Is it time to talk about coronavirus?

The Obsolete Man

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I am so disappointed it's taken this long to get to the three seashells. We've been joking about it at home for weeks.
For a society that's all Taco Bell, they have a lot of faith that their bowel movements will be solid enough to grip with the first two shells.

And to at least minorly tie it into our current situation, Demolition Man did call a couple things, like lack of physical contact, and I'm sure if we had VR sex machines at this point they'd be hugely popular during quarantine
 
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HawksFord

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I’m curious about something.

If someone is sick, maybe diagnosed, maybe not, how are they supposed to get supplies?
Where I am, the county commissioner has been telling people every day to call his office if they are quarantined and need help getting supplies. I don't know how well the process works, but at least the offer is being made.
 

SamT

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I heard SNL has a new episode this week. How on earth is this possible?
 

DaveF

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Recent hot takes on the Sweden model of minimal social quarantining, running counter to whatever most every country is doing.

The Indicator podcast discussed this yesterday
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/09/831325721/why-sweden-isnt-locking-down

I'm just a guy with a spreadsheet connected to the internet. And it doesn't looking like the Swedish approach is working well. But a couple more weeks or a month will tell a fuller story.

I'm using cases per 100k ( Cases / Populations * 100,000) to try and get a fair comparison amongst these neighboring nations.

upload_2020-4-10_12-37-34.png
upload_2020-4-10_12-37-39.png
 

ManW_TheUncool

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Is there any insight into why the relative divergences/variances between infection rates and death rates between those countries?

Can't really tell if what Sweden's doing isn't actually better/preferable, especially based on infection rate instead of death rate. I lean towards "yes, Sweden's approach is preferable" if based only on infection rate. Even if using those death rates, not really so clear since Denmark isn't necessarily doing so much better.

Seems just as likely Sweden could simply do something else better to lower death rates to be more comparable to the others much like their infection rate.

_Man_
 

DaveF

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Yes, I think there may be some takeaways.

Sweden's death rate is 33% higher than Denmark's, and is higher with fewer per capita infections. Sweden also appears to be showing a faster growth rate and might be catching up with Denmark's per capita infection rate.

  1. A month ago, the question was "Why is Sweden doing better than everyone else, with low infections and deaths?" The answer appears to be "exponential growth, so just wait". Swedens's behavior looks similar to everyone else's, no?
  2. This week, the question is, "Sweden isn't social quarantining and their infections and deaths are lower than ours, so isn't that better and shouldn't we do the same?" As of yesterday's numbers, Sweden's per capita infection rate is approaching their neighbors and their per capita death rate is higher than their neighbors. Is this a better model to follow? Maybe, if everyone go to bars and hang out and still the same outcome.
  3. To check that I'm not way off base comparing only to their neighbors, here they are on a graph I made previously to understand USA and NYC compared to the world. They look like the UK and are slightly lower than the US. But of course are way lower than the NYC.

Maybe, contra that, this starts making the case that Sweden is doing no worse than other nations, so why not do as they're doing? Same outcome but people are happier?

upload_2020-4-10_15-54-41.png



We'll learn more in the coming weeks. Sweden's growth rate is exponential. Something happened around 10 days into their surge where the data bends lower. Similar with the other countries. I don't know if that's a testing and reporting issue or if it's something real about the infections growth rate in Scandinavia?

But at present, Sweden is growing as fast or faster than their neighbors. If this continues, there's a case they're doing just fine without social quarantining. If they bend down sooner, that could support the case that their approach is working better. And if the opposite happens and they accelerate, then that will increase the case that not quarantining leads to a worse outbreak.

upload_2020-4-10_16-19-49.png



But in call: The past month has had repeated takes of: Sweden isn't social quarantining and having better outcome. The data currently indicates their outcome is not better.

Again, I'm just a guy with spreadsheet connected to the internet. I'm not seeing social policy. Give me counterpoints to expand my views. Show me differently with your own data analysis. I'm trying test claims against apply readily available data to understand better what is happening in the world and what might be better or worse ideas. :)
 

ManW_TheUncool

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I wouldn't assume what works for Sweden actually works for everywhere else.

I suspect there are some differences about Sweden (and maybe also their neighbors) that may not actually translate easily or at all for all of us here.

Likewise w/ some of the more successful East Asian countries or New Zealand.

I don't subscribe to the IMO overly simplistic presented views and applications typically used by politicians (of seemingly all stripes) and many of their more vocal supporters. They too often tell half-truths (or even outright lie) or present false dichotomies and unreasonably narrow views and/or choices or simply prefer to sacrifice our freedoms and choices for what they happen to supposedly believe best for all at the moment. I understand and accept some of that is likely essentially inevitable/unavoidable, but that doesn't change the truth though... if we actually care to seek the truth...

Anyway, I'm not suggesting our approach has been all wrong even if Sweden is actually successful w/ theirs. We're not Sweden -- almost certainly not all, if any, of the USA anyway.

But if the Swedes are indeed successful (to whatever significant degree), then maybe there's actually more for us to learn from the Swedes than merely copying (just) their exact, immediate approach to such pandemic. Afterall, whatever success of their approach did/does not happen in some vacuum completely void of context... and neither does our outcome... though it's certainly possible none of that makes enough difference...

_Man_
 
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Johnny Angell

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If I may bring up the crass issue of dollars. THIS IS NOT POLITICAL! The stimulus package says couple making $150K or less will get a check for $2400. They will use our last income tax statement to get the info. We are retired, but we are withdrawing from our 401Ks/IRAs and that money is being taxed like regular income. So we “make” well under the $150K. Will we get the check?

Don’t screw this up by arguing about the stimulus plan, just provide me with the facts. Check/No check?
 

Robert Crawford

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Malcolm R

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From what I understand it's all based on recent tax returns, 2019 if you've filed, 2018 if you have not yet filed for last year. If your income on your tax form falls within the eligibility criteria, you should receive the payment.
 
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John Dirk

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I am so disappointed it's taken this long to get to the three seashells. We've been joking about it at home for weeks.
One of my many disappointments with Demolition Man was that they never explained how to use the 3 sea shells. Maybe it was in the special features.
 

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