How long before the next format?

Discussion in 'Archived Threads 2001-2004' started by Holadem, Sep 10, 2001.

  1. Holadem

    Holadem Lead Actor

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    Every so often there are speculations about the next video format, the most commonly named being HD-DVD.
    I am I the only one who wishes that technology would slow down a bit so we would have to worry about replacing our collections in 5 years with the next big thing?
    I got my first (and current) DVD player in Dec 99. I have about 100 DVDs today, I am a college student. When I am out of school I intend to really build it up, but I a worried that by the time I have a sizeable collection, it will be obsolete. Then I will be going around bitterly complaining about the how [insert next format] is not all that much better than DVD and blah blah... you know what I mean.
    How long before the next format? I don't think the answer can be based on the past, because this whole home video thin g has not been around long enough for there to be a pattern.
    --
    Holadem
     
  2. Keith_R

    Keith_R Screenwriter

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    I wouldn't worry about this too much. I think HD DVD still has a ways to go before it becomes supreme ruler. First HDTV has to build a suitable market base. HD-DVD isn't even invented yet. I estimate DVD to be on the market at least 10 years before it gets replaced by something new. Look at how long VHS has stayed around. I too do wish though that technology would slow down. Bottom line just keep building up your collection and enjoy it. Who knows the specs for HD-DVD might even say play normal DVDs. Don't stop collecting on account of changing technology which isn't here yet.
    -Keith-
     
  3. Greg_M

    Greg_M Screenwriter

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    HDV does exits in some forms but has not been marketed to the public (Go into Good Guys and you can watch HDV on a HV set - mostly reptiles crawling on rocks)
    Until the country switches over to a HDV format (I believe we have until 2006) DVD is probably here to stay - But in five years you will probably have to start upgrading to a whole new format (DVD was only predicted to last five years when it first arrived) But many titles may not show up on HDV right away or ever.
     
  4. Brennan Hill

    Brennan Hill Stunt Coordinator

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    How much better could HD-DVD be? I've seen HDTV and retail stores on big screens and it looks tremendous, but so do DVD's. Will there be that enough of a difference to motivate people to start replacing their DVD library? I know the latest technology is often irresistable, but will it be anything like the leap from VHS to DVD?
    Brennan
     
  5. David Lambert

    David Lambert Executive Producer

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    You're really asking a question that belongs in the Hardware section. But I'll answer it here, and I assume a mod will move it later on! [​IMG]
    The popularly accepted "next media" is called FMD, or Fluorescent Multilayer Discs. There is also FMC, with the "C" being "Cards".
    About 2-3 weeks ago, the pioneering company of this technology, Constellation, issued a press release that they had successufully gotten FMD's and drives in a working state with HDTV systems:
    http://www.c-3d.net/press56.html
     
  6. Will_B

    Will_B Producer

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    A well informed person over at Yahoo's stock market message boards shared this message today:
     
  7. GlennH

    GlennH Cinematographer

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    The move to the next format will most likely not be impeded by technical reasons, but rather political/business ones.
    The studios are just hitting their stride on profiting from DVD and certainly won't be in any hurry to strongly support anything that will replace that cash cow before it's properly milked.
    Furthermore, the studios really don't want you to ever own High-Definition copies of their products. They want to move to a model that will enable them to charge you for each viewing, whatever form that may take. Unless this mindset changes there will not be much support for the next generation anytime soon.
    Let's see where we are in 3, 5, and 10 years.
     
  8. Qui-Gon John

    Qui-Gon John Producer

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    And data crystals are not too far off. [​IMG]
    ------------------
    Qui-Gon John
     
  9. Brennan Hill

    Brennan Hill Stunt Coordinator

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    Answering my own question here a little bit. Even if the image quality is not that great a leap, it sounds like the storage capacity is. Cynically speculating here, once the studio's have released the bulk of their catalogs, what better way to make more money cheaply then re-releasing favorite titles and loading them with so many extras, people can't resist. Take Star Wars for example, make all of the versions of Star Wars available on one HD-DVD. Original release, Special Edition, widescreen of each version, pan and scam of each version, and so on, and so on. Or how about a HD-DVD with no complete film, just every bit of unused footage ever filmed, ala bloopers, cut scenes, alternate takes, etc. All of a sudden, it becomes "I've got to get HD-DVD!"
     
  10. David Lambert

    David Lambert Executive Producer

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  11. frank manrique

    frank manrique Supporting Actor

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    Why screw around with the old NTSC format...just give me Hi-Def DVDs, damn it!
    -THTS
     
  12. richard plumb

    richard plumb Stunt Coordinator

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    Firstly, I thought that HD was around 20 Mb/s? So 70-80 is overkill.
    Secondly, that bit rate would only give you less than an hour of playing time on a 25 Gig disc, so back to square one.
    Thirdly, I think studios like having separate discs for separate movies. It gives them more opportunities to sell them to you. Separate discs, nice box set for collectors.
    I'm sure they'd like a full frame and OAR and all extras on one disc, but thats about all.
    And when HD-DVD finally hits, we in Europe are going to get really screwed - unless forward thinking set manufacturers start building in HD support for high end European sets.
     
  13. Roland Wandinger

    Roland Wandinger Stunt Coordinator

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  14. MikeM

    MikeM Screenwriter

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  15. Chris Tinglin

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    i haven't actually seen a superbit dvd yet. has anyone? is it really AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE better picture (ok, and sound) better than your typical dvd of today? if so, and you could get an entire series (trilogies, etc) on one disc, then you bet studios would go for it. if for no other reason than they could still charge as if they were separate discs, but have lower costs in only having to press one. methinks they'd have to make it backwards compatible - at least for a few years - or it simply won't catch on. the masses are still just getting used to the big diff between dvd and vhs tapes
     
  16. Mark_Wilson

    Mark_Wilson Screenwriter

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    I watched X-Men on HBO-HD in HD last night and I couldn't tell the difference between it and DVD, on my system.
     
  17. Mark Zimmer

    Mark Zimmer Producer

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    The problem won't be the technology, it will be the content providers. There is no way in hell that the studios will make available HD masters to every Tom Dick and Harry. Just look at the paranoia that is screwing up HDTV with the firewire situation. I firmly believe that other than a possible few demo type materials that DVD is as good as any home theater movie ownership format is going to get, for this reason alone.
    ------------------
    "This movie has warped my fragile little mind."
     
  18. Roland Wandinger

    Roland Wandinger Stunt Coordinator

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  19. Nigel McN

    Nigel McN Supporting Actor

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    How long did it take to finalise our current DVD format? I mean from the time competing formats were announced till 1 standard was decided on?
     
  20. Matt Perkins

    Matt Perkins Stunt Coordinator

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    Everyone, scroll up a page and re-read Mark Zimmer's post. He's the only one who's got it right. It ain't pretty, but it's reality.
    Home video (satellite, internet, whatever) will undoubtedly transcend DVD one day. But if you want to hold, own, and preserve a copy of anything Hollywood in HD, let go of that dream. The obstacle isn't technological; it's political.
    Sorry for the cynicism, folks. I really wish it weren't so.
     

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