Disney+ Black Widow (2021) (1 Viewer)

[TravisR]

Since Disney waited so long to move Mulan, I think they're going to wait and see if the Coronavirus recedes a bit before making a decision on Black Widow (unlike the dopes at Universal moving Fast And The Furious over two months before its release). If things are getting better, they'll still release it as scheduled. If there's still infections, they'll move it.

 

[Jake Lipson]

(F9 was an April release

Actually, F9 was for Memorial Day, after Black Widow, and got pushed to next April.

Sounds like we're looking at a game where movies in the next 6 weeks get postponed. BW isn't there yet...but I have zero doubt it going to get pushed as well.

We are currently seven weeks away from Black Widow's supposed date, so there's not that much time. But I assume Travis is right and Disney will put off making a decision as long as possible. It was easy for Universal to bump F9 because they already had the new April release date reserved for the debut of F10, so they're keeping the franchise where they always planned for it to be; it's just one movie behind schedule. I'm not sure if Disney knows what they want to do with Black Widow yet, so there's no harm in officially keeping it on its date until they have something to announce, even if we all know the announcement is coming.

I am glad this didn't disrupt last year's slate. A delay for Endgame coming off of the huge cliffhanger on Infinity War would be much worse to wait out than one for Black Widow.

 

[Jason_V]

Actually, F9 was for Memorial Day, after Black Widow, and got pushed to next April.

You are, of course, right, Jake. I had a brain fart.

I'm still figuring a Black Widow change is coming in the next two weeks. Hope against hope they can release on time and take the time to explore options.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

They're going to see how things go over the next few weeks. It is very possible that BW will be delayed. Some sites are reporting that conversations have been had with Scarlett Johansson's agent to that end.

Even if they're not still worried about quarantines/social unrest by May 1, most of the late night shows and morning shows are suspending production. It will be hard for Johansson and the other cast members to publicize the movie if none of the usual major promotional platforms are available.

 

[Sean Bryan]

Will definitely be postponed.

Most likely, yes.

 

[Sam Favate]

It seems impossible now that the film can be released May 1. With restrictions on gatherings of more than 50 people, theaters will not be able to operate until at least mid-May.

Disney will probably have a statement on this soon.

 

[TravisR]

It seems impossible now that the film can be released May 1. With restrictions on gatherings of more than 50 people, theaters will not be able to operate until at least mid-May.

Disney will probably have a statement on this soon.

Obviously, they want to wait until closer to the date to make sure things are good but if I was Disney, I'd move Black Widow to Memorial Day since there's nothing opening and the audience will want to see a new movie.

 

[Jake Lipson]

if I was Disney, I'd move Black Widow to Memorial Day since there's nothing opening

Moving to Memorial Day is what, a three-week delay? That assumes things will clear up between May 1 and Memorial Day weekend. I would love that to be the case but it doesn't really seem like that's going to happen. I suspect the delay will be much more significant, like maybe to the November slot they currently have reserved for The Eternals. Or it could become just "undated" like Mulan and the rest they delayed last week. They're going to wait as long as they can, but if delaying it is necessary, it won't be just for a few weeks.

 

[TravisR]

Moving to Memorial Day is what, a three-week delay? That assumes things will clear up between May 1 and Memorial Day weekend. I would love that to be the case but it doesn't really seem like that's going to happen. I suspect the delay will be much more significant, like maybe to the November slot they currently have reserved for The Eternals. Or it could become just "undated" like Mulan and the rest they delayed last week. They're going to wait as long as they can, but if delaying it is necessary, it won't be just for a few weeks.

I agree but IF things get back to normal (and that is a big 'if') by May, Memorial Day would be an ideal time to release a movie. People won't have been to any movie in over two months by then and whatever movie is the first big summer one to come out will be huge. All that being said, that hinges on things calming down by May and that certainly may not happen.

 

[Sam Favate]

The 50-person restriction is for 8 weeks, so until mid-May. There’s no way this movie can open May 1. Also, look at the news of Universal opening their new films online (VOD). That’s a genie that’s not going back in the bottle.

I think Disney has two options for BW: open in August and hope things are closer to normal, or do VOD in May or June at a much higher price than normal. Look, if I was to take my family of four to the theater, that’s $40-$50 from me. If I do VOD for $20, Disney is losing money.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

The losses may not be as bad as you expect. Digitally they can control the distribution, eliminate most advertising, and reduce the percentage they have to share with their partners.

