

The reveal is next week but the release will be November at the earliest. There's no point in being sooner and it's going to be rough be later.

In regards to mobile games, there isn't really a lot of money to be made. It is extremely easy to be an indie mobile developer (or even an indie PC developer) so its hard to do something that stands out. Your two options are to make an amazing game for a good price ($10) or an okay game for a great price ($1). What is interesting is that we are seeing the same problem in the mobile space as the console space: the biggest and best games are from huge companies, with the occasional indie or smaller developer striking it big. There's also the shameless sell outs on both platforms, except that means animated movie tie-ins on consoles and a million versions of solitaire on mobile.

Really, mobile is catching on as a fad. The current situation with consoles is nothing like the crash of the 1980s. There's no way a tablet can replace gaming consoles. At most, it would be an additional function or extension of games that are popular on consoles.

Once we have a new round of consoles out for a year or two then we can look at the situation again. I don't see many mobile or indie developers striking it big but games like Tomb Raider and Bioshock Infinite are still selling millions of copies at release.

Also, so long as Call of Duty stays on consoles they will be around.

 

[mattCR]

Well, here's the other answer:

Bioshock Infinity is on track to sell 4.5M units this year; it sold 840k units in it's first month. People will say "but Angry Birds sold MILLIONS of installs".. at .99 cents.

The margin on Bioshock Infinity is $49 before retailers add on. So, you're talking $49M in the first month of income. Sell 4.5M units, and you're talking $225M in earnings. This doesn't even count add on modules purchased, subscriptions, etc.

Yeah, that kind of revenue means it's not going anywhere

 

[DaveF]

Well, here's the other answer: Bioshock Infinity is on track to sell 4.5M units this year; it sold 840k units in it's first month. People will say "but Angry Birds sold MILLIONS of installs".. at .99 cents.

You're off by three orders of magnitude "By May, Rovio games had been downloaded more than 1 billion times — in the 11 months since, that number has increased to 1.7 billion. Monthly active users hit 263 million last December."But I see the point you and Morgan are making. And I agree completely that mobile games do not, so far, offer the experience of a great console game. I love Plants vs Zombies, and spent a good year playing Angry Birds. And World of Goo is almost sublime. But they don't have the experience of a Bioshock. I don't think consoles are going away. The business is too large to just vanish. But it seems it's being diminished by the many alternatives. I think the age of the consoles speaks to this. If the market was in its hayday, their would have been a hardware refresh sooner, because they'd know the sales were there to recoup the loss-leader sales sooner than later.Perhaps it's the reverse: sales are so good even with older hardware, there's no need to put out new consoles.

 

[mattCR]

Dave- That number is mostly comprised though of free downloads, not paid. I can judge that because Rovios net earnings aren't in the billions

 

[Morgan Jolley]

Do you think someone is going to say, "Well, I could buy this INSERT CONSOLE NAME HERE and also INSERT POPULAR GAME FRANCHISE HERE, but I would really rather play Angry Birds on my phone?"

A lot of children are playing games on their parent's phones and tablets. That's why a lot of the top games on those platforms are cheap/free and based on kids movies, Disney properties, are are cartoony. There's no epic RPGs or deep fighting games or atmospheric horror games selling the million or more range. Additionally, not many companies are making the same kind of money as Angry Birds.

Facebook games used to be THE THING for a couple years. Everyone played them and companies like Zynga made a ton of money. But now they are disappearing. The same thing is also happening to World of Warcraft after being a huge game for about 10 years.

Mobile gaming is going to peak and then just become another outlet for gaming. At one point in time, the primary media for entertainment was print. Then print and radio. Then print and radio and film. Then print and radio and film and TV. Then print and radio and film and TV and home video. Then print and radio and film and TV and home video and games. Now, it's all of those plus mobile games, not all of those with games being replaced by mobile games.

 

[Sam Posten]

1 week to go!

 

[DaveF]

Dave-That number is mostly comprised though of free downloads, not paid. I can judge that because Rovios net earnings aren't in the billions

$100M's I think. That includes some unspecified percent from retail tie-ins (stuffed animals and shirts) and their new media (cartoons).

Do you think someone is going to say, "Well, I could buy this INSERT CONSOLE NAME HERE and also INSERT POPULAR GAME FRANCHISE HERE, but I would really rather play Angry Birds on my phone?"

A lot of children are playing games on their parent's phones and tablets. That's why a lot of the top games on those platforms are cheap/free and based on kids movies, Disney properties, are are cartoony. There's no epic RPGs or deep fighting games or atmospheric horror games selling the million or more range. Additionally, not many companies are making the same kind of money as Angry Birds.

Facebook games used to be THE THING for a couple years. Everyone played them and companies like Zynga made a ton of money. But now they are disappearing. The same thing is also happening to World of Warcraft after being a huge game for about 10 years.

Mobile gaming is going to peak and then just become another outlet for gaming. At one point in time, the primary media for entertainment was print. Then print and radio. Then print and radio and film. Then print and radio and film and TV. Then print and radio and film and TV and home video. Then print and radio and film and TV and home video and games. Now, it's all of those plus mobile games, not all of those with games being replaced by mobile games.

My question is: as everyone has bounced from fad to fad the past five or so years, what has happened to console and PC gaming? Has it expanded or shrunk? WIll the next five years bring new fads that pull away from the console market? Or are the fads expanding the total player base, who then 'graduate' to consoles and causing that market to expand.

The scary bit for consoles is that Nintendo has launched a 'next gen' console, and it's not selling like the Wii, not as well as desired. Perhaps Nintendo is no longer represents "consoles", since their next-gen just matches current gen and folks that want Big-N games buy Angry Birds instead (in which case, people do substitute CONSOLE NAME for ANGRY BIRDS). We'll find out in the next year or so as the 720 and PS4 come out.

