Is it time to talk about coronavirus?

Robert Crawford

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Dave,

If you want to buy into what the CDC is now saying that's fine. I still have my reservations and there's no need to have an extensive discussion as to why I have those reservations. I rather be safe than sorry.
 
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The CDC and the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response have just crafted Pandemic Planning Scenarios that "are designed to help inform decisions by modelers and public health officials who utilize mathematical modeling." One of these scenarios, dubbed Scenario 5, "represents a current best estimate about viral transmission and disease severity in the United States." And it includes a guesstimate about what percentage of those in your age group will die from COVID-19.
The estimates are incomplete. They don't include race, net worth and nationality. You better be prepared to encounter some serious COVID-19 inequalities in the overall body counts.
 
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DaveF

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Dave,

If you want to buy into what the CDC is now saying that's fine. I still have my reservations and there's no need to have an extensive discussion as to why I have those reservations. I rather be safe than sorry.
To be clear: I "buy into" what has been said by multiple scientists and experts for mulitple weeks on this topic, and is now explicitly affirmed by the CDC. This is also a reasonable conclusion from the information about outbreaks we've gotten the past month or so.

I don't like the insinuation that I'm buying into some crackpot conspiracy theory from a single, fringe source. I appreciate that the CDC is imperfect. But they remain a solid source of information and tend to be lagging in saying what expert sources have already said for days and wekes prior.

Anyone who isn't yet confident in this, there is no harm in washing your hands and setting mail aside for three days, to be safe. I wouldn't say otherwise.

And if we learn more that shows the risk of infection from physical transfer is higher than is generally thought today, that's fine. We keep learning.

But for now, I'm worrying even less about handling my mail and takeout food and groceries.
 

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I’m pretty much with you, Dave. I worried more about those things at the beginning when we still knew very little, while also feeling that it was more likely to be human interaction and crowded spaces than random surfaces. And that’s basically panned out.

I recently observed a neighbor interacting with the mailman, and of course I’m not gonna say anything but the whole thing struck me as bizarre. Mailman was wearing a mask; neighbor wasn’t. Neighbor reached out to accept mail by hand from mailman and immediately sprayed Lysol on the paper mail. She’s disinfecting harmless paper while standing less than two feet away from another person without any face protection in a high traffic area. She’s not gonna get sick from the mail. She’s gonna get sick conversing with and touching the mailman.

Also noticing that when doctors and nurses leave the hospital across the street from my apartment, many of them immediately remove their masks when stepping outside, which is of course in direct violation of city and state regulations that everyone must wear a mask at all times in public no matter what. These doctors and nurses should know better. They’re treading covid patients daily. They can’t say with any certainty that they’re not sick or contagious in any given moment. Are they likely to be? Probably not. Is it a risk that can be ruled out? No. So why not set a good example for the community you work in and follow the damn law and wear your mask? It seems reckless that these professionals are walking around in my sidewalk where families are trying to get little moments of fresh air, not socially distancing themselves and not doing a damn thing to show respect and consideration for the safety of their community. Shame on them.
 
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Also noticing that when doctors and nurses leave the hospital across the street from my apartment, many of them immediately remove their masks when stepping outside, which is of course in direct violation of city and state regulations that everyone must wear a mask at all times in public no matter what
Most places I believe a mask outdoors only required if you can't social distance.
 
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Josh Steinberg

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Most places I believe a mask outdoors only required if you can't social distance.
You can’t socially distance at an active crosswalk in a busy corner, which is exactly where the hospital lets out. Our governor specifically said to wear masks in those circumstances. The way the order was written and the way the governor explained it does not leave room for interpretation.
 
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bruceames

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OK. I was referring to the "at all times in public" remark and thought you meant outdoors. The hospital where I live doesn't have many people there where you step outside.
 

Robert Crawford

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To be clear: I "buy into" what has been said by multiple scientists and experts for mulitple weeks on this topic, and is now explicitly affirmed by the CDC. This is also a reasonable conclusion from the information about outbreaks we've gotten the past month or so.

I don't like the insinuation that I'm buying into some crackpot conspiracy theory from a single, fringe source. I appreciate that the CDC is imperfect. But they remain a solid source of information and tend to be lagging in saying what expert sources have already said for days and wekes prior.

Anyone who isn't yet confident in this, there is no harm in washing your hands and setting mail aside for three days, to be safe. I wouldn't say otherwise.

And if we learn more that shows the risk of infection from physical transfer is higher than is generally thought today, that's fine. We keep learning.

But for now, I'm worrying even less about handling my mail and takeout food and groceries.
I never said anything about "crackpot" conspiracy so let's stop the insinuation implied stuff because of my choice of words as I meant no disrespect. My use of "buying in" is just a phrase I use all of the time when I'm speaking with others. Nothing other is meant by it!
 

Robert Crawford

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You can’t socially distance at an active crosswalk in a busy corner, which is exactly where the hospital lets out. Our governor specifically said to wear masks in those circumstances. The way the order was written and the way the governor explained it does not leave room for interpretation.
Especially not in NYC!
 

