How long before the next format? (1 Viewer)

[Holadem]

Every so often there are speculations about the next video format, the most commonly named being HD-DVD.
I am I the only one who wishes that technology would slow down a bit so we would have to worry about replacing our collections in 5 years with the next big thing?
I got my first (and current) DVD player in Dec 99. I have about 100 DVDs today, I am a college student. When I am out of school I intend to really build it up, but I a worried that by the time I have a sizeable collection, it will be obsolete. Then I will be going around bitterly complaining about the how [insert next format] is not all that much better than DVD and blah blah... you know what I mean.
How long before the next format? I don't think the answer can be based on the past, because this whole home video thin g has not been around long enough for there to be a pattern.
--
Holadem

 

[Keith_R]

I wouldn't worry about this too much. I think HD DVD still has a ways to go before it becomes supreme ruler. First HDTV has to build a suitable market base. HD-DVD isn't even invented yet. I estimate DVD to be on the market at least 10 years before it gets replaced by something new. Look at how long VHS has stayed around. I too do wish though that technology would slow down. Bottom line just keep building up your collection and enjoy it. Who knows the specs for HD-DVD might even say play normal DVDs. Don't stop collecting on account of changing technology which isn't here yet.
-Keith-

 

[Greg_M]

HDV does exits in some forms but has not been marketed to the public (Go into Good Guys and you can watch HDV on a HV set - mostly reptiles crawling on rocks)
Until the country switches over to a HDV format (I believe we have until 2006) DVD is probably here to stay - But in five years you will probably have to start upgrading to a whole new format (DVD was only predicted to last five years when it first arrived) But many titles may not show up on HDV right away or ever.

 

[Brennan Hill]

How much better could HD-DVD be? I've seen HDTV and retail stores on big screens and it looks tremendous, but so do DVD's. Will there be that enough of a difference to motivate people to start replacing their DVD library? I know the latest technology is often irresistable, but will it be anything like the leap from VHS to DVD?
Brennan

 

[David Lambert]

You're really asking a question that belongs in the Hardware section. But I'll answer it here, and I assume a mod will move it later on!
The popularly accepted "next media" is called FMD, or Fluorescent Multilayer Discs. There is also FMC, with the "C" being "Cards".
About 2-3 weeks ago, the pioneering company of this technology, Constellation, issued a press release that they had successufully gotten FMD's and drives in a working state with HDTV systems:
http://www.c-3d.net/press56.html

 

[Will_B]

A well informed person over at Yahoo's stock market message boards shared this message today:

by: headphasechanger 09/10/01 05:46 pm
You asked for it, I'll deliver...
Just got out of a meeting with TDK people...
(I was trying to get a great price for bulk quantities of DVD-RW media out of them, to use with MyDVD type software)...
And by accident, the post-meeting topic was entirely about what is beyond the current situation with DVDs...(i.e. beyond all the recent pro SNIC press, hype and gossip)...
It has been confirmed that Sony will be introducing next year an optical media that stores 25 gigbytes on a disc with a raw playback data rate of about 70-80 megabits/sec... All made possible by the holy grail of Violet colored laser diodes (made by Nichia, which committed to building a factory to make 100,000 of these laser diodes PER MONTH)... The diodes are being sampled today to the likes of Sony...
The market that needs this technology advance (and quantity of diodes) is HDTV on a consumer disc player (NOT the Gigantic Global Grid). That is, a double sided disc will store almost an order of magnitude more information than today's simplest DVDs and the laser diode can burn at 30 milliwatts power output which is enough to record on Phase Change media... This stuff is getting very real, so the future of things that look like, and work like DVD, is stronger than ever.
Add to that all of the data that should be passed around by the promised bigger, better, newer pipes; and one must conclude that this industry is FINALLY getting ready to demand (not merely accept) software tools like Sonic has tried to dominate.
(snip)

 

[GlennH]

The move to the next format will most likely not be impeded by technical reasons, but rather political/business ones.
The studios are just hitting their stride on profiting from DVD and certainly won't be in any hurry to strongly support anything that will replace that cash cow before it's properly milked.
Furthermore, the studios really don't want you to ever own High-Definition copies of their products. They want to move to a model that will enable them to charge you for each viewing, whatever form that may take. Unless this mindset changes there will not be much support for the next generation anytime soon.
Let's see where we are in 3, 5, and 10 years.

 

[Qui-Gon John]

And data crystals are not too far off.
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Qui-Gon John

 

[Brennan Hill]

Answering my own question here a little bit. Even if the image quality is not that great a leap, it sounds like the storage capacity is. Cynically speculating here, once the studio's have released the bulk of their catalogs, what better way to make more money cheaply then re-releasing favorite titles and loading them with so many extras, people can't resist. Take Star Wars for example, make all of the versions of Star Wars available on one HD-DVD. Original release, Special Edition, widescreen of each version, pan and scam of each version, and so on, and so on. Or how about a HD-DVD with no complete film, just every bit of unused footage ever filmed, ala bloopers, cut scenes, alternate takes, etc. All of a sudden, it becomes "I've got to get HD-DVD!"

