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2019 At The Box Office

Discussion in 'Movies' started by Tino, Dec 23, 2018.

  1. TravisR

    TravisR Studio Mogul

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    Unless the world blows up on Thursday, you can count on Toy Story 4 being a huge hit next weekend. :)


    Yeah, I think the best an actor in a franchise can do now is to get a smaller movie more recognition than it would have otherwise had. Like Natalie Portman and Oscar Isaac being in Annihilation. It still made no money but it wouldn't have even gotten a theatrical release without them.
     
  2. Adam Lenhardt

    Adam Lenhardt Director

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    Amazing Spider-Man 2 actually "only" dropped 61.2 percent from its opening weekend; Dark Phoenix dropped a staggering 72.6 percent. And its opening weekend was near three times higher ($91.6 million versus $32.8 million for Dark Phoenix).
     
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  3. Josh Steinberg

    Josh Steinberg Executive Producer
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    Oh wow, I always remember ASM2 as having a more massive drop but Dark Phoenix clearly takes the cake.

    For reasons passing understanding, Kinberg continues to be given jobs shepherding material that he seemingly holds in little regard. He’s taken two bites out of this particular apple but still doesn’t seem to understand what the story is meant to be or why it resonated with fans in the comics. The best part of the movie is returning veterans in the cast, but they seem so completely uninspired. It’s so sad that they’ve gone from the outstanding First Class to this in less than a decade.
     
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  4. Bryan^H

    Bryan^H Producer

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    So with Godzilla looking like it is barely going to break even, where does this leave the King Kong/Godzilla film? Will it be cancelled?
     
  5. Message #645 of 759 Jun 16, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2019
    Jake Lipson

    Jake Lipson Lead Actor

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    Kinberg was given this particular job on Dark Phoenix because Jennifer Lawrence said that she would not return for a fourth movie without him directing it. So did some of the other cast. This was confirmed in articles a few weeks ago. I'm pretty sure the cast had a three-picture deal covering First Class, Days of Future Past and Apocalypse, so they had all the power in negotiating with Fox for another film.

    Box Office Mojo's chart of the largest drops is here. Apparently the "winner" is something called Collide, which fell -88.5% after being released in February 2017. I've never heard of that.

    https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/drops.htm

    As far as Hemsworth's drawing power is concerned: Endgame is still in 1,450 theaters. If I wanted to see Hemsworth and Thompson in theaters this weekend, I would have chosen to go back for another viewing of Endgame rather than a half-baked Men in Black that no one asked for and critics didn't like. I saw three other movies over the last three days so I didn't have time for Endgame too, but there's nothing much about the MIB package that's very appealing. I like Hemsworth and Thompson, but MIB just looks bland. That's not entirely their fault as they appear to be doing what they can with the material they were given, based on the trailers. Although you're also still right that he's not really able to open a movie outside of playing Thor; Bad Times at the El Royale had great reviews last year and he had a major role as the antagonist in that movie and it didn't take either with a $17 million total gross.

    Godzilla vs. Kong is on the schedule for next March. I think it's already been shot or partially shot, although I can't tell you where I read that so I might be wrong. It might be too late to cancel it, but I'd be very worried about it if I were Legendary and WB.

    This weekend last year was used to launch Incredibles 2. Inside Out, Finding Dory, and Cars 3 also launched this weekend. I wonder why Disney chose to go with next weekend for Toy Story instead of this weekend? Dark Phoenix did not yet belong to Disney when they dated Toy Story, and the original release date for The Secret Life of Pets 2 was in July (I'm not sure when it was moved up.) If Disney had wanted this weekend for Toy Story, Men in Black would obviously have moved. Of course, Toy Story will do great wherever they put it, so they're not sweating it being next week. But the box office overall would surely have benefited if it had been this week instead of next week.
     
  6. Malcolm R

    Malcolm R Executive Producer

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    Second worst ever for a film playing on 3500+ screens (Fifty Shades of Grey is the worst).
    As Jake says, it's already well into production if not already nearing the end of principal photography since they're planning to release it in May 2020. I doubt it'll be cancelled, but I would be kind of apprehensive to bring it out so soon after the disappointing performance of G2. I'm not sure if it's practical for them to delay the film or not since doing so invites additional negative press about the delay itself.

    Though I think Kong is a bigger worldwide draw than Godzilla, so perhaps the addition of Kong will boost that film (Skull Island beat the first Godzilla internationally by about $70m).
     
  7. Tino

    Tino Executive Producer
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    Godzilla is nowhere near breaking even

    Lifetime Grosses
    Domestic: $93,688,172 27.6%
    + Foreign: $245,800,000 72.4%
    = Worldwide: $339,488,172

    It needs about $500 million WW to break even. At this point is it very doubtful it will.

