Is it time to talk about coronavirus?

DaveF

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...Why is there even an assumption that we would somehow get immunity. While it is hopeful that we might, is there any evidence showing that people who've recovered are now immune?
A little bit.
https://arstechnica.com/science/202...e-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/2/#h6
While the question of immunity remains an open one, some new data suggests that people do develop immunity. A non-peer-reviewed, unpublished study involving four rhesus macaquesfound that after an initial infection with SARS-CoV-2, the monkey developed an adapted, strong immune responses to the virus. After researchers attempted to re-infect two of the monkeys, neither developed disease.
 

Malcolm R

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My local grocery store just sent out an email to its customers that one of their employees tested positive for Covid-19.
We had that here about 10 days ago (rumored to be one of the managers). They closed the store for the remainder of the day, did a "deep cleaning," and were open again at the regular time the next morning.
 

Walter Kittel

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I saw that comparison, and it still is the stupidest thing I've read (ok, not the stupidest), Yes, we should act like we have it, so we don't possibly infect others.

BUT WHY should we act like we don't have it. Why is there even an assumption that we would somehow get immunity. While it is hopeful that we might, is there any evidence showing that people who've recovered are now immune?
Not speaking for Adam, but the main reason to act like we don't have it is to remain vigilant so we do not acquire it. (I agree that more testing / research needs to be conducted to determine post-infection immunity responses.)

It is all well and good to say that we need to protect other folks (which we absolutely should do), but self interest is a powerful motivator and assuming that you haven't become infected is a pretty good reason to maintain social distancing and other protective measures. The other side of the coin being that if you think you are in a post-infection stage, you might be a bit more lax; so best to assume you haven't been exposed.

- Walter.
 

Richard V

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I saw that comparison, and it still is the stupidest thing I've read (ok, not the stupidest), Yes, we should act like we have it, so we don't possibly infect others.

BUT WHY should we act like we don't have it. Why is there even an assumption that we would somehow get immunity. While it is hopeful that we might, is there any evidence showing that people who've recovered are now immune?
I think you miss the point on "act like we don't have it". That does not mean that you should feel you're immune or exempt from precautions. Quite the contrary, it means act is if you are VULNERABLE, that you don't have it yet, but are at risk to get it.
 

DaveF

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I was asked by PM about how why I summed the sub-percentages to get a total percentage as in this chart:
upload_2020-4-6_12-38-24.png


My age-group percentages are Deaths-in-Age-Group divided by Total Cases (This is a crude CFR. The proper CFR would be deaths / resolved cases). The total percentage rate is the Total Deaths divided by Total Cases. So the sub-group percentages add to the total percentage.

Screen Shot 2020-04-06 at 12.39.35 PM.png

If I instead used Deaths-in-Age-Group divided by Cases-in-Age-Group, then I couldn't sum up the percentages. I started off doing that but wound up doing it as described above (percent of the whole) as it made it practical to compare COVID-19 and seasonal flu.

Hope that explains it and is correct enough for current purposes. :) If not, I'll make fixes accordingly.
 

Carlo Medina

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Wow. Hopefully this will start to convince some of the "it's not that serious" holdout camp that, yes indeed, it is serious. Regardless of anyone's political beliefs, best wishes to him and all who are afflicted with this virus for a full recovery.
 

Carlo Medina

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A small study of 12 patients discharged from hospital showed that two or three had reduced lung function. However, it is too early to confirm any long-term effects.
Hopefully this won't be too widespread of a recovery outcome, and that over time the body can heal itself. But it is a worrisome initial discovery.
 
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SamT

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More recent article:

For some survivors, coronavirus complications can last a ‘lifetime’


As the number of worldwide confirmed coronavirus cases climbs towards 1 million, the number of recoveries is thankfully more than four times the death toll. But medical experts told FRANCE 24 that COVID-19 can cause severe long-term damage to the lungs, heart, brain and other organs – and that for some patients, these complications may be permanent.
 

Adam Lenhardt

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Latest numbers from New York State:
Coronavirus_NewYorkState_20200406.png

(earlier dates available here)

4,758 confirmed fatalities -- 599 of which occurred just yesterday. Twelfth consecutive day of triple-digit increases.

The good news: The percentage increase of new positive cases has declined for the third consecutive day, which is looking more and more like a trend rather than a blip. And the daily number of fatalities has stayed pretty level for the last few days.

The governor's daily briefing today included this chart about hospitalization projections:
Coronavirus_NewYorkState_20200406_chart_Hospitalizations.jpg


If the latest projection model (purple) is accurate, New York State is looking at a much lower apex than originally projected.

BUT WHY should we act like we don't have it. Why is there even an assumption that we would somehow get immunity.
Because that's how the immune response to viruses work, except under a couple of conditions that I've discussed previously in this thread.

At this time, there is no reason to believe that either of those conditions applies to COVID-19.
 

Malcolm R

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What do the orange and blue lines represent in the above chart? Just earlier models of some best/worst scenario?
 
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Adam Lenhardt

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What do the orange and blue lines represent in the above chart? Just earlier models of some best/worst scenario?
The orange line represents the projection from the earlier model if the state hadn't enacted any mitigation policies to reduce the spread. The blue line represents the best case scenario from the earlier model.
 
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DaveF

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https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

This is the IHME public projections site. I’ve belatedly learned this has become the de facto model for any state that can’t afford its own modeling effort. There are some critiques it’s too optimistic. Everyone agrees, AFAIK, that no single model should be used by itself and this one combined with others is useful.

Personally, I don’t find it super useful as a lay person, but that’s because I’m not paying attention to hospital equipment shortages. But if you’ve not seen it and are into the numbers and models, give it a look. It’s updated every Monday, I think.
 

DaveF

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Robert Crawford

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There is little doubt they're under counting the count as to how many people actually died due to the root cause being Covid-19.
 

David Weicker

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The accuracy of the death count assumes that
a) each non-identified death is tested post-mortem
b) post-mortem tests work (no reason to think that a live specimen reacts the same as a dead one)
c) that persons who die while infected actually died because of COVID 19 (might have died anyway - with or without virus)
 

DaveF

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There is little doubt they're under counting the count as to how many people actually died due to the root cause being Covid-19.
I knew we're undercounting. The frightening part is the possibility we're *way* undercounting, like by 5x! That potential is new, at least to me.

In northern Italy, the town of Nembro recorded 31 deaths from the virus from January to March. But Mayor Claudio Cancelli recently said the total number of deceased in that time period — 158 — was four times higher than the average for that time of year.

“The difference is enormous and cannot be a simple statistical deviation,” he wrote in a newspaper article co-authored with a medical executive.

The number of deaths in France attributed to the virus soared last week after officials began including previously unreported deaths in nursing homes, boosting the count by more than 2,000.
 

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