 

[David Lambert]

Even if the image quality is not that great a leap, it sounds like the storage capacity is.

You got it. The concept will be, "Why not put all the Godfather movies onto one disc instead of 5, and it will still have 'Superbit' quality bit rate".
Or an entire season of your favorite TV show on one disc. A 7-disc set will get you every episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation.
"This disc is the Star Wars films. This disc has the Dirty Harry films. This disc has the live-action Lord of the Rings trilogy, plus The Hobbit. This disc is all the Harry Potter films, from all 7 novels." Etc.
It's kinda geeky-neat, eh?
As for pay-per use models, like Divx was and Video-on-demand, I think they're doomed to, if not failure, to perhaps as much as half the market, no more. We have seen that hold-it-in-your-hands-pay-per-view like Divx won't be tolerated...it's too fustrating to "own" the item yet have to pay for it again and again. And VOD can't be put into a Christmas stocking. True, people who mostly rent will find VOD convenient, if done right. That's why I give it up to half the market.
When the studios realize this, FMD technology will move forward...if it ever even gets held up.
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DAVE/Memphis
Widescreen is Family Fun!

 

[frank manrique]

Why screw around with the old NTSC format...just give me Hi-Def DVDs, damn it!
-THTS

 

[richard plumb]

Firstly, I thought that HD was around 20 Mb/s? So 70-80 is overkill.
Secondly, that bit rate would only give you less than an hour of playing time on a 25 Gig disc, so back to square one.
Thirdly, I think studios like having separate discs for separate movies. It gives them more opportunities to sell them to you. Separate discs, nice box set for collectors.
I'm sure they'd like a full frame and OAR and all extras on one disc, but thats about all.
And when HD-DVD finally hits, we in Europe are going to get really screwed - unless forward thinking set manufacturers start building in HD support for high end European sets.

 

[Roland Wandinger]

How much better could HD-DVD be?

The two current standards used in the US, 1080i and 720 aare a lot better than plain DVD.
DVD has 345'600/414'720 (NTSC/PAL) pixels. 1080i has 2'073'600 and 720p has 921'600 pixels.
I personally can't wait for HD-DVD to come out. My projector
would even be capable to display 1080p (67kHz).

 

[MikeM]

The two current standards used in the US, 1080i and 720 aare a lot better than plain DVD.

Then again, you're speaking of strictly the technical terms. In reality, no matter how great the resolution is, wouldn't lets say the 20th Anniversary of Caddyshack DVD, still look the same?
I mean, if you have a so-so mater of some older movies, I just don't see how they could present them much better without major restoration work.
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[Chris Tinglin]

i haven't actually seen a superbit dvd yet. has anyone? is it really AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE better picture (ok, and sound) better than your typical dvd of today? if so, and you could get an entire series (trilogies, etc) on one disc, then you bet studios would go for it. if for no other reason than they could still charge as if they were separate discs, but have lower costs in only having to press one. methinks they'd have to make it backwards compatible - at least for a few years - or it simply won't catch on. the masses are still just getting used to the big diff between dvd and vhs tapes

 

[Mark_Wilson]

I watched X-Men on HBO-HD in HD last night and I couldn't tell the difference between it and DVD, on my system.

 

[Mark Zimmer]

The problem won't be the technology, it will be the content providers. There is no way in hell that the studios will make available HD masters to every Tom Dick and Harry. Just look at the paranoia that is screwing up HDTV with the firewire situation. I firmly believe that other than a possible few demo type materials that DVD is as good as any home theater movie ownership format is going to get, for this reason alone.
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"This movie has warped my fragile little mind."

 

[Roland Wandinger]

I firmly believe that other than a possible few demo
type materials that DVD is as good as any home theater movie ownership format is going to get, for this reason alone.

I hope you are wrong and that HD will widely become available for consumer. I'm not satisfied with the performance of current DVDs.
Isn't JVC in the process of introducing D-VHS machines which will have HD capability and some studios have already agreed to release prerecorded tapes in HD?

 

[Nigel McN]

How long did it take to finalise our current DVD format? I mean from the time competing formats were announced till 1 standard was decided on?

 

[Matt Perkins]

Everyone, scroll up a page and re-read Mark Zimmer's post. He's the only one who's got it right. It ain't pretty, but it's reality.
Home video (satellite, internet, whatever) will undoubtedly transcend DVD one day. But if you want to hold, own, and preserve a copy of anything Hollywood in HD, let go of that dream. The obstacle isn't technological; it's political.
Sorry for the cynicism, folks. I really wish it weren't so.