Is it time to talk about coronavirus?

Mark Booth

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California lead the nation by enacting a statewide stay-at-home order. Now San Diego County is leading California by enacting a countywide MANDATORY mask requirement for any worker that faces the public. Grocery stores, pharmacies, gas stations, fast food drive-thru windows, etc. The masks can be made of cloth but employees must wear them at all times when dealing with the public. The mask requirement starts on Saturday. Violators are subject to up to a $1,000 fine and 6 months in jail.

Further, County Public Health is recommending that EVERYONE wear a mask when out in public.

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/lo...an-diego-countys-public-health-order/2298442/

San Diego County just became a bit safer place to live.

Mark
 
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Adam Lenhardt

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Latest numbers from New York State:
Coronavirus_NewYorkState_20200402.png

(earlier dates available here)

2,373 confirmed fatalities -- 432 of which occurred just yesterday. Eighth consecutive day of triple-digit increases.

Every county in New York State now has at least one confirmed case of COVID19.

Governor Cuomo anticipates that demand for ventilators will exceed the state's available supply in just six days. If that prediction comes true, the number of deaths will likely skyrocket as New York hospitals have to make Italy-style decisions about who will live and who will die given the constraints of available resources.

IHME is now predicting over 16,000 deaths in New York State alone before the end of the month.

60 minutes did a news report two weeks ago where they visited a lab that was working on a vaccine.

For the most part, it was suggested that at the earliest, we are a year away from a vaccine.
It's not creating the vaccine that's the problem. Indeed, vaccines for COVID19 have already been created. The time consuming part is the multi-stage vaccine trials that must occur after the vaccine has been created.

Phase 1 of the trial makes sure that the vaccine is safe. Before they worry about whether the vaccine actually works, they have to make sure that it doesn't have any unforeseen serious adverse side effects like cytokine storms, fever, seizures, or even enhanced susceptibility to the very infection it is trying to prevent. The medical professionals know that vaccine skepticism among the public is at an all-time high, and the damage that would be caused by letting an unsafe vaccine on the market would have catastrophic consequences for public health policy well beyond this one pandemic.

Phase 2 of the trial commences once the vaccine has been confirmed to be safe. A small number of people (generally less than a thousand) are given the vaccine and tracked over several months. The lower the rate of infection, the more promising the vaccine. This phase also looks for any side effects that were missed in the first phase of the trial.

Phase 3 of the trial scales up the testing to a much larger population. Vaccine testing is much trickier than regular pharmaceutical testing, because the trial is essentially trying to prove a negative: The vaccine is effective if the inoculated population does not get infected by the virus. Obviously, it would be unethical to inject test subjects with a potentially fatal virus to test an unproven vaccine. So what they do instead is a double-blind system with two very large groups with roughly similar characteristics. One group gets the vaccine, the other group gets a placebo. Then they track both groups over several more months, as they live their normal lives. If the infection rate for the vaccine group is substantially lower than the infection rate for the placebo group, they know they have a safe and effective vaccine.
 
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Robert Crawford

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Latest numbers from New York State:
View attachment 70568
(earlier dates available here)

2,373 confirmed fatalities -- 432 of which occurred just yesterday. Eighth consecutive day of triple-digit increases.

Every county in New York State now has at least one confirmed case of COVID19.

Governor Cuomo anticipates that demand for ventilators will exceed the state's available supply in just six days. If that prediction comes true, the number of deaths will likely skyrocket as New York hospitals have to make Italy-style decisions about who will live and who will die given the constraints of available resources.

IHME is now predicting over 16,000 deaths in New York State alone before the end of the month.


It's not creating the vaccine that's the problem. Indeed, vaccines for COVID19 have already been created. The time consuming part is the multi-stage vaccine trials that must occur after the vaccine has been created.

Phase 1 of the trial makes sure that the vaccine is safe. Before they worry about whether the vaccine actually works, they have to make sure that it doesn't have any unforeseen serious adverse side effects like cytokine storms, fever, seizures, or even enhanced susceptibility to the very infection it is trying to prevent. The medical professionals know that vaccine skepticism among the public is at an all-time high, and the damage that would be caused by letting an unsafe vaccine on the market would have catastrophic consequences for public health policy well beyond this one pandemic.

Phase 2 of the trial commences once the vaccine has been confirmed to be safe. A small number of people (generally less than a thousand) are given the vaccine and tracked over several months. The lower the rate of infection, the more promising the vaccine. This phase also looks for any side effects that were missed in the first phase of the trial.

