Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 (2024) (1 Viewer)

[Tino]

I'm still sorry that the second part has been pulled from release

Temporarily pulled from release that is.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Universal just put another Minions movie on the calendar for July 2027. That's how far out release dates are being scheduled now.. The studios clearly like to have detailed plans in advance, especially as they fight for screens with other potential hits.

Given how crowded the calendar can get, it seems really odd that WB did not choose to announce a new date for Chapter 2 as part of the delay.

If they were absolutely 100% committed to a theatrical release, there would be no harm in saying, "Chapter 2 has been delayed from August 16 to such and such date." It seems very clear that this was not an oversight. They chose not to reschedule it at the present time. That suggests to me they haven't decided yet what the strategy for the next one will be.

 

[Brandon Conway]

Universal just put another Minions movie on the calendar for July 2027. That's how far out release dates are being scheduled now.. The studios clearly like to have detailed plans in advance, especially as they fight for screens with other potential hits.

Given how crowded the calendar can get, it seems really odd that WB did not choose to announce a new date for Chapter 2 as part of the delay.

If they were absolutely 100% committed to a theatrical release, there would be no harm in saying, "Chapter 2 has been delayed from August 16 to such and such date." It seems very clear that this was not an oversight. They chose not to reschedule it at the present time. That suggests to me they haven't decided yet what the strategy for the next one will be.

They're clearly going to see how VOD purchases, Max streaming and DVD/BD/UHD sales numbers pan out before announcing the Chapter 2 theatrical release date. Remember that Warner has practically nothing invested in this film, so it really means relatively little to them.

I said earlier I think the most likely result is a December/January limited roll out rather than the wide release of Chapter 1. It's basically at best an indie film now, not a tentpole like C1 was attempting, and will need to be treated as such for its release. If Costner has to choose between financing the ad buys of the C2 theatrical release (like he did for C1) or financing the productions of C3/C4 he's likely to choose the latter.

 

[Robert Saccone]

The Hateful Eight

I saw The Hateful when it came out and still have the booklet they gave out at the showing. I had no idea it was turned into a TV series. Any good references on what was done to do that and where was it shown?

 

[mskaye]

Yeah, but not as quickly as this. This sets a new record. To me it says this never should have been released in theaters to begin with. I saw it and never felt I was watching a theatrical movie. It felt like a TV show from the get go. I predict it will do better streaming than it did at the theater. It is still playing here till Friday, but not on Saturday. And it's down to one screening a day.

Now I wonder...will part two still be released theatrically? I hope so. But I'm wondering. Seems like a losing proposition, given the law of diminishing returns, even for a hit

Universal just put another Minions movie on the calendar for July 2027. That's how far out release dates are being scheduled now.. The studios clearly like to have detailed plans in advance, especially as they fight for screens with other potential hits.

Given how crowded the calendar can get, it seems really odd that WB did not choose to announce a new date for Chapter 2 as part of the delay.

If they were absolutely 100% committed to a theatrical release, there would be no harm in saying, "Chapter 2 has been delayed from August 16 to such and such date." It seems very clear that this was not an oversight. They chose not to reschedule it at the present time. That suggests to me they haven't decided yet what the strategy for the next one will be.

I think you are right. Unless they are 1000% contractually obligated to release it theatrically...listen to the podcast I linked earlier in this thread from The Town podcast. It goes into pretty non speculative detail about costs and marketing and who is out of pocket for what. But here is a pretty firm rule: if your first one is a relative "flop" your second one will do worse. They can let it hang in theaters for months but this isn't the market for letting films be slowly "discovered." This will make most of its money on premium vod and then for the streaming rights. And its not going to be a big hit in the international markets either. Quite the contrary. From Forbes: To date, Horizon has made $22.1 million worldwide. Unfortunately for Costner, only $455,610 of that total comes from international ticket sales, which means the film will have to make virtually all of its money at the domestic box office. Costner needs to find more people to put up money for the next two chapters.

