Is it time to talk about coronavirus? (2 Viewers)

[Robert Crawford]

This guy gets it. Unfortunately he'll probably get death threats...

‘Hero’ Costco Worker Hailed After Showdown With Irate Shopper Over Mask Policy

Twitter users are praising Tison for how he handled the angry mask-less shopper.

www.huffpost.com

I really feel sorry for those working in retail and restaurants that have to put up with "asshole" customers.

 

[Walter Kittel]

There's "assholes" and then there's effing "assholes"...

Waffle House Customer Opened Fire After Being Told to Wear Mask: Cops

Authorities said the man wanted to purchase takeout food but was told by a cook that he couldn’t order without a mask.

www.thedailybeast.com

What the hell is wrong with people? The mind boggles.

- Walter.

 

[Carlo_M]

So you actually did see this point. I’m glad. Were you just having a lend of me running me around trying to explain this exact point the other week? If so, then you got me good mate.

Nope. If you're referring to the late April argument, you continue to misunderstand my point, which I've always held, and those three points I've listed were consistent with what I said back then.

My points remains:

• The actual infection rate is still higher than what we think due to lack of testing.
• That means both actual hospitalization rate and mortality rate is lower (as a percentage of people needing hospitalization and dying compared to the true, unknown, much higher infection rate).
• Those numbers will still be higher than the seasonal flu, but will be much closer to that number than previously thought (remember when we first began testing there was a 1-in-5 chance that infected people will need hospitalization which is 20% and then a 3-5% mortality rate).

What I said back in late April was that people who want us to reopen quickly will use the fact that those hospitalization and mortality rate will go down as justification to go back to business as usual. I felt then, and still feel now, that is a dangerous way forward because

• While the hospitality rate and mortality rate may decline as more positive cases are identified, COVID spreads faster than the flu, so too much easing and we could start another conflagration of infections
• Even if mortality rate goes down, the number of people requiring ventilators is significantly higher for COVID than for flu (in fact I've never known anyone to have to be ventilated for the flu, not to say it doesn't happen, just that I'm sure it's much more rare than for COVID) and so a spike in infections threatens to overrun our hospitals and strain our ventilator supplies

That's what I felt then, and that's what I feel now. I re-read your post and to be honest, it felt like you were misunderstanding mine, or playing semantics with me. What I just wrote above is what I've believed then and now.

The "new" thing on my mind is: there are untold numbers of death and suffering associated with poverty, unemployment, depression, etc. We don't have reliable statistics for those. And all of those will increase as we continue with the stay at home order and associated economic freefall. So we're damned if we do, damned if we don't. While I don't advocate for "business as usual" and still think COVID a serious threat until either highly effective treatments and a vaccine are developed, I can understand why many cities, counties and states are advocating for an easing of the order and trying to get the economy restarted. Basically we need to have this balancing act of reopening as much as possible, in a responsible manner, to get the economy going without creating another infection spike. To monitor that we need testing capabilities far beyond what we've currently shown, and that's what is now most worrisome to me.

 

[Carlo_M]

I really feel sorry for those working in retail and restaurants that have to put up with "asshole" customers.

To be fair, this phenomenon has predated the pandemic (several close friends in college worked retail and waited tables, and were not shy sharing their stories). Good to see these people are still alive during the pandemic...

 

[RMajidi]

Nope. If you're referring to the late April argument, you continue to misunderstand my point, which I've always held, and those three points I've listed were consistent with what I said back then.

My points remains:

• The actual infection rate is still higher than what we think due to lack of testing.
• That means both actual hospitalization rate and mortality rate is lower (as a percentage of people needing hospitalization and dying compared to the true, unknown, much higher infection rate).
• Those numbers will still be higher than the seasonal flu, but will be much closer to that number than previously thought (remember when we first began testing there was a 1-in-5 chance that infected people will need hospitalization which is 20% and then a 3-5% mortality rate).

