Blue Ray Association: High Prices Set in Stone (1 Viewer)

[ManW_TheUncool]

There will always be folks who wanna spin things one way or the other just to sell something to anyone who'd care to read it. If they didn't do that, they'd be out of their jobs. Everything gets sensationalized w/ lots of premature jumping to conclusions. If all they did was write that BD is status quo so far and moving along more or less as expected by those who are cautiously optimistic about it, who is gonna pay much attention to that (and litter forums all over the web like this one w/ such links to be followed by lots of essentially pointless chatter -- and I mean no disrespect to anyone here)?

:rolleyes

_Man_

 

[TravisR]

"The sky is falling!"

 

[ManW_TheUncool]

Hmmm... Lionsgate is definitely not cheap here in the USA -- they actually seem to often be on the higher end for pricing recent releases. Warner's the one w/ the lowest pricing for us for the most part. And if you buy from Warner's own WHV site, you can actually get nearly all new releases for

 

[RickER]

Man, i am right there with you. Been ordering from Warner like a fool! The Matrix movies will be $65 (or so) too, thanks to the codes.

Mark, its OK if you dont want to buy into Blu-ray. Wow, cant wait for Irom Man next week! Can i fill up the other half of your glass buddy?

 

[ManW_TheUncool]

BTW, if anyone's interested, Amazon just dropped their price for The Nightmare Before Christmas BD (from the going rate of ~$28) to ~$23. I threw in some bargain bin DVD for the kids to bump the order up pass $25 for free shipping + the BMLSAVES $5 coupon. So my net will essentially be right around $20 for it, which is not bad at all for this title.

Also, I think I might finally make use of them digital copy thingies (mainly for the kids) as I plan to get an iPod Nano and probably a PSP for the family -- well, there's always the laptop for roadtrips too.

Anyway, just providing an actual datapoint for a very recent BD release. But heck, everyone's been jumping on just released titles like the Godfather Trilogy BD set for a prorated ~$20 per film too (before any other kind of additional deals) -- and that price apparently even showed up at Borders(!) of all places.

_Man_

 

[chuckg]

I think we just might see a big change in consumer attitude toward hi-def on February 20th, 2009. That'll be the day that CC and BB parking lots have cops directing traffic, with cash registers and TV sets along the curb.

 

[Jesse Blacklow]

Sony looks to 50% global market share for its Blu-ray products in 2008

The fact that the author can't tell (or deliberately avoids) the difference between "Sony's hoping for 50% share of Blu-ray products only" and "Sony's hoping for Blu-ray to be 50% of all disc hardware and software" sheds a lot of doubt on this guy's opinion. I'd love to see what he was saying about Toshiba's boasting of market share and price drops last year.

 

[Mark Talmadge]

Jesse, I'm just stating reported articles from another website. Engadget isn't your tip of the mill website. They actually report on most everything having to do with the technology market. I'm a frequent visitor of their parent website. I seriously doubt these figures are made up otherwise they wouldn't have reported it.

Before you start throwing around accusations, you don't know what my agenda is so stop attacking me here. If you don't like the article I linked to that's fine, don't attack me for posting it.

While HD is a fine new format I have stated from the very beginning the market wasn't ready for a new home video format considering the fact that the DVD format is still a fledgling format.

Considering the fact that the VHS format had been on the market for 20 years before the DVD format was introduced to the market, Sony couldn't wait that long. The DVD format has only been on the market since 1996 and it was a bit premature of the industry to rush the HD format to the market. Not only did the fight between Sony and Toshiba make consumers wary of the new format but wary of these companies as well.

Sure, blu ray is a worthy successor to the DVD format but it was just too early for Sony to release a format that would signal a war between HD-DVD and blu ray but also that Sony wouldn't be able to prepare itself to what would amount to a format war between DVD and blu ray, two formats that were originally created by Sony in the first place.

Judging by the sales of DVD's compared to blu ray, DVD is winning the war. We're talking about number of disks sold. It's too late for Sony to back out now and hold off on blu ray production and wait for the market to accept the format ... now, they're stepping up the fight and trying to convince consumers that blu ray is the format of the future.

The only thing I'm saying is that consumers were fooled by this little trick before. I seem to recall the same thing being said about the CD and DVD formats, that prices would drop and that the formats would be the format of the future. Sure, blu ray is selling now but that's only because those consumers driving the market are the tech geeks who are continuing to buy into the new format. They gave the format the push it needed and while I'll be the first to admit that it's also reaching some new consumers on the way, it's not pushing enough consumers into the new format.

