2021 At The Box Office (1 Viewer)

[Josh Steinberg]

I think the only one hurt by Cinemark’s decision not to play it is Cinemark.

 

[Malcolm R]

Reportedly Disney wanted a 50/50 split with theaters, and Cinemark and the others that declined to show the film wanted a more favorable split as they've basically been closed for a year and with the film being available on D+.

The question to how much money was truly lost would depend on whether there are other theaters in the same market as a Cinemark that are showing the film so the people still went to the other theaters to see it. Or if some of those potential Cinemark customers ponied up the $30 for the D+ version (probably the equivalent of 8-10 theater tickets at a 50/50 split for each premium sale on D+).

$30 spent on tickets to a Disney film at a theater returns only $15 to Disney, while the entire $30 spent on D+ goes to Disney.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Charts with Dan for this week:

 

[Jake Lipson]

I think the only one hurt by Cinemark’s decision not to play it is Cinemark.

I would like to think that. But if some people live in an area where Cinemark is the predominant movie theater chain, that might not be the case. I live around a whole bunch of Cinemarks. We also have one AMC, which has the wheelchair seats exclusively in the back and which I refuse to patronize for this reason. So if I was going to go to Raya in a theater, the AMC which I don't like would have been my only option.

Now, granted, I am high risk and I do not yet feel comfortable returning to theaters. So even if Cinemark had played it, I was always going to see it on Disney+, which I did. But I do think having several chains not playing the movie limited options for some people who would ordinarily have gone to the theater.

AMC is playing the movie, but Regal (the #2 chain) Is closed. Cinemark (#3) is not playing the movie. Harkins, which is the #5 theater chain in the U.S., is also not playing the movie. Cineplex, which is in Canada, is also not playing it.

It's very possible that people who can't see it at a local Cinemark did the Premier Access thing. But we're not going to have a look at those numbers because Disney doesn't have to release them.

When you have a family movie do significantly more business last week despite worse reviews, it does indicate that perhaps Raya's box office has been depressed a bit.

But there are a lot of variables here which we as fans aren't going to know for sure.

 

[Jeff Adkins]

I would like to think that. But if some people live in an area where Cinemark is the predominant movie theater chain, that might not be the case. I live around a whole bunch of Cinemarks. We also have one AMC, which has the wheelchair seats exclusively in the back and which I refuse to patronize for this reason. So if I was going to go to Raya in a theater, the AMC which I don't like would have been my only option.

Now, granted, I am high risk and I do not yet feel comfortable returning to theaters. So even if Cinemark had played it, I was always going to see it on Disney+, which I did. But I do think having several chains not playing the movie limited options for some people who would ordinarily have gone to the theater.

AMC is playing the movie, but Regal (the #2 chain) Is closed. Cinemark (#3) is not playing the movie. Harkins, which is the #5 theater chain in the U.S., is also not playing the movie. Cineplex, which is in Canada, is also not playing it.

It's very possible that people who can't see it at a local Cinemark did the Premier Access thing. But we're not going to have a look at those numbers because Disney doesn't have to release them.

When you have a family movie do significantly more business last week despite worse reviews, it does indicate that perhaps Raya's box office has been depressed a bit.

But there are a lot of variables here which we as fans aren't going to know for sure.

Do you know if Cinemark and Harkins are both playing Tom & Jerry?

 

[Jake Lipson]

Do you know if Cinemark and Harkins are both playing Tom & Jerry?

I know Cinemark is. I don't know about Harkins since I don't have one of those around here. But it made news when the theaters boycotted Raya and I have not heard anything similar in regards to a boycott for T&J. Certainly, the fact that T&J's opening last weekend was so much larger than Raya at least suggests that they have more theaters on board.

Warner Bros. is giving theaters a larger percentage of the gross than they normally would to compensate the theaters for the lack of exclusivity due to their HBO Max arrangement.

As Malcom said, Disney still wanted a 50/50 split despite the fact that Raya is also available on Disney+. So that's why they declined to take it. Their argument is basically, "You can't expect the same terms as usual if you are breaking the traditional window." They probably would have shown it at a 50/50 split if they had the traditional 90-day exclusivity, or if Disney gave them a higher percentage of the gross. But not both.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Charts with Dan for this week. We have a new (old) #1 movie of all time worldwide.

