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Can any format ever replace CD?

Discussion in 'Music' started by Rachael B, Apr 27, 2004.

  1. Rachael B

    Rachael B Producer

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    I'm saying no, not under the present conditions. People aren't going to accept any new format that interferes too much with their home recording/portables too much. Now that every new format is an attempt to stem home recording in whole or part, how can the market (peoples) do anything but hold their ground? Stalemate!
     
  2. Cam McFarland

    Cam McFarland Supporting Actor

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    Thats what I said back in the early 70's about
    cassettes...[​IMG]
     
  3. Charles Gurganus

    Charles Gurganus Supporting Actor

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    The only way would be for the industry to do what it did to the LP. Just stop making the CD's and FORCE a new format. The CD was born just by doing that to the LP. It is funny though that the LP will not die.
     
  4. PhilBoy

    PhilBoy Second Unit

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    CD is a perfect medium.

    Clear sound. Huge hardware base. Light. Durable. CD-R's approaching $ .25.

    Most P2P's have yet to hear .wav over mp3.

    It's still got a long way to go. Most portable players come with headphones that don't even begin to approach the fidelity of CD.

    Unless a car could be manufactured without cabin noise, CD is perfect for travellin' tunes.

    It is hard to appreciate advanced resolution audio DVD-A, SA-CD at parties, no?
     
  5. Phil A

    Phil A Producer

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    I think it will be a tough sell to replace CDs with anything for mainstream music. I can't foresee anything in the short to mid-term making them go away. As was noted the record cos. could stop making them (or even raise prices), but given the hardware nos. out there, that would only be a disaster.
     
  6. Chuck Mullen

    Chuck Mullen Stunt Coordinator

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    A few thoughts:
    1-Any player of the new format would have be backwards compatible.

    2-The discs would have to be the same size as CD's. Think about it, there would still be demand for universal players what with dvd, dvd-a, sacd, hd-dvd, etc.

    3-There would definitely be expensive copyright protection involved or the record companies wouldn't touch it.

    4-How much better could it really sound.

    The cost/benefit factors seem to suggest it would never work.
     
  7. Angelo.M

    Angelo.M Producer

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    Compressed audio delivered without physical media is going to represent an increasing challenge to the audio CD format. I don't think the audio CD will vanish, not by a long stretch, but Generation Z (whatever they're called, and sorry for the generalization) seems interested in single tracks as files of 1's and 0's, and not necessarily in holding a physical item, such as an audio CD, in their hands.

    Like it or not, low-rez is here to stay.

    Me, I'm keeping the only two formats I need, my CDs and my vinyl... [​IMG]
     
  8. Michael St. Clair

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    For pop/rock, CD will be replaced by iTunes/AAC, Napster/WMA, etc.

    But sales will never return to previous levels. Buyers will spend the $4 for the 4 tracks they like instead of $16 for the same 4 tracks (plus 8 tracks of filler).
     
  9. Angelo.M

    Angelo.M Producer

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    Michael:

    Absolutely. The high-rez bickering continues, but low-rez will continue to lead the way forward, for better or for worse.

    I think the future holds more and more purchases of individual tracks and music DVD-Video titles (concerts, videos, etc), and further deterioration of traditional CD sales. As for hi-rez, of the current formats, I think DVD-Audio has a far better chance of long-term survival, based simply on the issue of hardware, as you have argued elsewhere.

    To the typical consumer (no offense intended), .mp3/.aac/.wma are "good enough."
     
  10. Anthony Hom

    Anthony Hom Supporting Actor

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    Part of the problem is the 5 1/4" standard being forced upon us for everything:Audio CD, CD-ROM, DVD, Video Games.
    To the mainstream consumer, there is little they can do to discern between all these formats.

    So now the industry wants you to buy and pay more for a disc that is the same size as a regular audio CD but is supposed to NEW and IMPROVED, but you have to buy all new players to replace your car player, home stereo, boom box, hand held player, etc. But almost all these systems will not show the better performance anyway because those devices will not make the hi-rez CD sound good? To most, that sounds like snake oil, so why should they bite? Just for the benefit of a few audiophiles? I doubt it.

    I agree, if you want SACD to be the main format, pull ALL redbook CDs from the shelves just like that and sell nothing but SACD. It worked for LPs.
     
  11. Marc Colella

    Marc Colella Cinematographer

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    Not sure CD will be going away any time soon, but I think MP3 will co-exist nicely with it.

    MP3 will get more popular as more people get online.

    As for hi-rez, I still feel that DVD-A (and it's current form and/or with HD-DVD) will win the niche market.
    The popularity of DVD and surround-sound will make the meshing of audio/video with DVD-A and HD-DVD a natural progression.

    Sorry, but SACD is just another format that doesn't fit into the current popularity of the home theatre/entertainment market.

