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2019 At The Box Office

Discussion in 'Movies' started by Tino, Dec 23, 2018.

  1. Tino

    Tino Executive Producer
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    Analysis from www.boxofficeguru.com.


    THIS WEEKEND Peter Parker took his usual position atop the box office as Sony's super hero sequel Spider-Man: Far From Home opened at number one with an estimated $93.6M over the Friday-to-Sunday frame and a stellar $185.1M total over six days since its launch on Tuesday. The Independence Day holiday on Thursday allowed for an extended play period and the mid-week launch took advantage of the available audience.

    Far From Home is the fourth Spider-Man movie to open in the early July time period following Spider-Man 2 in 2004, The Amazing Spider-Man reboot in 2012, and the Spider-Man: Homecoming reboot in 2017 which opened a few days after the Fourth of July.

    This new installment is a key box office player as it follows the epic juggernaut Avengers: Endgame as the final installment of the current MCU phase. The next two MCU films already have their release dates for May and November of next year, and their official titles will be announced soon.

    FFH is released by Sony and this weekend averaged a strong $20,199 from 4,634 locations which is terrific, especially since the upfront fan base did their spending mid-week. Reviews have been very positive and fans have also been extremely happy with the PG-13 adventure. The road ahead looks promising during the summer weeks as the latest Spidey aims to fly past the $200M and $300M marks. The 23 films in the MCU have now grossed a combined $8.3 billion at the domestic box office over the past 11 years.

    Far From Home opened in most of the world this weekend and along with a few early debuts last week like in China, its overseas total has risen to a stunning $395M for a global gross to date of $580M. China leads with $167.4M in ten days and Korea opened to $33.8M over six days. The Mysterio flick hopes to become 2019's next billion dollar blockbuster.

    Two-time champ Toy Story 4 stepped back into second place but still rocked the global box office. The Pixar hit dropped 43% to an estimated $34.3M domestically lifting the cume to a sturdy $306.6M becoming the sixth film from the animation studio to cross the triple-century mark. Overseas business rose to $343.4M pushing the global tally to a healthy $650M on its way to north of $800M and possibly even surpassing $900M with Japan and Germany still to open.

    Danny Boyle's new film Yesterday held steady in the number three spot in its second weekend dipping only 37% to an estimated $10.8M putting Universal at a solid $36.9M after ten days.

    Horror pic Annabelle Comes Home followed with an estimated $9.8M falling 52% in its sophomore frame. Warner Bros. has taken in $50.2M over 12 days which is solid for a low-budget thriller, but still below the levels of the previous Annabelle films at the same point. Global on Home is now $134.8M.

    The acclaimed horror movie Midsommar got a very wide release with A24 going out in 2,707 locations and the opening weekend delivered an estimated $6.6M for a mild $2,424 average. The R-rated thriller opened mid-week starting with Tuesday night pre-shows and banked $10.9M total through Sunday with many moviegoers coming out upfront. But critics and audiences were split on their thoughts on this one. Reviews were very strong, but paying ticket buyers were mixed on it with shaky audience scores and a C+ grade from CinemaScore which is decent but not great for a fright flick.

    Continuing to hold well this summer and flying past more milestones was Disney's latest live-action remake Aladdin which grossed an estimated $7.6M slipping just 25% in its seventh frame. The domestic cume has joined the triple century club at $320.8M while the global tally, with a stellar $600.9M from international markets, has surged past the $900M mark at $921.7M. The Agrabah tale looks to surpass the $967M final of Jungle Book soon and might become a billion dollar player.
     
  2. Jake Lipson

    Jake Lipson Lead Actor

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    I think that depends on how much its legs are cut off by the arrival of The Lion King. If The Lion King were not approaching so quickly, Aladdin would be a lot likelier to hang around and get there, but The Lion King is coming, so we'll see what happens.
     
  3. Jake Lipson

    Jake Lipson Lead Actor

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  4. steve jaros

    steve jaros Supporting Actor

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    I recall three years ago when the Jungle Book petered out in the $900s, it could not quite ring the $1B bell even though IMO it richly deserved it.

    Hope the same fate does not befall Aladdin.
     
