Is it time to talk about coronavirus?

Cranston37

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It's hard to keep track of what monster said what monstrous thing yesterday let alone a few weeks ago but the horrific idea of "Old people will have to die so their grandchildren don't have to live with a bad economy" was definitely said by people on national TV. No doubt people that selfish more specifically meant that other people's parents or grandparents will have to die and not theirs.
I'm not saying I disagree, but I do want to play devil's advocate here...

Whenever I hear this argument my first thought is that if we were to transition to that model, what is stopping your parents or grandparents from continuing to self quarantine as long as they want?

They wouldn't be forced to leave their house. Let me and others my age go back to work, and if that older generation wants to continue a lock down for themselves then go for it.

Thoughts?
 
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Adam Lenhardt

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They wouldn't be forced to leave their house. Let me and others my age go back to work, and if that older generation wants to continue a lock down for themselves then go for it.

Thoughts?
Much steeper curve, far more American deaths, ultimately far more harm to the economy.
 

SamT

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Jeez. COVID-19 kills people of all ages, of all backgrounds. Even if you don't die, 20% go to hospital. Extremely unpleasant experience. Even if you recover, you will not be good as new, your lungs will be damaged and never good as before. Even if you are in the rest, 80%, it will be an unpleasant experience for some. Also at one point I suppose you want to see your parents and grand parents. Can't lock them up forever.
 

Cranston37

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Much steeper curve, far more American deaths, ultimately far more harm to the economy.
I understand why we're doing what we're doing and I agree with it. I am not questioning the stay at home order for the entire population.

The discussion had been going in the direction of "letting grandma and grandpa die" and I am specifically asking about how going to that model automatically means death rates for seniors would go up, because seniors would not be forced to end their self quarantine. They would continue doing exactly what they're doing right now.

I'm trying to find out what factor would change for them that would cause their death rates to raise.
 
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Cranston37

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Also at one point I suppose you want to see your parents and grand parents. Can't lock them up forever.
But that's the way it is now as well...
 

Steve Christou

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The lunatic fringe are on the loose, linking coronavirus to 5G technology and attacking UK phone masts.

"there is absolutely no credible evidence of a link between 5G and the coronavirus"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52164358
 

John Dirk

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My response was to the entry before mine. It stated that the person could not believe that this virus could happen in the USA. My point was, I guess, is that some Americans should realize that they are part of the world. I am getting concerned by the isolationist sentiment that many are now adopting.
Since I responded in kind to the original post I felt it only fair to respond to this one. I would totally agree with both relevant portions if they read "some people" instead of "Americans" or "many in the world" instead of many in the US. I didn't see the comment as being directed to an individual since it did not quote one.

Personally, I do believe America is the greatest country in the world, all things considered, and I'm unapologetic about it. If you disagree I both understand and respect your opinion.That said, this is certainly not our best period in history and I don't mean any disrespect to other countries or individuals.
 

DaveF

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I'm not saying I disagree, but I do want to play devil's advocate here...

Whenever I hear this argument my first thought is that if we were to transition to that model, what is nothing stopping your parents or grandparents from continuing to self quarantine as long as they want?

They wouldn't be forced to leave their house. Let me and others my age go back to work, and if that older generation wants to continue a lock down for themselves then go for it.

Thoughts?
@Adam Lenhardt put it well: The current consensus is this will kill more people, harm the economy.

But to say more words about it: There are multiple unstated assumptions in this view that need to be brought out:
  • Your assuming it’s just the old. But it’s everyone at risk which includes a bunch of young and middle aged people who are immuno-compromised or have other health limitations that increase the risks from the pandemic
  • You’re assuming that everyone can go back to work, to movies, to religious services, to sports, to spending time with friends and family...Except this sub-group of high risk. That’s not how people work. Those back to life will explicitly and implicitly pressure the at risk to resume life (hey, mom, can’t you babysit for us like usual?) and those at risk will see everyone back to life and they’ll join in too, because they’re people.
  • It seems implicit that these old people have no life regardless, they just sit at home being old. But they’re in the work force. When everyone’s back to work, are the old people who don’t come fired? They have to go grocery shopping. They have to go shopping. They’re now exposed because no one is keeping 6’, wearing masks, cleaning the checkout belts, having special seniors shopping hours.
With data and care and leadership and focused federal stimulus bills, I think there could be an approach using punctuated social quarantines and maybe managed sub-group quarantines.

