Jason_Els
Screenwriter
- Joined
- Feb 22, 2001
- Messages
- 1,096
Block booking, declining margins, declining sales, decreased service, increasing costs, broadband internet, quantum encryption, presentation technology.
I predict that movie theaters will be die within the next 10 years.
Imagine that broadband internet is commonplace, that encryption works, that home theater equipment is easier, cheaper, and far better than we have now. Imagine the incentive to charge full ticket price for a movie yet not have to give the movie theater a cut.
Imgaine not having to leave your home to see first-run movies. Instead you queue a first-run film that morning or the week or month before for download and while you're at work or you sleep the movie you want, in full resolution and sound, is delivered to your Tivo-type device. Now say they charged $15-$20 for the first viewing but progressively less for subsequent viewings in the following days.
From where I sit I can see this happening. I work in the broadband division for a major cable company and while VOD is having some startup fits, I don't see any incentive for studios (particularly those owned by the vertical media companies) to keep theaters as middle-men to media delivery. Even those companies that own studios and theaters together can see that eliminating the theater removes a major cost source yet won't detract from their revenues. The viewer can see an opening movie that night, can pause, rewind, or even hold the film for viewing at a later time should something come-up.
As I see it, theaters are doomed. Sure a few discount cinemas or specialty cinemas (drive-ins, restored palaces) will exist for novelty reasons, but the days of the mall googleplex will be over. Already audiences are used to the diminished screen size, the unruly patrons, extorionate candy prices, third world bathrooms, improper matting, dim bulbs, dirty screens, parking hassles, and the effort of actually going someplace. About the only thing that has improved is the sound but even then a decent home theater system can sound better and the average person (as witnessed by the popularity of full-screen rentals) would be just as happy as with a HT-in-a-box and a 27" or larger TV and see the convenience of home-viewing as a welcome compromise from the theater experience.
Already some theaters with digital projectors are receiving their films via satellite download. It's no stretch to imagine home viewers could get the same result with good compression and enctyption.
I'd like to get some opinions on this vision of a brave new future of cinema, particularly any reasons why it might not work out the way I see it. I, for one, won't lament this situation but I'm sure some people will.
I predict that movie theaters will be die within the next 10 years.
Imagine that broadband internet is commonplace, that encryption works, that home theater equipment is easier, cheaper, and far better than we have now. Imagine the incentive to charge full ticket price for a movie yet not have to give the movie theater a cut.
Imgaine not having to leave your home to see first-run movies. Instead you queue a first-run film that morning or the week or month before for download and while you're at work or you sleep the movie you want, in full resolution and sound, is delivered to your Tivo-type device. Now say they charged $15-$20 for the first viewing but progressively less for subsequent viewings in the following days.
From where I sit I can see this happening. I work in the broadband division for a major cable company and while VOD is having some startup fits, I don't see any incentive for studios (particularly those owned by the vertical media companies) to keep theaters as middle-men to media delivery. Even those companies that own studios and theaters together can see that eliminating the theater removes a major cost source yet won't detract from their revenues. The viewer can see an opening movie that night, can pause, rewind, or even hold the film for viewing at a later time should something come-up.
As I see it, theaters are doomed. Sure a few discount cinemas or specialty cinemas (drive-ins, restored palaces) will exist for novelty reasons, but the days of the mall googleplex will be over. Already audiences are used to the diminished screen size, the unruly patrons, extorionate candy prices, third world bathrooms, improper matting, dim bulbs, dirty screens, parking hassles, and the effort of actually going someplace. About the only thing that has improved is the sound but even then a decent home theater system can sound better and the average person (as witnessed by the popularity of full-screen rentals) would be just as happy as with a HT-in-a-box and a 27" or larger TV and see the convenience of home-viewing as a welcome compromise from the theater experience.
Already some theaters with digital projectors are receiving their films via satellite download. It's no stretch to imagine home viewers could get the same result with good compression and enctyption.
I'd like to get some opinions on this vision of a brave new future of cinema, particularly any reasons why it might not work out the way I see it. I, for one, won't lament this situation but I'm sure some people will.