CES HD DVD Event Cancelled (1 Viewer)

[Dan Keefe]

Ouch...really doesn't look good at this point. Its like watching Britney Spears life unfold before our eyes.

http://wesleytech.com/ces-hd-dvd-eve...ouncement/483/

“Based on the timing of the Warner Home Video announcement today, we have decided to postpone our CES 2008 press conference scheduled for Sunday, January 6th at 8:30 p.m. in the Wynn Hotel. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.

We are currently discussing the potential impact of this announcement with the other HD DVD partner companies and evaluating next steps. We believe the consumer continues to benefit from HD DVD’s commitment to quality and affordability – a bar that is critical for the mainstream success of any format.

We’ll continue to keep you updated on new developments around HD DVD.”

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Frankly, this surprised me. I would have thought that Toshiba/HD DVD would have maintained their presence at CES, but I can imagine the barage of questions they'll get pounded with by unsypathetic press reporters so I can see the motivation to wait until a strategy has been prepared for responding.

 

[Marc Colella]

This was mentioned in the other thread.

Honestly, what is Toshiba going to say or do - especially with such short notice? It's over... no point in charades.

 

[Romier S]

Pretty much. Very little to be suprised about as the HD DVD Group has little to say at this point. It's hard to go on beating the drums about HD DVD's future when you 've been dealt the kind of ugly card they recieved yesterday. Still, I'm interested to see what Universal, Paramount do in the aftermath.

 

[Paul.S]

Per Variety, WHV was to have played a role in this press conference, promoting their 2008 HD DVD slate. That they were upstaged by the bigger story that is the WHV shift is what I surmise is the reason for the cancellation, not because NA HD DVD PG, Universal and Par/DW have nothing to say about the purported 'writing on the wall.'

 

[Dave Moritz]

I figure that Both Universal and Paramount will do one of two things. They will ether remain HD-DVD only which is most likely for the time being. Or they could be a big board meeting after CES is over. Universal Pictures has been a strong supporter of HD-DVD but after WB announced it's switch to Blu-ray. How long will Universal remain HD-DVD only? Universal has be seriously considering releasing there movie titles on the Blu-ray format at this point. Unless Toshiba can pull a rabit out of there hat it looks like WB put one of the last nails in HD-DVD coffin. I have been very happy with my HD-DVD movies but it does not look good for Toshiba right now. And since the Toshiba cancled there press conference at CES I would say that Toshiba is now considering what move if any they can make, or if they might consider defeat or not?

How many people are going to rush out in 08' and buy a player and the movies to go with it, now that there are basically only two studios in HD-DVD's corner? If I had not purchased my HD-DVD player over a year ago I would not be buying one now. I am how ever very interested in what Toshiba does next after CES is over. I would not be suprised if Sony is not talking to Universal in private right now or is trying to coax them to go neutral. One thing is for certain that Sony will be celibrating WB's defection to Blu-ray and there CES press conference should be very interesting.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Universal has been producing test-discs on Blu-ray Disc. Naturally this doesn't prove anything about their plans... but it does indicate that they've investigated BD authoring to see what it's about. A likely conclusion would be that they're keeping their options open, and making sure they're able and nimble to make decisions as they need to. My bet: they'll go dual-format within a few months at the longest (but not give up HD DVD production).

 

[Dave Moritz]

I agree DaViD I do not see Universal dropping HD-DVD, but I do think they will go format neutral very soon. I feel it would be the equivelent of a death blow to Toshiba's HD-DVD if Universal announced going format neutral during CES.

Did anyone catch the entire MS keynote, I think it started late and I ended up missing at least 20 minute of it? Did MS mention HD-DVD at all in there keynote at CES?

 

[Paul_Scott]

what do Paramount and Universal lose by remaining exclusive? Their little slice of the 2%, but soon to be 6% HDM pie? The capability of selling Patch Adams or 25 year old catalog titles to the PS3 demographic?

If I were them I would make Sony and the BDA pay dearly for sewing up all the studio support. Otherwise they have very little to gain now that when the format is still in its infancy. If I were them, I would bet on it continuing to be a niche for quite a while, and not be seduced by the BDA when it dangles a token incentive now, vs no incentive later.