What you're forgetting is that the success of this format is totally dependent on how many of your average everyday-from-the-street-consumer are going to buy into the new format. Most of your consumers who have a limited budget on home entertainment when it comes to movies or television shows on home media are on a budget and they're going to want to get the most for your entertainment dollar.

I sincerely doubt that this same consumer is going to walk into a store and say "GOLLY, I WONDER WHAT THE MOST IS I CAN PAY FOR THIS MOVIE." I guarantee that the same consumer is going to look for the most movies, DVD or otherwise that he or she can buy with their dollar. The blu ray format does not offer the best or most for your entertainment dollar.

I buy some movies from time to time but mostly television shows on DVD and I can assure that the same television show/same season whereas it costs $30-40 on DVD costs $60-80 on blu ray. Recent example? Heroes Season 1, which sells for around $50 on DVD sells for $100 on blu ray ... such a huge price gap. When it comes to a choice like that, most consumers are going to go for the DVD format. With an upconvertable DVD player, it brings the picture quality to 1080 standards.

Now, with the recent losses on Wall Street as of late and the bailout of AIG and the oil markets, this is going to cause even greater sales in home entertainment and those self-same consumers who had been buying blu ray disks are going to cut back on their spending.

 

[Lew Crippen]

Mark--just thought I'd check your stats:

On Amazon Heroes Season 1 on DVD is $35. But on BluRay its $69--not exactly the price you quoted. Also I'd point out that one can purchase Season 2 for $40. Personally I won't get either, but it is nice to know that if I did, I'd not need to fork out a C note.

 

[Scott-S]

I have a problem with this statement. Where are you getting your data to support this? Are you saying that Blu-Ray sales should already be higher than dvd?

According to this chart the Blu-ray market share is growing:



I think to have 10% market share in 6 months is outstanding. So I would not say that DVD is "winning".

 

[Mark Talmadge]

Well, I picked up Heroes Season 2 on DVD for $25 ... so, for sure, blu ray prices are around 40% higher than DVD prices. Sure, the blu ray format is selling but it's mostly your middle to upper class families who are buying into it and who have a couple thousand to toss down on a 40" HD television set with blu ray tossed in for good measure.

You're missing my point and taking my statement out of context. I never said that I wanted blu ray to fail ... Sony's logic into thinking the market could sustain it now was flawed.

Point 1: DVD is still a fairly new format. To introduce a competing format for DVD is just inviting disaster because a lot of consumers have a lot of money invested into their DVD libraries. They're not interested in knowing or care about if blu ray players are compatible with DVD, they're not, not 100% anyway. Why? Because these same consumers do not want to spend their hard earned entertainment dollars going into a new format when DVD satisfies most consumers appetite for home entertainment.

The DVD format has pretty good quality. Now, if you were to buy a television set that is more than 25 or 30", sure there's going to be video degradation, but for the most part, consumers are satisfied with the DVD format. I don't know about you but I don't think I want to see Adam Sandler belting out songs in High Def in the Wedding Singer.

Despite what the industry wants you to believe and what Sony wants you to believe, consumers aren't a sophisticated portion of our society. They want something they can watch, a format with decent audio and video and the DVD format more than satisfies this requirement. If they have an HTIB, it's even better. When you have a wage earner who makes six or seven dollars an hour, they don't have a lot of money to spend on home entertainment and they are more apt to buy DVD, which gives them more entertainment value for their dollar than blu ray does.

Point 2: I seem to remember that when the format war was going on between the blu ray format and HD-DVD that I remember someone from Sony saying that if their fortmat emerges as victor, that prices would drop, because there would be no competition and that there would be price relief for the blu ray technology. I'm sorry, did I miss something? Prices for the new format haven't gotten better, they've remained where they are and they aren't bound to drop anytime soon. Sony will keep prices where they are for the foreseeable future.

The only time you'll see a price drop on blu ray players is when a particular model is going to be discontinued and no longer made by the manufacturer. This allows them to push out their older stock ... I don't know about you, but I don't buy discontinued technology merchandise ...

 

[ManW_TheUncool]

Mark,

You do make some good points about the situation, but I think you also make some rather flawed ones too, especially when it comes to certain assumptions made about what "success" means for Blu-ray or how well DVD itself is doing as a format and market.

