It's Coming Right At Us!! (1 Viewer)

[Dennis Reno]

On a slightly different note, if this object (or another object) is detected and verified to be on a collision course, what effect on humanity it will have? Something of this nature ignores all socio-economic-religious boundaries!

Given enough time to actually attempt to divert it, will this be the spark that finally ignites 6 billion people to put aside their differences or will panic spread and the "every man for themselves" scenario take place?

 

[Julie K]

I got the impression that they HAVE concluded that it's on a collision course, they're just not sure when it'll happen.

This object is currently ranked as a very real threat. However, the uncertainties in its orbit are very large. Imagine a huge three-dimensional blob in space. This blob is represents the uncertainty in where the asteroid will be at a given time. Right now, the Earth falls within that blob.

Future observations will shrink the blob smaller and smaller. We'll be in trouble if the shrunken blob still intersects with the Earth, but most likely it won't.

 

[MickeS]

Dennis, yeah, that's the most interesting aspect right now (IMO). How will we react if the news come out that in, say, 12 years, for sure, with no uncertainty, this thing will hit earth, and there is no way we can stop it? If there is a slim chance it can be stopped, I think humans are optimistic enough to not care about it too much, hoping it will turn out OK... but what if everyone agrees that "Yup, this is it, there's now way we can do anything about it?"

I have no clue how I would handle it, personally... but I'm guessing that the decline in the stockmarket we've seen recently will look like a ditch compared to the ravine we'll be in if that scenario took place...

/Mike

 

[Julie K]

but I'm guessing that the decline in the stockmarket we've seen recently will look like a ditch compared to the ravine we'll be in if that scenario took place...

Well, best case would be if we pumped massive amounts of money in an attempt to divert or blow up the asteriod.

Worst case would also be the most ironic case of all - we destroy ourselves from blind panic before the asteroid hits.

 

[Max Leung]

What we can do now: Launch an unmanned space probe to intercept the object. NASA does have a pretty decent space probe program going, certainly far more exciting than any of the current manned missions (oooooh they repaired a satellite that provided 100 channels of pornography and reality TV shows!). It shouldn't take more than 6 months to get a new probe ready, perhaps even sooner, if NASA redirects the probes that are already scheduled for launch to intercept.

Studying the object is our best course of action...topographical maps, infrared readings, mass spectrometers, seismic studies, etc. Even if the object is not slated to hit the earth, we can use the knowledge gained for our next encounters with future NEOs.

(Personally, I think our unmanned probe technology far outstrips our manned capabilities by a huge margin.)

 

[Neil Joseph]

Assuming the World's space program got back on track (this is a global issue far beyond NASA), what would be the best way to divert an object of this magnitude? Of course, all it would take is a little nudge if discovered early enough. I was thinking some kind of radioactively powered probes/rockets. In essence, the probes would land on the object, then begin to attach theirselves to the object and fire their "rockets/engines" thus pushing the object off course. One problem would be a comet such as the one in Deep Impact when daytime comes by and destroys the probes. I am kind of aginst the idea of detonating a device because of the possibility of splitting the object into many smaller pieces.

 

[Brian Perry]

Or perhaps the probe could attach itself and then somehow attract "debris" to stick to it. After time, the extra mass might be enough to divert it slightly.

 

[Mike__D]

I would think with the nuclear weapons and knowledge we have, we can redirect efforts for a launch of numerous nuclear missiles at the object in hopes that they will, at the very least, impact it enough to change it's course. This would make the most sense given what we have now, no?

I would think landing objects on a moving asteroid would be much more difficult. We'd have to study the gavity of it, how stable it's surface is, etc... How would we even practice such a difficult task?

 

[BrianW]

It is contradictory, in my opinion, to imbue humanity with the intelligence required to adapt and survive in the aftermath of a global catastrophe and not expect humankind to employ that intelligence to try to avoid or mitigate the catastrophe in the first place. Is not the detection and avoidance of a disaster the very essence of intelligent adaptation?

Dinosaurs weren't as smart and as adaptable as humans. I'm pretty sure we stand a much better chance of survival than they did.

We also stand a much better chance of staving off this disaster than the dinosaurs did. Nowhere is it written that adaptive behavior is limited in scope to that which takes place after a disaster. Why not start now?

 

[Peter McDonald]

We have tens of thousands of nuclear weapons on this planet... this asteroid is only 2km wide. I would be REALLY suprised if nukes couldn't throw that thing off course. One weapon that can absolutely level cities, leaving crators hundreds of feet wide.

Peter

 

[Dennis Reno]

OK, here is the plan:

1) A group of six HTF members get launched to intercept the big rock - myself, Peter, BrianW, MikeD, Brian & Neil (the last six posts)
2) We plant five nuclear devices on the big rock
3) Our plan goes to hell when we realize five of the six will have to stay behind to manually detonate the devices
4) We draw straws. I lose. The rest of the team stays behind to detonate nuclear devices.
5) I return home a hero, greeted by a very horny Liv Tyler

OK, so maybe my wife wouldn't exactly approve of the last step in the plan...

How many days, weeks or months will we have to wait to learn if we are all doomed? Didn't the last "close one" take a few weeks to determine its path?