 

[Tino]

LWReleaseGross%± LWTheatersChangeAverageTotal GrossWeeksDistributor

1	1	Raya and the Last Dragon	$5,150,000	-9.8%	2,261	+98	$2,277	$23,432,606	3	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
2	-	Tom and Jerry	$3,800,000	-7.3%	2,508	+54	$1,515	$33,700,000	4	Warner Bros.
3	-	The Courier	$2,012,582	-	1,433	-	$1,404	$2,012,582	1	Roadside Attractions
4	3	Chaos Walking	$1,925,000	-14.4%	2,132	+137	$902	$9,693,633	3	Lionsgate
5	5	The Croods: A New Age	$620,000	+14.6%	1,411	-29	$439	$55,244,578	17	Universal Pictures
6	4	Boogie	$600,000	-22.9%	1,184	-88	$506	$3,262,475	3	Focus Features
7	7	The Marksman	$480,000	+6.1%	1,002	-103	$479	$14,268,447	10	Open Road Films (II)
8	-	Wonder Woman 1984	$460,000	+15%	1,158	+19	$397	$45,560,000	13	Warner Bros.
9	-	The Little Things	$340,000	-15%	1,130	-173	$300	$14,708,000	8	Warner Bros.
10	8	The Father	$321,701	-25.8%	933	+68	$344	$969,640	4	Sony Pictures Classics
11	15	Minari	$306,000	+131.4%	786	+504	$389	$1,396,723	6	A24
12	-	City of Lies	$275,049	-	501	-	$549	$275,049	1	Saban Films
13	-	Judas and the Black Messiah	$250,000	+48.8%	951	+174	$262	$5,020,000	6	Warner Bros.
14	-	Nomadland	$244,000	-	650	-	$375	$1,908,000	5	Searchlight Pictures
15	19	Promising Young Woman	$195,000	+117.8%	831	+334	$234	$5,724,765	13	Focus Features
16	13	Monster Hunter	$155,000	+8.8%	312	-691	$496	$14,824,096	14	Screen Gems
17	11	Long Weekend	$110,000	-55.1%	821	+7	$133	$446,481	2	Stage 6 Films
18	20	The War with Grandpa	$97,426	+11.5%	413	-22	$235	$20,870,717	24	101 Studios
19	14	Dutch	$86,336	-36.1%	180	-22	$479	$276,939	2	Faith Media Distribution
20	16	Lamb of God: The Concert Film	$82,000	-36.9%	133	+29	$616	$305,496	2	Excel Entertainment
21	21	News of the World	$75,000	-4%	698	-5	$107	$12,413,035	13	Universal Pictures
22	18	Land

 

[Jake Lipson]

Charts with Dan for this week:

 

[Jake Lipson]

Cineworld (which owns Regal) has reached a deal with Warner Bros. to play their hybrid theatrical/HBO Max titles this year beginning with Godzilla v. Kong. They didn't have one before because they chose to close all of their locations before this plan started with WW84, so they didn't need one because they weren't going to be open anyway.

Now, they intend to reopen their U.S. locations in April.

The most interesting thing about this deal to me is what it stipulates for next year. Beginning in 2022, WB is guaranteeing a 45-day theatrical window for Regal to show their movies. This means, of course, that the other chains will expect the same thing.

Regal Cinemas To Reopen In April; Parent Cineworld & Warner Bros Reach Multi-Year Deal To Show WB Films In U.S. & UK

EXCLUSIVE: Cineworld has set plans to reopen its Regal cinemas in the U.S. for the first time in six months. The phased process will start with a limited number of cinemas opening for WB/Legendary’s Godzilla Vs Kong on April 2 (note the movie opens on March 31). Regal locations will open more...

deadline.com

45 days is half of the previously-standard 90 days, but it's still more than WB is doing right now.

