Are new gaming consoles "around the corner"? (1 Viewer)

[Ted Lee]

hi all -

my friend is thinking about picking up a PS2 for her kids. her concern is that it will be obsolete the day after she buys it.

i told her i didn't think so, but wasn't really sure.

so are there any plans for a new gaming platform? or do you think the ps2 (and xbox, etc) will be around for a while?

all comments & suggestions welcome.

thx,

ted

 

[Morgan Jolley]

PS3 should be out sometime around 2005-2006, possibly later (depends on when CELL technology is ready for consumers).

X-Box 2 (or equivalent) should be out around the next World Cup.

GameCube 2 (or euivalent) won't be out until probably 2007 at the earliest. Nintendo wants a full 7 years out of the current console.

So the current generation of consoles still have about 4 years left on them.

 

[BrianB]

And if you believe any of the given dates, you need your head seen to

 

[Dan B]

To sum up the above posts...you can expect another 3-4 years at minimum before the next one arrives, & even then they'll still be making games for the PS2 for a while. They are still releasing games for the PS1, so it's not going to be "obsolete" any time soon.


-Dan

 

[Ted Lee]

cool...thx for the info guys.
in this world, 3-4 years is an eternity, so i think she'll be satisified.
[edit] brian - do you not believe these dates are accurate? if so, why? thx!

 

[Kelley_B]

3D technology is progressing so fast we could very easily see times cut down.

 

[BrianB]

[edit] brian - do you not believe these dates are accurate? if so, why? thx!

Because they're meaningless dates that bear no relationship to the real market, picked out from various interviews over time.

 

[Ted Lee]

so you're thinking it'll be sooner?

 

[BrianB]

No, I think you can't judge the market based on the quotes given. I think we've got about 2 1/2 years until we see the PS3 released in Japan if it's not based on outrageous tech (and I don't think it will be...), with a US release six months later.

That's IF they base schedules on past history - they may not. 2 years is a long ways away. I think predicting "2007" for a new machine at this point is ridiculous - you honestly believe that date, Morgan? The exec or PR guy who said that simply said it to placate parents.

I think we'll see the new machines sooner than we'd like to be honest, the market is changing.

I think buying a PS2 right now is a perfectly fine thing to do. Sony aren't going to announce a PS3 tomorrow, just as Microsoft/Nintendo aren't going to do something similiar. Your friend should feel safe.

 

[Ted Lee]

yeah...my friend is pretty tech-savvy, so she understands the nature of obsolescence.

i agree that anything over 2-3 years is adequate. 3-4 would have been better, but i think she'll be happy with that.

i think she was scared it would be like next year or something.

thanks again guys!

 

[Masood Ali]

I think consumers will get weary of buying new consoles if life cycles are cut lower than 4 years.

At the same time, if consumers are introduced with a new console, the features need to be dramatically better than the current generation; I don't see mid-level graphics accelerators getting to that point before another 2 years.

 

[Camp]

I would not be surprised at all if the next generation of consoles incorporated some form of limited upgradeablity. Perhaps the GPU could be "unplugged" and replaced.

With inroads being made toward a console+media server (Tivo functionality & whatever else they can throw in) consumers will be even less likely to enjoy a 5 year life span.

 

[Sean Moon]

Average console life cycle is 5 years. PS released in 95. PS2 in 2000
N64 in 96, GC in 2001. Good rule of thumb to live by.