I'd agree that the studios and CE companies may well have come out w/ HDM prematurely in light of the existing DVD market and average consumer desires (besides the apparently unforseen economic downturn at the time). But what is done is done, and it's not likely that they will give up on Blu-ray unless they can find some other revenue source w/ a high margin -- and DVD is not it at this point. As near as I can tell, it looks like what will happen is the studios and CE companies will try to find that elusive balance to make the most of *both* Blu-ray and DVD for the forseeable future (and then eventually probably Blu-ray and some form of VOD/download to replace the low end of the market, eg. DVD).

Sure, everyone wants to spend less and get more value, but that's really only half the equation though. The studios and CE companies (and retailers too) are in this to make $$$, and if DVD cannot make enough $$$ for them, then there's probably not a whole lot the average consumer can do about that unless he/she would suddenly become willing to spend more on DVD -- and the studios (and even hardware makers to some extent, eg. Toshiba's recent attempt w/ XDE) are certainly testing the waters to see if they can't regain some margins w/ DVD, eg. adding new features like digital copy.

In the end, if they do find that a 2-tier market (or maybe even 3-tier as we seem to have now) works best for them, then that's how it'll go.

However, as has been repeatedly pointed out before, we really do not know yet at this point where the market will end up. It is really still much too early to tell -- and the studios and CE companies can certainly still make substantial changes in how they deal w/ the market (of course, w/ the intention to make more $$$ however that may occur).

As for some of those links you posted, again, most of them seem to be full of flaws, including lots of misrepresentation of the data and/or quoted statements. I don't really know if those writers have some sort of bias against Blu-ray or not, but it's pretty clear they are editorializing either carelessly or w/ some agenda (that may be as simple as just wanting to get paid for a piece that may draw more attention than actually giving an honest, well thought-out opinion).

_Man_

 

[RickER]

I was in Best Buy yesterday, they actually have a good sale on some Warner (mostly) Blu-rays. Looks like people had been buying them too. I also noticed many DVDs that were FULL RETAIL! My wife wanted Desperate Housewives season 4...its $69. I saw Galactica 1980, that i got when it came out for $14, or so. They had it for $25. Its a show that had less than 10 episodes, and $14 was a stretch. Not everything was marked full price, but i was shocked to see that anything would be! I am used to full retail at the mall, or even Borders...but shocked to see it at BB.

 

[Jesse Blacklow]

Again, you're basing this on what exactly?

The Samsung BD1500, introduced 5 months ago isn't being discontinued, but it's on sale. Nor is the Sony BP350, which had a $50 price drop. Nor are the Funai players introduced around the same time that retail for $229. Nor is the Magnavox introduced last week for $270. Nor is the Panasonic BDP35 that was introduced this week for $299.

Now do you see where I have the problem with your disconnect between what is being said and what is happening?

 

[ManW_TheUncool]

One other thing.

Let's face it. Most of us *actual* consumers care about this (and related) topic mainly to have a good idea how all this will impact our individual enjoyment of the HT experience. We're not in this to get paid for being pundits or the like (unlike certain writers and others being referenced). So it really doesn't make much sense to keep having the "glass half empty" attitude about all this, IMHO.

Also, remember, nobody's forcing you to go Blu-ray exclusive (nor to always buy every single BD of interest whether at a high premium or deeply discounted) as soon as you adopt the format into your HT experience. You can still mix in some cheap DVDs (while they're still around) when you feel certain titles you'd like to own doesn't justify the higher price for the given quality improvement. Heck, even though I already said elsewhere that I don't plan to buy much in the way of DVDs, I still broke down and splurged on the latest 3-for-$10 DVD sale at Amazon and spent ~$90 there -- the sale was just too good to pass up. I also picked up a few old Chinese kungfu/action flicks (among others) at bargain bin prices elsewhere because I didn't think I'd likely ever buy them on Blu-ray, if they even get released eventually -- honestly, I seriously doubt those particular flicks would benefit much from Blu-ray considering where the source elements would come from, but *IF* any of the ones I really love do come out in good quality BD, then I'll just have to bite the bullet and buy them at that point.

Anyhoo, unless you actually have some sort of vested interest in all the gloom-and-doom talks beyond simply being a potential BD customer, it seems to me that dwelling sooooo very much on the negativity of this stuff just isn't a good thing. IF you really don't want to buy into Blu-ray, then so be it. But I'd encourage you to just go and enjoy your DVDs instead and not worry so much about how Blu-ray will do in that case...

_Man_