But it’s not this “everyone go back to life, old people stay at home to die, and we’ll hope to sort it out later”.
 

ManW_TheUncool

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With data and care and leadership and focused federal stimulus bills, I think there could be an approach using punctuated social quarantines and maybe managed sub-group quarantines.

But it’s not this “everyone go back to life, old people stay at home to die, and we’ll hope to sort it out later”.
Certainly a tightrope act in all. And I do not envy those in positions to make such decisions for the masses even though I may disagree w/ them (to varying degrees) often enough (or possibly even disagree w/ the whole paradigm behind some of these decisions, positions or even institutions/systems perhaps).

For me, the main expectation of them is simply that they do their best w/ all sincerity. I can't realistically expect anymore than that... though that doesn't mean I (or anyone else) needs to sit/stand-by idly waiting for everything to be done for me either of course...

And yes, in a very real and general sense, we are all indeed in this together...

_Man_

PS: To be clear, I did not mean this post as criticism of Dave's post at all nor only as reply to Dave, but simply as follow-up to that particular line of discussion...
 

Walter Kittel

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I'm not saying I disagree, but I do want to play devil's advocate here...

Whenever I hear this argument my first thought is that if we were to transition to that model, what is nothing stopping your parents or grandparents from continuing to self quarantine as long as they want?

They wouldn't be forced to leave their house. Let me and others my age go back to work, and if that older generation wants to continue a lock down for themselves then go for it.

Thoughts?
The whole idea behind the shelter in place order is to suppress the spread of COVID-19.

If it is known that:

a) The antibody test can determine if someone has experienced and recovered from COVID-19.
b) Once you have recovered and are virus free you are no longer a carrier.

Then by all means those who have COVID-19 antibodies and are virus free should be permitted to go back to work and something approaching a 'normal' life. (Of course, I am not sure how that could be administered. ??)

Anyone else, (outside of 'essential' occupations of course) regardless of their age or health status needs to stay at home to reduce the spread of the virus and the attendant strain on our health care system and medical personnel. It isn't about any one individual's potential risk to their health. It is about minimizing the risks to the entirety of society.

- Walter.
 
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Mark Booth

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The lunatic fringe are on the loose, linking coronavirus to 5G technology and attacking UK phone masts.

"there is absolutely no credible evidence of a link between 5G and the coronavirus"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52164358
The biggest factor regarding the spread of the virus is education and intelligence. The more idiots you have, the more likely it will continue to spread even when most are practicing social distancing and stay-at-home.

We can't fix stupid.

Mark
 

Mike2001

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Problem is that we don’t know how long immunity might last with this virus. It could be a few months like the cold virus or it could be life long. There is no definitive data yet, although there are a handful of anecdotal reports of people being re-infected.
 

Mark Booth

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San Diego County has a little over 1,200 confirmed cases and, so far, 18 deaths. I'm pretty sure at least 8 of those deaths were people under the age of 50, including one 20-something with no underlying conditions.

Of those 1,200 confirmed cases, 874 of them are aged 20 to 49.

Mark
 

Malcolm R

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Problem is that we don’t know how long immunity might last with this virus. It could be a few months like the cold virus or it could be life long. There is no definitive data yet, although there are a handful of anecdotal reports of people being re-infected.
I believe WHO has said there are two strains of the virus circulating, though from what I've heard most of the cases in the US are supposed to be a single strain. So it's possible these people could have encountered two different strains.

Given how the symptoms come and go suddenly for some people, it's also possible these people were not truly recovered but just expereinced a lull in their symptoms that came back again.
 
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John Dirk

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Then by all means those who have COVID-19 antibodies and are virus free should be permitted to go back to work and something approaching a 'normal' life. (Of course, I am not sure how that could be administered. ??)
Not commenting on the actual issue being discussed here but there is some irony. In my case I would love to stay home as I normally work from home and am accustomed to it. Since the pandemic , however, I have been logging 12-hour days in places full of sick people. So we have many being forced to stay home who would rather be working and some [or am I the only one :unsure:] who are working harder than ever now in at-risk environments and would rather be at home.
 