    SACD will more than likely just die off.
     
  12. Thomas Newton

    Thomas Newton Screenwriter

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    Requirements for any new prerecorded music format are:

    1. High degree of compatibility with CD. Ideally including the ability to play new discs on existing CD/DVD-V equipment.

    2. Easy navigation of audio that does not require access to a full-size TV set.

    3. Reasonable pricing.

    4. Improvements that make it worthwhile for people who are happy with CD/DVD-V to upgrade.

    5. No DRM or copy protection. Any new format should go the other way, and make copying (esp. to computers / jukeboxes) more convenient.
     
  13. Rachael B

    Rachael B Producer

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    Marc, I've never thought the hi-rez formats would replace CD. At the beginning they had a slim chance. However, DVD-A was rushed to market with alot of oversights. It took me 3 DVD-A players to find one I'd tolerate! SACD had the early advantage and time line advantage, except Sony negated that by opting for single-layer discs. They totally lost it when they didn't have a digital output for surround when it was added to the format. I believe both hi-rez formats are D.O.A., in terms of replacing CD. I wish one of the 2 hi-rez formats would emerge but in my heart of hearts I never believed it likely.

    How many folks who have DVD-A or SACD or both would buy into yet another hi-rez format after buying into these. How many folks who didn't buy them but watched from the sidelines would again hesitate because of what they've seen? It's all been so, I'll take my basketball home if I don't get all the calls, know what I mean vern?

    Downloads can't replace CD either, so far. So far, that's patentedly inferior, so it can't truly replace purr-fect sound fur-ever. [​IMG]

    What a logjam...
     
  14. Rachael B

    Rachael B Producer

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    Thomas, which of the big 5 would aggree to #5 ? Ain't that the big kahuna issue?
     
  15. Thomas Newton

    Thomas Newton Screenwriter

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    I wouldn't be surprised if the industry gave LPs a "push", but there was genuine demand for CDs.

    Given the choice of stocking two items that have the same (profit margin, turnover rate, space requirement), stores will often go for the higher-priced items (= more profit).

    I think this explains a lot of why LP and VHS shelf space declined so very quickly (much more quickly than installed base) once the replacement technologies achieved "critical mass".
     
  16. Thomas Newton

    Thomas Newton Screenwriter

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    I don't know what they're thinking. Maybe something like this?

    "We want to replicate our success in selling prerecorded DAT/DCC/MiniDisc/DataPlay discs. Everyone knows that there is no money in selling music on formats like CD, Compact Cassette, and LP." [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
  17. Richard Gilmore

    Richard Gilmore Stunt Coordinator

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    The masses don't want a higher rez option. Look at how popular MP3 is. People are even buying lossy compression now, settling for less than .wav quality. Any replacement of CD will be another niche product.
     
  18. Chu Gai

    Chu Gai Lead Actor

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    Not in the short term I don't. While very unaudiophilish, I don't see it as such a terrible thing to have compressed music. With the intense interest by companies, research facilities, and individuals into codecs coupled with so many different kinds of tiny storage devices (memory sticks, hard drives that are an inch or so in diameter, etc.) with ever decreasing prices, the ability to reliably differentiate becomes increasingly more difficult. This is where I think the majority of 2 channel is going.
    I don't know what is going to overtake CD but suspect it'll be a multichannel format. With the ever increasing amounts of 5.1 speakers being sold coupled with active research into how to mic a performance to do a better job at capturing the spatiality of a performance (no, I don't think those who are in the recording business, regardless of their age or reputation have a clue how to do it right), society will be poised for a technology that's inexpensive and largely already in place.
    Then we can have TAS talk about how modified Toshiba memory sticks improve soundstage.

    The individual track thing that Michael & Angelo speak of is symptomatic of I think of recording businesses trying to drive the music. Kind of a whose in control thing. Maybe it's my age, but I can look back at tons of artists from years gone by and find that the entire album was worth buying. I might have my favorite cuts but it was never to the point that only one song was good and the rest were worth shredding.
     
  19. John Milton

    John Milton Second Unit

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    I suspect CD will be around a long long time, at least 15-20 years.
     
  20. Lee Scoggins

    Lee Scoggins Producer

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    I think if BluRay or HD-DVD get pushed in the right way, people would gravitate to them. Here's my logic:

    1. People in masses will not change for higher resolution alone.

    2. People in masses will not change for surround sound alone.

    3. People in masses will want hi-def movies since they can see the difference.

    4. High definition video is an idea whose time has come and will enjoy immense popularity and eventually replace standard DVD.

    5. IF marketed correctly (a big IF no doubt) and hirez music is included on hidef DVDs, then consumers will be able to benefit.

    6. Probability of success goes up if the new medium is backward compatible with CDs, like having a CD layer for instance which a wider wavelength laser can read.

    [​IMG]
     

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