 

[Tino]

I saw The Hateful when it came out and still have the booklet they gave out at the showing. I had no idea it was turned into a TV series. Any good references on what was done to do that and where was it shown?

It wasn’t turned into a series.

Netflix just expanded the film into two parts.

 

[Jake Lipson]

This will make most of its money on premium vod and then for the streaming rights.

The streaming rights are already spoken for. As with other WB releases, it will stream on HBO Max at a date to be announced. The streamer (Max) will pay the studio (WB) a license fee to put it there. So Warner Bros. will be paying itself for the rights. I'm not sure if the money will be broken up differently because WB is only distributing. But that's how it normally works. (Deadline has gotten specific about this in the past during their Most Valuable Blockbuster Tournament posts every year.)

They're clearly going to see how VOD purchases, Max streaming and DVD/BD/UHD sales numbers pan out before announcing the Chapter 2 theatrical release date.

Perhaps. But the theatrical slate isn't going to get any less busy in the fall or winter, particularly when ti comes to movies aimed at adults during awards season. They can't make these choices at the last minute and be assured that there will be screens available, particularly for a sequel to a film that has drastically underperformed.

Moving it to a specific date now would have demonstrated more confidence in the movie. They could have set a date far enough out to give audiences time to find the movie at home and still seem committed to the theatrical release, but that isn't what they've done here. If they have to wait to see how the first film does in the home market and only then decide on a new date, that implies there is a chance that they don't give it a new date. We'll see what happens.

 

[mskaye]

The streaming rights are already spoken for. As with other WB releases, it will stream on HBO Max at a date to be announced. The streamer (Max) will pay the studio (WB) a license fee to put it there. So Warner Bros. will be paying itself for the rights. I'm not sure if the money will be broken up differently because WB is only distributing. But that's how it normally works. (Deadline has gotten specific about this in the past during their Most Valuable Blockbuster Tournament posts every year.)


Perhaps. But the theatrical slate isn't going to get any less busy in the fall or winter, particularly when ti comes to movies aimed at adults during awards season. They can't make these choices at the last minute and be assured that there will be screens available, particularly for a sequel to a film that has drastically underperformed.

Moving it to a specific date now would have demonstrated more confidence in the movie. They could have set a date far enough out to give audiences time to find the movie at home and still seem committed to the theatrical release, but that isn't what they've done here. If they have to wait to see how the first film does in the home market and only then decide on a new date, that implies there is a chance that they don't give it a new date. We'll see what happens.

Understood re: streaming rights. I wasn't seeing it as a future source of income but one that has already been factored in to offset other costs - like how international presales used to work (and which were done on Horizon to some extent and good luck w that.)

 

[ManW_TheUncool]

The streaming rights are already spoken for. As with other WB releases, it will stream on HBO Max at a date to be announced. The streamer (Max) will pay the studio (WB) a license fee to put it there. So Warner Bros. will be paying itself for the rights. I'm not sure if the money will be broken up differently because WB is only distributing. But that's how it normally works. (Deadline has gotten specific about this in the past during their Most Valuable Blockbuster Tournament posts every year.)

Don't disagree w/ most of your post, but just thought it worthwhile to point out you're probably really only speaking to subscription streaming in the relatively near term me thinks... particularly as it might relate to the impact on the release of chapter/part 2 (or near term production of the rest).

Streaming can (and usually does/should) also include digital rental and sell-through, which I'm not sure "premium VOD" encompasses (outside of the initial premium period anyway). I bring that up mostly because people, especially those who generally don't buy (or maybe even rent) digitals, either forget, don't know about or simply ignore (for whatever reasons) that aspect of streaming and very often speak as though they don't exist at all (sometimes even after repeated corrections to the contrary... though not necessarily you, Jake)...

FWIW, I may very well end up buying the Apple/iTunes digital(s) for these Horizon films... w/ some outside chance of going w/ discs depending on how much I like the rest... I most likely won't be seeing this on Max before chapter/part 2 comes out (as I have no plans to reactivate subscription before circa holiday season in mid-Nov or later)...

