Is it time to talk about coronavirus?

TJPC

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Heh.

If I didn't know that was in canada, I would have thought it was a story out of germany (ie. the states in the former west frg and maybe berlin + potsdam, but not the rest of the former east ddr).
Apparently this woman is a loon. Her Facebook shows her leading anti vaxer protests etc.
 
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Neil J

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US numbers - tests taken = 37,258,821, deaths = 129,811, so 129,811/37,258.821 = .00348
.00348*100 - .348
100 - .348 = 99.652 survival rate.

Hopefully this may make some folks feel a tiny bit better but I've been attacked for showing facts in a different thread. These are CDC numbers from today...
 
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Walter Kittel

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US numbers - tests taken = 37,258,821, deaths = 129,811, so 129,811/37,258.821 = .00348
.00348*100 - .348
100 - .348 = 99.652 survival rate.

Hopefully this may make some folks feel a tiny bit better but I've been attacked for showing facts in a different thread. These are CDC numbers from today...
People aren't numbers. Each one of those deaths is an individual whose life was snuffed out. Nothing that anyone says is going to make me feel even a "tiny bit better" about 130,000 fatalities in this country. Literally tens of thousands of lives could have been saved by a competent federal response to this disaster as it burns unabated through the U.S. We will certainly lose tens of thousands of more lives in this country, a death count that could have been mitigated.

You are certainly welcome to your opinions, but this pandemic is a tragedy and a national disaster, no matter what numerical analysis is applied. That's my opinion.

- Walter.
 

TonyD

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US numbers - tests taken = 37,258,821, deaths = 129,811, so 129,811/37,258.821 = .00348
.00348*100 - .348
100 - .348 = 99.652 survival rate.

Hopefully this may make some folks feel a tiny bit better but I've been attacked for showing facts in a different thread. These are CDC numbers from today...
What point are you so poorly trying to make.
 
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Malcolm R

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US numbers - tests taken = 37,258,821, deaths = 129,811, so 129,811/37,258.821 = .00348
.00348*100 - .348
100 - .348 = 99.652 survival rate.

Hopefully this may make some folks feel a tiny bit better but I've been attacked for showing facts in a different thread. These are CDC numbers from today...
Comparing deaths to total tests administered is irrelevant. The survival rate for those testing negative is always 100%.

To survive the disease, you actually have to contract the disease. A negative test doesn't make you a "survivor".
 

Adam Lenhardt

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I found this chart created using data collected by the University of Maryland particularly striking:
map_mask_global_6-19_UPDATED_Page_1[1].png


The Northeast was the only part of the country where more than 50 percent of the respondents says they always where a mask when going out. No surprise then that the Northeast was doing better than the other densely populated parts of the country a couple weeks later.

Comparing deaths to total tests administered is irrelevant. The survival rate for those testing negative is always 100%.

To survive the disease, you actually have to contract the disease. A negative test doesn't make you a "survivor".
Agreed. The number of confirmed cases is around 3 million.

130,303 deaths/3,000,000 confirmed cases = Fatality rate of above 4 percent.

Both numbers are probably significant below the actual numbers however, since there are a lot of asymptomatic people who will never get tested, and there are a lot of people who are dying at home whose deaths won't be attributed to COVID-19.
 

Carlo Medina

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While I kind of understand (but don't agree with) the "here's the numbers, it's not as bad as, say the 1918 flu"...here's the problem with that "logic."

The logic of "not as bad as it could be" should only apply to things largely out of our control. Let's say we discover a large asteroid that's going to hit earth in 24 hours and there's no way to stop it. But we find out it's not a planet killer, and it's going to hit in a largely deserted area, so deaths around the globe should "only be around a million". Well, compared to 7 billion plus, and how the one that killed the dinosaurs would have wiped out most of humanity, then yes, let's say it "isn't that bad."

The problem with the COVID deaths in America are: it is totally reduce-able. And the answer is known. Wear a mask. Physical distance. Wash your hands. Nearly every other country has managed it but us, Brazil and just a few others. But we and Brazil are definitely the outliers. Curious since both have leaders that minimize the seriousness of the pandemic (this is not a political statement, they've both gone on record to say so, it's just a matter of fact).

So I don't really care what the "actual fatality rate is" because 1) that's never going to be known, and 2) it's moot because the more important number is "what could we have prevented if we'd done just these little things like mask wearing, physical distancing, staying home when needed, etc.?"

As Walter said, people aren't numbers. Maybe no one you know has suffered or died. Great for you. Others aren't so lucky. And are you really willing to extrapolate your good fortune of not knowing a sufferer onto those who do?

For those who are anti-maskers: if you or your loved ones ever need surgery, please insist that the surgeon and his crew shouldn't wear masks or scrub up before they plunge their instruments and hands into the open body.

Oh you'd never do that? Then put on a mask and take care of your fellow humans.

EDIT
And now Bolsonaro has tested positive for coronavirus, I wonder what impact that may have on the policies of the other very large nation (geographically) that's trending in the same direction (bad) as the U.S.
 