Robert Crawford

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I’m pretty much with you, Dave. I worried more about those things at the beginning when we still knew very little, while also feeling that it was more likely to be human interaction and crowded spaces than random surfaces. And that’s basically panned out.
I've always felt that way about the airborne exposure over the touching services. Also, not touching my face with my hands which is why I wear gloves and wash my hands so many times throughout the day even though, I'm basically home bound except for groceries.
 

Josh Steinberg

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Especially not in NYC!
Exactly.

It’s a double failure in my book. They’re not following the law and they’re not setting a good example.

I am noticing that people around my area are losing patience with these regulations and either making choices in defiance of those regulators or trying to bargain their way out of them. And I think it sends a really bad signals when medical professionals aren’t following along, because I think ordinary people see that and say to themselves, “I knew all of this stuff wasn’t really necessary and that just proves it, they work in a hospital and don’t wear a mask, I don’t work in a hospital, so I definitely don’t need one.”

Subway ridership has doubled in the past month even though restrictions haven’t been lifted.

Every anecdotal thing I see around me tells me that people are letting down their guards and if that’s happening right now while restrictions are in place, I can’t imagine the disaster that will follow when these restrictions get eased into mere suggestions.
 

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The death rate of Coved is always compared to the death rate of the flu. Is it possible for a person to have the bug for the flu but show no symptoms?
 

Carlo Medina

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Every anecdotal thing I see around me tells me that people are letting down their guards and if that’s happening right now while restrictions are in place, I can’t imagine the disaster that will follow when these restrictions get eased into mere suggestions.
I mean...there is more than one path to herd immunity. Unfortunately, this is the more painful path.
 

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Exactly.

It’s a double failure in my book. They’re not following the law and they’re not setting a good example.

I am noticing that people around my area are losing patience with these regulations and either making choices in defiance of those regulators or trying to bargain their way out of them. And I think it sends a really bad signals when medical professionals aren’t following along, because I think ordinary people see that and say to themselves, “I knew all of this stuff wasn’t really necessary and that just proves it, they work in a hospital and don’t wear a mask, I don’t work in a hospital, so I definitely don’t need one.”

Subway ridership has doubled in the past month even though restrictions haven’t been lifted.

Every anecdotal thing I see around me tells me that people are letting down their guards and if that’s happening right now while restrictions are in place, I can’t imagine the disaster that will follow when these restrictions get eased into mere suggestions.
And once the economy is reopened, there's zero chance that they'll shut down it again so people will have to go to work no matter what the potential consequences.
 

Carlo Medina

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And once the economy is reopened, there's zero chance that they'll shut down it again so people will have to go to work no matter what the potential consequences.
Oh there is a chance we'll shut down again. But it's going to take a lot more deaths and hospitalizations.

We are at the "victim of our own success" stage. We were able to stave off the worst, so now those who were in the doubtful camp are like "so what was the big deal?" They never knew the powderkeg we were all sitting on prior to shutdown.
 

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It pisses me off so much because if everyone in the country/world who didn’t believe this was as big of a deal as it is came to live at my address for a week, it would be an eye opening experience. No need for me to repeat what I’ve already said a thousand times in this thread but it’s just so frustrating. If people in general heard the number of sirens I heard, saw the refrigerated trucks lined up in the street, saw the sidewalk converted into extra hospital space, saw it go on for weeks without end, then maybe they’d understand how naive and ill considered all of these little “bargaining” questions are. What if I go to the movies but we sit apart? What if we eat brunch with masks half on? What if we go to the beach but don’t play with others? What if we just meet outside for coffee six feet away? If people saw the sheer misery of this thing up close, if they saw how it overwhelms the medical system, if they really truly understood that an outbreak means you might call “911” for help and be told that there was no help available to be provided, maybe they’d realize how unimportant all of that other stuff is. And I realize I may be coming off as an asshole, but when you’ve seen how bad this gets up close, it’s hard not to want to react incredulously (or worse) when someone else has a temper tantrum over not getting to see a movie or having to stay home.
 

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Categorically, testing is still inadequate in the US. Even in places that are doing a pretty good job, there’s not the testing desired to monitor the populace to really know what’s happening.

But even if we stipulated some places had sufficient testing, others don’t. my county had its first ever, drive-up, open testing for COVID-19 on Wednesday. It brought so much traiffic and such long lines, they quit three hours early. Rumors are people from other counties, maybe other states were coming in for testing.


Right now, to my knowledge, I have no way to get testing to see if am or have been infected without be seriously ill.

so, testing, were still failing as a nation.
I'm only aware of the situation in my area which, I believe, has had a cake walk experience compared to yours so it's really sad that adequate testing isn't available where it's likely needed most.

My main point, however, was that even it it were readily available everywhere a large percentage of individuals would probably not submit to it due to their perceived immortality and lack of concern for their fellowman.
 

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Oh there is a chance we'll shut down again. But it's going to take a lot more deaths and hospitalizations.
I suppose at a certain point that a reclosure would have to happen but I think that closing down again is essentially admitting that reopening wasn't the right move so the number of dead will have to be so high that it's a horror to even consider.
 

TravisR

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I 100% think that’s what will happen. When the rest of the country looks in a month like NYC looked, hopefully people will wake up.
I don't want to sound like I'm saying "I hope so" to something that terrible but I hope that if things gets bad, people and the government are willing to go the hell back home.
 

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