  5. Tino

    Tino Executive Producer
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    Top 20 boxofficemojo

    1 1 Spider-Man: Far from Home Sony $45,300,000 -51.1% 4,634 - $9,776 $274,529,305 $160 2
    2 2 Toy Story 4 BV $20,665,000 -39.0% 4,210 -330 $4,909 $346,369,574 - 4
    3 N Crawl Par. $12,000,000 - 3,170 - $3,785 $12,000,000 $13.5 1
    4 N Stuber Fox $8,043,000 - 3,050 - $2,637 $8,043,000 - 1
    5 3 Yesterday Uni. $6,750,000 -32.9% 2,755 +141 $2,450 $48,316,525 $26 3
    6 5 Aladdin (2019) BV $5,873,000 -21.9% 2,557 -201 $2,297 $331,489,720 $183 8
    7 4 Annabelle Comes Home WB (NL) $5,550,000 -41.3% 3,209 -404 $1,730 $60,760,434 - 3
    8 6 Midsommar A24 $3,551,571 -45.9% 2,707 - $1,312 $18,406,842 - 2
    9 7 The Secret Life of Pets 2 Uni. $3,100,000 -33.7% 2,320 -526 $1,336 $147,137,185 $80 6
    10 8 Men in Black International Sony $2,215,000 -41.4% 1,612 -1,104 $1,374 $76,483,597 $110 5
    11 10 Rocketman Par. $1,700,000 -34.9% 1,332 -77 $1,276 $91,974,910 $40 7
    12 9 Avengers: Endgame BV $1,692,000 -45.7% 1,443 -542 $1,173 $851,200,139 $356 12
    13 11 John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum LG/S $1,375,000 -35.4% 1,145 -348 $1,201 $167,538,716 - 9
    14 12 Child's Play (2019) UAR $561,861 -62.4% 807 -900 $696 $28,287,378 $10 4
    15 18 The Last Black Man in San Francisco A24 $361,613 -16.2% 207 +19 $1,747 $3,336,797 - 6
    16 N The Farewell A24 $351,330 - 4 - $87,833 $351,330 - 1
    17 - Unplanned PFR $345,000 - 49 - $7,041 $18,453,952 $6 15
    18 15 Late Night Amazon $334,642 -40.2% 330 -63 $1,014 $14,806,837 - 6
    19 22 Wild Rose Neon $294,000 +40.4% 161 +98 $1,826 $751,911 - 4
    20 16 Pavarotti CBS $255,000 -44.3% 196 -54 $1,301 $3,572,561 - 6

    Great hold for Spidey.

    Aladdin exhibiting great legs too
     
  6. David Norman

    David Norman Producer

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    Well, it appears the Endgame end of July 4th tweak and expansion means it will pass (unadjusted) Avatar possibly around the same day/weekend right before it releases on Digital making for a pretty cool advertising gimmick. 2.781B estimated Mojo numbers assuming they didn't mess it up again. 7M in 2 weeks seems to be just about a given

    #2 Domestic
    #2 International
    #1 Overall
     
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  7. steve jaros

    steve jaros Supporting Actor

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    Looks like Aladdin WILL ring the $1B WW bell. Hooray!
     
  8. Tino

    Tino Executive Producer
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    With 50% weekly drops it’s not such a given to do it in two weeks.

    But at this point Disney would be foolish to remove it from theaters. It will hang around in theaters even after it makes its home video debut as long as it takes to claim that title from Avatar.
     
  9. Message #749 of 859 Jul 14, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2019
    Jake Lipson

    Jake Lipson Lead Actor

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    It will be interesting to see how much the arrival of The Lion King, which obviously is aimed squarely at the same audience, will impact it. I doubt even Disney was expecting it to be this strong at this point in its run.

    Around here, it's still playing on one dedicated screen at my big theater (and has never left, so the re-expansion didn't bring it back there so much as just add the extra footage.) Some people are still going to see it. I went to see Spider-Man today and the guy in line in front of me bought one for Avengers. It hasn't even hit the second-run dollar theaters yet. I think it will crawl there, slowly, like Black Panther crawled to $700 million and then stopped. The Blu-ray release will certainly slow things down, and they'd hit it faster if they delayed the Blu by a couple months, but they'll get it there regardless eventually. It's going to be close though; by the time the record is broken, it's not going to be ahead by a huge amount before it closes. They'll do it and then stop shortly thereafter.
     
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  10. Adam Lenhardt

    Adam Lenhardt Director

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    Seeming increasingly likely that it will creep over the $400 million mark.
     
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  11. Malcolm R

    Malcolm R Executive Producer

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    Pretty good legs for Annabelle Comes Home, too. After a slower start of $20M, it's now at nearly $61M (a multiplier of 3X already). Still likely to be the lowest domestic gross of the franchise, but not by too much.

