Is it time to talk about coronavirus?

ManW_TheUncool

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Sweden is starting to take their heads out of the sand (took ‘em long enough). Why one place after another (of all political stripes) has neglected to take the right steps early on when they have horrendous examples of what can happen based on neighboring countries/states is a question that begs to be answered (and not by “you can’t cure stupid” that shows up in far too many newspaper column comments). Two week lag and exponential growth is a recipe for dire results when mixed with magical thinking.
Probably largely just human nature.

Pretty much everyone doesn't want merely to be told exactly what to do, but find/figure out for oneself to some extent... perhaps especially when facing tough choices... because we all desire to be free and independent (enough) and be in the driver's seat of our own destiny. How exactly that happens may vary -- and it's not always perfectly consistent from people to people... even moment to moment... as we're not perfectly programmed robots afterall.

And truth is there's STILL plenty of unknowns it seems... including how devastating the "lockdowns" will be to our futures depending on how long this all lasts...

Nobody wants to say/mention it, but maybe this is all just part of "evolution" and nature/ecology taking its course despite our best human interventions no matter what we actually do...

_Man_
 

Robert Crawford

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perhaps especially when facing tough choices... because we all desire to be free and independent (enough) and be in the driver's seat of our own destiny.
The problem is that each of us could potentially be carriers of this deadly virus so we can affect the destiny of other people beyond our own family.
 

Carlo Medina

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The problem is that each of us could potentially be carriers of this deadly virus so we can affect the destiny of other people beyond our own family.
That's the thing that is the large unknown...and I can't get a super straight answer on because it's such a developing situation. Initially the worry was that people who were asymptomatic could transmit it, with the implication that once they were symptomatic (even if it was a mild reaction) that you could backwards-trace where they'd been to identify who could be at risk.

But now there's a growing belief that an unknown percentage of people never show symptoms. Which on one hand is somewhat hopeful in that I would love to be in that category, but on the other hand very scary because it means if someone is never symptomatic, they could just be spreading it without ever knowing it, and without ever bothering to be tested because, if you feel perfectly normal, why would you have a COVID test?

Hopefully the medical and biological community get a better understanding soon, and perhaps even develop a test to see 1) if you've ever had it, 2) if you have antibodies, and 3) how long those antibodies will protect you in the future. All of this while, of course, working on a vaccine.

Let's hope this gets more young people interested in getting into STEM fields of learning!
 
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TJPC

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I wonder if it would be possible for people who have recovered from the virus to be immune enough now to volunteer in hospitals? Didn’t I read that in Germany is going to give a certificate to those who are recovered?
 

Sam Posten

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I
2CE60EA4-F7F2-43EE-8479-D790E42739F8.jpeg
now know how that book lover guy in the Twilight Zone episode felt when he broke his glasses. Dozens of board games including new ones to try out, no way to play em in social isolation
 

ManW_TheUncool

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Hopefully the medical and biological community get a better understanding soon, and perhaps even develop a test to see 1) if you've ever had it, 2) if you have antibodies, and 3) how long those antibodies will protect you in the future. All of this while, of course, working on a vaccine.
Not sure where they are at the moment, particularly for USA, eg. FDA approval, actual govt strategy/policy, etc, but there have been at least a couple different such serological tests developed and being used elsewhere in the world.

Just did a quick google, and apparently, FDA has just recently approved one such test...

https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/fda-approves-first-serology-test-for-coronavirus/

https://www.vox.com/science-and-hea...us-cdc-blood-test-immunity-serological-cellex

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-02/coronavirus-test-immunity-detection-accuracy

_Man_
 

Wayne_j

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Borris Johnson admitted to a hospital supposedly as a precaution.
 

Tino

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Aww

Lee Fierro, ‘Jaws’ Actor, Dies of Coronavirus at 91


Lee Fierro, an actor best known for playing Mrs. Kintner in “Jaws,” has died of complications from coronavirus, according to The Martha’s Vineyard Times. She was 91.

A resident of Martha’s Vineyard, Mass., Fierro had been living at an assisted care facility in Ohio when she died.

Fierro’s character was the mother to Alex Kintner (Jeffrey Voorhees), the second victim of the great white shark in “Jaws.” In the 1975 film, her son was attacked off the shore of Amity Island, and she walks up to police chief Brody (Roy Scheider) and slaps him in a memorable scene. She also reprises her role as the character in “Jaws: The Revenge” in 1987.

https://variety.com/2020/film/news/lee-fierro-jaws-dead-dies-coronavirus-1234571541/
 

TonyD

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Cranston I saw what you posted before it got deleted. You’re right Sorry.