I know that WB said this hybrid release plan was only for 2021, but I was skeptical that they plan to drop it. Same-day theatrical titles is now a calling card for HBO Max, and it will be interesting to see what kind of impact it has on the service if WB essentially turns that feature off next year. They will have gotten their customers accustomed to something that they aren't continuing. Obviously, they are hoping for a more normal theatrical landscape next year. But the messaging of "We'll give you The Matrix 4 at home on the same day in December, but next March you've got to leave your house and pay to see Batman" is inconsistent. I'm curious to see if people who have gotten used to the simultaneous streaming model will revert to going out next year. And if so, will they keep HBO Max without the simultaneous new releases?

 

[Jeff Adkins]

The most interesting thing about this deal to me is what it stipulates for next year. Beginning in 2022, WB is guaranteeing a 45-day theatrical window for Regal to show their movies. This means, of course, that the other chains will expect the same thing.

45 days is half of the previously-standard 90 days, but it's still more than WB is doing right now.

I know that WB said this hybrid release plan was only for 2021, but I was skeptical that they plan to drop it. Same-day theatrical titles is now a calling card for HBO Max, and it will be interesting to see what kind of impact it has on the service if WB essentially turns that feature off next year. They will have gotten their customers accustomed to something that they aren't continuing. Obviously, they are hoping for a more normal theatrical landscape next year. But the messaging of "We'll give you The Matrix 4 at home on the same day in December, but next March you've got to leave your house and pay to see Batman" is inconsistent. I'm curious to see if people who have gotten used to the simultaneous streaming model will revert to going out next year. And if so, will they keep HBO Max without the simultaneous new releases?

It's going to be interesting to watch. The reason I didn't think the same day releases would continue next year is because of the huge backlash they received after announcing that for 2021. You had directors and actors threatening to leave, and content providers like Legendary were clearly pissed off. Besides that, it would seem like the economic benefits of the 45-day window will outweigh the subscriber loss. It made sense to do the same-day releases at the time, but I don't see how that could be economically sustained going forward.

It'll be interesting to see how many people will unsubscribe based on this. I'm guessing not that many, but maybe I'm wrong. What worries me more than anything is that this will speed up the demise of physical media. Physical media releases have seemed to hold their 90-day window throughout. If we get to where 45 days becomes the norm, this will have an effect on Blu-Ray/DVD sales.

I'm also going to be curious as to what windows will be like at the other studios next year. I don't see Universal hanging on to that 17-day window if they want Spielberg to keep giving them product. Indications are that Kevin Feige wants to preserve the theatrical window for the MCU. To the best of my recollection, Sony has stuck pretty firm with theatrical, even during the peak of the pandemic. I do think the smaller, independent studios will probably go to either same-day VOD, or a much shorter window than the major studios.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I don't see Universal hanging on to that 17-day window if they want Spielberg to keep giving them product.

Technically, the 17-day window is an option that Universal has, but they don't have to use it. They've also said in their deal with Cinemark that anything that opens over $50 million would have 31 days (although that's a moot point because nothing is going to open over $50 million right now.). For a Spielberg film, they could just use the normal windowing period and continue to do whatever else they want to do with their films he's not involved in. I doubt he's going to insert himself into the process of how they release their other films.

 

[Malcolm R]

They all need to settle on some standard. Setting different windows for every individual film release is just going to confuse everyone.

 

[Jeff Adkins]

Technically, the 17-day window is an option that Universal has, but they don't have to use it. They've also said in their deal with Cinemark that anything that opens over $50 million would have 31 days (although that's a moot point because nothing is going to open over $50 million right now.). For a Spielberg film, they could just use the normal windowing period and continue to do whatever else they want to do with their films he's not involved in.

Good point. I had forgotten that it wasn't a given.

I doubt he's going to insert himself into the process of how they release their other films.

Right. I only meant Spielberg/Amblin films. Stuff like the Jurassic World films.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Right. I only meant Spielberg/Amblin films. Stuff like the Jurassic World films.

I think Universal will leave something the size of Jurassic alone theatrically as long as it is doing really well. I figured that was why they moved it to 2022 a while ago. They're not going to mess with something that can make huge amounts of money. Most of the Ifilms they have released with the 17-day model are cheaper and thus don't need to make that kind of money to be successful.

