A different opinion on the launch of Blu-Ray (1 Viewer)

[Robert Crawford]

Somebody explain to me why the HD DVD spec can't change?





Crawdaddy

 

[EricCr]

I for one will be surprised if 2 million PS3 are sold this year and 6 million by the end of Q1 '07. If you look back at the PS2 launch they kept giving out gigantic numbers for expected sales and as the launch date got closer the number they thought they could ship kept dropping. They launched with just under half the systems that they said they would in the US and that was what in large part created the sellouts we saw. Japan loves Sony to death but in several articles I have read on gaming sites recent polls in Japan show a large percentage planing on buying the Wii and not the PS3, at least at first. Sony keeps saying they have sold something like 50 million PS2 but how many of those are to people who bought a system, it broke, and they bought another? I would say a good amount of the systems sold went to people who already owned one and replaced it.

 

[Adam Portrais]

Just remember Dave, if Blu-ray keeps on with MPEG-2 then the larger disc size means nothing. And if you ask me, I doubt they'll be a ton of VC1 Blu-ray discs out there because with every MPEG-2 disc Sony makes some money, where as VC1 that tiny bit of money will go to Microsoft. I just don't see Sony taking too many chances to not make money. Because as I've always said- "No one loves Sony more than Sony."

Oh, and Sony selling 6 million PS3s by end of Q1 '07 is laughable. Same old Sony- Over promice and under deliver.

 

[Rob_Walton]

Players already on the market (or in production for the market) could become incompatible, which is not a good thing for consumer adoption.

 

[Rob_Walton]

Most people seem to listen to music in their cars, while most watch movies in their homes. The first is a poor place to want to experience HighDef audio, while the second is great one for experiencing both top notch PQ and AQ. It strikes me that UMD, DVD-A, and SACD all failed to take into account where consumers actually want to experience their media.

 

[EricCr]

It has been confirmed by Amir at AVS that the drives in the Toshiba are capable of reading 45GB discs with a firmware upgrade so that should not stop them adding it to the spec. He is one of the head people at Microsoft working on the AC-1 codec and other HD DVD related software so he should be in the know.

 

[Cees Alons]

Yes, I had a bit of a chuckle about that one too. Specs change all the time (see wireless protocols).
In fact a MS "rep" was quoted saying that the current HD DVD players could "easily" be changed by a firmware update to read 45Gb discs.

Now, it's still rather vague, and we will have to see if it becomes true, but it certainly isn't "impossible". Least of all in a discussion about the two formats, now one of it still has to have its definitive launch.


Cees

 

[Rob_Walton]

Amir has said many things about both formats, some of which have proven to be less than accurate: for instance his "inside info" on Warner Brother's plans. Since 45Gb HD DVD playback has not been demonstrated anywhere on an HD DVD player (to my knowledge) it might be a little early to start talking about this being added as a firmware update to a pre-existing player.

Sony aren't the only company providing authoring for BD, so it doesn't really matter which codec they want to use. Matsushita have set up AVC authoring facilities in both the US and Europe, so we should see discs from their process coming down the pipeline fairly soon. Though the first to market with non-MPEG2 BDs might well be Warner Brothers with VC-1 releases (apparently only their first 5 titles are going to be MPEG2), but I'm not sure who's authoring these discs. It's not Microsoft is it?!

 

[Cees Alons]

Of course it matters. If they continue to use MPEG-2, they're sacrificing part of the space advantage on their BD discs. This has nothing to do with the fact that other studios may produce better discs.


Cees

 

[Robert Crawford]

That could be a problem, but that doesn't mean it should stop 45GB discs from happening.

Is it me or do we always have some supporters from either format always suggesting why one format will have problems while offering resolutions to the issues connected to the format they're supporting? I'm not calling anybody out specifically, but your intentions are apparent to many of us.

 

[RobertR]

That's why I always take a "just show me what you have" approach. So far, HDVD shows me better than BR.

 

[Rob_Walton]

My reply was to a poster who seemed to think Sony controlled authoring for BD. Taken out of context I'd agree it looks a little silly, but then again if 6 studios are using AVC/VC-1 with decent PQ what chance is there that Sony will be the only hold out with MPEG2?

 

[Rob_Walton]

Interestingly put! No one specific: you.

There are obviously issues for both formats, but not all issues are of the same order.

The most obvious problems for BD are; the lack of next gen codecs (with word from Panasonic, Warners, and Keith Jack that this issue is almost resolved) ; the lack of 50Gb dual layer discs (though with recordables already available the process is certainly possible, so it seems to be a game of raising yeilds, which is a job for the boys at Panny) ; and not enough hardware solutions (which is scheduled to be alleviated this winter). Out of those the one which looks like it has potential to continue and become a problem is the lack of dual layer discs.

The issues for HD DVD are; not enough studio support (there were rumours a while back of movement from Lion's Gate, but not heard of anything new) ; not enough hardware solutions (Sanyo and LG did have players demoed at CES but they've since gone quiet, again not heard anything new) ; and recording capacity constraints (45Gb discs have been mentioned, but the issue will only start to be solved if it's first added to the spec) .

