Hurricane Ivan (1 Viewer)

[Malcolm R]

As Ivan winds down slowly, it's interesting to look back to Rob's post of the projected track from last week and see how much there's left to learn about hurricane forecasting.

Where Ivan ended up in Alabama isn't even within the "cone" of the extended forecast at that time. Ivan went waaaaay far west of where everyone expected (thankfully for Florida's peninsula).

The southeast coast should now begin watching Jeanne.

 

[Chris Lockwood]

> Ivan went waaaaay far west of where everyone expected (thankfully for Florida's peninsula).

Yeah, a week ago it was predicted to rip right up the FL gulf coast. It's always scary when those little hurricane symbols are right over your home, even when it's just a prediction.

It sucks to be in Alabama right now. The whole state is going to be a mess.

I hear I-10 is a mess, with most bridges underwater & some destroyed. That's the major east/west interstate, & will have an impact on relief efforts.

Speaking of relief, if anyone wants to help, go to redcross.org

 

[Holadem]

Pardon my naivete, but it's difficult for me to imagine why people need to travel 12+ hours to find shelter?

Can someone point to a documentary that details the damage these things do in a country like the US?

Can a hurricane really put the occupants of a brick house with boarded up windows in danger?

Why are houses still built with light material in these areas?

Why the heck do people live in mobile homes down there?!

I am seriously trying to understand this phenomenon, I am always surprised by the number of death these things cause here in mainland US.

--
H

 

[Walter Kittel]

In addition to the high winds associated with hurricanes two other aspects of these storms need to be considered:

Tornadoes spawned by these storms can do considerable damage regardless of the strength of the structure.

Flooding in coastal regions due to storm surge and the amount of rain generated by hurricanes tends to make the question of structural integrity moot, if one lives in a region susceptible to flooding. Many of the evacuees were leaving low lying coastal regions.

- Walter.

 

[Robert_J]

It's cheap housing. I lived in one for two years of college, almost two years of grad school and four years after that. Since I owned the home, the rent for the lot was at most $200/month. It wasn't fun when the local tonado sirens went off.

Even if your house wasn't damaged, what are you going to do without electricity or running water for a week? It's best to get out of the area until the basic services can get turned back on.

-Robert

 

[mark alan]

I live in a stone house with walls 12-18" thick. I would love to have one of those babies hit me. Of course I live in Pittsburgh, where the weather is always dull.:frowning:

 

[Marvin Richardson]

I know when I lived in Okinawa Japan (my father was in the Air Force) for about 8 years, we got hit with typhoons all the time (about seven a year). It never seemed to be any big deal. Of course storm surge and rain weren't really issues, living on an island and all, but the winds of those typhoons were almost always stronger than what the southeast US gets. The structures in Okinawa were definitely built better to withstand wind damage. I remember that when a big typhoon would hit, it seemed like the Okinawans went on with life as normal, while the military freaked out and locked up tight.

 

[Malcolm R]

The NHC and Accuweather are having a difference of opinion on what's to happen with Hurricane Jeanne:



Interesting to see who's right. Could Jeanne be the storm to visit New Orleans?

 

[Kevin Hewell]

Due to this storm and Frances I've lost three trees in my backyard (and the storm isn't done here yet). Luckily, none have hit my house. I lost the rain gutters in the front during Frances and haven't replaced them yet. We've had a bit of flooding around town so I'm staying put.

 

[Malcolm R]

So, now not only do we have Jeanne, but Karl has also formed in the far eastern Atlantic. NHC feels, however, that Karl will recurve to the north and into the central Atlantic.

They maintain the forecast for Jeanne, though, with a possible landfall near the South Carolina/Georgia border early next week.

 

[Craig S]

What's AccuWeather basing their forecast on?? All of the models support the NHC track:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...411_model.html

 

[Chris Lockwood]

> Pardon my naivete, but it's difficult for me to imagine why people need to travel 12+ hours to find shelter?

I'm assuming the person who went to Little Rock was going to stay with friends or family.


>Can someone point to a documentary that details the damage these things do in a country like the US?

Turn on most any news channel.


>Can a hurricane really put the occupants of a brick house with boarded up windows in danger?

Yes, Ivan blew down some brick buildings.


>Why are houses still built with light material in these areas?

What light material do you mean? And what areas?

 

[Holadem]

Whoa.

I never would have thought that it would be unsefe to hide in a building of that size and (apparent) strength. My goodness.

--
H

 

[John Alvarez]

People really can't appreciate the amount of power these things have until they have been through one.

Now I'm hoping that Jeanne won't be too strong when it hits here next week...:frowning:

 

[Malcolm R]

Water is very, very heavy. And they were talking about waves of 30-40 feet on top of a surge of about 20 feet. That's a wall of water the height of a 5-story building coming at you if you're near the beach.

 

[Malcolm R]

Looks like Jeanne is struggling. The 5pm advisory downgrades the system to a tropical depression. It is forecast to recover and strengthen again, but it will be a slower process than previously expected. The forecast track is highly variable at this time.

 

[mark alan]

I should not have opened my mouth. We got seven inches of rain today from Ivan. That was on top of the four inches we got from the last hurricane. The whole damn county is underwater.

 

[Kevin T]

well, my house made it thorough unscathed. the power was already on when i got home and we never lost water service. there's a few limbs in my yard but nothing big. mainly a lot of leaves. i guess i did predict it right when i asked that mobile be on the west side. i've seen some of the pictures coming out of gulf shores and pensacola. total devastation in some areas. there are even some roads covered in a 5+ feet layer of sand. crazy stuff. good luck to all the htf pensacola and baldwin county members.

kevin t

here's a pic of what ivan did to a bridge in p'cola.




here's a link to more damage photos:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6036852/

 

[nolesrule]

I believe that's I-10 over Pensacola Bay.

In Escambia County, of the 3 major E-W routes-- I-10, US-90, US-98 -- I've heard that only a total of one lane is available. The rest were destroyed or damaged into unusability by Ivan.

I'd hate to see what the bridges would have looked like if Ivan had hit Tampa Bay as predicted. As it is, some of the island residential areas on the Bay here were flooded by the storm surge as Ivan passed far to the west of us on Thurdsay.

 

[Malcolm R]

In addition to Jeanne and Karl, we now have TS Lisa. Funny to look at these all on satellite...you have big daddy Karl, medium momma Jeanne, and li'l baby Lisa. It's like a wet and windy family out there in the Atlantic.

Karl is supposed to barrel up the middle of the Atlantic, Jeanne can't make up her mind what she's going to do, and Lisa appears to possibly be headed west toward the Virgin Islands.