Is it time to talk about coronavirus?

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Clinton McClure

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I’ve noticed some here in another thread they look forward to an effective vaccine so they can go back to a movie theater. I have to ask myself, self, what is an effective vaccine? I’ve heard anywhere from 50% to 90% is what we can hope for. 50% doesn’t impress me at all and 90% is not a guarantee you will not get covid.

Then you have to consider those who will not get a vaccination because they are anti-vaxers. Then there will be those who aren’t anti-vaxers but don’t think the covid vaccine is effective or safe enough. I can see myself in that category under the right circumstances.

I’m saying I’m worried a vaccine will not be the game changer we hope for. Between the vaccine not being 100% effective and those who won’t get it, how much good will it do?

I do feel we already have a game changer device already available. It’s the mask. If 90% of the country would wear one, I believe covid would be gone in a year. Had all been wearing one since March or April, many lives would have been saved. But we all know how the wearing of masks is going.

We have met the enemy, and he is us.
Since Covid is a respiratory illness, much like seasonal flu, the best we can hope for with a vaccine will be results similar to an annual flu vaccine. Not 100% effective, however, it cuts down transmission, duration, and lightens symptoms to a tolerable level. It’s more about mitigation and less about elimination. I’ve been getting an annual flu jab for at least the past 18 years and haven’t caught flu in that time. I‘ve had bronchitis, stomach viruses, and the occasional upper respiratory infection, but never flu.

My wife is wanting to do things like go back to crowded theaters and tourist traps like Branson and Disney World. I’m out. I absolutely refuse until the situation is under control and there isn’t a 50/50 chance that I’ll catch Covid because some people are stupid and can’t play along.

The mask is an absolute game changer and it’s a shame that there is a significant population of armchair doctors who run around shouting about “not gonna wear one because it infringes on my rights”.
 
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Johnny Angell

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The mask is an absolute game changer and it’s a shame that there is a significant population of armchair doctors who run around shouting about “not gonna wear one because it infringes on my rights”.
Watched some video of a certain group of people who don’t believe in masks. One guy is holding one and is saying something to the effect this simple thing is supposed to save my life, I don’t believe it. Another says covid is a hoax. Another says “if I die, i die. I don’t care.” To these people I’d like to say, have you noticed how surgeons and nurses are wearing masks before they cut you open? Why do they do that, you idiot?

Rights are not absolute. No one has the right to do whatever they want. We all have social responsibilities to society. None of us are islands, living apart from everyone else.
 
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DaveF

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Influenza vaccine is about 50% effective, give or take. So, 50% is not terrible.

A lot of people have pinned all their hopes on getting a vaccine. Just get a vaccine and everything goes back to normal. Hopefully.

But if the vaccine is 50% effective and 50% of the population gets it, that's 25% immune by vaccine. Maybe another 25% of the population has already been infected and has immunity. So we're at 50% immune. Herd immunity threshold (HIT) is estimated around 60% to 70%. (And that's not a hard limit -- the virus doens't just go away when we get there.) So, we might have a while to go still before normalcy returns, even with a vaccine.

And that's ignoring how long it takes to roll out 180M doses of a new vaccine, whether they require boosters, whether pre-existing immunity fades after some duration, etc.

We might all still need to wear masks and have some measure of physical distancing well into 2021. Or maybe not. Maybe everything comes up Milhouse this Winter...? If we've got vaccine(s) that are 80% effective and they get out to 80% of the population by next Spring, and we've got fast, low-cost tests to help manage back-to-school and back-to-work planning, maybe we get back to normal early 2021. We can hope.
 

Josh Steinberg

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I think much of 2021 will be lost, and what’s worse, I think so many people have tied their expectations to everything awful being “2020” that when 2021 rolls around, more people than ever will just decide they’re “done” with it, and that’ll just lead to yet another resurgence and more social conflict, as people double down on whatever they were doing, good or bad.

I think all of this cheerleading for a vaccine is really shortsighted and not great for morale because most people don’t understand how vaccines work and that the process of distributing it isn’t as simple as flipping a light switch. There seems to be a widespread expectation that this will all just go away at the beginning of next year and I don’t believe there’s any cause or evidence to suggest that will be the case. And I think there is going to be a tremendous social backlash when that unrealistic expectation is not met.
 