1 week to go!

Curious what's coming!

 

[Morgan Jolley]

DaveF - Unless you can show something that suggests people are actually saying "Well, I could buy this $350 Wii U, OR I could download Angry Birds for free and get an equivalent experience" then I don't believe what you're saying is true.

The Wii U has several factors going against it, but I don't think the popularity of mobile gaming is one of them. The last year or so haven't been great for consoles, but look at the situation. This is already the longest console cycle in the 30 or so years of major home systems. A lot of games are being held back for the next gen in the fall or for the holidays, so the big releases are fewer and far between. The truly great big releases are still selling well (Bioshock, Tomb Raider). Wii U sales are low because people literally don't know what it is; a big misconception is that the Wii U is just the controller and it is an add-on for the Wii. Nintendo hasn't explained this very well and is also asking for a lot of money ($350) relatively to the Wii (launched at $250, but sold best at $200 or less). They also had the most successful and fastest selling console in history with the Wii, so to repeat that twice in a row is tough. If you look at sales of the NES, SNES, N64, and GameCube, you'll see a steady decline that was completely reversed at the Wii. This is nothing new or unprecedented.

The Wii U also suffered a lot of typical problems for consoles, which is that there's not a lot of good software out for it. No console has had more than 1 or 2 hit games at launch, letalone more than 5 or so in the first 6 months. Also, asking people to buy new hardware when they're perfectly happy with what they have is a tough sell. I expect the PS4 and next Xbox to have trouble when they launch with identical game lineups that are also available on the 360 or PS3 the same day Watch Dogs, Assassin's Creed 4, and any sports game will be on current gen, too).

If mobile gaming (as in cell phone games that are free or dirt cheap) was so great, then why is the 3DS selling so well? It's probably weaker than a Galaxy S3/4 or iPhone 5, doesn't have half the features, doesn't do calls or much in the way of non-gaming media, but it's sold over 30 million units (which, by the way, is more than the first Xbox sold before MS abandoned it for the 360). This is a device that is arguably competing directly with mobile phones and is still doing well for itself. If you want to compare it to mobile phone sales, that's unfair because pretty much everyone has a phone (some have more) but the 3DS is still selling quite well as far as gaming devices go.

I don't see home consoles dying, but if they do it won't be because of stuff like Angry Birds. That's like saying box office ticket sales would die because of Netflix, but tell that to Iron Man 3.

 

[Sam Posten]

DaveF - Unless you can show something that suggests people are actually saying "Well, I could buy this $350 Wii U, OR I could download Angry Birds for free and get an equivalent experience" then I don't believe what you're saying is true.

Some people DO believe that's true Morgan, even if you don't.

http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424127887323398204578489710767303392-lMyQjAxMTAzMDEwOTExNDkyWj.html

While consoles like the Xbox and Sony Corp.'s PlayStation once were focal points of many consumers' living rooms, sales growth of the machines has slowed, and in some cases reversed in recent years. Additionally, Nintendo Co.'s newest game console, the Wii U, which debuted in November, failed to meet sales expectations and led to slashed projections. Sony in February announced its latest PlayStation, which doesn't go on sale until later this year.

Sales of new, packaged game products have shrunk in the U.S. for more than a year, according to research firm NPD Group. In April, sales fell 25% to $495.2 million from $657.5 million a year earlier, NPD said. Console hardware sales dropped 42% to $109.5 million.

"We've seen a dramatic shift in the way people interact with technology, not just related to games," said Andrew House, head of Sony's PlayStation division, in a February interview. "The consumer is changing us."

 

[Morgan Jolley]

To be fair, that's like saying "Sales of the iPhone 3 are down from it's launch." These are old pieces of hardware that are losing steam (much more the case with 360 than PS3) and are about to be replaced after saturating the market. The Wii U is disappointing, but it's only 1 console and has been poorly managed/advertised by Nintendo. I also wouldn't count them out because, well, it's Nintendo.

As for the sales numbers, I don't think it's significant. To say sales are ONLY $500 million (even if down from a year ago) is not a bad thing. The market is also being driven right now by only a handful of big games. Basically, these numbers are out of context and with poor commentary.

 

[mattCR]

Heck, I find the fact that Bioshock sold in major numbers for a console that is now about 8 years old amazing. Do you find many games on your PC you are jumping at that are 8 years on?

Meanwhile, this from Major Nelson:

Speaking on the latest Major Nelson podcast, Microsoft's interactive entertainment chief of staff Aaron Greenberg said that his company will roll out its next-generation video game hardware in two steps — first at a special event held tomorrow at the Redmond, Wash., Microsoft campus, and then at a more game-centric event during the Electronic Entertainment Expo (E3) in June.

"We have so much goodness that there's no way we could have packed it all into one event," Greenberg said.

"The best way I can describe it is: We're really going to tell one story across two events," he added. "So we're going to start on the 21st [of May]; and really that's about revealing the next Xbox platform and our vision for the future of games, the future of entertainment."

Greenberg said that the company "definitely" has "a lot of surprises planned" for tomorrow's event, promising that "people are going to get a great inside look at the making of the new platform and the team that brought it to life."

That being said, the first Xbox reveal is just about "laying the foundation," Greenberg said. (Hopefully that includes showing off all the hardware, something Sony neglected to do at its February PlayStation 4 announcement.)

"Then just a couple weeks later we go to E3," which is "all about games," he added, saying that there will be "tons of exclusives" and "world premieres" of new software.

http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/microsoft-will-unveil-new-xbox-over-two-events-not-one-6C9993958