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2019 At The Box Office

Discussion in 'Movies' started by Tino, Dec 23, 2018.

  1. Riddles

    Riddles Auditioning

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    According to Deadline, John Wick 3 is expected to have another 55% + decline this weekend. I didn't expect it to be so frontloaded.
     
  2. Message #582 of 964 May 31, 2019
    Last edited: May 31, 2019
    Jake Lipson

    Jake Lipson Lead Actor

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    I think that comes down to the amount of competition it's facing right now. Godzilla, in particular, seems like it's going after a similar audience. I doubt Lionsgate is disappointed in its results, though.

    Good catch @Malcolm R regarding Rocketman. I'm surprised it only did $580k from the sneak preview shows. My showing was full.
     
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  3. Josh Steinberg

    Josh Steinberg Executive Producer
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    I think that’s just the reality of today’s marketplace. See it right away if you don’t want to risk spoilers, otherwise, you’ll be able to purchase it for home streaming in two months, rent it via streaming or buy it on disc in three months, or see it virtually for free on a subscription service like Netflix in four months.
     
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  4. Tino

    Tino Executive Producer
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    Godzilla coming in lower than originally predicted.

    FRIDAY 11:06PM post: Godzilla: King of the Monsters has slowed down significantly, from the $24M opening day that many were seeing midday Friday to an estimated $19.6M yesterday. This has greatly shifted the Warner Bros./Legendary movie’s opening from the previously projected $60M-$65M to just under its tracking projection of $50M with $49.5M.

    Why did this happen? Sometimes analysts see a rosy midday picture with presales, then as the evening comes, ticket sales slowdown. Some attribute the downturn in business to the pic playing young with 22% under 17. On CinemaScore, the under 18 set at 16% gave King an A-, ditto for the under 25 crowd who repped 41% of last night’s audience. Before today, Fandango saw King of the Monsters advance ticket sales ahead of Kong: Skull Island. Many were bullish.
     
  5. Robert Crawford

    Robert Crawford Moderator
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  6. Wayne_j

    Wayne_j Cinematographer

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    1 N Godzilla: King of the Monsters WB $49,025,000 - 4,108 - $11,934 $49,025,000 $170 1
    2 1 Aladdin (2019) BV $42,335,000 -53.7% 4,476 - $9,458 $185,032,174 $183 2
    3 N Rocketman Par. $25,000,000 - 3,610 - $6,925 $25,000,000 $40 1
    4 N Ma (2019) Uni. $18,260,000 - 2,808 - $6,503 $18,260,000 $5 1
    5 2 John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum LG/S $11,100,000 -54.9% 3,604 -246 $3,080 $125,752,812 - 3
    6 3 Avengers: Endgame BV $7,813,000 -54.6% 3,105 -705 $2,516 $815,501,784 $356 6
    7 4 Pokemon Detective Pikachu WB $6,665,000 -50.3% 3,147 -677 $2,118 $130,601,211 $150 4
    8 6 Booksmart UAR $3,328,648 -52.0% 2,518 +13 $1,322 $14,366,831 - 2
    9 5 Brightburn SGem $2,315,000 -70.5% 2,607 - $888 $14,212,552 $6 2
    10 8 The Hustle UAR $1,300,000 -63.7% 1,407 -970 $924 $33,195,602 - 4
     
  7. Tino

    Tino Executive Producer
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    Top 20 courtesy www.boxofficemojo.com

    1 N Godzilla: King of the Monsters WB $49,025,000 - 4,108 - $11,934 $49,025,000 $170 1
    2 1 Aladdin (2019) BV $42,335,000 -53.7% 4,476 - $9,458 $185,032,174 $183 2
    3 N Rocketman Par. $25,000,000 - 3,610 - $6,925 $25,000,000 $40 1
    4 N Ma (2019) Uni. $18,260,000 - 2,808 - $6,503 $18,260,000 $5 1
    5 2 John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum LG/S $11,100,000 -54.9% 3,604 -246 $3,080 $125,752,812 - 3
    6 3 Avengers: Endgame BV $7,813,000 -54.6% 3,105 -705 $2,516 $815,501,784 $356 6
    7 4 Pokemon Detective Pikachu WB $6,665,000 -50.3% 3,147 -677 $2,118 $130,601,211 $150 4
    8 6 Booksmart UAR $3,328,648 -52.0% 2,518 +13 $1,322 $14,366,831 - 2
    9 5 Brightburn SGem $2,315,000 -70.5% 2,607 - $888 $14,212,552 $6 2
    10 8 The Hustle UAR $1,300,000 -63.7% 1,407 -970 $924 $33,195,602 - 4
    11 7 A Dog's Journey Uni. $1,040,000 -74.9% 1,674 -1,605 $621 $18,764,470 - 3
    12 9 The Intruder (2019) SGem $810,000 -64.8% 807 -805 $1,004 $34,207,166 $8 5
    13 11 Dumbo (2019) BV $769,000 -29.0% 230 -116 $3,343 $113,754,882 $170 10
    14 15 Biggest Little Farm Neon $421,000 -19.8% 275 +94 $1,531 $1,825,163 - 4
    15 10 Long Shot LG/S $360,000 -77.6% 477 -881 $755 $29,929,693 - 5
    16 14 Uglydolls STX $200,000 -68.9% 296 -794 $676 $19,577,197 $45 5
    17 13 Poms STX $190,000 -70.9% 374 -537 $508 $13,196,166 - 4
    18 17 Captain Marvel BV $170,000 -58.4% 162 -138 $1,049 $426,181,433 - 13
    19 18 Breakthrough Fox $163,000 -57.6% 251 -300 $649 $40,301,588 $14 7
    20 25 The Souvenir A24 $138,950 -0.1% 74 +51 $1,878 $465,766 - 3

    That Godzilla gross is quite a drop from the 2014 film. Yikes.