The thing for them (and Toshiba) to remember is that they still have a captive audience, and tens of thousands of single format users who will not now immediately turn around and purchase a Bd player. These people might continue to support the format they bought into though- if there continues to be new content for them to buy.

The thing Toshiba needs to do now is retool its message.
and get dual format players made.

 

[Romier S]

Yes, utterly boring for the most part (even from the standpoint of a gamer) and nothing at all mentioned on the HD DVD front that I caught (though not unexpected considering Toshiba barely talked about it).

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Hmm. I have a PS3. I'm 36 years old and don't have a single video game. Just movies. Including lots of classics.

But to your main point...

yes I agree. While this whole HD-disc format is in its infancy, there's not much profit to be gained at all. They could sit it out like many studios did with DVD...watched and waited or just released a few test-discs until things started to ramp up.

I think that now that the dice have been cast, the sales should start to ramp up. I don't think it will be too long before Paramount and Universal decide it's time to cash in on potential HD sales on BD... though I agree that at the moment there's no strong profit to motivate the move.

 

[Paul_Scott]

David I would be suprised if 36 yrs old + no games makes up the main demographic for the PS3 format.

as to what Parmaount and Universal would lose not publishing on Bd in the next year-18 months...about the same amount Fox loses for all the titles it announces and cancels. It is going to be a while if ever before Bd is in a healthy and robust position. If those two studios want to be well compensated for helping Bd get to that point, fine. But I wouldn't sell myself cheap in the process.

Here is something to think about- what if the sales ratio to this point has been HEAVILY influenced by BOGOs? If these don't continue at what rate does the format then grow? If HD DVD is honestly cheaper to produce content on- then I think Universal should do the opposite of what is expected and kick content out left, right, and center. They may not move many new players or pick up many new supporters in the short term- but there are still enough units in the field to make money off of- and more importantly, the bulking up of the exclusive HD DVD catalog makes the format more viable in the long term. If at the end of 2008 there are 500 titles from Universal alone on the format and none on Bd...then HD DVD capability becomes a desireable feature for a person looking for a new Bd player.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Hey Paul,

I saw a chart that plotted sales week by week of both formats and it seemed that the BOGO sales did affect volume, but with BD it was very slight whereas with HD DVD it caused some sharp spikes. I'll see if I can dig that chart up. But it was interesting... maybe because HD DVD consumers are more price-conscious and so would wait for BOGO sales to spend their dollar? (it was almost a given that every other week there'd be a bogo sale of some kind... I know I waited for a few before making a few purchases myself on BD).


good point. Some folks (me) will wait for a BD copy, but it makes perfect sense to take the opportunity to get some great movies in 1080p with red-disc packaging.

 

[Paul_Scott]

I believe you about the difference in spikes. Everytime I saw those posted, it was done by the poster to cheerlead HD DVD, but what I was seeing was just the opposite. a sharp spike does not connote sustained impact, which is what the format should have had with the influx of so many inexpensive players.
I was defintely seeing those as bad omens.

There have been a lot of supsect rationalizing and misinterpreting of data on both sides.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

my interpretation of that data comports with yours, for the same reasons.

 

[Carlo_M]

Agreed. However think about this: [and I admit that I'm a 33 year old with a PS3 with 4 games and 70+ movies]

Games for PS3 are now $59.99 for the most part. The platform until recently cost $499, now $399. Kids don't have that much disposable income, and parents may love their kids, but not to the tune of a thousand dollars for a gaming machine and 6 games and an extra controller and cables.

The demographic of young adults in their 20s-30s who own PS3s [who are internet savvy and know how to find cheap online deals for movies--discounts which don't exist for game software because the profit margins are so low], I'm willing to wager are just as willing (if not more willing) to spend ~$20 on a BD movie than $60 for a game.

I'm just saying, don't underestimate the number of PS3 owners who are also buying movies, even if it's not at HTF member levels of buying.

 

[Sam Posten]

That data must be highly cromulent!

 

[DaViD Boulet]

A guy at work here would always say "comport" instead of "agree". I used to make fun of him relentlessly... now it's stuck in my brain and I find myself looking for opportunities to say it myself!

 

[Sam Posten]

=) Heheh I look for opps to use cromulent too!