What I said back in late April was that people who want us to reopen quickly will use the fact that those hospitalization and mortality rate will go down as justification to go back to business as usual. I felt then, and still feel now, that is a dangerous way forward because

• While the hospitality rate and mortality rate may decline as more positive cases are identified, COVID spreads faster than the flu, so too much easing and we could start another conflagration of infections
• Even if mortality rate goes down, the number of people requiring ventilators is significantly higher for COVID than for flu (in fact I've never known anyone to have to be ventilated for the flu, not to say it doesn't happen, just that I'm sure it's much more rare than for COVID) and so a spike in infections threatens to overrun our hospitals and strain our ventilator supplies

That's what I felt then, and that's what I feel now. I re-read your post and to be honest, it felt like you were misunderstanding mine, or playing semantics with me. What I just wrote above is what I've believed then and now.

The "new" thing on my mind is: there are untold numbers of death and suffering associated with poverty, unemployment, depression, etc. We don't have reliable statistics for those. And all of those will increase as we continue with the stay at home order and associated economic freefall. So we're damned if we do, damned if we don't. While I don't advocate for "business as usual" and still think COVID a serious threat until either highly effective treatments and a vaccine are developed, I can understand why many cities, counties and states are advocating for an easing of the order and trying to get the economy restarted. Basically we need to have this balancing act of reopening as much as possible, in a responsible manner, to get the economy going without creating another infection spike. To monitor that we need testing capabilities far beyond what we've currently shown, and that's what is now most worrisome to me.

Playing semantics with you - no. Neither arguing - then or now. Just trying to ensure I knew what you meant by hospitalisation rate, as your definition when I sought clarification from you differed to the one in your post earlier today. In fact the definition you gave today is exactly the one I was trying to explain, and evidently didn’t do a good job of explaining. It’s not a subtle difference - it is an important distinction. Your three step summary today explained it clearly - much better than my ham-fisted attempts at getting exactly the same point across.

As things have gotten better and better here in our neck of the woods, I’ve felt less inclined to post here too much lately, as I know we’re not facing anywhere near the same immediacy of danger as you folks are. Nonetheless, this balancing act being played out everywhere - including here - of maintaining restrictions to keep infections down, versus relaxing them to get society working again in full knowledge of additional deaths, is as you say a damned if we do and damned if we don’t proposition. A horrifying one with no easy answers.

In a post here a few days or weeks ago, Ron Epstein made a comment in passing that has been reverberating in my mind ever since. He said (paraphrasing here) that ‘we can’t even be united among ourselves’. It was an easy remark to miss, as it was offered almost as an afterthought to a long post, but I think he encapsulated the real root of the problem everywhere at all levels in that one statement... and very likely identified the key to the solution.

Those countries, jurisdictions, communities, families (take whatever level you wish, anywhere) who are taking a collaborative and united approach are faring so much better than counterparts that are warring among themselves and focusing on blame and self-interest.

I know WHO is not exactly flavour of the month, but I was fascinated by an article last week on the occasion of the 40th anniversary of the global eradication of smallpox - in particular, the following passage:

As the UN agency works determinedly with many partners to accelerate a COVID-19 vaccine to control transmission, the WHO chief pointed out that an inoculation “was not enough on its own” to end smallpox.

He recalled that while the vaccine was first developed over two centuries ago, in 1796, “it took another 184 years for smallpox to be eradicated”.

“The decisive factor in the victory over smallpox was global solidarity”, spelled out Mr. Ghebreyesus, noting that at the height of the Cold War, the Soviet Union and the United States “joined forces to conquer a common enemy”.

They recognized back then that viruses respect neither nations nor ideologies and according to the agency head, that same solidarity, which was built on national unity, is “needed now more than ever to defeat COVID-19”.

The full article is here: https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/05/1063582

 

[TravisR]

There's "assholes" and then there's effing "assholes"...