_Man_

 

[Jake Lipson]

Streaming can (and usually does/should) also include digital rental and sell-through, which I'm not sure "premium VOD" encompasses (outside of the initial premium period anyway).

You are, of course, absolutely correct and that is a great point. Thank you for bringing it up. I should have been more specific in saying that the subscription streaming rights have gone to Max.

PVOD rentals cover the first couple of months when the movie is a premium price (like $19.99 or $24.99) because it is a recent theatrical release. But of course there will be additional rentals and sales after that period when the price comes down to a more standard rental cost. I think an industry term for digital purchases and rental revenue is "electronic sell through," but I can't point to exactly where I read that. It all ends up being revenue generated for the film though.

It is very possible that people who rent Chapter 1 could then want to go see Chapter 2 theatrically. Delaying the release of Chapter 2 so that there is time for that to happen makes sense. That could still happen if the film was moved from August 16 to a specific different date. The fact that they chose not to schedule the new date now suggests to me that they might not go theatrically for the reasons I mentioned in my previous post. It will be interesting to see what happens.

 

[Brandon Conway]

And its not going to be a big hit in the international markets either. Quite the contrary. From Forbes: To date, Horizon has made $22.1 million worldwide. Unfortunately for Costner, only $455,610 of that total comes from international ticket sales, which means the film will have to make virtually all of its money at the domestic box office.

International rights were all sold off beforehand. How it does in those markets has no direct influence on revenue for Costner & the investors as they already got the payout for it for C1 & C2.

I don't think its opened in most international markets, anyway.

 

[Tino]

I don't think its opened in most international markets, anyway.

It hasn’t.

 

[Robert Crawford]

It's more likely that Amazon got out ahead with the official release date before SDS could announce it.

Gruv has now listed the 4K/UHD release date for September 10th, so I expect Amazon and other retailers to follow soon enough.

 

[Mark Booth]

I have already preordered the digital release of Chapter 1 through iTunes. I know what I'll be watching on Tuesday!

I'm disappointed we'll have to wait longer for Chapter 2.
Mark

 

[ManW_TheUncool]

IF this next expected heatwave keeps me from feeling like trekking into Manhattan (mostly because of the hot nastiness in the subways) to do my next 3-movie marathon on any day in the coming week (and there really isn't anything quite that compelling for me to see), maybe I'll just give all 3 of my AMC A-List allocations to Horizon to help it out some bits, heh...

I do have preliminary plans for a Tues marathon... and will probably go for an Icee + popcorn (w/ this AMC deal I have), if I do brave the heat, heh...

_Man_

 

[Malcolm R]

While I had no interest in this, I'm still sorry that the second part has been pulled from release. It's a bad sign for the industry in general.

I don't think this is the "canary in the coal mine." It just means that most people, like you and me, had no interest in this.

I'm still not clear who thought this was going to be a blockbuster, or why? It's never looked like a mass-appeal type of film. I would not have expected it to gross much more than it has.

Costner hasn't really been the lead in a successful film since Message In a Bottle in 1999. Plus, this is, I think, the fifth western film he's been in since 1985? And the only one of those that was successful was Dances With Wolves. Seems like he's already done this genre multiple times with only limited success.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I'm still not clear who thought this was going to be a blockbuster, or why?

I'm guessing the answer to the first part of your question is that Kevin Costner did.

 

[Tino]

I don’t think anyone, including Costner, expected this film to be a blockbuster. A hit perhaps or at least profitable seems more likely.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Seems like he's already done this genre multiple times with only limited success.

Don't forget that Yellowstone is a western that has been a big hit for Costner on television in recent years. I think he suspected he could draw the Yellowstone audience who watch him at home to come out to the theater for this. But they don't appear to have shown up en masse. And now he is very publicly leaving the show that reinvigorated his career.

 

[Keith Cobby]

Surely pulling part 2 from the schedule will have the opposite effect to what they intend. Instead of giving folks more time to catch up with part 1, many people will not bother watching a first part if subsequent films are delayed or cancelled.