HD-DVD could be a reality right now...with FMD (1 Viewer)

[DaViD Boulet]

FMD (flourescent multilayer disc) technology has already been perfected the point of being ready for production...if the industry would simply choose to use it.
In case you're not already aware of what FMD is I'll sum it up quickly: It's a transparent (vs reflective) technology that can store up to (more?) than 40 giga-bytes on a standard sized 5" disc...all by using the same red laser currently used for today's SD-DVDs. Not only is the storage capacity of this technology far and away superior to any "blue laser" or other new high-density technology for disc storage, but the Bandwidth for data retreival is immense. You could literally store uncompressed (or mildly compressed, like D-cinema uses) HD 1080P images with uncompressed 7 channel DSD or 24/192 audio. Not to mention you still have room for some deleted scenes and a comentary or two
I want to make the point that the "HD DVD won't be possible for another 5 years" is a lie by the studios who have all been developing their *own* in-house systems based on blue-laser technolgy, which offers only an incremental gain in storage capacity over standard red-laser DVDs while increasing costs, having a shorter life-span, and being more difficult to replicate.
These studios, like Panasonic, Sony, and others, don't want to use FMD because they want to use their *own* (bad) systems based on the blue-lasers they've been investing research in for so long.
So because of this stubborness on the part of the HD-disc minded studios, we now have to watch HD movies being made available on D-VHS when the optical disc solution, that no studio seems to want, is already here.
It's not copyright issues that are delaying HD-DVD...D-VHS proves that. It's the blue-laser with all it's problems, limitations, and only incremental gains that the studios who'e been developing HD-DVD platforms have been working on for so long and refuse to part with, even if it means ignoring the optical disc format that would be the true holy-grail of home-theather-- FMD
-dave

 

[Kyle McKnight]

I've been following FMD for quite a while now....glad to see it's finally hitting a high point. Lets put it to good use

 

[Jack Briggs]

There was a good story about FMD in a recent issue of Widescreen Review.

Question is: Will the public readily accept yet another home-video format in a confusing age of technological transition?

The technology, however, is intriguing.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Well,

if we're *going* to introduce a new HD-DVD format *anyway*...why not do it right with FMD? How would a blue-laser format be less confusing?

Since FMD discs use the same layer, it makes it easy (and cheap) to make the FMD players backwards compatible with today's DVD software...no dual layer issues.

-dave

 

[Jeff Ulmer]

I haven't been following recently, but it does seem that FMD - if it works - makes much more sense than blue laser technology. I can see that there will be some strong opposition to FMD, especially if no one company holds a special interest in it (like Warner and DVD). With D-VHS just being really launched, I doubt any hi-def disc based format will be released anytime soon, as the studios haven't finished milking us on standard definition DVD yet. If I were a studio exec, I would want far more catalogue sales out there on DVD before reselling everything once more on H-DVD. On the flip side, if they were to use far less compression on FMD, the sheer size of files would make them nearly impossible to duplicate conveniently in the pirate realms. Even with broadband internet, downloading 5 or 6 gigs (or more - I forget the limitation of FMD) per film is unreasonable, at least in the short term.

I just wish I had bought FMD stock at $.05 a share....

 

[Brian-W]

FMD (flourescent multilayer disc) technology has already been perfected the point of being ready for production

According to Constellation (CDDD), it won't be ready for production until 3Q next year, and on a limited basis. There are still a lot of unknowns, etc.

What is needed is a computer company to adopt FMD in order to drive this to market. No hardware company is going to gamble on technology if it's not going to receive support.

-Brian

 

[Rob Lutter]

The problem with FMD is not the technology... it is the studios. Why are the studios in business? Money. Pure and simple... money.
The last thing that a major studio would EVER want people to have is '35mm quality' digital copies of movies. Because when we have that... that's that, they will have to close up shop, because there would be no reason for us to upgrade anymore.
Basically, HD-DVD would put the studios out of business... it will never happen.
I am not trying to be negative... I hope to high hell that someday I could own an High-Def copy of one of my favorite movies, but I don't find it realistic that the studios would 'shoot themselves in the foot' by releasing it to the mainstream (what DVD has become).

 

[DaViD Boulet]

What is needed is a computer company to adopt FMD in order to drive this to market. No hardware company is going to gamble on technology if it's not going to receive support.

Excellent point Brian.

What has helped drive the success of DVD is the DVD-ROM applications and drives for PCs. FMD would need a similar scenario to really succeed as a technology.

 

[RobR]

The last thing that a major studio would EVER want people to have is '35mm quality' digital copies of movies. Because when we have that... that's that, they will have to close up shop, because there would be no reason for us to upgrade anymore.

