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Blu Ray delivers another blow to hd.

Discussion in 'Blu-ray and UHD' started by Greg T, Jan 25, 2006.

  1. Cees Alons

    Cees Alons Moderator
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    But what has all this to do with Pixar being bought by Disney?


    Cees
     
  2. EricRWem

    EricRWem Screenwriter

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    Nothing whatsoever.
     
  3. Paul_Scott

    Paul_Scott Lead Actor

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    Ken_F has enunciated my thoughts pretty well.
    It sure looked like Bd had the upper hand, when Warner and Paramount announced cross platform support, but everything coming out of CES seems to indicate that Bd is still a ways away from being ready for prime time.
    and while HD DVD has its own problems in this regard, i do expect they will make it to market first, and by the time Bd shows up, HD DVD should have a fairly more robust catalog-even if they will be primarily Warner titles- and everything at cheaper price points.

    also, though its more of the same old, same old argument, i just don't think the PS3 is going to be a great factor in driving Bd movie sales.
    the people most rabid for Bd are not the kind of enthusiasts that are going to be satisfied watching content in their home theaters from a game console.


    and yeah, if HD DVD has steam a year or two from now, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Disney start releasing titles on that platform.
     
  4. Ken_F

    Ken_F Stunt Coordinator

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    BD definitely has the upper hand, simply cause they have majority studio support, which Sony got in large part because it promised mass shipments of BD players (PS3).

    But once again, with exception to FOX and Sony, none of the studios have much of an investment or commitment to Blu-ray -- aside from the minimum of 15 titles-- and will release disks in whatever format has the players to support quantity disk sales. Thus, it will be the sales of $300-$500 HD-DVD players, and availability and sales of the PS3 and other BD players that will determine how things play out, not what format has the most studio support before either has shipped a single drive. Studio support at this point is only important to the extent that it promotes early sales of one format and/or discourages early sales of the other -- we'll have to see how that plays out.
     
  5. Juan C

    Juan C Second Unit

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    I don't think that's correct. Buena Vista and Lionsgate have 10 titles each.
     
  6. Ken_F

    Ken_F Stunt Coordinator

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    Juan,

    Studios can certainly release more, and I expect many (if not all) will. But 15 titles is the commitment required to be a launch partner with the lowest payments. We'll see more title announcements between now and BD's launch in 4-6 months.
     
  7. Juan C

    Juan C Second Unit

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    Thanks for the clarification, Ken.
     
  8. RaymondSteiner

    RaymondSteiner Stunt Coordinator

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    BluRay has been able to produce prototipes in japan, quite a long time ago, and there has been some prototipes available to the press (Original German: http://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/68839, translation: http://translate.google.com/translat...language_tools)

    From that article we can say that the only thing holding back BOTH formats is the protection. So there will be BluRay players as early of May.

    I hope BluRay wins, but for the moment it doesn't matter because my budget is not very "healthy" (Thanks to an infocus projector)
     
  9. Joseph DeMartino

    Joseph DeMartino Lead Actor

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    PS3 might be a factor - if you assume that all gamers are HT and movie enthusiasts and will use the game machine as a DVD player. And that they're all going to buy PS3s, with nobody owning only an X-box 360 or sticking with earlier models. Otherwise this prediction, like most others, goes in the "Well, it depends" pile.

    I have lots of appliances that do more than one job - I don't use them all for all of those jobs. It is quite possible that a family will buy a PS3 for their kid to play games in his room and an HD-DVD player for the living room. Some PS3 owners may simply continue renting SD discs from Netflix because they don't own an HDTV or they aren't that into movies. It is foolish to project from our own preferences to the general market and assume that what we would do is what everybody else is going to do. Again, look at the still limited penetration of true HD TV sets, and the even smaller penetration of HD sets getting HD signals. (Lots of people who don't yet have access to any or much HD programming are buying HD-ready sets as their old TVs die, even though they have no immediate access to HD.)