Nfl kicker Tom Dempsey who was the first player to kick a field goal of 63 yards died this weekend of the virus.
I believe he was 73.
 
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ManW_TheUncool

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Adam Lenhardt

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Latest numbers from New York State:
Coronavirus_NewYorkState_20200405.png

(earlier dates available here)

4,159 confirmed fatalities -- 594 of which occurred just yesterday. Eleventh consecutive day of triple-digit increases.

Two possibly encouraging notes: The percentage increase of new positive cases continues to decline, and the number of fatalities reported, while grim, is actually down slightly from the day before.

The NYS Department of Health has also provided a breakdown of the deaths by age for the first time:
Coronavirus_NewYorkState_20200405_chart_Fatalities.png

While the deaths are predominantly concentrated in people over 50, there are still plenty of people under fifty who have died from this virus.

But now there's a growing belief that an unknown percentage of people never show symptoms. Which on one hand is somewhat hopeful in that I would love to be in that category, but on the other hand very scary because it means if someone is never symptomatic, they could just be spreading it without ever knowing it, and without ever bothering to be tested because, if you feel perfectly normal, why would you have a COVID test?
I've heard COVID-19 described as Schrödinger's virus, because much like Schrödinger's feline thought experiment, the vast majority of us who haven't had a positive test result have to behave like we both have the virus and have never had the virus at the same time.

We have to act like we have the virus because we could be non-symptomatic and might spread the virus without knowing it, but we also have to act like we've never had the virus because we can't have any expectation of immunity and could catch it at any time.

In my personal case, the odds are very high that I did have the virus. But without an antibody test, I can't be sure.
 
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Richard V

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Latest numbers from New York State:
View attachment 70707
(earlier dates available here)

I've heard COVID-19 described as Schrödinger's virus, because much like Schrödinger's feline thought experiment, the vast majority of us who haven't had a positive test result have to behave like we both have the virus and have never had the virus at the same time.

We have to act like we have the virus because we could be non-symptomatic and might spread the virus without knowing it, but we also have to act like we've never had the virus because we can't have any expectation of immunity and could catch it at any time.
This is actually the best way to approach the virus. Behave like you have it, to protect others, and behave like you don't have it to protect yourself.
 

DaveF

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Latest numbers from New York State:
(earlier dates available here)
That got me looking at NY per se and per capita numbers. I knew that US has become the world epicenter. I didn't appreciate that New York State, unto itself, had overtaken China's numbers and will probably exceed Italy this week.

upload_2020-4-6_9-17-36.png


Two weeks ago, maybe even a week ago, the mantra among deniers included "per capita, we're fine." Well, per capita, the US is not fine. And NY is really high. (Note percentages are 100x for easy numbers.)

upload_2020-4-6_9-13-57.png
 
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DaveF

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That leads to me estimating case fatality rate by age groups for comparison. While I feel confident on curve fits to JHU confirmed cases data, take the following with a grain of salt as I'm way outside my domain knowledge. :)

The data @Adam Lenhardt shared has been updated with more granularity:
(New York State Department of Health Fatalities by County and Age Group)
upload_2020-4-6_10-38-47.png


A crude Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of about 3.4% is computed with their confirmed positive cases as of Apr 4: 122,031.

upload_2020-4-6_10-38-55.png


Find the CDC Influenza data and compute CFR of about 0.12%. (I think 2020 was worse but I didn't find that data.)
upload_2020-4-6_10-40-32.png


I crudely binned the NYS data into the CDC's age groups to guesstimate this comparison illustrating that COVID-19 data continues to show it is >10x more dangerous, from current testing. If we get more testing hopefully this will come down. But we need to find that there are not an extra 30% mild/asymptomatic cases out there, but 1,000% more to make this look like the flu.
upload_2020-4-6_10-42-26.png
 
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David Weicker

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I've heard COVID-19 described as Schrödinger's virus, because much like Schrödinger's feline thought experiment, the vast majority of us who haven't had a positive test result have to behave like we both have the virus and have never had the virus at the same time.

We have to act like we have the virus because we could be non-symptomatic and might spread the virus without knowing it, but we also have to act like we've never had the virus because we can't have any expectation of immunity and could catch it at any time.

In my personal case, the odds are very high that I did have the virus. But without an antibody test, I can't be sure.
I saw that comparison, and it still is the stupidest thing I've read (ok, not the stupidest), Yes, we should act like we have it, so we don't possibly infect others.

BUT WHY should we act like we don't have it. Why is there even an assumption that we would somehow get immunity. While it is hopeful that we might, is there any evidence showing that people who've recovered are now immune?
 

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