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Discussion in 'After Hours Lounge (Off Topic)' started by Ronald Epstein, Feb 25, 2020.
I’m more with Dr. Drew.
. I thought of that, but I think it is already reflected in the death rate. The other mitigating factor would be that the flu initially infected soldiers in tight barrack conditions right as they were shipping out to France, so the disease breakout was highly exacerbated by the war conditions. But once it has broken out, it has broken out. That is why it is so important to try and keep it bottled up at this stage.
Responses to the 1918 Flu epidemic may have made things worse. Apparently they prescribed massive doses of aspirin which killed the patients. https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/49/9/1405/301441
Let me put this thread back on track...
The idea was to attempt to talk about Coronavirus and how it is affecting our lives and communities as this virus has the potential to spread quickly.
I can see that in a very short time, we may actually have people we know affected by this virus.
At some point, we could be talking about the precautions we are taking personally through our day-to-day interactions.
It's still early in the game, but all indications are this is going to get much worse than better.
I can tell you that I froze my assets in the market until further notice. Not going to see my life savings swept away by this continued downturn.
Those are the kind of things we can talk about.
I didn't want vaccinations and whether they are right or wrong brought into this conversation. That's getting political and a violation of our rules.
I also understand there may be differing opinions of how well or not our governments are handling this crisis. That tends to get political as well.
It's a tight-rope balancing act for certain. I knew that in creating this thread it could turn very ugly very fast.
However, I am hoping this thread will serve as a discussion topic on how this is affecting our personal lives including our jobs and family.
In the spirit of what Ron has written above I have removed that section of my post.
Moving on, real information from real health professionals. These guys are a bit flat on delivery but the information is dead on
We have began purchasing insurance for some of our International travel. In researching this years planned trips we are finding, in many cases, insurers are specifically excluding coverage for Coronavirus related losses. Not a great sign.
Yes, in terms of international travel...not a good year to do it. I mean if you want to take an easy precaution curtailing travel via passenger jet and cruise ships is an easy one. Other than that right now, simply wash your hands often and stay home if you are sick.
I froze my assets during the H1 N1 scare and have regretted it ever since. The market will come back. The question is when. Now I get that you are retired and I have not. I plan to sometime in the next 5 years. I’m just not looking at my portfolio right now....
As I was telling my 23 old son who just started his 403B this is great news for him. Buying low. Not so good for us fogeys...
I have been on the phone with my financial advisor on a daily basis for the past few days.
He has had about half his clients freeze their accounts.
His advice to me was that if I were NOT retired and still working towards retirement, then it would be a bad idea to freeze my account.
However, now that I am retired and all my cash is with him and my investments -- and I am living off of withdraws from those investments -- then freezing the account is not a bad idea at all.
He also advised me that Monday could be a very, very bad day. If there are new cases of coronavirus reported over the weekend then the market is probably going to tumble again.
Again, I think this will get much worse than better. As businesses shut down their plans, the economy takes a hit. I just can't risk losing my life savings to the point I don't have enough to draw upon.
I totally get that. Like I (and you) said, different story if you were still working.
this is definitely looking to be the biggest and most “real” global threat we’ve encountered but I can’t help thinking back to Y2K, SARS, H1N1, Swine flu, bird flu, Ebola....
hopefully Covid19 is appended to that list soon.
The reason why America has so few reported cases is not because we don't have them but because our tests are jacked up....
What’s the “panic” some are referring to? I’ve flown cross country, DC to LAX this week. No panic. A few more people than usual at the airport are wearing face masks. But TSA isn’t. Flights are as full as always. Hotels are full. Businesses are busy. The virus is the current hot topic to discuss. And I’m told that the school system in NOVA is making plans for dealing with possible flu outbreak.
But panic? I’m not seeing it.
I am seeing what is, as yet, mild over reaction, pulling back from speculative vacation plans by individuals. But TBD on whether we’ve got a real global outbreak to the US or if Spring sunshine will fix all this.