    I frankly don't see PS3 as being the "killer app" for Blu-Ray, but I could be wrong because at this point nobody really knows nuthin'. [​IMG]

    Oh, yeah - what does all this have to do with Pixar? [​IMG]

    (I liked FARK's headline for the Disney/Pixar Story: "Disney buys Pixar after realizing that the only decent Disney movies released in the last ten years were produced there.")

    Regards,

    Joe
     
  10. FrancisP

    FrancisP Screenwriter

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    The original post suggested that this pretty much hands a victory to BR. My point is that there are too many cards left to play to make such a statement.
     
  11. Greg T

    Greg T Stunt Coordinator

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    The facts are that millions of PS3's will be in U.S. homes, effectively making BD, the number one format player base as far as installed players.
    Add on the fact that they have by far, the most hardware/software support, and its very easy , even for a skeptic, that the BDA has its ducks in a row.

    I gaurantee you that these movie studios all have a very good idea on the exact potential of all these installed PS3's.
    There not simply throwing a dart here, and you know as well as I, that they have done there research before backing Blu Ray.

    And Pixar being bought by Disney...is just yet another duck[​IMG]
     
  12. Kyle_D

    Kyle_D Second Unit

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    Only if you take it for granted that PS3 will be a success.

    Look, I get what you're saying and I would agree that I'd say the odds are ~80-90% that Blu-ray will emerge the victor. However, it's still too early for Blu-Ray to get cocky. It seems that the Blu-Ray manufactures and studios seem to be relying too heavily on PS3 to establsh an installed base. Chances are the PS3 won't be readily available until next spring at the earliest and at that point, Xbox360 will likely be 100-200 dollars cheaper. Sony is going to have to compete in that market a lot harder this time than they did with the PS2. No matter how Sony wants to push it, PS3 is still primarily a gaming machine that will have to appeal to gamers first, and HT/Film aficionados second in order to be successful.

    The Blu-Ray manufacturers really needs to get out there and announce a ~500 dollar standalone player and stop using the PS3 as a crutch to cater to the lower-end market. If an uneducated consumer sees an HD-DVD player for $500 next to a $1000 Blu-Ray player in a store, they're naturally going to be more attracted to the HD-DVD model because of price and the familiarity of the DVD brand. When I mention Blu-ray to friends and random people, they have no idea what it is, whereas I say HD-DVD, they comprehend it instantly. As any marketing expert will tell you, brand recognition/loyalty is a powerful force and DVD is far bigger as a "brand" than any single manufacturer.

    Right now, Blu-Ray's biggest advantage is in studio support, but if others here are right about studios only needing to commit to 15 titles to be considered a "supporter", that can sway easily. With The Matrix, The Lord of the Rings and King Kong, HD-DVD has the demo material to sell players. Blu-Ray still has a ways to go before it can lock this thing up.
     
  13. Dave Scarpa

    Dave Scarpa Producer

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    It Depends. THey said that about Divx too and Disney was forced to Jump that Bandwagon when DVD took off.
     
  14. Greg T

    Greg T Stunt Coordinator

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    The Matrix is on BD, LOTR has not had an official release date for any format, and I don't see Kong competing with the Likes of Alien series,X men series or many other bigger than Kong movies that are BD exclusive.

    Assuming the sales people do not disclose things like eight studios not supporting hd dvd, the required new display with hdmi 1080p input ect, ect.....then yes hd dvd will look like a good deal to average Joe.

    The only problem with this, is that I don't believe there will be many Average Joes that are not already happy with sd dvd and the cheaply priced software that goes with that format.

    I see both formats as niche on there own for years, and with both on the market, I see mass confusion and a niche fan base until the next format war rolls around.

    By supporting both, were encouraging constant format wars, and by supporting the one that has the most support, we as consumers are saying no to format wars.
    I guess you could say the same about people that don't buy into either also.
     
  15. Joseph DeMartino

    Joseph DeMartino Lead Actor

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    Ah, I see you're still missing my point. [​IMG] Or maybe just ignoring it.