Studios would still have control over the supplemental material they put on discs. Many people upgrade just to get the extras. I'm betting they will first release bare-bone FMDs, then SE FMDs.

 

[DaveF]

What has helped drive the success of DVD is the DVD-ROM applications and drives for PCs.

I disagree -- there are precious few DVD-ROM based applications for computers. And they are fairly new; certainly not something that drove early adopters.

PC-DVD may have been important for helping DVD movies accepted by early adopters. But I think there's been very little benefit for the user, besides that.

 

[Michael St. Clair]

I disagree -- there are precious few DVD-ROM based applications for computers. And they are fairly new; certainly not something that drove early adopters.

Agreed, DVD-Rom is pretty much a failure.

Not only that, but I have noticed that among my peers that people who do not own a stand-alone DVD player and only play movies on a PC drive almost always have tiny collections if any at all. They have 'The Matrix' and 'Episode 1', and they rent or borrow a handful of titles a year (often to watch on their laptop on business trips).

 

[DaViD Boulet]

You forget that even DVD movies are "applications" for DVD-drives in computers.

I know lots of people who watch DVD movies on their PC...some of whom don't even have a regular dvd player.

I think the mass-production of DVD drives, for both PCs and stand-alone players helped keep the transport costs down.

-dave

 

[Michael St. Clair]

David,

Well, you know different kinds of people than I do. I work in the IT and marketing fields and nobody I know with a PC DVD drive and no stand-alone drive is doing anything to generate meaningful studio revenue.

 

[Jack Briggs]

"...as the studios haven't finished milking us on standard definition DVD yet..."

There's something about the sardonic way Jeff's sentence is worded that brings a smile to my face. But it's the reality. Whichever high-def optical format is adopted, I just bet you it starts as a limited, niche market, sort of a LaserDisc-type of elitism in comparison to standard DVD.

(I can see the possibilities: We purists and snobs would go for whatever high-def format is out there, whether it's FMD or blue laser-based DVD, while the J6Ps stick with standard-def DVD and pan-and-scan transfers. It's a Darwinistic approach to the marketplace, where the "riff-raff" are weeded out and only the elitists remain, savoring their high-def, OAR images.)

DaViD: You very clearly want something like this to come about soon. I can hardly wait, too. But the studios, being the way they are, will make the consumers wait for a long, long time.

 

[Michael St. Clair]

Whichever high-def optical format is adopted, I just bet you it starts as a limited, niche market, sort of a LaserDisc-type of elitism in comparison to standard DVD.

It has to start as a niche, because the display device is the bottleneck. Most US households don't have an HD set to take advantage of a new format, optical or not.
5 years from now that will still be the case (I know this is an unpopular assessment, but it is true).
HD-DVD could come out today and standard DVD sales would still be higher five years from now.
They don't have to milk the existing format when the display device bottleneck insures it lasts for years.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Heck,
they could find a way to encode *both* HD *and* SD signals on the same disc...and make the disc backwards compatible with today's SD-players if they *really* wanted.
Single software stock. Pick your player based on your preferences and taste.
In any case, even HD-DVD players could downconvert for NTSC displays, and even more important, *upconvert* SD-DVD software -- 960P anyone???
-dave

 

[Bryant Frazer]

The C3D cheerleaders, I fear, overestimate the ease with which these discs can be manufactured. I've had private conversations with DVD replicators who expressed serious doubt that manufacturing a disc made of so many thin layers would ever be cost-effective.

Early last year, C3D was working with Toolex to commercialize their FMD disc. Last summer, they switched and began working with WAMO. No solid news -- except updates on new financing -- since July. The launch date for manufacturing discs continues to slip backward. Wall Street is not impressed (the company's stock is currently at $0.71, down from a 52-week high of around $11). To say that this company is actually ready to launch FMD discs for consumer-entertainment applications seems awfully optimistic to me.

Anything can happen in the long run, but as long as they're proven technologically feasible I think you're more likely to see one of the blue-laser systems currently under development at various DVD Forum member companies (you know, the guys who make these decisions, and who coincidentally want to ensure that their patents are chosen as the foundation for any new industry standards) become the eventual contender.

-bf-

 

[Joe Schwartz]

They could find a way to encode *both* HD *and* SD signals on the same disc...and make the disc backwards compatible with today's SD-players if they *really* wanted.

Not with FMD, they can't. If I understand the technology correctly, today's DVD players would be physically unable to read an FMD disc.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

You could possibly have the transparent layers for the FMD player to read terminated by a final "reflective" layer for a regular DVD drive. The regular DVD drive would simply "read through" the flourescent layers and only pick up the reflected light from it's own layer.

-dave

 

[Jack Briggs]

DaViD: You want this technology so badly you can taste it, I bet! JB