24 and its impact on future TV releases (1 Viewer)

[Jason Seaver]

"Alias" would seem like a pretty reasonable bet, although Buena Vista has yet to announce a still-in-production series for DVD. Of course, Buena Vista Home Video appears to be fairly conservative - I wouldn't be terribly surprised if they were waiting to see what happens with "24" before deciding what to do with "Alias".

 

[Chris Rock]

Take Alias, for example. What chance we might see that out as a first-season box-set soon. It's an ongoing story, like 24, plus it's also just won a load of Emmy nominations, just like 24. Also, it's produced by Disney, which just recently announced the upcoming releases of Sports Night, Once and Again and Felicity.

Alias on DVD. . .

Please, God. Please.

 

[Richard Waller]

I don't think Alias would play well in syndication. ABC/Disney, please release it on DVD.

 

[David Lambert]

Richard, you just think it'll tank on the syndie circuit, eh?

 

[Bill Buklis]

Actually I've always had the opinion that releasing a series on DVD early like with 24 wouldn't significantly hurt the syndication market, while at the same time would boost DVD sales and interest for the upcoming season.

Just think, how many series might have sold on DVD better if the series was still fresh. It's the same thing with movies. Newer movies tend to sell better than catalog titles. Those who are truly interested will buy the title whether it's old or new. But for the general population, it helps a lot if its new, fresh, and active.

As for the syndication market, those who'd mainly watch it on syndication probably wouldn't buy the DVD anyway. Seriously has video tapes (and now DVDs) of Star Trek, Twilight Zone, etc. really made that much of an impact on the syndication market?

 

[Sean Aaron]

What about the West Wing then-I'd like to see that on DVD sometime...

Series one will be out in R2 in the very near future (they're advertising it on tv over here).

 

[Yee-Ming]

Series one will be out in R2 in the very near future

errrr, it already is. I have a copy of the first half at home, and I just received the second half today
I believe the single box-set (i.e. the whole season) set was released at the same time as the second half.

 

[Jason Seaver]

Actually I've always had the opinion that releasing a series on DVD early like with 24 wouldn't significantly hurt the syndication market, while at the same time would boost DVD sales and interest for the upcoming season.

But what about the regular season? For example, NBC is paying something like $20M/episode for "ER". How significant an impact does it have to have on NBC's ratings before they start losing income?

Of course, that's an extreme example, and Warner would have to play catch-up first.

 

[DeborahK]

Jason Seaver has a very valid point about the clear hazzards of putting a show onto DVD too early. But, do we have to wait for 100 @#$%^* episodes (about 5 years of a successful series) to get it on DVD? I am sure that a 12 to 18 month lag for the release of season sets of popular shows would not hurt any on-going season or threaten eventual syndication, and such sets would probably sell very well. I wish these guys would find a new model that could bring us some of this stuff earlier. Sometimes the wait is so long that by the time this stuff comes on the US market, enthusiasts and potential buyers have lost interest and moved on.

Deborah

 

[Kenneth Cummings]

I guessing when Disney rolls out that special edition of movies like Aladdin, they will probably release a season set of their spinoff cartoon. But anyways I hoping Futurama does get release soon on DVD in region 1. As I not going to import anytime soon.

 

[Jason Seaver]

But, do we have to wait for 100 @#$%^* episodes (about 5 years of a successful series) to get it on DVD? I am sure that a 12 to 18 month lag for the release of season sets of popular shows would not hurt any on-going season or threaten eventual syndication, and such sets would probably sell very well.

If I had to guess, I'd say we'll eventually see it settle down to about two years - long enough that studios aren't cannibalizing the first-run and second-run ratings, but short enough that the show still has some buzz to it. Highly serialized shows (or other ones where the third-run could be a tough sell) like "24", "Alias", "Sopranos" and "The Shield" come out quicker.

Then the trick becomes staggering the releases somehow. Anything with one-year window is going to want a right-before-the-new-season release date, and unless the seasons are staggered (which, when you throw cable shows in the mix, does happen somewhat), it could create a pile-up.

There are going to be other goofy considerations, too - if I were Fox, for instance, I wouldn't have wanted to release an "X-Files" box set with David Duchovny in it anywhere near the start of the past two seasons - similarly, Paramount should be terrified of releasing TNG sets near the season premiere of "Enterprise".

But, hey, they're new at this. I think "Malcolm In The Middle", as much as "24", is going to be the test. If it's a hit, I imagine everyone is going to try and put their shows on a "two-or-three years to video" schedule, especially if "Malcolm" gets a good syndication deal for its third-run episodes (which should start, what, next fall?). If it's DOA, well, back to niche shows.

And maybe after that, studios will start putting their TV bombs out on video just like their movie bombs. I want "The Tick", "Maximum Bob", "Strange World", and even "Thanks" on DVD, dammit!

(Then it'll be time to test the direct-to-video TV series. Start with "Flatland", since nobody seems to want to pick this up)

 

[Bill Buklis]

Sometimes the wait is so long that by the time this stuff comes on the US market, enthusiasts and potential buyers have lost interest and moved on.

This was basically the point I was trying to make. I think they lose sales when they wait 5 or more years to release product.

Now there's certainly a valid concern that if it is released two quickly, will it kill new seasons? For the syndication market, DVD releases should have little to no effect. But a season is released just before the new one would people skip the year and just buy it on DVD?

Some would, but most wouldn't. The first airing of a TV series is always the most important. Repeats never get the same ratings. On top of that most people don't buy shows/movies they haven't seen.

Now perhaps only a 1 year window may be too quick for the average series. But, I seriously doubt if you'd hurt anything if it was released only 2 years. Or better yet, 1 1/2 half years. Release it at the end of the first season or right after May sweeps week. This way you continue interest through the summer and won't cannabalize the upcoming season.

 

[todd s]

I said it once. I will say it again. Their are two types of people. The ones who would never buy a show on dvd and would watch it in syndication. And ones who would buy a show on dvd, even if it is on 24 hours a day in syndication. I think the studios would be smart to start releasing shows that are not in syndication. Even if they are just bare bones, but as long as the picture & sound quality is good. Their are so many Scifi/fantasy shows out there that die hard fans will buy. And you know their has to be tens of thousands that would. I was at a Trek convention a few years back. Their was a guy selling poor looking vhs copies of scifi/fantasy shows. He was selling a ton. The studios should do what Martin of Paramount did a few months back. Have people give suggestions as to what shows they would like to see. And the the top 10 or whatever are released. Either they release it and make some money or they sit in a storage facility collecting dust.