    A game machine that happens to off Blu-Ray as a feature and is not a dedicated Blu-Ray DVD player means nothing in terms of predicting the future of Blu-Ray because nobody can predict what percentage of PS3 buyers will also buy Blu-Ray movie discs.

    If Cadillac makes Sirius radio equipment a standard feature on its cars, Sirius could end up with the "biggest installed base" of players. But you couldn't use that fact to "prove" that Sirius was going to beat XM in the satellite radio wars. Because people don't buy cars to listen to the radio. Personally, I listen to CDs and sometimes the local weather and traffic reports on AM in my car. I bought my car to drive not as a sound system on wheels. If I buy a game system to play games how am I doing any good for Blu-Ray. I may be in their "installed base", but I'll never buy a Blu-Ray disc. They might end up gleefully counting me as a customer while I'm watching HD-DVD in my living room and helping to put them out of business.

    And nobody writing today can make the call one way or the other based on the information that's out there so far.

    Regards,

    Joe
     
  16. BrettGallman

    BrettGallman Screenwriter

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    I don't think it's going out on a limb to predict that the PS3 will be a success. It's a lock. Now, whether or not it will have an impact on the format war remains to be seen. I think it's a different situation than the DVD drive in the PS2. In that case, Sony was taking a product (DVD) that had proven itself for 3 years; it was also recognizable. Blu-Ray won't have that later this year; I can't see too many people saying "oh, I guess I'll get a PS3 because it doubles as a Blu-Ray player." The first huge amounts of PS3's are going to be sold to hardcore gamers and parents because it will be a hot holiday item. We just have to hope that all those PS3 adopters are going to be interested enough in Blu-Ray to make an impact against HD-DVD.
     
  17. EricRWem

    EricRWem Screenwriter

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    Doesn't seem like it, really.

    Barring something really crazy and unforseen, I look at the momentum, the support, the companies, and it's so one sided in favor of BR already, for the most part...you never say never, but some really crazy things would have to happen for BR to lose, imho.

    And even using the most conservative of expectations, barring an implosion at SCEA? The PS3 is going to be an appreciable factor in favor of BR that I just don't see HD-DVD having any counter for.

    If Sony can get people to taste test BR discs like they have with UMD discs, at the very least? That's all they need to do. I suspect there efforts will be at least that successful.
     
  18. Bryan X

    Bryan X Producer

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    BD may very well win the 'war', but I have my doubts that the PS3 will make any significant impact.

    What comes to my mind is:

    How many people who buy a PS3 will actually have a display capable of taking advantage of BD? There's approximately 110 million households in the US. Mid 2005, I had read that there were about 10 million households with HDTV. That's less than 10% penetration by HDTV.

    So the question is, will a significant number of PS3 buyers even be hooking their new machines up to a HDTV? If they aren't, do we really expect them to then pay maybe $29 for a BD movie that they can get for $15-$20 on SD?

    And of the people who are going to buy a PS3 to watch BD movies on, are those the people who would have bought a stand alone BD player anyway if the PS3 wasn't available?

    If the PS3 is really going to make an impact, it needs to draw in people (meaning get them to buy the movies) who wouldn't have bought in to BD if the PS3 wasn't available. If not, you're just shifting numbers from the 'stand-alone BD buyers' bucket to the 'PS3 BD buyers' bucket and not affecting the total number of people buying into Blu-ray.

    Just my HO.
     
  19. EricRWem

    EricRWem Screenwriter

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    Bryan, I don't know about you, but I can't begin to tell you how many people I've run into on the 'net and in person who have told me they've been saving up their money to buy their very first HDTVs in lieu of the Xbox 360 and/or especially the PS3. Even if it's just some 27 inch CRT HD monitor, it's still an HDTV. A lot of people are waiting to do it and have already done so with the 360.

    The PS3 is basically that other foot dropping. I think it's going to be huge for HD, in general.

    Concept: Content is king and "if you build it, they will come."

    Videogames are a huge boon for HDTV.
     
  20. Joe Schwartz

    Joe Schwartz Second Unit

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    Eric, I think you meant to write "in light of", not "in lieu of".
     

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