Waffle House Customer Opened Fire After Being Told to Wear Mask: Cops

Authorities said the man wanted to purchase takeout food but was told by a cook that he couldn’t order without a mask.

www.thedailybeast.com

What the hell is wrong with people? The mind boggles.

- Walter.

Violent crime usually has a fairly large increase in the cities in the summer. This year, multiple cities are going to be knee deep in blood because people will be on edge due to lack of jobs, the heat and the virus & all that entails.

 

[Robert Crawford]

To be fair, this phenomenon has predated the pandemic (several close friends in college worked retail and waited tables, and were not shy sharing their stories). Good to see these people are still alive during the pandemic...

I never said otherwise which is a reason I could never work in retail as I don't have the personality to deal with such individuals.

 

[Carlo_M]

Playing semantics with you - no. Neither arguing - then or now. Just trying to ensure I knew what you meant by hospitalisation rate, as your definition when I sought clarification from you differed to the one in your post earlier today. In fact the definition you gave today is exactly the one I was trying to explain, and evidently didn’t do a good job of explaining. It’s not a subtle difference - it is an important distinction. Your three step summary today explained it clearly - much better than my ham-fisted attempts at getting exactly the same point across.

As things have gotten better and better here in our neck of the woods, I’ve felt less inclined to post here too much lately, as I know we’re not facing anywhere near the same immediacy of danger as you folks are. Nonetheless, this balancing act being played out everywhere - including here - of maintaining restrictions to keep infections down, versus relaxing them to get society working again in full knowledge of additional deaths, is as you say a damned if we do and damned if we don’t proposition. A horrifying one with no easy answers.

In a post here a few days or weeks ago, Ron Epstein made a comment in passing that has been reverberating in my mind ever since. He said (paraphrasing here) that ‘we can’t even be united among ourselves’. It was an easy remark to miss, as it was offered almost as an afterthought to a long post, but I think he encapsulated the real root of the problem everywhere at all levels in that one statement... and very likely identified the key to the solution.

Those countries, jurisdictions, communities, families (take whatever level you wish, anywhere) who are taking a collaborative and united approach are faring so much better than counterparts that are warring among themselves and focusing on blame and self-interest.

I know WHO is not exactly flavour of the month, but I was fascinated by an article last week on the occasion of the 40th anniversary of the global eradication of smallpox - in particular, the following passage:




The full article is here: https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/05/1063582

No worries, we're on the same page. This thread grows so fast with so many cross-posts, wires probably just got crossed.

He recalled that while the vaccine was first developed over two centuries ago, in 1796, “it took another 184 years for smallpox to be eradicated”.

And just a small group of anti-vaxxers to un-eradicate it.

 

[LeoA]

Nah, smallpox doesn't exist in the wild anymore. I don't think they've vaccinated people since the 1970's for it.

 

[DaveF]

And just a small group of anti-vaxxers to un-eradicate it.

You're thinking of measles. That was essentially eradicated in the US, but the anti-vaxers have enabled it to come back.

Anti-vaxxers open door for measles, mumps, other old-time diseases back from near extinction

The current measles outbreaks puts a spotlight on old diseases making a comeback, sometimes because of a failure to vaccinate.

www.usatoday.com

 

[Carlo_M]

Lol yup, wrong "old-time disease".

 

[Josh Steinberg]

The measles outbreak in the NYC area was terrifying. Adding insult to injury, for medical reasons I can’t take the measles vaccine so I’m dependent on herd immunity for that one, and it was really scary to see how quickly it came roaring back. My wife was pregnant with our twins at the time and the medical practice she was going to and the hospital she delivered at were on the verge of instituting a policy that anyone who wouldn’t or couldn’t be vaccinated wouldn’t be allowed to attend doctor’s appointments or the birth. They ended up not putting that policy in place but I spent a good two or three weeks freaking out that I was going to miss those moments before they dropped that idea. And the thing is, I get where they’re coming from - but it still sucked.