    Also at $173.5M worldwide so far, with a number of markets yet to open.
     
  12. Colin Jacobson

    Colin Jacobson Lead Actor

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    Thing that makes less sense to me:

    Disney owns Fox.

    Fox produced "Avatar".

    Fox is producing the "Avatar" sequels.

    So essentially Disney is producing the "Avatar" sequels.

    Wouldn't they like to be able to say "sequel to the highest-grossing film of all-time" when "A2" hits in... whenever?

    Seems to me that's more valuable than some bragging right about "Endgame"...
     
  13. Wayne_j

    Wayne_j Cinematographer

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    So then they re-release Avatar before the sequel to retake the title so they can promote the sequel to the #1 film of all time.
     
  14. Colin Jacobson

    Colin Jacobson Lead Actor

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    Depends on how big the margin of "victory" for "Endgame" becomes. I can't imagine an "Avatar" theatrical re-release would do much business, though I guess it could sell decent tickets if it concentrated on IMAX 3D or if they tossed in some gimmick.

    I guess an "Avatar" reissue in 2020 - or whenever "A2" actually comes out - could muster $1 million or $2 million. Given how little it appears "Endgame" might make above the "Avatar" gross, it probably wouldn't take a lot of money to regain #1...
     
  15. Jake Lipson

    Jake Lipson Lead Actor

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    I think Endgame being #1 would mean more to people who work specifically for Marvel Studios than to their Disney superiors, which probably doesn't really care which of its properties is the biggest one as long as they're all huge.

    But I have the feeling that the Avatar sequels are going to underperform. If that's the case, it might actually be helpful to not be the #1 movie of all time then, because the headline wouldn't be "Sequel to #1 film of all time underperforms." Of course, it's been foolhardy to underestimate James Cameron in the past, so who knows? I personally just haven't felt like Avatar is something lots of people want more of, but I wouldn't automatically count him out, either.

    But you're also right that if Avatar wants it back, they could probably get it with a 3D/IMAX re-release before the second film, if Endgame just squeaks by it.
     
  16. Sean Bryan

    Sean Bryan Sean Bryan

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    Disney bought Marvel pretty early on in the MCU’s run. They helped cultivate the studio and the movies into the mega success they are today.

    Avengers: Endgame is a project that Disney was involved with making. So I would think that the “prestige” of being the #1 film of all time would feel more earned attached to Endgame than attached to something that they just bought.
     
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  17. Message #757 of 859 Jul 15, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2019
    Jake Lipson

    Jake Lipson Lead Actor

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    The Lion King is obviously going to open #1 next weekend. If it somehow didn't, heads would roll at Disney as they tried to figure out what went wrong.

    Let's assume for a moment for the sake of this discussion that Spider-Man lands at #2 for next weekend, which seems likely since there is no second new wide release to compete with Lion King.

    As far as I know, that would be the first time in box office history that one person has been involved in both the #1 and #2 movies simultaneously in different capacities.

    When Endgame opened, Captain Marvell was #2, but the overlapping personnel on those movies are doing the same thing; they're the actors playing the same roles across the two films. Back in October, Venom and A Star is Born opened #1 and #2, respectively, and shared the same cinematographer. But again, that was one person doing the same job for both films.

    In this case, though, Jon Favreau is the director of The Lion King and he is an actor in Spider-Man (as Happy.)

    If that has ever happened before where one person had two different jobs on the top two films, I don't know about it. I could be uninformed and there could be another time when this happened, but I'm racking my brain to think of other times when it was possible and nothing is coming to mind. So this could, potentially, be a very interesting box office first, if everything plays out as is expected.
     
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  18. Jake Lipson

    Jake Lipson Lead Actor

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  19. Joe Wong

    Joe Wong Supporting Actor

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    From BoxOfficeMojo:

    SATURDAY AM UPDATE: With an estimated $78.5 million on Friday, Disney's The Lion King is on its way to a three-day performance around $190 million if not higher. On top of that, audiences appear to be enjoying what they're seeing, giving the film an "A" CinemaScore in contrast to the mixed-to-negative reviews from film critics.

    Internationally, The Lion King opened in several additional markets, including UK, Spain and Mexico, taking the full total to 52 material markets to date with an international cume that now stands at $192 million. This overall gross includes $81 million in China, where the film opened last Friday.
     
  20. Lord Dalek

    Lord Dalek Producer

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