Kyle McKnight
Senior HTF Member
- Joined
- Mar 8, 2001
- Messages
- 2,504
It's said that any current drive can read an FMD disc with a slight modification that would cost roughly $5-$10.
I personally think it's too early to introduce a new format to compete with DVD. DVd has finally caught on and now it's time for the studios to milk it for all it's worth. I wouldn't expect a new format that can compete with DVD too be out anytime soon personally.
I concur. When DVD was released, the market was already saturated with VHS. Nearly every film was already available on videocassette, and a VCR could be found in nearly every home.
DVD hasn't yet matured to the point that we need a new technology to replace it. Sure, DVDs aren't perfect, but they are more than sufficient for 99% of the public. The players are finally starting to become affordable to everyone, and disc prices are gradually getting lower. There are still thousands of films not yet available on DVD, and some directors want to delay releasing their films on DVD because they believe that acceptance of the format is not yet widespread. Computers are finally starting to release more DVD-ROM applications. DVD-based digital camcorders are becoming more and more popular. DVD writers (DVD-R/RW) are getting cheaper, and blank media prices are dropping.
In my opinion, studios/companies won't release a new format until the public is ready to adopt it. Considering that DVDs have been around since 1996, I believe 10-15 years is a reasonable lifetime for DVD before the market embraces a new technology with open arms.
Besides, even if the public one day accepts a new HD-DVD format, I'm pretty sure that the majority will still want their movies in pan-and-scan.
The last thing that a major studio would EVER want people to have is '35mm quality' digital copies of movies. Because when we have that... that's that, they will have to close up shop, because there would be no reason for us to upgrade anymore.
Basically, HD-DVD would put the studios out of business... it will never happen.
Rob Lutter...my friend...I love you, but quite simply this myth has got to be dispelled.
No offense, but you're not quite on-target there. I've read this idea time and again, not only here on HTF but in other places.
Does a copy of the novel "Foundation" by Isaac Asimov not sell anymore, because the publisher (Bantam) has already released copies that are equal to the original's?
Do you expect that noone will want to ever buy at retail again a copy of the Ms. Pac-Man videogame, just because you could get since the days of the first NES console a verion of the game equal to the original coin-op?
New humans are born and grow up every day who've never had these things before. Folks who never got copies of catalog items "finally" pick them up all the time, because they finally ran into it when they have money in their pocket. Idiots who own something but spilled a plate of spaghetti on it have to replace stuff all the time. People watch/read/play something, decide they're done with it and trade it for something else, and then they miss it and re-buy it.
It doesn't MATTER if the quality is as good as the original 35MM prints on an HD-DVD. There will still be consumers to buy and re-buy the same group of HD-DVD's time and again, because noone can ever own everything. Folks will still see films in theaters that they have on home video, because they want the "theater experience". Folks will still go see new films at the cinemas that aren't out on home video yet, and then the same folks will buy them when they hit on the shiney disc (or clear disc, if it's FMD technology).
Shit will happen, a scratch will be made, a box will get busted, a kid will sit on it or step on it, a careless friend will drop a decorative dagger on it when they borrow it, whatever.
Also, it doesn't hurt for this scenario to boost sales:
* Here's the bare-bones Star Wars films on HD-DVD
* Here they are with some supplements
* Here they are with mega-supplements
* Here are the bare-bones films in Hi-Def TOGETHER ON ONE DISC!
* Here's the Star Wars sexology again on one disc, but with George's commentary track
* Here's the last thing again, but edited into one long film!
* etc., etc., et al
In the future, I weill even bet that some discs will be assigned as "required viewing" in class, much like they make the kids read certain books now (like The Scarlet Letter). Who wants to buy The Adventures of Robin Hood or Mister Roberts as part of a High School "literature" class? Not the average kid, probably, so they will buy these titles cheap and then sell them off or trade them in once the course is over, like kids (or their parents) do now with books like "A Separate Peace". Don't be surprised; studios might push this into curriculum much like book publishers did 2-3 decades ago (I worked for a national book chain at the time this concept suddenly became..."popular" ).
No, there's no reason for studios to close up shop and shut down once the "salad days" of DVD adoption are over. They will indeed cash in for now, and do so however they are able to. The economy is otherwise bad, and opportunities like this don't last forever. "Make hay while the sun shines" is the motto...witness the fullscreen re-releases going on at Fox .
The fact that ANY studios are willing to release D-VHS hi-def films at all indicates a willingness to go down the road of HD-DVD when the time is right. The idea that they would bring films like the "Terminator" flicks, "The Sound of Music", and "Galaxy Quest" to the table in Hi-Def is a sign that their most vital properties are fair game for the upgrade.
I guarantee you, Rob, that once the studios have "milked and bilked" DVD for all the dough it can be worth, they will gladly re-sell you the same things all over again on FMD or HD-DVD or whatever.
For the most part, Joe 6-Pack doesn't care about the higher quality of DVD over VHS, right? J6P is great with P&S, doesn't scream if the video is murky or grainy, won't holler about a bastardized 5.1-only soundtrack on a classic film that was released in mono originally, and just plain doesn't care about anything else except keeping up with the Jones. Period.
Yeah, the studios will go THERE, all right.
No, there's no reason for studios to close up shop and shut down once the "salad days" of DVD adoption are over.
I agree. I heard that studios had similar fears when VHS and Beta came out.