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HD-DVD outselling BD less than 3:1, not 11:1 as projected based on Amazon sales (1 Viewer)

MarekM

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how can you use same numbers for Blu-ray ?
do you have some magic link ? or you just took those 8.4 movies per Blu-ray player out of the water ?

come on Austan, you don't have any backup for that numbers...
you have 2 numbers in your counting without any backup....

- you don't know how many movies Blu-ray owner bought...
- and you put some penalty ??? 33% ? what if blu-ray owner buying almost all movies ?



Marek
 

MarekM

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- like Blu-ray camp is just STOPING to realese movies, so HD-DVD will have 5times more byt christmas right ?

- yes, you think something si not COOL, all people think same, right ? so no coolness factor at all...

- you also have statstic how many people playing DVD's on PS2, so clealry NO ONE will play BD on his PS3

- it was mentioned several times, and it seems you still didn't read it anywhere right ? 400.000 PS3 on launch in US, plust 1.5mil before end of the year.... and HD-DVD addon ? please no HDMI ?

- again you read somewhere right ? about China and other countries making HD-DVD yes ? so far nobody took any chance to produce other player, and yes lowering price yes ? like Toshiba G2 AX2 for almost same price as SONY BD player...

Marek
 

Austan

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YOU ASKED FOR IT!!!!
htf_images_smilies_chatter.gif


Warp Drive:
By the mid-24th century, the Enterprise D could travel at warp 9.8 at extreme risk, while normal maximum operating speed was warp 9.6 and maximum rated cruise was warp 9.2. The Intrepid-class starship Voyager could manage warp 9.975. Warp 10, which is at the top of the TNG era warp scale, represents infinity.

Spinal Tap:
Nigel Tufnel: The numbers all go to eleven. Look, right across the board, eleven, eleven, eleven and...
Marty DiBergi: Oh, I see. And most amps go up to ten?
Nigel Tufnel: Exactly.
Marty DiBergi: Does that mean it's louder? Is it any louder?
Nigel Tufnel: Well, it's one louder, isn't it? It's not ten. You see, most blokes, you know, will be playing at ten. You're on ten here, all the way up, all the way up, all the way up, you're on ten on your guitar. Where can you go from there? Where?
Marty DiBergi: I don't know.
Nigel Tufnel: Nowhere. Exactly. What we do is, if we need that extra push over the cliff, you know what we do?
Marty DiBergi: Put it up to eleven.
Nigel Tufnel: Eleven. Exactly. One louder.
Marty DiBergi: Why don't you just make ten louder and make ten be the top number and make that a little louder?
Nigel Tufnel: [pause, blank look and snapping chewing gum] These go to eleven.

So if you design a new star cruiser that could go to warp 11, that would be infinity +1 !!!!
htf_images_smilies_drum.gif


There's a bunch of numbers/ratios flown around and like I said early, "depending on who is spitting out those numbers/ratios, it can tell a very different story." If you look at the data, all those numbers/ratios could be possible depending on how you take your measurements.

If the average vanilla ice cream lover eats 5 gallons a year... It would also be safe to assume that the average chocolate ice cream lover would also eat 5 gallons a year. (keep in mind I'm making up these numbers also) There's no reason that a vanilla ice cream lover eats more ice cream because they love vanilla. McDonalds doesnt sell chocolate ice cream in my area, so chocolate lovers might be forced to eat vanilla thus lowering their intake of chocolate ice cream. So I would give a penality to amount of chocolate ice cream consumed because chocolate is not available in all locations.

So in the case of HD DVD vs Blu Ray buying habits, If all things are equal, I have to assume that they would buy the same amount of movies because they are both HT fans. But since there are less total movies available, no 50gb BDs and less "must have" titles, I have to give some sort of penality to Blu Ray.

If we go by 70,000 and 10,000: the ratio of players vs players is 7:1.
the 2 extremes is 11:1 and 3:1. I am just trying to show that those numbers are not far fetched. And that it possible, with some fuzzy math, to show that both ends are attainable.
 

MarekM

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ok Austan, no problem here :)

but number 3:1 then shows extremly low bying power for HD-DVD and extremly high buying power for Blu-ray in AUGUST..

Marek
 

ppltd

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Additional manufactures? At this time in the new formats life, who cares. If the PS3 and XBox sell as well as it looks like they will, the manufactures will follow.

As far as the new Toshiba costing 1000.00, that is right. But they still will have a base model for 500.00, less than half of the competing stand alone BD hardware manufacturers.

By this time next year, the entry level of these players should be down in the 150 - 200 range and at that time, all of this becomes a non-issue.
 

Seth=L

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There have been talks of HDMI being available on the Xbox 360, nothing solid though, just talk.

Just the mere fact that HD-DVD has more titles and less expensive players is pretty significant. And no offense, but comparing a Samsung Blu-Ray player to the HD-XA2 is pretty silly. Just look at the HD-XA1 or the heck the HD-A1, they are just better built.
 