The resolutions to the issues with BD (bar the dual layer delay) are offered not by posters on internet message boards but by the companies involved. I've not heard solutions for the HD DVD issues from any of the CE companies. I'm sorry if this looks to you like I'm personally suggesting solutions to BD problems and not to HD DVD problems, but that's simply not the case.

 

[Lew Crippen]

Of course that is correct Rob, but I think that it is somewhat of a minor issue.

If the specs changed today, only a few tens of thousands of consumers would be affected—mostly early adopters who will likely buy new models in the future in any case (at least if those who bought in early to DVD and post here are representative).

Of course the viability of commercial production of 45GB HD-DVD disks is another matter. But if it is possible and if (two ‘ifs’ in the same sentence) the advantages of the 50GB Blu-Ray disks prove to be swaying the tide to that format, you can bet that the HD-DVD specs will change in a New York Minute.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Specs don't change for AV formats the same way they change for your PC or cell phone (which are designed to accept evolving operating systems).

The CD and DVD formats were set at launch and it was incumbant that any "changes" to software down the road guarantee compatibility with first-generation players. That's what is meant by a "red book CD" or a "red book DVD": it conforms to all format specs to ensure compatibility with all properly functioning playback hardware. This is why DTS DVDs still need a DD or PCM soundtrack (DTS was added after launch), and its why "HDCD" compact discs still needed to play just fine in standard CD players that could only interpret standard 16/44.1 LPCM data. The same principles apply to any "red book HD DVD" or "red book BD".

Now, is it *possible* that Toshiba my revise the HD DVD format to incorporate 45 gig playback? Anything is *possible* so statements like that shouldn't mislead anyone. If they actually did plan to make such a change and restructure the HD DVD format they would probably have to do it within the life span of the first or second generation Toshiba-built player... because if any changes they made for 45 gigs generated problems with those players (or they could be updated to work) they'd be responsible for smoothing things over with consumers.

If we ever reached a (??) point where other non-Toshiba brand HD DVD players come to market (not Toshiba clones), political pressure by the other manufacturers would keep Toshiba from altering the spec at that point because of the widespread player incompatibility issues that would result.

Amir says lots of things about the glories of how the A1 can be updated. Much of it may point toward reasonable expectations, but much of it is also spin he gives in order to deflect criticism of the player or the format (for instance, constantly being vauge about whether the player can be upgraded to full 5.1 Dolby True HD... when critisicm of the 2-channel limitation starts to get harsh).

If Toshiba was to revamp their spec and introduce a change like adding in 45 gig discs they would have to do it *** NOW *** while all the players on the market are their own since they would be responsible for handling any incompatibility/upgrade issues.

 

[RobertR]

The skepticism about the value of "hires audio" I mentioned didn't come from people who listen to audio in their cars. It came from people who own equipment such as Krell amps and Apogee ribbons.

By the way, I cite this review of the BR Training Day disc as evidence that better audio takes a back seat to extras in the minds of studio execs.

 

[Robert Crawford]

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Again,

all things are *possible*.

Is it possible that tomorrow Toshiba will announce they've abandoned HD DVD and embraced BD? Sure it is. Yet you and I will probably state with confidence that Toshiba will "never" embrace BD and we shouldn't be taken to task for our wording.

My comments about "never" are based in the real-world scenario of AV formats and how red-book compatibility is regarded among software and player manufacturers.

Could Toshiba radically make a departure from the shared paradigm of the industry and change their format mid-stream? It's "possible" but extreemly, extreemly, unlikely (the drive in the A1 was a PC-based HD DVD drive so of course it can physically read 45 gig discs since they are intended for PCs... Amirs comments about the drive reading 45 gig should not be taken out of context to suggest that the red-book HD DVD video format is likely to change).

Please folks. I'm doing my best to share real information that's accurate and fact-based. It does get frustrating here and at AVS when every-other post is either innacurate, misleading, or misinformed, so let's have a little flexibility with wording here. Argue with semantics if you must, but I encourage everyone to take a step back and try to look at the message itself.

BTW, just so no one tries to throw a "biased" dart my way, let me also volunteer that, sadly, the BD format was finalized without incorporating 100 gig playback compatiblity... which IMO was one of the big reasons to vote for BD to begin with (season sets all on one disc... sigh). Well, that's it now. It's over. A software company *could* try to make a 100 gig disc for BD video but it wouldn't play in the majority of players and couldn't even bear the Blu-ray logo on the case.

Both 100 gig BD and 45 gig HD DVD, however, will become main-stays of the computer-storage/media market. That's really where these advances in capacity were aimed by the developers (and those media types aren't bound by red-book HD DVD/BD constraints).

That was the context of my 2nd remark.

 

[Robert Crawford]

David,
I'm not trying to be argumentative, but you have a tendency of doing the following with your comments. Sharing your informed opinion with us, but then stating it as the indisputable gospel of what's going to happen in the future.






Crawdaddy

 

[DaViD Boulet]

my appologies to anyone who interpreted my "never" as indesputable gospel. I hope that the context of established red-book AV media industry protocol over the past 30 years provides a reasonable qualifier.