Apple: undefeatable!?! (2 Viewers)

[Sam Posten]

And now the biggest bear (Business Insider) is turning into the biggest cheerleader. Not sure what to make of that other than that they are knuckleheads...http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-this-time-its-different-for-apple-2014-8

 

[Rick Thompson]

I've never been an Apple purchaser. I prefer to spec and build my own computers (don't like closed hardware and proprietary connectors that only come from on supplier/seller). Have a tablet and found that I never need to use it, so why bother with an iPad? I also like that my phone is built to military spes and takes lots of abuse without breaking, which means I'd never get an iPhone.

I DO like the edible red ones, though.

I think that covers everything Apple.

 

[Sam Posten]

You are part of a dying breed, Rick.

 

[Rick Thompson]

You are part of a dying breed, Rick.

The death of the PC is, to coin a phrase, greatly exaggerated. As for Apple, it should be noted that in the tablet market they have 26.4 percent market share, and dropping. Do they lead elsewhere? Well, not desktops -- Windows 86 to 9 percent. Not smartphones either -- Android 44 to 27.

And there are headlines like "Apple's tablet market share suffers as tablet growth slows" and "Apple maintains narrowing lead in tablet market share" and "Samsung grabs tablet market share from Apple." (That 26.4 percent is more than anyone else's, but if you go by OS it's pretty much just that 26.4.)

"Apple: undefeatable!?!" Looks like defeat may have already happened!

 

[Clinton McClure]

"I prefer to spec and build my own computers (don't like closed hardware and proprietary connectors that only come from on supplier/seller)."I once had that same mindset, but after years of dealing with the shortcomings of Windows Vista and 7 (to say nothing of the Windows 8 debacle), I walked away from spending a small fortune every two years to build a new machine and bought a MacBook Pro. Best computer decision I ever made.

 

[Sam Posten]

I was talking about hand building, nothing more. Thinking Apple is dying, well.... Different story.

 

[Sam Posten]

Icahn goes from bull to full on adoration:

Critical to our forecast for strong earnings growth is the belief that the iPhone will take significant premium market share. Given historically high retention rates, we assume existing iPhone users will continue to act like an annuity, choosing to stay with the iPhone each time they upgrade. But now, since the iPhone 6 is the most significant improvement to the iPhone since its introduction, we expect users of competitive products to see the iPhone 6/6+ as an exciting opportunity to choose a superior product. Now that iPhone offers a larger screen size, its price competitiveness in the premium phone market is clear, as a premium Android phone such as the Galaxy S5 and Note 4 sells at a similar price point to the iPhone 6 and 6+ respectively. The choice between them is analogous to the choice between a Volkswagen over a Mercedes at the same price, and unlike a Mercedes, the $649 cost of an iPhone 6 is affordable for the mass market, equating to just $20 per month over a two year period (including a $170 estimated resale value of the phone at the end of two years, excluding financing and taxes). We see the iPhone remaining unaffected by the “junk”, as you called it, sold at lower price points, but we also see it dominating the entire class of premium Android smartphones, such as Samsung’s Galaxy phones. Because of this, we expect Apple will take premium market share, while at the same time maintaining its prices and gross margins, proving the concept of commoditization is nothing more than a myth with regards to Apple. Beyond simple price comparison, we see the iPhone as best in class, supported by expert reviews and by the lines of people all over the world waiting to buy it. Perhaps most importantly, we believe the iPhone will take market share because its merits are no longer viewed in isolation from the overall Apple ecosystem of products and services, which include iOS, iPad, Mac, Apps, App Store, iCloud, iTunes, and (more recently) Apple Watch, Apple Pay, Home, Health, Continuity, Beats. With the iPhone as the foundation, Apple’s ecosystem has come to play an important role in the daily life of Apple users, and while Apple continues to make impressive strides to improve it, the competition falls behind in what is arguably the most important race of this technological era.

http://carlicahn.tumblr.com/

 

[Ted Todorov]

The death of the PC is, to coin a phrase, greatly exaggerated. As for Apple, it should be noted that in the tablet market they have 26.4 percent market share, and dropping. Do they lead elsewhere? Well, not desktops -- Windows 86 to 9 percent. Not smartphones either -- Android 44 to 27.

And there are headlines like "Apple's tablet market share suffers as tablet growth slows" and "Apple maintains narrowing lead in tablet market share" and "Samsung grabs tablet market share from Apple." (That 26.4 percent is more than anyone else's, but if you go by OS it's pretty much just that 26.4.)

"Apple: undefeatable!?!" Looks like defeat may have already happened!

Let's see: Apple seems to be far and away the most successful PC OEM whatever its market share, with HP being the latest one to all but bail from the market. Pretty much Lenovo is the only somewhat stable rival in the PC market Apple has left.

Tablets: wake me up when someone actually passes Apple's sales of 225 million iPads and counting.

Phones: Apple and Samsung are the *ONLY* companies making a profit in the phone business: all others put together are losing money, many losing big money. And now Samsung is in freefall as sales are starting to crater.

Market share is nice, but market share bought via red ink is unsustainable. And that is what every Apple rival whose name isn't Samsung has achieved.