Phase 3 of the trial scales up the testing to a much larger population. Vaccine testing is much trickier than regular pharmaceutical testing, because the trial is essentially trying to prove a negative: The vaccine is effective if the inoculated population does not get infected by the virus. Obviously, it would be unethical to inject test subjects with a potentially fatal virus to test an unproven vaccine. So what they do instead is a double-blind system with two very large groups with roughly similar characteristics. One group gets the vaccine, the other group gets a placebo. Then they track both groups over several more months, as they live their normal lives. If the infection rate for the vaccine group is substantially lower than the infection rate for the placebo group, they know they have a safe and effective vaccine.
Adam,

How you're feeling now?
 
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Adam Lenhardt

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How you're feeling now?
Each of the last three days have been better than the last. I'm working 10+ hours a day from home to make up for the lost time.

Still a lot of mucus, still more diarrhea than usual, but the cough is nearly gone and my energy levels are much better.
 

Robert Crawford

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Each of the last three days have been better than the last. I'm working 10+ hours a day from home to make up for the lost time.

Still a lot of mucus, still more diarrhea than usual, but the cough is nearly gone and my energy levels are much better.
With the cough being nearly gone, you should be able to sleep better?
 
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Adam Lenhardt

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With the cough being nearly gone, you should be able to sleep better?
Fingers crossed. I think the lack of a fixed routine has done more to disrupt my sleep than the illness, to be honest. Also, the lack of exercise.

Fortunately, after tomorrow I get two days where I can sleep in.
 

Carlo Medina

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Best wishes for a full recovery, Adam. I'm glad to see you're doing better!
 
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SamT

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How effective is Darth Vader's mask against COVID-19? Would be fun to see some people with that!
 

Wayne_j

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And San Diego Comic-Con is still stupidly being planned. Even if movie theaters are open then being around 300 people is much better than being around 100,000 people.
 

Carlo Medina

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And San Diego Comic-Con is still stupidly being planned. Even if movie theaters are open then being around 300 people is much better than being around 100,000 people.
Ironic given how they've kept fairly well abreast of the latest recommendations to keep people safe. I get that Comic-Con is nearly four full months away, but it's still super optimistic.
 

TravisR

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I'd be shocked if San Diego Comic Con doesn't get cancelled. If they do, there's a silver lining in that no celebrity is going to show up there so attendance will be down by about 99.9999999999999999% so may be they can actually focus on comic books this year.
 

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Carnegie Hall just canceled the rest of their current season plus whatever concerts/events thru July -- previously, they only canceled thru May 10 or so. They're also working to get streaming access going under the circumstance, which they didn't have at all before -- pretty sure they do have all concerts recorded at least for archival purpose at least in recent years.

Wonder if there will be some sort of online global Beethoven celebration event (for his 250th "birth year") under the circumstance -- think they did something like that w/ Beethoven's 9th not long ago... but of course, they can't do quite the same in foreseeable future... unless maybe much later this year perhaps...

_Man_
 
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SamT

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Richard V

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I'm very late to the party on this thread, but will state up front, that I AM A DOCTOR. Any opinions you get from me will be rooted in scientific facts or theories to be best of my knowledge. I am a member of a Facebook Group of health professionals around the world trying to share best practices and most up to date information available. Thanks.
 

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The major theatrical group in Toronto (Mirvish) has cancelled everything until June 30th. I guess it seems petty now, but it means our hard one tickets to “Hamilton” are kaput. At least we’re getting a refund.
 

Adam Lenhardt

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Latest numbers from New York State:
Coronavirus_NewYorkState_20200403.png

(earlier dates available here)

2,935 confirmed fatalities -- 562‬ of which occurred just yesterday. Ninth consecutive day of triple-digit increases.

New York State has hit a grim milestone: More New Yorkers have now died from COVID-19 than died on 9/11.

Amid a statewide shortage, Governor Cuomo announced today that he will be deploying the National Guard to seize ventilators from upstate hospitals and redistribute them to downstate hospitals.

The United States has become the first country with over a quarter of a million recorded cases of COVID-19, more than double any other country. By just about every quantifiable measure, the United States has had a worse response than any other country.
 
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Malcolm R

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Robert Crawford

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My guess is that they'll comply. All of the hospitals in the state need the governor too much right now to risk crossing him.
We're all in this together!:)
 

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