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Coronavirus makes Universal go day and date for home starting friday! (1 Viewer)

ManW_TheUncool

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AMC is at least getting a cut of the PVOD revenue though. OTOH, don't know what that'll mean for other smaller theater chains, et al.

_Man_
 

Wayne_j

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Wouldn't a 45 day window make more sense than suddenly dropping to 17 days from 90?
 

Jake Lipson

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I said this in the Tenet thread in response to whether WB will follow suit with that film, but I guess it's more relevant here. The problem is that once this starts happening, audiences will catch on, and then it will impact audience decisions about what to see and what not to see in theaters. So, even if they don't announce intent to collapse the window beforehand, it will absolutely be noticed that movies are coming home faster than ever. Although I would take advantage of it for films that come out before the pandemic is over, I think this is a terrible decision which will have long-lasting negative impacts on the future of the theatrical industry. It will be very difficult, if not impossible, to put the genie back in the bottle after COVID if this is a success, which makes the threat to movie theaters more dire than ever before.

I'm going to pull out an example that I don't like, but it is an effective one. Remember back in 2017 when The Greatest Showman opened in the wake of The Last Jedi and Jumanji? It had an ~$8 million opening weekend and everyone wrote it off as a bomb. But it kept playing and playing and playing because word got around that it was really good, and people discovered it over the course of its run. Now, I still don't understand the appeal of that movie at all, but whether I liked it or not the fact remains that it turned from a flop into a hit over the course of its run. If that was released under this new model, it would have just been dumped on VOD in 17 days because its initial receipts were not great, and it wouldn't have been in a position to make the long-term impact or anywhere near as much total gross as it had. More recently, Knives Out last year had better reviews and bigger buzz going into its release than The Greatest Showman did, but its $26 million was only 16.2% of its total domestic gross. I saw Knives Out on Thanksgiving, and then I went back again in January this year. My theater kept playing it until the week before its Blu-ray release in February. There is no way it would have had such a lengthy theatrical run if it was available quickly on VOD. So even if AMC gets a cut of the VOD revenue, they're making less money than they would with a long, leggy theatrical hit.

If this deal sticks, it's going to be even more slanted toward big films making a big impact in the first weekend or two and then disappearing from big screens. There won't be room for word of mouth in the theatrical marketplace anymore.

I find that deeply upsetting.
 

Cranston37+

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Let's not lose sight of the fact that this is just an option to release on PVOD at 17 days. If a movie is performing well, they will keep it in theaters at let it ride. They just want to be able to put it on PVOD if it makes sense for that release.

Also remember that this does not effect the timeframe for titles being made available for purchasing or regular price rentals. This is only $20+ premium rentals. Many people might still go to the theater at 17 days rather than pay $20 for a rental.
 

Josh Steinberg

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I believe it is _ending_

I have literally been posting “moviegoing as we know it is ending” for years here.

It’s no longer the cheapest, easiest, most convenient, and in many cases, best quality way to see a movie and hasn’t been for years. Everything other than the blockbuster and zero budget film has basically evolved into premium long form television. The only thing theaters have had is the leverage of seeing it first, and how long is that sustainable when it’s already two or three months from opening to home digital before the pandemic?
 

Jake Lipson

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Let's not lose sight of the fact that this is just an option to release on PVOD at 17 days. If a movie is performing well, they will keep it in theaters at let it ride. They just want to be able to put it on PVOD if it makes sense for that release.

To go back to my Greatest Showman example, it wasn't performing well at the beginning of its release. Its success came later into its run once word got around that people actually liked it. That won't happen if PVOD is in play because, purely going on its first couple of weekends, it didn't look like a hit in the making.

This will only widen the gap between the big films with what Josh calls "weaponized spoilers" that have to be seen right away to maintain the surprise, and everything else.
 

Cranston37+

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To go back to my Greatest Showman example, it wasn't performing well at the beginning of its release. Its success came later into its run once word got around that people actually liked it. That won't happen if PVOD is in play because, purely going on its first couple of weekends, it didn't look like a hit in the making.

For that example you are absolutely right, but The Greatest Showman was certainly an exception, not the rule, for the box office trajectory movies usually take.

I'm curious to see what kind of experimenting they do with prices and dates, and what adjustments they make accordingly. A $19.99 rental for "No Time to Die" 1 month after release, announced 3 weeks after release as to not stunt those first weeks' BO numbers? How about only 2 weeks after release but $29.99? Crunch the numbers after and see what made sense....
 

Jake Lipson

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For that example you are absolutely right, but The Greatest Showman was certainly an exception, not the rule, for the box office trajectory movies usually take.

Of course it is. But that's the problem. It won't be possible for those exceptions to be found in an environment like this. They are rare, but when they do come about it creates a real zeitgeist movie, and that won't happen with this model.

AMC would never have agreed to this even a couple months ago. For evidence of that, we need only to look at their response to the Trolls situation. The pandemic has backed them into a corner, and they're so desperate to survive at all that they've gone and done something desperate that will ultimately further damage their industry.

We'll see what happens. But I'm not optimistic.
 

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Let's not lose sight of the fact that this is just an option to release on PVOD at 17 days. If a movie is performing well, they will keep it in theaters at let it ride. They just want to be able to put it on PVOD if it makes sense for that release.
The problem is that the habit of going to movies has been broken by the pandemic. Many people will never get back in the habit because they now have an option to stay home especially with the potential for getting sick still very real. Introducing a way for people to see new theatrical features in their home will all but guarantee that many people will never go back to the theaters even after a vaccine is available.

