Blu-ray Dominates Black-Friday (1 Viewer)

[Jason Seaver]

Things sell best in their first week/month of release That's when they get placed in ads, face forward in the "new release" section of stores, have a lot of people talking about them, etc. They get impulse buys during that period which don't happen as much later.

 

[bigluigi]

Another reason Sony may have released CE3K at this time is to possibly stimulate hardware sales. Boy, the creative PR strokes available to you when you own a studio and manufacture the single best selling BR player, the PS3.

I got to admit, I bought CE3K and almost pulled the plug on the Walmart Sony 300 player with 10"free titles." However, none of the titles was a "must have" so I passed.

But, I got to hand it to the BR PR group for doing the best with what they had to work with. Clearly, BR could not go anywhere near the prices Toshiba was selling their players for, so they did the next best thing by offering discounts on their software...so with the BR strategy you have software selling hardware, the best example is the Walmart $499 PS3 sale with 15 "free titles."

No one will deny that Toshiba's HD-DVD sales during this quarter are simply phenomenal. With almost a corner on the HD-DVD market and their players selling as fast as they can manufacture them, they really are in an enviable position to flood the market and compete with STANDARD DVD players next year.

HD-DVD software is another story, however. I'm not surprised that Blu-ray dominated software sales on black-friday. Speaking for myself, I haven't bought any HD-DVD titles lately because I'm waiting for the HD-DVD exclusive studios to offer BOGO sales similar to the Blu-ray sales. I mean---why the hell not! They need to step up their efforts to match Toshiba's reduction in over all prices. I'm tired of reading numerous posts that describe in detail how cheaper it is to manufacture HD-DVD hardware and software and yet see HD-DVD software titles priced the same or even higher than BR titles.

 

[Norman Matthews]

Exactly. I know I'm guilty of purchasing something on release week that, if I hadn't happened to go to the store that week and seen fifty copies of it occupying prime real estate on the new-release shelf, I probably would not have purchased it.

I'm not proud of this fact, but it's definitely the case. And I'm sure I'm not the only one.

 

[ReggieW]

Louis, day/date HD-DVD software is selling very well, BD simply has many more bigger releases this quarter. I think Nielsen mentioned that of the 12 major releases last week, 10 of them were Blu. Next week will be a slaughter as well, with BD getting Pirates and Superbad, and HD-DVD only getting BSG S1 -an expensive catalog boxset. The Dec 11th week Bourne comes out, you'll probably see the numbers swing closer together again. For example, suppose next quarter that BEE Movie and American Gangster were to ship the same day with no major day/date release on BD that week? I am certain that HD-DVD would easily take the week IF this happened. Also consider that both sides have been giving away a dozen or more free movies with each hardware purchase (with Blu seemingly giving away more with the BOGO's), then it becomes difficult to paint any kind of clear picture with these numbers. I remember when the PS3 came out last November, it wasn't until around/after X-mas that BD pulled ahead of HD-DVD in sales. After people are done watching their free titles, then we'll probably see sales increase slowly on both sides.

 

[Adam Gregorich]

Assuming there will be no BD BOGO sale. Transformers would have easily taken it if not for the BOGO sale. Disney catalog numbers shot up over 1000%. Some older catalog titles actually sold more titles during the BOGO week than they had since being released!

 

[Cees Alons]

That's something I read somewhere else too: that the free items in a "buy one get one" sale are counted in the Nielsen numbers as sold items. I'm still very much surprised about that.

It's very bad business practice to treat those as normal turnover, and (as I wrote elsewhere too): it's basically what brought Enron executives in jail.

If for every item sold you either throw another one in the dustbin, or send another to a developing country, or pack one other together with the sold item and hand it over to the buyer, then you cannot count it with the same weight as regularly sold items.

You earn less, and it doesn't reflect the selling strength of the item the same way.
If this is true, it diminishes the value of the Nielsen numbers considerably! In fact, I hardly believe it.


Cees

 

[Averry]

This is definately true as it's the Blu camps aim.

I guess the only ones they need to prove anything to are consumers. Other studios don't give a crap how many titles the other camp is selling, they're worried about making money for themselves.

Blu ray can hold up these numbers as selling points.

 

[Paul_Scott]

i forgot how they handle it with online sales, but when BD and Circuit City had its B1G1 sale (to temper the sales numbers of Transformers) when I got the receipt I noticed that each title was discounted 50% rather than one title showing up as a 'free' promotion. As soon as I saw that I thought "How blatantly obvious. This 'sale' isn't about generating net revenue, its about generating net sales figures to perceptually offset a popular release"

This is my big worry about the viability of Blu-ray in the long run. It looks to me like a house of cards held together by a manufactured, illusory perception of success. This is what Bill Hunt doesn't talk about in his $.02 pieces.