MarekM

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- I did not compared any players...
- less expensive player reason will stop with PS3 and XA2 costing 1000$
- HDMI is a must for me sorry...........

Marek
 

MarekM

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Hi Thomas ;)

- if FOX will make those 50 movies before the end of year, BD camp will have more movies, of course there is a big IF, and if SONY finaly make more movies..

- yes I agree, people will watch movies on consoles PS3 and XBOX360 with addon

- well for now I am taking press release numbers as FACT, if they will be correct or true, we will see in january when statistic data will be maybe out...

- HDMI is a must for me.... so no xbox with addon....

- if there will be only xsbox with addon and no other HD-DVD players, and bd camp with ps3 and 6-8 different players, I think it's quite important....

- yes we agree on ToshibaXA2, and yes no standalone player for 500, but according some new, PS3 will be a very solid player, we will see in november if it's true, and if yes, PRICE advantage of HD-DVD camp will be gone...

- with last sentence I don't agree, with production cost of both HD-DVD and Blu-ray standalone players or PS3, your price range $150-$200 could come out in 2 years....., price of components of each product will not jump from noew around $700 to $150.

Marek
 

Sanjay Gupta

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Based on the official HD-DVD release list being maintained here --> http://www.hometheaterforum.com/htf/...d.php?t=237759
HD-DVD has currently 84 titles and 30 officially anounced for release this year. That would make it a grand total of 114 titles by year end not including TBA (rumored titles).

Based on the official Blu-Ray release list being maintained here --> http://www.hometheaterforum.com/htf/...d.php?t=237841
HD-DVD has currently 59 titles and 56 officially anounced for release this year. That would make it a grand total of 115 titles by year end not including TBA (rumored titles).

I'd be willing to bet anyone, that Blu-Ray title availability will far outstrip that of HD-DVD by the end of 1st quarter 2007. The balance of studio support is too heavily on the Blu-ray side.
 

Cees Alons

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Thanks to Warner!
Let's not forget that: none of the other big BD-"supporting" studios are releasing on both formats.


Cees
 

ppltd

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There is absolutly no data to support this. The qty of films from the competing studios is very close. I believe that the support for the two formats through 2007 will be very close. In fact, by the end of 2007, the likely hood of exclusive studio support for one side or the other is slim.
 

Sanjay Gupta

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It is not based on any scientific data but rather it is my personal opinion based on how I read the sceneraio might play out. Also, I don't think Sony/Columbia and/or Fox will throw in the towel that easily and release on HD-DVD, Disney I am not too sure off. For that to happen, Blu-Ray would have to lose the battle very decisively over the next 6 - 8 months, which I am sure everyone agrees, is most unlikely. Thus exclusive studio support is most likely to continue on until atleast the end of the 2007 holiday season, by the end of which there should be a clear victor between the two formats. Dual format players also might make their debut at that stage and thus exclusive studio support shall most probably end and even if not it shall become a moot point anyhow.
 

ppltd

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Blu-ray does not have to lose at all for this to happen. Once enough HD (from either camp) players are in the market, it is almost a given, that the studios will not give up the revenue flow by not supporting the other format. I think defections will begin well before the middle of 2007 if sales of hardware become robust over the next 3 to 4 months.
 

Sanjay Gupta

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You are forgetting, Warner and Paramount are neutral and thus that just leaves Universal vs the diversity of product provided by the Blu-Ray exclusive studios; Disney, Buena Vista, Miramax, 20th Century Fox, MGM/UA, Columbia Pictures, Sony Pictures.
 

Cees Alons

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No, of course not!
Because Warner and Paramount are neutral, you cannot count their enormous contributions out!

Their being neutral indeed means that the differences in the other studio's contributions to HD DVD and BD respectively, are more or less diluted. As a result of their neutrality, both formats tend to be more equal in this respect (and some other respects, e.g. quality of the transfers, as well).


Cees
 

Dah-Dee

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I wonder how things will change if, as rumored over on AVS, Disney/BV + Fox decide to also support (as smaller studio Lions Gate apparently is going to do) HD-DVD. Seems inevitable that, sooner than later, the "exclusively BD" group will be much smaller.
 

Rob_Walton

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There seem to be rumours of studio support changing every month or so, yet nothing changes. I'm begining to suspect certain people are starting these rumours to try and shore up support on their own format.
 

Dah-Dee

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Do you mean Toshiba/Sony starting rumours, or posters here/at AVS? If you mean posters, I don't understand that -- how is HD-DVD or BD "their own format"??? Until I heard that Disney might support HD-DVD sooner than later, I'd been considering some version of a BD player in order to have Toy Story and other great titles in HD. I don't consider HD-DVD "my format" -- it's just the format I'm currently purchasing.

I happen to believe the rumours on Disney, though. :)
 

Austan

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you just defined what "their own format" means. So how do you not understand?
 

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