It's like 15 (?) years ago when Netflix started getting popular and Blockbuster was basically obsolete in a few years. This is apocalyptically bad for theaters. It's also going to be terrible for the artform of movies because it's going to make studios take even less chance on smaller movies and make it even harder for the ones that do get made to be seen.
 

Jake Lipson

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Another example that pops into my head is Booksmart.

I thought the trailer for Booksmart looked awful. You can check the thread. I was not interested. I didn't bother to go in the first week or the second week. It took a while for a friend of mine to convince me that it was worth going to after all. It ended up being one of my favorite movies of last year. If it had gone to VOD in this accelerated window instead of sticking around long enough for me to change my mind, I would likely not have seen it.
 

Cranston37+

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Another example that pops into my head is Booksmart.

I thought the trailer for Booksmart looked awful. You can check the thread. I was not interested. I didn't bother to go in the first week or the second week. It took a while for a friend of mine to convince me that it was worth going to after all. It ended up being one of my favorite movies of last year. If it had gone to VOD in this accelerated window instead of sticking around long enough for me to change my mind, I would likely not have seen it.

But 1) Why couldn't you have still seen it in the theater? Being available PVOD doesn't have to mean it gets pulled from theaters and 2) Why wouldn't you have just discovered it at home?
 

Jake Lipson

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But 1) Why couldn't you have still seen it in the theater? Being available PVOD doesn't have to mean it gets pulled from theaters

Yes it would. The theaters won't play something that isn't making them money, and once the PVOD switch gets flipped, people will stay home more, which will cause the box office gross to diminish and the movie to get pulled.

2) Why wouldn't you have just discovered it at home?

Because I wouldn't have paid ~$20 for a rental of something I wasn't sure about. I eventually went and paid $8 for the theater screening, but $20 is too high unless it's something I absolutely know I'm going to love.
 

TravisR

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Yes it would. The theaters won't play something that isn't making them money, and once the PVOD switch gets flipped, people will stay home more, which will cause the box office gross to diminish and the movie to get pulled.
Yeah, small movies never last long anyway but they'll definitely yank the small stuff once it switches to VOD.



Because I wouldn't have paid ~$20 for a rental of something I wasn't sure about. I eventually went and paid $8 for the theater screening, but $20 is too high unless it's something I absolutely know I'm going to love.
That's what it comes down to me too. Sure, a franchise or filmmaker that I like, I'll pay $20 for. And if I heard alot of good buzz about a movie, I'd take a chance but there's been a ton of movies that I've seen & enjoyed that I haven't much or anything about that I never would have paid $20 to see.
 

Cranston37+

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Yes it would. The theaters won't play something that isn't making them money, and once the PVOD switch gets flipped, people will stay home more, which will cause the box office gross to diminish and the movie to get pulled.

CNN

"For Universal, the studio is given the choice to release films for at home rental and purchases much faster than it has in the past. It can also keep films in theaters past the 17-day mark."

"That doesn't mean, however, that "F9" will pop up on NBCUniversal's new streaming service on day 18, but rather that consumers can choose to watch it on a platform like iTunes at a premium price or in theaters."

Again, when given the choice between a $10 ticket and a $20 rental, I don't think it will be as seismic a shift as feared. People still like just going out. If purchases and $5 rentals came after 17 days, it would be different.
 
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TravisR

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CNN

"For Universal, the studio is given the choice to release films for at home rental and purchases much faster than it has in the past. It can also keep films in theaters past the 17-day mark."


"That doesn't mean, however, that "F9" will pop up on NBCUniversal's new streaming serviceon day 18, but rather that consumers can watch it on a platform like iTunes at a premium price or in theaters."
Movies are front loaded. Almost nothing has legs any more. I bet that even a movie like Avengers made more than half of its entire box office total in 17 days. Day 17 might as well be day 117 for theaters. Combine front loaded movies with an option to see it at home and anything after the third weekend is scraps.
 

TravisR

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Movies are front loaded. Almost nothing has legs any more. I bet that even a movie like Avengers made more than half of its entire box office total in 17 days. Day 17 might as well be day 117 for theaters. Combine front loaded movies with an option to see it at home and anything after the third weekend is scraps.
Just out of curiosity, I took a look at Box Office Mojo and in the first 17 days of its run, Avengers: End Game made $723,745,643 (of a $858,373,000 domestic total). It ran 140 days total so in its last 123 days, it made $134,627,357 which is about 15% of its total. Making 85% of its total in the first 17 days sounds good for theaters BUT the problem is that that number will start dropping and never come back once people realize that if they wait less than three weeks, they can see the movie in their home and if it's a family or a group, they'll save money compared to what tickets cost them.
 

Cranston37+

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BUT the problem is that that number will start dropping and never come back once people realize that if they wait less than three weeks, they can see the movie in their home and if it's a family or a group, they'll save money compared to what tickets cost them.

One key point people keep missing - "Of note, Universal cannot announce if a film will launch on PVOD platforms until after the second weekend of its theatrical release.”

Moviegoers won't be able to assume that every movie will go to PVOD on exactly Day 17.

This is an option. And the 17 days thing is a starting point. A movie might never go to PVOD at all. It may go to it but it maybe at the 45th day.

And most importantly, nobody will know what what it will be when the movie opens.
 
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Neil S. Bulk

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My favorite theater charges $14 a ticket, so I'm paying $28 when my wife and I go to the movies. When you add on parking and food, a $20 rental that keeps us healthy is a fair price for a diminished home viewing.

I'll really miss the movie theater popcorn though.
 

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