Malcolm R

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I'm hopeful there will be at least one change in January 2021 that will improve a number of things.

But if the vaccine is 50% effective and 50% of the population gets it, that's 25% immune by vaccine. Maybe another 25% of the population has already been infected and has immunity. So we're at 50% immune. Herd immunity threshold (HIT) is estimated around 60% to 70%. (And that's not a hard limit -- the virus doens't just go away when we get there.) So, we might have a while to go still before normalcy returns, even with a vaccine.
I think this is why Dr. Fauci is saying it will be the end of 2021 before we achieve any sort of "normalcy" even if we have a vaccine this fall.
 

Wayne_j

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The CDC Director says that masks are "More Guaranteed" to work than the coronavirus vaccine which seems like it will only work on 70% of people.

"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield said Wednesday that wearing a mask is more guaranteed to protect someone from coronavirus than taking a vaccine.

Redfield, speaking at a Senate hearing, emphasized the importance of wearing masks, noting that an eventual vaccine is not expected to work in 100 percent of people, and might only work in, say, 70 percent. But a mask is guaranteed to offer at least some protection for all wearers, he added, though it is far from total protection.

"We have clear scientific evidence they work, I might even go so far as to say that this face mask is more guaranteed to protect me against COVID than when I take a COVID vaccine, because the immunogenicity may be 70 percent and if I don't get an immune response, the vaccine's not going to protect me, this face mask will," Redfield said."
 

Clinton McClure

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An observation while in CVS that made me facepalm:

I was waiting in line inside at the pharmacy because it’s always much faster than the endless line of cars at the drive thru. Anyway, I can see the pharmacist, who is wearing a mask. Suddenly she pulls her mask down, looks off the side and sneezes, then pulls her mask back up. :oops:
 

TravisR

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An observation while in CVS that made me facepalm:

I was waiting in line inside at the pharmacy because it’s always much faster than the endless line of cars at the drive thru. Anyway, I can see the pharmacist, who is wearing a mask. Suddenly she pulls her mask down, looks off the side and sneezes, then pulls her mask back up. :oops:
I can't wait for when I'm in public and someone sneezes and I just go back to thinking "Gross" rather than wondering how many people I'll have to push out of my way if I make a mad dash for the door.
 

Johnny Angell

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An observation while in CVS that made me facepalm:

I was waiting in line inside at the pharmacy because it’s always much faster than the endless line of cars at the drive thru. Anyway, I can see the pharmacist, who is wearing a mask. Suddenly she pulls her mask down, looks off the side and sneezes, then pulls her mask back up. :oops:
The other day, I had one of those instantaneous sneezes, the ones with no build-up. I covered my mouth with my hands, turned away from people, all with my mask on. I didn’t make a choice, I think it was an autonomous action, like breathing when asleep.
 

Clinton McClure

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The other day, I had one of those instantaneous sneezes, the ones with no build-up. I covered my mouth with my hands, turned away from people, all with my mask on. I didn’t make a choice, I think it was an autonomous action, like breathing when asleep.
The difference being that you kept your mask on. You still blew through the mask on to your hands but you didn’t pull your mask down to uncover your face, sneeze, then re-cover your face.
 

Francois Caron

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Something I learned from doctor videos on YouTube. You're suppose to sneeze facing people when wearing a mask. That's how medical people do it. The exhaust from the sneeze or cough comes out of the sides of the mask. If you turn your head, you're exposing people in front of you to the exhaust coming out of the sides.
 
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Johnny Angell

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Something I learned from doctor videos on YouTube. You're suppose to sneeze facing people when wearing a mask. That's how medical people do it. The exhaust from the sneeze or cough comes out of the sides of the mask. If you turn your head, you're exposing people in front of you to the exhaust coming out of the sides.
I did not know that, and I’ll bet most people will take offense at you not turning away. Even though you’re right.
 

Mark Booth

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I sure hope Trump didn't expose Joe Biden or Chris Wallace at the debate on Tuesday. Neither were wearing a mask. And with all of the shouting that was going on, surely some respiratory droplets got flung into the room.

Mark
 
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JohnRice

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I sure hope Trump didn't expose Joe Biden or Chris Wallace at the debate on Tuesday. Neither were wearing a mask. And with all of the shouting that was going on, surely some respiratory droplets got flung into the room.

Mark
Biden could be a distinct risk. All things considered.
 
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