Any data on WS vs. P&S sales? (1 Viewer)

[BobH]

For movies that have been released in both WS and P&S, does anyone have any sales data that shows the percentages of people buying one or the other.

I would assume it might depend on the type of movie, for example. Cats & Dogs was both but it was hard finding the WS and I would guess P&S was suitable for little kids. AI was both but I would assume a larger percentage of buyers preferred the WS. Fellowship of the Rings might also go mostly WS but maybe not.

Surely this information is known because Blockbuster is promoting P&S and they must know. (snicker, snicker)

 

[Jeff Kleist]

Since several major retailers (Blockbuster, Wal-Mart) screw their orders well into the favor of, if not exclusively P&S versions, those numbers are really not valid even if we did have them.

On a major title (Mummy Returns) I remember the WS holding it's own very well.

 

[Joshua Clinard]

If you go to my site, Widescreen Advocate, and click on dvd sales and stats, you will get some numbers. These are not complete numbers, they are taken from Amazon's sales ranks, however you will see that the numbers are almost always in favor of WS.

 

[William Ward]

If you use stats from Wal-Mart/K-Mart, you'll get numbers skewed MAR. IF you use stats from the internet/Best Buy, you'll get skewed WS. Circuit City is a wash because they tend to order more P&S than Best Buy but the customers there are more techie oriented and are more likely(BUT NOT ALWAYS) to understand/prefer WS.

The overall numbers are going to be more useful, but Wal-Mart, for instance, only does research with Wal-Mart customers. Now if Wal-Mart stocked both versions, the casual customer(who wants the product) who is unaware of the release data is going to see the artwork and purchase it. They're not going to notice if it says WS or P&S. So the casual customers will skew Wal-Marts data in the direction of whatever they happen to stock.

If a casual customer buys Willy Wonka at Wal-Mart, they're going to buy the MAR version. And, according to Wal-Mart, this means that they DON'T like WS. In all actuality, they couldn't care less and could have purchased the WS if it had been available.

The real question of the MAR/OAR debate, is which side would refuse to buy the other's products?

Obviously by the stats of TPM , The Matrix, Gladiator, and Cast Away, MAR buyers are far more likely to purchase an OAR release than OAR buyers are to purchase MAR releases.

 

[AaronMK]

I would guess P&S was suitable for little kids.

Since when was P&S suitable for anyone? :rolleyes

 

[BobH]

Yes, stupid of me: I was making the unfair characterization of the "soccer mom" buying the version that fits the kitchen TV so the kids can be "baby-sat".

 

[BobH]

So you're all saying that the mass buyers are choosing MAR to put on the shelves and then basing their next buying decisions based on the high sales of MAR? So the public doesn't decide what gets purchased, the "buyers", with their circular reasoning, do? So the buyers are really stupid and don't want to increase sales by learning the truth (however that turns out to be)?

So campaigns to convince the studios to produce OAR should be more correctly aimed at mass buyers?

 

[William Ward]

Bob: If I'm in charge of making the DVD specs, the questions I ask myself are these:

X title has Y potential sales

IF I release X title OAR only, how many lost sales would there be????

If I release X title MAR only, how many lost sales would there be???

There are people in both camps(OAR and MAR) and people that don't care either way. The folks that don't care won't make a difference. The difference maker is which camp will break down and purchase the others favored format??

Thus far, the results say MAR lovers are likely to break down and purchase the OAR version far more than OAR lovers are to break down and purchase the MAR version. I'd like some numbers to compare The Karate Kid which is MAR only to The Goonies which is OAR only. Both are 80's family flicks and would seem to have similar target audiences.

I posted a thread on the Buccaneers Message Board several months ago and most didn't care either way. But there were more who said they'd never buy it MAR over those who said they'd never buy it OAR(by about 2 to 1). Now, having it on the internet automatically biases it towards folks with a bit more knowledge about technical things so it's a wee bit skewed. But it was a non-DVD/HT site so it does hold a little merit.

 

[Dave Barth]

There are people in both camps(OAR and MAR) and people that don't care either way. The folks that don't care won't make a difference. The difference maker is which camp will break down and purchase the others favored format??

Thus far, the results say MAR lovers are likely to break down and purchase the OAR version far more than OAR lovers are to break down and purchase the MAR version.

This claim, however, isn't right -- unless the groups are equal size.

Suppose only 2% of the population wants OAR and will only buy OAR. The other 98% prefers pan and scan / open matte releases where applicable, but fully half of them will buy a widescreen OAR release if it is the only one available.

Now suppose a title comes along that everyone wants, if they can get it in the aspect ratio they prefer. That is, if both types of discs were released, 100% of the population would own it.

An OAR-only release would get a market penetration of 51% = 2% + 1/2 * 98%.

A MAR-only release gets a market penetration of 98%.

Thus, in this framework, where the OAR folks won't break down while the MAR ones will half the time, and the MAR group far outnumbers the OAR group:

(1) the MAR release is the more profitable type of disc to release if only one disc can be released

(2) the OAR disc is worth releasing only if the extra 2% of market share it covers the expenses of making the OAR disc

Now, let me say that as a general proposition the greater unwillingness of people who prefer OAR to break down and buy MAR product certainly makes it more likely that the OAR disc will be released. But it's not true that this is the only factor, or even necessarily the decisive one.

For what it's worth, I have no idea exactly what the right numbers are. I picked 2%, 0%, and 50% arbitrarily to make the math simple.

 

[AaronMK]

While it might not completely tip the scales, you should also include in those equations how many more purchases each person in the OAR camp makes.

I consider myself one of the less frequent purchasers in the OAR camp, and I have averaged about 25 - 30 titles a year so far. I don't think most P&S buyers average more than 5 titles a year, and that is generous estimate.

Also, if sales of OAR only titles are any indication, I don't think it is nearly 50% of P&S buyers who would not buy a title because it is OAR only.

 

[BobH]

Aaron, I think your adjustments make more sense (thank goodness) but these guesses are exactly why I started this thread: Does anyone have any real data or is it too complicated to pull apart (as several have suggested)?

 

[george kaplan]

Dave, the Bayesian statistics are a good approach, but I think your priors are way off base.

In my opinion, it's more like

10% want OAR

20% want p&s

70% don't care

Of the OAR, ~0% would buy p&s

of the P&S, 90% would buy OAR

So we get

OAR only

10% + 20%(90%) + 70%= 98% market penetration

P&S only

10%(0%) + 20% + 70% = 90% market penetration

 

[LukeB]

of the P&S, 90% would buy OAR

I'd like to think that's true, but I'm not too sure. I wouldn't be surprised if people bought a VHS of a movie they liked over DVD because it was P & S. Some people can be silly.

 

[AaronMK]

I wouldn't be surprised if people bought a VHS of a movie they liked over DVD because it was P & S.

I really wish this were the case. If so, this discussion would be pretty irrelevent, as the studios would seeing that P&S revenue anyway and would have no reason to release P&S DVDs.

I really believe that most die hard P&Sers are really not too concerned or care about the better quality of DVD over VHS. I think it is more of a coolness factor of having movies on shiny CD sized discs or "look, I have a DVD player" to them.