    Pretty good hold for Aladdin too.
     
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  8. Lord Dalek

    Lord Dalek Producer

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    Godzilla:KOTM only made 4 million more than GINO did 21 years ago. Pathetic. Flop.
     
  9. Josh Steinberg

    Josh Steinberg Executive Producer
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    I can't speak for anyone else, but the 2014 film didn't do anything to make me want to buy a ticket to see a second installment. I saw the 2014 film opening night in IMAX 3D and was underwhelmed. Gave the 3D disc a try a year or two later to give it a second chance, and had the same reaction. In a perfect world with unlimited free time, I wouldn't be opposed to seeing it, but it wasn't any kind of a priority for me and I haven't had nearly as much free time this year as I've had in prior years.
     
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  10. Malcolm R

    Malcolm R Executive Producer

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    As Josh says, I don't think Godzilla 2014 was very well liked. It opened big but had a multiple of just over 2x. I don't think anyone was clamoring for a sequel. They'll be hoping for bigger international numbers for this one.
     
  11. Tino

    Tino Executive Producer
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    Pretty much agree.
     
  12. Message #592 of 964 Jun 2, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2019
    Tino

    Tino Executive Producer
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    Where it’s not doing too well either.

    Deadline
    SUNDAY UPDATE, Refresh for latest…: Warner Bros/Legendary’s Godzilla: King Of The Monstershas come in with a $130M opening weekend launch at the international box office. As we noted yesterday, this is far lower than what the industry was seeing ahead of the debut. The continuation of Legendary’s modern monster series is the No. 1 movie overseas, but the King’s bow is not royal. The 2014 Godzilla opened to $140M in like-for-like markets (unadjusted) and that brings up a host of questions.

    Some had this one at potentially upwards of $200M if the emerging markets and China had really popped; our early estimate, based on a combination of industry sources, was $170M-$190M before we downgraded to $150M and then $130M yesterday. The growing SE Asia hubs certainly performed the best, and I hear WB is happy with those. China led, but while it looked critic-proof at the beginning with a 9 on Maoyan, the social scores dropped throughout the weekend and that figure is now an 8.5. The full weekend estimate there is $70M, the low end of the pre-opening range.
     
  13. benbess

    benbess Producer

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    Aladdin (2019)
    Domestic Total as of Jun. 2, 2019: $185,032,174 (Estimate)
    Distributor: Buena Vista Release Date: May 24, 2019
    Genre: Fantasy Runtime: 2 hrs. 8 min.
    MPAA Rating: PG Production Budget: $183 million
    Total Lifetime Grosses
    Domestic: $185,032,174 41.5%
    + Foreign: $260,900,000 58.5%
    = Worldwide: $445,932,174

    Close to break even?
     
  14. Message #594 of 964 Jun 2, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2019
    Tino

    Tino Executive Producer
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    Godzilla need about $500 million WW to break even.

    Gonna be tough.

    Hard as it is to believe, Roland Emmerich’s 1998 version of Godzilla is the most successful after adjusting for inflation.

    Godzilla 2014

    Total Lifetime Grosses
    Domestic: $200,676,069 37.9%
    + Foreign: $328,400,000 62.1%
    = Worldwide: $529,076,069
    Domestic Summary
    Opening Weekend: $93,188,384
    (#1 rank, 3,952 theaters, $23,580 average)

    With a $160 million budget that’s a $480 million break even so about $50 million profit.


    Godzilla 1998
    Total Lifetime Grosses
    Domestic: $136,314,294 36.0%
    + Foreign: $242,700,000 64.0%
    = Worldwide: $379,014,294
    Domestic Summary
    Opening Weekend: $44,047,541
    (#1 rank, 3,310 theaters, $13,307

    With an approximate 2x breakeven in 1998 and a Budget Of $130 million, Godzilla was over $100 million in the Black in 1998 dollars.

    $379,000,000 in 1998 →$594,188,294.48 in 2019
     
  15. Tino

    Tino Executive Producer
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    Another $100 million or so world wide.
     
  16. steve jaros

    steve jaros Supporting Actor

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    Big disappointment for Godzilla .... Big success for Aladdin.

    Mojo says Aladdin actually beat Godzilla today (Sunday).

    This is one WB tent-pole that has collapsed quickly in the wind.

    Sheesh!
     
  17. Jake Lipson

    Jake Lipson Lead Actor

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    To be totally fair, the Sunday numbers are currently estimates, and the order could change when final numbers come in tomorrow if one or both has been overestimated or understimated by their respective studios. We'll see. But either way, yeah, WB obviously wanted more out of Godzilla than they got.

    These numbers should make WB very nervous not only for this film going forward, but also since they have Godzilla vs. Kong on the calendar for ten months from now.
     
  18. steve jaros

    steve jaros Supporting Actor

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    Curious - why do you say a 2x breakeven for 1998 film but a 3x breakeven for today's film?

    My recollection of Godzilla 1998 was that it was a box office disappointment and that planned sequels were shelved. Why would they do that if it made over $100m profit?

    These are real questions, you seem to know a lot about this.
     
  19. Tino

    Tino Executive Producer
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    Today’s films are more extensively and expensively promoted than films were 21 years ago. Today’s films require 2-3x multipliers to breakeven depending on the size of the film.

    Godzilla was a disappointment in 1998. That doesn’t mean it didn’t make money. Obviously not enough for the studio to green light a sequel.

    And it’s obviously not an exact science since studios are always reluctant to release financial information on their films.
     
  20. Tino

    Tino Executive Producer
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    And also my conclusions are based somewhat on speculation due to the absence of concrete numbers, so by no means am I saying that I am 100% accurate.

    These are merely my observations and opinions based on available data.
     
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