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Mike2001

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Not commenting on the actual issue being discussed here but there is some irony. In my case I would love to stay home as I normally work from home and am accustomed to it. Since the pandemic , however, I have been logging 12-hour days in places full of sick people. So we have many being forced to stay home who would rather be working and some [or am I the only one :unsure:] who are working harder than ever now in at-risk environments and would rather be at home.
After I retired, my old work place twisted my arm to come back as a consultant to do mentoring for some younger engineers. I arranged after school care for my kids on Tuesdays and Thursdays and went in to the office on Tuesdays with Thursdays available if they had a pressing need. Once my kids were sent home (mid-March), I told the office that I would be consulting from home but no longer had kid constraints for my hours. As a result, ironically, I am also working more hours since things hit the fan (fortunately not 12 hour days though!). And John, stay safe!

My old work place is a defense contractor. They are considered essential workers so still have to go into the office.
 

Cranston37

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The whole idea behind the shelter in place order is to suppress the spread of COVID-19.

If it is known that:

a) The antibody test can determine if someone has experienced and recovered from COVID-19.
b) Once you have recovered and are virus free you are no longer a carrier.

Then by all means those who have COVID-19 antibodies and are virus free should be permitted to go back to work and something approaching a 'normal' life. (Of course, I am not sure how that could be administered. ??)

Anyone else, (outside of 'essential' occupations of course) regardless of their age or health status needs to stay at home to reduce the spread of the virus and the attendant strain on our health care system and medical personnel. It isn't about any one individual's potential risk to their health. It is about minimizing the risks to the entirety of society.

- Walter.
You have completely misread the intent of my post and the very specific question it was asking.

I have never demonstrated a lack of understanding in any of what you wrote and even said a few posts back - "I understand why we're doing what we're doing and I agree with it. I am not questioning the stay at home order for the entire population."

No point in trying to clarify my original question again. Moving on...
 
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ManW_TheUncool

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You have completely misread the intent of my post and the very specific question it was asking.

...

No point in trying to clarify my original question again. Moving on...
I think I follow where you're trying to go w/ that, but I'm guessing not too many want/care to "entertain" the notions/alternatives too much right now and prefer to just stick w/ the program (and whatever "known facts" and "official conclusions") at least for now...

Probably part of that is just frustration w/ how so many (outside of HTF anyway) are still being rather contrarian/defiant or lax about getting w/ the program. And part of that is dealing w/ the concerns/fears and stress of the situation still seemingly w/ too many unknowns, variability, etc and not enough apparent "light at the end of the tunnel"...

Peace...

_Man_
 

Adam Lenhardt

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Problem is that we don’t know how long immunity might last with this virus. It could be a few months like the cold virus or it could be life long. There is no definitive data yet, although there are a handful of anecdotal reports of people being re-infected.
While we won't know for sure for some time, the vast majority of the currently available evidence points to this being much more like smallpox or Hepatitis B in that:
  1. Most importantly, it is relatively stable, with a very low rate of mutation. There are less than a dozen genetic differences between the virus's original form when it was first identified in Wuhan and the strains that are currently circulating. That greatly increases the likelihood that a single vaccine would be effective. By contrast, influenza viruses have a very high rate of mutation, which is why each year's flu shot triggers an immune response for several different strains, and antibodies are less effective over time as the various strains continue to mutate over time. It's not that the immune response becomes less effective against the original virus, it's that the virus becomes sufficiently different that the body no longer recognizes it.

  2. The immune response seems to be slow enough to result in long-term immunological memory. When the body mounts an immune response against an antigen, it creates memory T helper cells and B cells to train to identify the invader so it can be targeted. These cells last a long time after the immune response has ended, but new ones are created either very slowly or not at all. The general thinking is that the faster the infection is defeated, the fewer memory cells are created in the first place. If too few memory cells are created during the initial immune response, the immunity will be lost in a matter of years due to sheer attrition. People with COVID-19 had high viral loads over a long period of time, which seems promising for lifelong immunity. We won't know for sure until anamnestic response can be tested after enough years have passed. But worst case scenario, we're talking about something like tetanus where you need a booster shot once every several years. Still a far better situation than the seasonal flu.
 

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