I dearly hope I’m wrong in my assessment of the painful course this will take. An early development and distribution of a vaccine will obviously make the world of difference, but failing that this is what I see.
Those nations that have seen a glimmer of hope in reducing the infection rate are actively experimenting with models that trade-off lives against the economy. These models work by attaching a dollar figure to each individual life, so that the scenarios can uniformly be viewed in purely monetary terms. [in Australia, five to ten million dollars is the range of figures being attached to a human life]
Consider that all nations are tapping into their finite reserves - that is if they have any to begin with- to sustain their populace in lockdown. Those that lift restrictions know that significant deaths will ensue. Those that don’t know that it’s only a matter of time before those reserves are depleted, and significant debt, breakdown of infrastructure and poverty follow.
This life vs economy trade-off will play out everywhere, not just in North America. It’s already leading to paralysis in some places, whilst in others it will lead to further outbreaks of death and devastation, as experimentation begins to rollback restrictions to favour the economy.
I can’t think of any crisis in recorded history that has pitted humanity in this way. The initial phase has needed to be national and regional isolation and a focus on independence. For some nations this has been possible, due to the availability of a sufficient range of essential resources. However, the world is not a collection of independent and insulated states. This is bound to have a cascade effect as its devastating effects in many parts of the world begin to take hold and nations are faced with the reality that borders will need to remain closed for extended durations. This will have massive cascade effects across all nations, just as the outbreak itself was an international cascading nightmare.
Unless an effective vaccine is developed and its global distribution reasonably managed in a relatively short timeframe, then the systems and rules of international governance, trade and finance will not see incremental change, but will start disintegrating altogether.
It’s a bleak picture I’m painting, but believe it or not I don’t have a grim outlook. I actually think that this will in the long run force a much greater international collaboration to get us through this crisis and that those bonds, which currently look like they are melting away at a rapid rate, will be strengthened and hold when their imperative need becomes unmistakably clear.
Of course I could be totally wrong in my understanding of all this.
Those nations that have seen a glimmer of hope in reducing the infection rate are actively experimenting with models that trade-off lives against the economy. These models work by attaching a dollar figure to each individual life, so that the scenarios can uniformly be viewed in purely monetary terms. [in Australia, five to ten million dollars is the range of figures being attached to a human life]
Consider that all nations are tapping into their finite reserves - that is if they have any to begin with- to sustain their populace in lockdown. Those that lift restrictions know that significant deaths will ensue. Those that don’t know that it’s only a matter of time before those reserves are depleted, and significant debt, breakdown of infrastructure and poverty follow.
This life vs economy trade-off will play out everywhere, not just in North America. It’s already leading to paralysis in some places, whilst in others it will lead to further outbreaks of death and devastation, as experimentation begins to rollback restrictions to favour the economy.
I can’t think of any crisis in recorded history that has pitted humanity in this way. The initial phase has needed to be national and regional isolation and a focus on independence. For some nations this has been possible, due to the availability of a sufficient range of essential resources. However, the world is not a collection of independent and insulated states. This is bound to have a cascade effect as its devastating effects in many parts of the world begin to take hold and nations are faced with the reality that borders will need to remain closed for extended durations. This will have massive cascade effects across all nations, just as the outbreak itself was an international cascading nightmare.
Unless an effective vaccine is developed and its global distribution reasonably managed in a relatively short timeframe, then the systems and rules of international governance, trade and finance will not see incremental change, but will start disintegrating altogether.
It’s a bleak picture I’m painting, but believe it or not I don’t have a grim outlook. I actually think that this will in the long run force a much greater international collaboration to get us through this crisis and that those bonds, which currently look like they are melting away at a rapid rate, will be strengthened and hold when their imperative need becomes unmistakably clear.
Of course I could be totally wrong in my understanding of all this.
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