 

[Carlo_M]

So according to Macrumors:
Apple Reports Q4 2014 Year-End Results: $8.5 Billion Profit on $42.1 Billion in Revenue

I can't tell if that's good anymore in this wonky world of stock market speculation. I know I'd be thrilled to run a company that generated that, but of course investors may be disappointed that it wasn't more?

 

[Ted Todorov]

So according to Macrumors:
Apple Reports Q4 2014 Year-End Results: $8.5 Billion Profit on $42.1 Billion in Revenue

I can't tell if that's good anymore in this wonky world of stock market speculation. I know I'd be thrilled to run a company that generated that, but of course investors may be disappointed that it wasn't more?

They're not disappointed -- stock is up 1.5% in after-hours trading.

 

[Sam Posten]

Asymco posted a few analysts raising their target from $112 to $125ish too for whatever that is worth in bizaroo stock world...

 

[McPaul]

AAPL hit whisper number of 1.42 eps for Q4. Very good thing as whisper for this quarter was .11 above street consensus estimates.

 

[Sam Posten]

I agree with just about every word of this. Brilliantly boiled down:
http://stratechery.com/2014/best/

 

[Sam Posten]

Quips The Loop: "There is no doubt this is now Tim Cook's Apple:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/4064a6fe-7fd7-11e4-adff-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/companies_technology/feed//product#axzz3LbqYuXU3

 

[Sam Posten]

I agree with this strongly:
http://www.marco.org/2015/01/04/apple-lost-functional-high-ground

There is no doubt Apple's hardware team is iterating at blistering speed with amazing results. The Software team needs more time to make stuff polished and polish needs to be more of a priority.

 

[Carlo_M]

The main thing saving Apple right now is that as buggy as their iOS and OSX have become, Windows and Android have done their best to also be buggy as well. Microsoft had a pretty stable Windows 7 platform and then they released Windows "You Don't Need the Start Bar" 8. Only to release a "Just Kidding You Do Need The Start Bar" later version. So while the extra bugginess does bother me, the grass isn't greener on the other side of the fence.

That said, I agree with the premise that Apple needs to abandon the hard-and-fixed timeline for annual updates, and just release updates when they're good and ready.

But in Apple's defense, I don't think they're just releasing software annually "just to do it". I think they're feeling pressured to release new software, especially iOS, to roughly coincide with the new phone releases, in order to entice people to update their hardware, to make them feel like the next version of the iPhone/iPad really is a new experience. Often there are features in the new iOS that only work on the new iPhone/iPad that is concurrently released. And hardware they do have to update regularly to keep up with the Joneses.

So I can understand the bind that Apple's in.

 

[mattCR]

Yeah, really iOS is causing me more headaches since 8 then I've had in any Apple tablet OS. I'm using an IpadAir with Cellular, and it's OK, it functions fine.. but I have more 'crashes' or apps lock on my Ipad then I have ever had before. I thought it was the iPad Air. So, I had Apple Store trade it back in. Same thing, it appears far too many apps just aren't there yet.

There are also some functional things they've done that aren't good. It's a mixed bag.

I admit, I love my Nokia 1520 (WP8.1) and have zero desire to change, but one thing Apple used to have that was great was app stability. In fact, I had considered swapping back to the iPhone6 for one app: Audible. Audible is on WP, but the apple version is far superior. Still, that app is now having some IOS8 issues.

The hardware is great.. but some of the things I now take for granted it doesn't do well. Siri, while introduced first seams pretty weak in comparison to Cortana (WP) or Google's thing on my Wife's phone. I ask my IpadAir a few things and it's "OK" but the way Cortana works is a whole other animal; and so it is hard to think about that loss.

Apple's hardware is pretty good. I have no issues with it. Microsoft screwed up badly with Win8, though Win10 betas have been very pleasant. (And, if you install a start bar in 8, like Startisback, etc. it's nice and fast and stable.. I can't think of any crash I've ever had in it, period.

 

[Ted Todorov]

So Apple just scored a record, breaking not just for Apple, but apparently for any company, ever: http://techcrunch.com/2015/01/27/apple-just-had-the-biggest-quarterly-earnings-of-any-company-ever/


And a fun, informative article from Ben Thompson about the perpetual misunderstanding of Apple by the naysayers: http://stratechery.com/2015/bad-assumptions/

 

[Sam Posten]

Good article Ted. As a counterpoint I think this cuts to the heart of what worries some long time Apple fans, moreso even than the short term quality issues with software:

http://www.loopinsight.com/2015/01/29/remember-when-apple-was-going-to-change-the-world/?utm_source=loopinsight.com&utm_campaign=loopinsight.com&utm_medium=referral


People have thought of Apple so long as the scrappy underdog that it's ponderous why they aren't doing something better with their time than just making iterations on phones and high end computers. There has to be something more noble or revolutionary to excite them every so often.


My take on it is: give it time. Nothing Apple does comes quickly and I still see great days ahead for them, they aren't just coasting.

 

[Carlo_M]

Just reminds me of an article I saw back in 2012, something along the lines of "$10K of Apple stock ten years ago (2002) would now be worth over $600K". And that was in 2012 before the recent stock split.