 

[Peter McDonald]

Liv Tyler... mmmmm

 

[Ken Garrison]

Like the article said. It's too early to tell if it's really gonna hit us or not. There's a good chance it'll miss. When it gets close enough, then we can launch some rockets, full of pan and scan movies, to the astroid and move it aside and blow it up. Dunno if blowing it up would be a good idea, because there might be a chance of the debris hitting the earth. If it's far enough away, it may not hurt much. Best thing to do is move it aside and let it hit some other planet, say, like Venus. We've got pretty good technology. In space, where there's no air friction, it won't take much to move an astroid aside. It'll probably be like moving a Fully loaded school bus with a 2.0 liter 4 cylinder engine. If Nasa can hook up several rockets to one side. As MANY as they can on one side and set them off at the same time for as long as there's fuel, it should be moved aside far enough to miss earth. I'll be 33 years old in 2016. I bet technology will improve by then. Hell, we gotta bunch of Nuclear weapons and shit. Let's send them up there and blast that fucker aside. Well, we got plenty of time to think about it. By 2010, Nasa should start doing something about it.

 

[CharlesD]

There seems to be some serious mis-conceptions about what we are capable of here.
It is not possible to re-direct a probe already in space to flyby this thing. I don't need to know the orbit of this object or of what few probes are out there to be 99.99999999999999% certain of this. The un-manned probes out there have minimal discretionary maneuvering capability, they can only change their trajectories by tiny amounts from their planned course.
To launch a probe that can match course with this object it may well be years before it and the Earth are in suitable positions for us to send something to it with existing technology. Indeed it may not be possible rendez-vous with it until AFTER 2019 with what we have now!
We can not shoot a "nuclear missile" at it and destroy it. Rockets designed to deliver nuclear warheads are designed to hit targets on the Earth's surface. They barely leave the Earth's atmosphere and then only on a sub-orbital trajectory, they do not achieve escape velocity. To hit this object with such a missile, the asteroid would have to already be a few seconds from impact. A direct hit with the missile would do little good.
With existing launch technology we could send a bomb further out, but out launch platforms lift relatively puny payloads, so the bomb+plus rocket motor that escapes from Earth's gravity would not have much capability. It would have to be launched years in advance of the potential impact to reach the asteroid in time to have the nuclear explosion have enough effect. As I mentioned above it may already be too late to do so with existing technology.
Maybe a Saturn V could lift a large enough payload to allow for enough fuel to propel a bomb to the asteroid in less time, but alas we do not now have anything with that sort of payload capability.

 

[CaptDS9E]

Why does it have to hit in 2019? I mean SW comes out on dvd in 2020. Life just isnt fair.

capt

 

[Tim Hoover]

I think I'll chime in with a few wildly divergent thoughts...

Dinosaurs weren't as smart and as adaptable as humans. I'm pretty sure we stand a much better chance of survival than they did.

Realistically speaking, we know next to nothing about the thinking capacity of dinosaurs. We've conjectured that they're big dumb animals, but since soft tissue doesn't survive for long, we don't have an actual brain to examine. We know nothing of any physiological traits that could lead them to adaptation. In short, we know zip about dinosaurs except for a rough idea of what they looked like - even that is cause for debate. And who says humans are smart or adaptable??? My own observations would say the exact opposite - that humanity as a whole is rather dumb, not to mention fearful and resistant to change. I can't think of too many species that feel the need to build an artificial climate-controlled environment in which to live.
As to the timetable for this proposed collision, if we believe the time laid out by the Maya and Aztecs many years ago, the collision date will be December 23, 2012 - the end of the "fifth sun" which is our present epoch. Oddly enough, there are some reliefs at Angkor Wat in Cambodia which seem to say the exact same thing. Now discuss THAT amongst yourselves

 

[Mike__D]

I can't think of too many species that feel the need to build an artificial climate-controlled environment in which to live.

I would not survive the Northeast's humidity if it were not for the greateast invention ever created (in my book anyway), Air Conditioning. I'd like to take the man out for a beer who invented it...
CharlesD,
I do agee we can just have probes redirect themselves, but I'd think given five years, they can create a booster rocket like the old Saturn's, and adapt nuclear warheads to them. By that time, we'll have a good idea of it's orbit, and when would be the right time to launch them. I mean think about, it didn't take us many years to get to the moon and have man walk on it, and that was back in the 60's. I think anything is possible.
For those that haven't seen it, From the Earth to the Moon is one of the greatest mini series I've ever seen. Do yourself a favor, if you are remotely interested in space travel & history, grab a copy! I'm sure there's gotta be a thread devoted to it in the software section.
Mike D.

 

[RobertR]

I can't think of too many species that feel the need to build an artificial climate-controlled environment in which to live.

So you would prefer that we be cold/wet/hot/dirty? Do YOU eschew this climate-controlled environment that you apparently disparage?

It's always fascinating to hear people with such disdain for their own species.

 

[Mike__D]

I'm guessing Tim Hoover was not serious and did say he'd "chime in with a few wildly divergent thoughts..."

I could be wrong though...

EDIT:

Although I just reread his post....

My own observations would say the exact opposite - that humanity as a whole is rather dumb, not to mention fearful and resistant to change.

So who knows? If we are "rather dumb", how'd we get the automobile? If we were resistant to change, wouldn't we still be using horses to get around?

 

[Aaron Copeland]

It is not possible to re-direct a probe already in space to flyby this thing. I don't need to know the orbit of this object or of what few probes are out there to be 99.99999999999999% certain of this. The un-manned probes out there have minimal discretionary maneuvering capability, they can only change their trajectories by tiny amounts from their planned course.

Max was talking about probes yet to be launched. Diverting probe projects underway to a new purpose.

Aaron