But why should we care if the studios have to cut their profits to move product. It's a win win isn't it?
And the answer to that is- these constant B1G1 sales are one reason Fox cancels its announced catalog titles every other week. The studio has no incentive to go to the trouble and expense of putting out product that is only going to move at a 50% off price point.

 

[Shane Martin]

I have similar concerns about HD DVD. I haven't seen a sound business strategy from them yet. I suspect at CES, we'll either see a killing blow by BR or more hope for HD with them gaining more support either by the CE companies or the studios. Things can't continue like they are especially at CES where you will see press releases galore.

 

[RickER]

I only wish i could buy FOX Blu-rays for 50% off. They are the most expensive of all. I have never seen them on sale. The best i can do is Amazon, and it better be release week, or it will cost almost $30. So if you know a place that sells FOX titles for 50% off...tell us all!

 

[Jeff Adkins]

Fry's has a ton of FOX titles at more than 50%. Many of their $39.98 titles are priced at $13.99.

Link

 

[ReggieW]

Shane, I've also been very critical of HD-DVD's business strategy as well, but there will likely be no "killing blow" at CES from either camp. I think format enthusiasts place far too much stock in CES and its efficacy. If you remember, we heard the same talk last year when BD was center stage and Universal was MIA with title announcements. Fox & the BDA began to gloat over their strategy and passed out propaganda with fancy graphs declaring themselves the winners. As we now know, reality was completely different. Fox cancelled their releases and dropped off the radar for several months, and ultimately it was Universal (despite dropping the ball at CES) who actually ended up releasing the most HD content of any studio! Yes, there will be more bragging and gloating again this year, but things will continue on their merry way after the event ends - much like last year.

I'll be surprised if there are any earth-shattering announcements aside from new hardware (probably many more combo players this year) and software.

 

[Felix Martinez]

Like $98 players? Both camps are swinging it out. So does this mean when Bourne is released next week, we might see another BOGO Blu-ray title sale?? I'm all for it!

 

[bigluigi]

Shane,
I wish you would elaborate on your statement that you haven't seen a sound business decision from the HD-DVD camp yet.
Don't forget, it was just in January of this year that the BDA held a press conference and declared that BDA was victorious as the hi def format of choice. And, just last month, the CEO of Sony admitted a stalemate of sorts exists between the two formats. It would appear that the HD-DVD camp has gained considerable ground in this format war and that it is the BDA that has dropped the ball, so to speak.
Anyway...looking forward to your comments.

 

[ReggieW]

That $98 sale appears to have been a one-time weekend sale at Wal-mart just to clear out the remaining stock of A2's. Many of us expected an encore on Black Friday at this price but it never materialized. It's not like it's a new price point or there are other HD-DVD players available in that price range. The A3 is $299 and new entry level Venturer is $199.

BOGO's are very good for buyers as the sales numbers will attest, but I have to wonder if the the BDA will run this everytime HD-DVD has a major release? Will they run BOGO's for Bee Movie, American Gangster & Beowulf as Adam loosely hinted might happen? I find it hilarious that Sony/Disney will be willing to give away films everytime HD-DVD has a major release just to "win" the week. In the end, I really don't know exactly what they're trying to prove since industry players will know these sells are simply to prevent HD-DVD from winning in the Nielsens. IF this is an attempt to sway Warner, I don't know if this will help their case. I'm sure execs at WHV know full well what's going on here. I think it really shows how pathetically small the HD optical market presently is when one of the camps can run a sale like this and a long dormant title can suddenly jump ahead of a new major release on the Nielsen's chart due to a BOGO sale.

 

[Douglas Monce]

I read on High Def Digest employees of Best Buy, Circuit City and Walmart are all reporting large pallets (described as a "ton") of A3s in their back rooms with signs saying "do not sell".

Apparently there is going to be some kind of big sale on 12/7 with the A3 and 5 free movies instantly, 2 in the box, and 5 mail ins. No word on the A3 being reduced in price.

At least thats the rumor.

Doug

 

[Larry Sutliff]

I agree completely.

 

[Stephen_J_H]

I seriously have to wonder how many of those A2s sold on Black Friday will be going under the tree with gift cards so that the recipients can buy the movies they want on Boxing Day?

 

[Douglas Monce]

Sorry when is Boxing Day again?

 

[Marc Colella]

December 26.