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DaveF

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Latest article I’ve seen discussing seemingly grounded numbers.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/coronavirus-death-rate.html?referringSource=articleShare

On Thursday, after the World Health Organization held a two-day online meeting of 1,300 scientists from around the world, the agency’s chief scientist, Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, said the consensus for now was that the I.F.R. is about 0.6 percent — which means that the risk of death is less than 1 percent.
Although she did not note this, 0.6 percent of the world’s population is 47 million people, and 0.6 percent of the American population is 2 million people. The virus remains a major threat.
At present, countries have very different case fatality rates, or C.F.R.’s, which measure deaths among patients known to have had Covid-19. In most cases, that number is highest in countries that have had the virus the longest.
According to data gathered by The New York Times, China had reported 90,294 cases as of Friday and 4,634 deaths, which is a C.F.R. of 5 percent. The United States was very close to that mark. It has had 2,811,447 cases and 129,403 deaths, about 4.6 percent.

Those percentages are far higher rates than the 2.5 percent death rate often ascribed to the 1918 flu pandemic. Still, it is difficult to measure fatality rates during pandemics, especially at the beginning.
CFR is trIvially estimated by a layperson. NY state is about 6%. Virginia is about 2.8%. Look up your locale’s total cases and deaths to get a current CFR. The IFR is much harder to estimate. But, for perspective, NY suggested an IFR of 0.2% two months ago. I’ve been reading estimates of around 0.4% to 0.8% for two months. This NYT article quotes an estimated IFR of 0.6%.

IFR ultimately matters much more than. CFR: it’s the absolute mortality rate relative to total population. If the US IFR is 0.6%, we will lose over two million people to COVID-19.
 
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David Weicker

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My local movie theater (Classic Cinemas) re-opened on June 26th. I just got an email that they will be re-closing after the 9th.
Apparently, there wasn’t enough business to sustain them for now (no new movies to draw people in).
Fortunately they do plan to reopen at sometime in the future
 

DaveF

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After discussion, Moderators have concluded that antagonistic and passive-aggressive humor is harmful to the health and continued success of these Coronavirus threads. I’ve deleted a recent post, its wholly expected antagonistic reactions, and we’ll delete future such posts.
 
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Adam Lenhardt

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Looks like an infection rate of more than 70,000 people a day in the United States is imminent.

And as expected, the death toll is climbing again, with more than 800 Americans dying everyday. That's still down significantly from the peak death rate, but the increase in deaths always trails the increase in case so that number will continue to climb.

The actual numbers are trending much closer to the "no masks" projections than the "universal masks" projections, which means we're probably looking at least 215,000 deaths in this country. The number of deaths have already far exceeded the number of American deaths in World War I. Exceeding the number of American deaths in World War II (over 400 thousand Americans dead) or even the Civil War (over 600 thousand Americans dead) is unlikely but no longer entirely outside the realm of possibility.
 
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TravisR

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The actual numbers are trending much closer to the "no masks" projections than the "universal masks" projections, which means we're probably looking at least 215,000 deaths in this country. The number of deaths have already far exceeded the number of American deaths in World War I. Exceeding the number of American deaths in World War II (over 400 thousand Americans dead) or even the Civil War (over 600 thousand Americans dead) is unlikely but no longer entirely outside the realm of possibility.
It's worth noting that WWII and the Civil War took about four years to hit those numbers and COVID will most likely get to half or a third of the dead in those wars in only about one year.
 

Clinton McClure

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I believe Arkansas reported our first day yesterday with over 1000 new cases. It has gotten bad enough that my wife is quitting her job because the sheer number of cases coupled with the risk of transmission where she works far outweighs her pay. She has long suffered from an autoimmune disorder and is at a much higher risk of infection than I am. It’s just not worth it.
 

Robert Crawford

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On Sunday, Florida reported 15,299 new Covid-19 cases which is a single day record by any state since this pandemic began. It shattered the previous record by about 4,000 reported by Florida on July 4th. So much for summer heat affecting this virus.

Anybody not wearing a mask is playing Russian Roulette with their life and those around them. Eventually, it's going to get you!
 

Walter Kittel

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I believe Arkansas reported our first day yesterday with over 1000 new cases. It has gotten bad enough that my wife is quitting her job because the sheer number of cases coupled with the risk of transmission where she works far outweighs her pay. She has long suffered from an autoimmune disorder and is at a much higher risk of infection than I am. It’s just not worth it.
That sounds like a very wise decision. It is a shame that we are all in this predicament; but all it seems like you can do is keep your head down, remain mindful of the best safety practices and weather the storm. Best of luck to you and your better half.

- Walter.
 

Mark Booth

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Rest In Peace, Richard Rose. This is seven Facebook entries by Richard starting on April 28 and ending on July 2. Plus an article about his death on July 4. The bar check-in in June was not a one-time event.

April 28:


May 12:
(Deleted by Moderator, Do Not Repost)

May 12:
(Deleted by Moderator, Do Not Repost)

June:


July 1:


July 1 (later):


July 2:


Article about his death on July 4:



I realize the first image contains profanity that isn't permitted here. I hope the moderators realize it is not me that is using the profanity, I am just reporting a string of events that tells a story.

Mark
 

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