The market drops are painful to me short term. With no good savings interests rates, I’ve got my mid-range savings in the markets. Longer term it should be OK. But for buying a 4k projector, this might pose an obstacle. TBD.
big picture: conventional wisdom is dollar cost averaging, stay the course and reap the long term benefits of the markets ups and Downs.
And if your horizon is too short to get through markets down turns, you shouldnt have that money in the market. Which is why the other conventional wisdom is to move more and more out of stocks and into more stable, lower risk, lower yields investments going into retirement. To not be clobbered by such down turns.
I’m not a financial advisor. Ignore everything I’ve said.
I will just pass over the financial advice as I have already discussed this in great deal with my financial advisor and he feels that under my circumstances, freezing the account short-term is not a bad idea. I don't personally like giving out financial advice to others as everyone has their own unique situation.
Today, it's business as usual. Nobody is panicking except the markets which are understandable as businesses are starting to take a hit.
However, in the upcoming weeks, as this spreads further, there is most likely going to be panic.
People are not going to want to take cruises, travel in planes or attend concerts or conventions where there are large crowds.
I don't know what it is about this virus, but what it has done to businesses and people globally is unlike anything we have seen in our lifetime....and for us, it just may be beginning.
I was thinking more of the constant drumbeat in the press, delivered at a mid-level screech: "new cases here, new cases there, this country now has X cases, the end is nigh."
But the press treats everything equally as "headline news" these days, from the spread of a flu-like virus to Prince Harry relinquishing his royal title. And it's all about the ratings, so they need to keep up the level of panic so people will keep watching.
I'm still planning to travel to the Caribbean next month.
I would rather have the press keep reporting this to us than be in a situation where officials aren't allowed to tell people anything.
Trying to keep this within guidelines, but I am sure you are aware that numbers are being skewed by many governments.
The press beating that drum is actually a blessing because the moment new cases are reported, the public finds out.
One thing to consider about the ‘death rate’ percentage is its based on infected numbers.
Regular Flu has a low percentage because of the high number of infectees.
Corona has a higher percentage now because the total number of infectees is currently relatively low.
These percentages only become accurate and fixed when there is enough historical data to determine a pattern. Not enough is known to assume the quoted 2% mortality is scalable as more become infected.
For domestic travel, as long as you're reasonable healthy and take obvious precautions, I wouldn't be concerned either. International travel is a whole different thing because some countries have VERY strict entry requirements, especially when there's a known virus in circulation.
We docked in Singapore several years ago and, since there had been a reported outbreak of Norovirus on the ship, the local authorities met us at the port, boarded and checked the temperature of EVERY (this ship held at least 3000) passenger. If your temp was elevated or you showed other symptoms you were not allowed entry and there was no wiggle room whatsoever.
United has already started reducing outbound flights there.
Nothing is being overplayed. The various cruise lines were mini-worlds. The infection - and death rate is quite significant. If "patient zero" on each of the cruises had even a severe case of the flu, there would never have been such rapid, and yet still delayed, infection rates.
The markets are reacting the way they should because there's going be shortages of products made in China or made with Chinese parts. Factories have been closed in China since their New Year's holiday. The Wall Street Journal reported this week that while office workers were working from home, a huge majority of the nearly 300 million workers from outside the cities have been very slow in returning to work. Therefore profits will be impacted, 100% no matter who is or will be President.
My Brooklyn neighborhood is almost 100% Chinese, but from the agrarian part of the country. They are buying up rice and bottled water like crazy. The Rite Aide near me has no bottled water, the Chinese supermarkets are out of rice. Meanwhile the local "Mom and Pop" Chinese shops have stacks of rice and water for everyone.
One last thing, I wonder about people voluntarily traveling abroad at this time. Even if you are young and healthy, don't you have elderly relatives or friends you may expose to the virus?
My Mom is 90 years old.
She's concerned. She doesn't go out, but if I were to get the virus it could very well spread to her.
I fear more for the elderly in all this. They are the ones who will not have the resistance to survive.