For a theatrical release, they’d spend at least $100 million in the days and weeks before the opening to promote it, in addition to the millions they’ve slowly been spending in recent months. They’d have to share a percentage with theaters. Put it online, and the online storefronts and trade papers and social media will do for free what the studio would spend $100 million for. Digital storefronts garner a much smaller percentage than theaters. The cost of sending the digital file to half a dozen retailers is less than buying and shipping thousands of hard drives across the country.

So in the end, if the studio turns your $40 theatrical visit into a $20 digital rental, the gross revenue may fall but the differences in costs faced by the studio switching platforms could more than make up for that.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Personally, my preference is for Disney to wait and give this one a traditional theatrical release when the coronavirus is contained. I want to see this in a theater with a huge screen and a big sound system. I don't want my first experience with it to be on my 40-inch TV with stereo sound.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

I think the harsh reality is that none of us are getting our first choice of what we want to do for the foreseeable future.

We may need studios to release in demand product for morale boosts the same way that we needed that during WWII.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I understand that, but if I wait until the end of the year and see Black Widow in a theater, I'm good with that. Unless theaters are permanently closing, there is no circumstance in which I would choose to view this film for the first time on my television. I like my television, but I like the theater better.

 

[TravisR]

I understand that, but if I wait until the end of the year and see Black Widow in a theater, I'm good with that. Unless theaters are permanently closing, there is no circumstance in which I would choose to view this film for the first time on my television. I like my television, but I like the theater better.

I think releasing a big budget movie VOD 'diminishes' it because most people are just watching it on an iPad or laptop and it's not the same as going out to a movie theater to see it. In a couple years if $20 VOD is the norm, few would really care that the next Avengers movie was coming out because there will be much less advertising and it's basically TV and if you wait, it'll be free on a streaming service in a year so they'll have a hard time charging $20 from all but the biggest fans. Not to mention that no one would pay $20 to see anything in their home except big budget action movies so say goodbye to everything except Marvel and Star Wars movies.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

I think all of that is true, and yet, I think that’s gonna happen anyway in the long run. Studios have wanted day and date for years but haven’t clearly thought through the consequences of that. They think they’ll get extra home video revenue to the theatrical revenue in one fell swoop, when the reality is one will cannabalize the other.

But just the same, I’ve long felt audiences will eventually demand it too.

So maybe we wind up in a scenario like with sports, where the total number of people who watch a game far outnumbers the count of people who are at the stadium, and everyone sees the same movie but only a few people go out to see it and those who do pay a hefty premium for the privilege. Or theaters as we know them will become obsolete (key being “as we know them”)

Streaming has taken up a lot of the storytelling space that the two hour theatrical movie used to occupy. Big budget tentpoles are what’s viable for theatrical, midbudget to lower end of large budget has moved to streaming, and low and micro budget can land on either almost by luck of the draw at the festival circuit. So the idea that a lot of stuff could go away from the theatrical space already seems to be playing out.

To me it felt like this turning point was inevitable; it just may be that this pandemic speeds up the process.

 

[Jake Lipson]

AMC says they are estimating their closure will be for 6-12 weeks. If they're anywhere on the longer end of that estimate, that puts it past Black Widow's current release date and around Wonder Woman's current date. Whatever Disney is waiting for, they might as well just announce the delay now, since they won't have any exhibition partners left on May 1.

 

[Jason_V]

AMC says they are estimating their closure will be for 6-12 weeks. If they're anywhere on the longer end of that estimate, that puts it past Black Widow's current release date and around Wonder Woman's current date. Whatever Disney is waiting for, they might as well just announce the delay now, since they won't have any exhibition partners left on May 1.

I was about to come in here and say that. Everything from now to end of May might as well be postponed/cancelled. There is no way any of it hits the theater on it's scheduled day now...which makes sense. I'm not complaining about it at all, for the record.

When everything is up and running, there will be an embarrassment of riches playing for quite a while, though.

 

[Jason_V]

To no one's surprise...

https://deadline.com/2020/03/black-...ng-may-1-due-to-coronavirus-fears-1202885640/

 

[Jake Lipson]

It's interesting that Disney stopped at Woman in the Window (which was dated for May 15) and didn't also just take Artemis Fowl off the schedule now. That's supposed to come out at the end of May, but I don't see that happening. If theaters are open then, Disney would be smarter to give that slot to one of the bigger films they've recently undated, and if they're not then it's completely moot.