 

[DaveF]

Absolutely fascinating and informative twitter thread on infectious fatality rate (IFR) for COVID-19, and the continued and seemingly inexplicable attempts by a researcher to prove it is much lower than it obviously is.

 

[The Drifter]

I really feel sorry for those working in retail and restaurants that have to put up with "asshole" customers.

Agreed. I used to work in the service industry (a restaurant in my late teens), and the number of entitled pricks I had to deal with was incredible. Anyone that believes the tired adage "the customer is always right" is a delusional nimrod.

 

[RMajidi]

The measles outbreak in the NYC area was terrifying. Adding insult to injury, for medical reasons I can’t take the measles vaccine so I’m dependent on herd immunity for that one, and it was really scary to see how quickly it came roaring back. My wife was pregnant with our twins at the time and the medical practice she was going to and the hospital she delivered at were on the verge of instituting a policy that anyone who wouldn’t or couldn’t be vaccinated wouldn’t be allowed to attend doctor’s appointments or the birth. They ended up not putting that policy in place but I spent a good two or three weeks freaking out that I was going to miss those moments before they dropped that idea. And the thing is, I get where they’re coming from - but it still sucked.

Twins
Measles
Pandemic
...in New York

Life’s been a picnic for you these months.

Stay safe and strong through this.

 

[RMajidi]

The measles outbreak in the NYC area was terrifying. Adding insult to injury, for medical reasons I can’t take the measles vaccine so I’m dependent on herd immunity for that one, and it was really scary to see how quickly it came roaring back. My wife was pregnant with our twins at the time and the medical practice she was going to and the hospital she delivered at were on the verge of instituting a policy that anyone who wouldn’t or couldn’t be vaccinated wouldn’t be allowed to attend doctor’s appointments or the birth. They ended up not putting that policy in place but I spent a good two or three weeks freaking out that I was going to miss those moments before they dropped that idea. And the thing is, I get where they’re coming from - but it still sucked.

By the way, Josh, I’m not sure if you’re aware that someone taped you when they broke the news that you can’t attend the birth of your twins:

https://youtu.be/slB9WPb7BZM?t=99

And I hear Dr Swigert did a great job in the delivery room.

 

[DaveF]

The OS "infrastructure" for "exposure notifications" is launched. Now we wait for developers to create apps that use the system.


Apple and Google officially launch Exposure Notifications to fight COVID-19 | iMore

Apple News, Reviews and Buying Guides | iMore

Discover more about Apple, including the latest news, updates and software features.

www.imore.com

Apple and Google officially launch Exposure Notifications to fight COVID-19 | iMore

 

[ManW_TheUncool]

Hmmm... very curious how that's going to work re: Apple's and Google's new contact tracing API...

They claim to protect privacy, but they're only providing an API, not actual apps.

_Man_

 

[DaveF]

The API enforces the privay limitations. It doesn't allow provide GPS data, for example, to be collected. This is why there's a bunch of doctors cheesed off about it and some ill-considered hit pieces in WaPo on the system. It doesn't allow true "contact tracing" to be done because of its privacy restrictions.

To get all that data, you have to have an app always running, in the foreground, with the screen on. Which is unsuable and battery killing in practice. Utah, I believe it is, is developing such an app independently. The UK was pursuing this too, I think. Germany and France were weirdly pressing Apple / Google to be less privacy conscious on this, but I think relented and are adopting the OS-makers APIs.

 

[John Dirk]

There's "assholes" and then there's effing "assholes"...

Waffle House Customer Opened Fire After Being Told to Wear Mask: Cops

Authorities said the man wanted to purchase takeout food but was told by a cook that he couldn’t order without a mask.

www.thedailybeast.com

What the hell is wrong with people? The mind boggles.

- Walter.

I hope I haven't veered too far into political territory but this stuff really pisses me off and it's our own collective fault.

Mod Edit: Yes you did.