# Is it time to talk about coronavirus?

#### DaveF

##### Moderator
Moderator
So I'm playing with numbers tonight. Partly to clarify against some comments I got last time.

Of note: death rate of positive cases in NYS rose from about 3.4% to about 3.9%.

First graphs are what I'm calling Case Fatality Rate (CFR) based on the Wikipedia explanation: deaths (in age group) divided by total cases. The age-group percentages sum to an aggregate CFR, or total deaths divided by total cases. This for NYS is close to 4% as of today. These values can be compared between The ratio of this CFR between influenza and COVID-19 to understand how more much or less lethal it is in absolute terms.
In epidemiology, a case fatality rate (CFR) — sometimes called case fatality risk — is the proportion of deaths from a certain disease compared to the total number of people diagnosed with the disease for a certain period of time.
But I've also got a "sub-CFR" which is age group deaths divided by total deaths. This is an expression of relative effect for the different age groups. The age group percentages sum to 100%. These values can be compared between influenza and COVID-19 to understand how they affect different age groups similarly or differently. They are meaningless as an expression of absolute lethality.

A third approach, for which I don't have data, would be to compute age group deaths divided by age group cases. CDC influenza stats give that, but NYS isn't reporting that granularity for COVID-19.

These are my terms. If someone knows the real nomenclature, or can expand on this, I'm interested.

Here's the NYS data that I mangled to compare to influenza data.

#### DaveF

##### Moderator
Moderator
Rate of growth slows

That's getting to be a mess, so this is simple: Doubling time is confirmed cases has increased from 2.4 days to 8.5 days!

Seen in absolute scale with a couple of exponential fits over different durations, we see it's obviously "bending" down.

##### Director
Latest numbers from New York State:

(earlier dates available here)

It's looking like Tuesday was a bit of an outlier, with the number of confirmed cases increasing by an average of a little over 7 percent a day for the last five days.

7,067 confirmed fatalities -- 799 of which occurred just yesterday. Fifteenth consecutive day of triple-digit increases. The death toll from COVID-19 for New York State is now the equivalent of over two and a half 9/11s.

The governor has postponed scheduled wage increases for state workers that were set to go into effect on April 1 for at least 90 days, including for thousands of essential workers putting themselves in harm's way to serve the people of the State of New York during this crisis. I am not personally impacted by this decision, because my bargaining unit has been working without a contract since last April. And I think most state workers, myself included, are just grateful to have a job and a steady paycheck when so many millions of people are out of work. That being said, the thing that is a little infuriating is that the legislature and the governor gave themselves significant raises not too long ago. So it's hard to feel the spirit of shared sacrifice coming from our elected leaders. It also sets a troubling precedent, if the executive chamber can unilaterally void provisions of mutually agreed upon and ratified contracts. We are legally prohibited from going on strike under the terms of the Taylor Law, so we have little in the way of leverage. I would also not be at all surprised if the non-essential state workforce gets furloughed soon.

In other news, I went to my local grocery store, and the situation is still bleak:

#### Carlo Medina

##### Executive Producer
It's got to be a population density thing. West Los Angeles is much the same in terms of no TP supply. But I'm reading other parts of the state that are way less densely populated (which is basically everywhere not the Bay Area or So Cal) have ample supply of TP. If things get bad, I'm driving up to Bakersfield to get some.

#### Josh Steinberg

##### Executive Producer
Reviewer
I have a ridiculously large supply of baby wipes because twins go through a ridiculously large amount. Bought in bulk before this was even on the radar. Worse comes to worse, we can fall back to using those ourselves.

#### TonyD

##### Who do we think I am?
I don’t know how I didn’t always use them.

#### Mark Booth

##### Cinematographer
Great...now here comes the run on Zinc...

Well if it does happen, at least I know I have a new supply of Zicam because I actually use that to great effect to shorten the duration of colds.
The zinc thing is old news. There's been a run on zinc lozenges and any immune system products containing zinc since late February to early March.

Mark

TonyD

#### ManW_TheUncool

##### Producer
Perhaps, it's time for some more momentary relief of a diff sort...

_Man_

PS: Woulda posted this in the other thread, but all the more relevant talk seem to be happening over here lately instead, so...

#### Robert Crawford

##### Moderator
Moderator
I have a ridiculously large supply of baby wipes because twins go through a ridiculously large amount. Bought in bulk before this was even on the radar. Worse comes to worse, we can fall back to using those ourselves.
I haven’t bought a roll of TP since last year.

#### TonyD

##### Who do we think I am?
We use a combo. So both wet and dry.

#### TonyD

##### Who do we think I am?

Yes we use huggies. Bought a big box a few weeks ago.

#### John Dirk

##### Producer
I don’t know how I didn’t always use them.
Wipes are the next best thing to a bidet. I have no further need for TP.

TonyD

#### ManW_TheUncool

##### Producer
May perhaps be TMI, but wouldn't using a combo of TP and wipes be best?

That's what I would do anyway, if running low on TP...

_Man_

TonyD

Reviewer

#### TonyD

##### Who do we think I am?
May perhaps be TMI, but wouldn't using a combo of TP and wipes be best?

That's what I would do anyway, if running low on TP...

_Man_
Its what we do. Start with tp end it with wet wipes.

Among the many crazy topics I’ve heard Stern talk about. This was actually one of them.

#### The Obsolete Man

##### Producer
I've got to say, it may be off the beaten path, but everyone's anal cleansing habits are certainly a wonderful respite from the doom and gloom.

Now,

Who's going to be the first to suggest switching?

ManW_TheUncool

#### The Obsolete Man

##### Producer
Flushable wipes aren't.
On a related note, I wonder how older sewer or septic systems are holding up with people being stuck at home now. In a month's time, will we start hearing of massive sewer issues because of this?

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