    And KKvsG is done shooting I think and is definitely not going to be cancelled and locked in to open as scheduled.

    But who knows.
     
  8. Bryan^H

    Bryan^H Producer

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    I just find this whole thing strange. I think the world is a better place for more popcorn giant monster movies, but from a studio standpoint wasn't it kind of reckless fast tracking two sequels off of The strength of two barely successful films?
     
  9. Tino

    Tino Executive Producer
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    In a nutshell. Yes.
     
  10. Malcolm R

    Malcolm R Executive Producer

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    I think they viewed the first films as the moderately successful re-introduction of known characters, and hoped the sequels might take off stronger given that those characters were received mostly favorably by audiences, similar to the performance of X-Men to X2, or Batman Begins to The Dark Knight.

    Batman Begins was not really a major success ($374m worldwide vs. budget of $150m), but they pressed on with the sequel that would feature the franchise's marquee villain, the Joker.

    I don't expect that Warner anticipated a Godzilla sequel featuring all of the franchise's marquee monsters would be a step backward at the box office. The next film will not be cancelled, but there will be a lot of stress and heartburn in the WB offices leading up to its release, wondering about its chances at the box office after the weak performance of G2.
     
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  11. Malcolm R

    Malcolm R Executive Producer

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    Well, the actual weekend numbers have MIB breaking the $30m mark at least. All of the Top 12 films were underestimated by about 3 to 8%. Must be a quirk of Father's Day. I know the weather was crappy around here, so people were looking for things to do other than the usual barbecue.
     
  12. Message #652 of 759 Jun 21, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2019
    Malcolm R

    Malcolm R Executive Producer

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    Early reports have another summer weekend falling short of expectations, albeit just a bit. Toy Story 4 is expecting a weekend gross of $135m (just short of the expected $140m), and Child's Play at $14m (short of the expected $16m).

    https://variety.com/2019/film/news/box-office-toy-story-4-opening-weekend-1203250014/

    Seems like audiences are beginning to show fatigue to the continuing onslaught of sequels and remakes (after disappointing debuts for Godzilla 2, Men in Black 4, Dark Phoenix, Shaft, and Pets 2), at least as far as pre-release estimates compared to actual results. Though a $135m start is hardly something to panic over, it seems like the TS brand should generate a stronger opening.
     
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  13. Jake Lipson

    Jake Lipson Lead Actor

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    If the $135 million estimate holds, Toy Story's opening would be almost identical in raw dollars to Finding Dory, which went on to gross $486 million domestically. It's also higher in raw dollars than the $110 million opening of Toy Story 3 in 2010. The only animated film ever to open higher was Incredibles 2 at $182 million last year, and I think it was an outlier. Incredibles had a lot of pent-up demand which just isn't there for Toy Story because, as beloved as Toy Story is, there has been a lot more Toy Story content. Also, Incredibles 2 also doubled as a superhero movie (that happened to be animated) and performed in line with what the top-tier superhero movies do. Toy Story is many things, but a superhero film is not one of them. I don't think Disney will be upset with this opening at all. The only two movies this year to open higher are Endgame and Captain Marvel.
     
  14. benbess

    benbess Producer

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    Late Night
    Domestic Total as of Jun. 20, 2019:$8,088,979
    Distributor: Amazon Studios Release Date: June 7, 2019
    Genre: Comedy / Drama Runtime: 1 hrs. 59 min.
    MPAA Rating: R Production Budget: N/A
    Total Lifetime Grosses
    Domestic: $8,088,979 86.6%
    + Foreign: $1,248,218 13.4%
    = Worldwide: $9,337,197

    Not doing well at all....
     
  15. Colin Jacobson

    Colin Jacobson Lead Actor

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    No one in their right mind thought "Late Night" would be a hit. I guess the studio figured it might find a niche audience as counter-programming amidst all the big blockbusters, but you didn't have to be Nostradamus to predict it wouldn't make money...
     
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  16. Tino

    Tino Executive Producer
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    I doubt the budget was high so who knows. It may break even.
     
  17. benbess

    benbess Producer

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    Wow, you're right. According to wikipedia $4 million—about the same budget as some hour-long TV shows these day.
     
  18. Tino

    Tino Executive Producer
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    There you go. I was gonna say it had a budget of $5 million.
     
  19. Malcolm R

    Malcolm R Executive Producer

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    Looks like BOMojo is estimating TS4's opening around $125m, which is well short of their bullish forecast of $165m and also short of Disney's $140m expectation which was already deemed conservative by many box office watchers (who were throwing around opening numbers up to $200m). Hardly a bomb, but it does seem to be flirting with disappointment territory given the sky-high early expectations. Have to see how the legs are in subsequent weeks.

    I wonder if this portends any early red flags for The Lion King?
     
  20. Tino

    Tino Executive Producer
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    I would say it does.
     

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