 

[Tino]

'Godzilla vs Kong' Explodes to $121.8 Million Opening at Overseas Box Office - TheWrap

King Kong's clash with the King of Kaiju is performing as well as his last film, "Kong: Skull Island," in 2017

www.thewrap.com

 

[Tino]

Nobody$6,700,000-2,460-$2,723$6,700,0001Universal Pictures21Raya and the Last Dragon$3,500,000-31.8%2,212-49$1,582$28,389,8574Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures3-Tom and Jerry$2,500,000-34.2%2,464-44$1,014$37,100,0005Warner Bros.43Chaos Walking$1,185,000-38.4%2,036-96$582$11,468,2564Lionsgate54The Courier$1,043,560-44.7%1,641+208$635$3,481,2672Roadside Attractions65The Croods: A New Age$540,000-13.7%1,319-92$409$55,972,93318Universal Pictures77The Marksman$375,000-19.9%851-151$440$14,796,10911Open Road Films (II)86Boogie$340,000-42.9%1,028-156$330$3,806,8404Focus Features9-Minari$275,000-10.1%912+126$301$1,671,7237A2410-Wonder Woman 1984$245,000-46.7%1,128-30$217$45,857,00014Warner Bros.1110The Father$164,801-47%652-281$252$1,231,2955Sony Pictures Classics12-The Little Things$140,000-58.8%1,001-129$139$14,912,0009Warner Bros.1315Promising Young Woman$130,000-32.9%733-98$177$5,938,91514Focus Features1422News of the World$120,000+55.9%620-78$193$12,566,35514Universal Pictures1512City of Lies$118,148-58.5%443-58$266$500,3782Saban Films16-Judas and the Black Messiah$105,000-58%842-109$124$5,195,0007Warner Bros.17-Nomadland$100,000-59%500-150$200$2,143,0006Searchlight Pictures1819Wrong Turn$91,517-16.4%133-4$688$944,4039Saban Films1916Monster Hunter$82,000-46.4%215-97$381$14,961,02515Screen Gems2017The War with Grandpa$74,473-33.4%338-75$220$21,000,99525101 Studi

 

[Tino]

.

 

[Tino]

		Movie	Distr	Gross	%LW	Thr	Thr Chng	Per Thr	Total Gross	W
1	N	Nobody	Universal	$6,700,000		2,460		$2,724	$6,700,000	1
2	(1)	Raya and the Last Dragon	Walt Disney	$3,500,000	-32%	2,212	-49	$1,582	$28,389,857	4
3	(2)	Tom and Jerry	Warner Bros.	$2,510,000	-35%	2,464	-44	$1,019	$37,067,000	5
4	(3)	Chaos Walking	Lionsgate	$1,185,000	-38%	2,036	-96	$582	$11,468,256	4
5	(4)	The Courier	Roadside …	$1,040,000	-45%	1,641	+208	$634	$3,477,707	2
6	(5)	The Croods: A New Age	Universal	$540,000	-14%	1,319	-92	$409	$55,972,933	18
7	(7)	The Marksman	Open Road	$375,000	-20%	851	-254	$441	$14,796,109	11
8	(6)	Boogie	Focus Fea…	$340,000	-43%	1,028	-156	$331	$3,806,840	4
9	(-)	Minari	A24	$275,000	-10%	912	+126	$302	$1,840,000	16
10	(8)	Wonder Woman 1984	Warner Bros.	$245,000	-47%	1,128	-30	$217	$45,857,000	14
11	(10)	The Father	Sony Pict…	$164,800	-47%	652	-281	$253	$1,231,294	3
-	(9)	The Little Things	Warner Bros.	$140,000	-59%	1,001	-129	$140	$14,912,000	9

 

[Jake Lipson]

In its 16th week in release and a month after its physical media release, this is the first time that The Croods: A New Age has fallen out of the top five.

The continued performance of that film has been remarkable. Its $55 million gross is only $2 million and change behind Tenet. If it keeps going in the lower half of the top ten for a while, it is possible that New Age could ultimately outgross Tenet as the biggest film domestically of the pandemic. Who would have predicted that? Even if it does fall short of that record, its success is noteworthy and significant.

Also, it is worth noting that Tom and Jerry cycled off of HBO Max this morning. Going forward, it will be a theatrical exclusive for the next month.