2019 At The Box Office (1 Viewer)

[Tino]

You’re right Robert.

Pointless indeed.

 

[Robert Crawford]

You’re right Robert.

Pointless indeed.

I'm sure it will go in-development at some time before the year is out, but there is a lot to be known before I would want to debate the box office of the sequel versus the first film. But hey, that's me.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

Title Year Gross (North America) Title (original) Year (original) Original's gross (North America) Improvement
The Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day 2009 $10,273,188[1] The Boondock Saints 1999 $30,471[2] 33,714%
Desperado 1995 $25,405,445[3] El Mariachi 1992 $2,040,920[3] 1,170%
Clerks II 2006 $24,148,068[4] Clerks 1994 $3,151,130[5] 677%
The Color of Money 1986 $52,293,982[6] The Hustler 1961 $7,600,000[7] 588%
Terminator 2: Judgment Day 1991 $204,843,345[8] The Terminator 1984 $38,371,200[8] 434%
Tron: Legacy 2010 $172,062,763[9] Tron 1982 $33,000,000[10] 421%
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 2017 $404,515,480[11] Jumanji 1995 $100,475,249[12] 302%
Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me 1999 $206,040,086[13] Austin Powers: International Man of Mystery 1997 $53,883,989[13] 282%
Rambo: First Blood Part II 1985 $150,415,432[14] First Blood 1982 $42,754,105[14] 252%
Incredibles 2 2018 $608,581,744 The Incredibles 2004 $261,441,092 230%
Baahubali 2: The Conclusion 2017 $20,186,659 Baahubali: The Beginning 2015 $6,738,000 200%
Pitch Perfect 2 2015 $183,532,105[15] Pitch Perfect 2012 $65,001,093[15] 183%
Blade Runner 2049 2017 $92,054,159[16] Blade Runner 1982 $32,868,943[17] 180%
Mad Max 2 1981 $23,667,907[18] Mad Max 1979 $8,750,000[18] 170%
Highlander II: The Quickening 1991 $15,556,340[19] Highlander 1986 $5,900,000[19] 164%
The Dark Knight 2008 $533,345,358[20] Batman Begins 2005 $205,343,774[20] 160%
Evil Dead II 1987 $5,923,044[21] The Evil Dead 1981 $2,400,000[21] 147%
Lethal Weapon 2 1989 $147,253,986[22] Lethal Weapon 1987 $65,207,127[22] 126%
Bad Boys II 2003 $138,608,444[23] Bad Boys 1995 $65,807,024[24] 110%
Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay 2008 $38,108,728[25] Harold & Kumar Go to White Castle 2004 $18,250,550[25] 109%
Next Friday 2000 $57,328,603[26] Friday 1995 $27,467,564[26] 108%
John Wick: Chapter 2 2017 $92,029,184[27] John Wick 2014 $43,037,835[28] 114%
The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water 2015 $162,994,032[29] The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie 2004 $85,417,988[29] 90%
Transporter 2 2005 $43,095,856[30] The Transporter 2002 $25,296,447[30] 70%
Meet the Fockers 2004 $279,261,160[31] Meet the Parents 2000 $166,244,045[31] 69%
Logan 2017 $226,277,068[32] The Wolverine 2013 $132,556,852[33] 71%
Shrek 2 2004 $441,226,247[34] Shrek 2001 $267,665,011[34] 65%
The Matrix Reloaded 2003 $281,576,461[35] The Matrix 1999 $171,479,930[35] 64%
Rush Hour 2 2001 $226,164,286[36] Rush Hour 1998 $141,186,864[36] 60%
Saw II 2005 $87,039,965[37] Saw 2004 $55,185,045[37] 58%
Insidious: Chapter 2 2013 $83,586,447[38] Insidious 2010 $54,009,150[38] 55%
From Russia with Love 1963 $24,796,765[39] Dr. No 1962 $16,067,035[39] 54%
The Twilight Saga: New Moon 2009 $296,623,634[40] Twilight 2008 $192,769,854[40] 54%
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues 2013 $127,352,707[41] Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy 2004 $85,288,303[42] 50%
Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls 1995 $108,385,533[43] Ace Ventura: Pet Detective 1994 $72,217,396[44] 50%
Captain America: The Winter Soldier 2014 $259,766,572[45] Captain America: The First Avenger 2011 $176,654,505[45] 47%
The Chronicles of Riddick 2004 $57,761,012[46] Pitch Black 2000 $39,240,659[46] 47%
Despicable Me 2 2013 $368,061,265[47] Despicable Me 2010 $251,513,985[47] 46%
The Bourne Supremacy 2004 $176,241,941[48] The Bourne Identity 2002 $121,661,683[48] 45%
Split 2017 $138,141,585[49] Unbreakable 2000 $94,999,143[50] 45%
Finding Dory 2016 $486,295,561[51] Finding Nemo 2003 $339,714,367[52] 43%
American Pie 2 2001 $145,103,595[53] American Pie 1999 $102,561,004[53] 42%
Die Hard 2 1990 $117,540,947[54] Die Hard 1988 $83,008,852[54] 42%
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest 2006 $423,315,812[55] Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl 2003 $305,413,918[55] 39%
22 Jump Street 2014 $191,719,337[56] 21 Jump Street 2012 $138,447,667[57] 38%
X2 2003 $214,949,694[58] X-Men 2000 $157,299,717[58] 37%
For a Few Dollars More 1965 $15,000,000[59] A Fistful of Dollars 1964 $11,000,000[60] 36%
The Devil's Rejects 2005 $17,044,981[61] House of 1000 Corpses 2003 $12,634,962[62] 35%
The Mummy Returns 2001 $202,019,785[63] The Mummy 1999 $155,385,488[63] 30%
Toy Story 2 1999 $245,823,397[64] Toy Story 1995 $191,796,233[64] 28%
Hellboy II: The Golden Army 2008 $75,986,503[65] Hellboy 2004 $59,623,958[65] 27%
The Karate Kid Part II 1986 $115,103,979[66] The Karate Kid 1984 $90,815,558[66] 27%
Hannibal 2001 $165,092,056[67] The Silence of the Lambs 1991 $130,742,922[67] 26%
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen 2009 $402,111,870[68] Transformers 2007 $319,246,193[68] 26%
Madea's Family Reunion 2006 $63,257,940[69] Diary of a Mad Black Woman 2005 $50,633,099[69] 25%
Resident Evil: Apocalypse 2004 $51,201,453[70] Resident Evil 2002 $40,119,709[70] 25%
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps 2010 $52,474,616[71] Wall Street 1987 $43,848,069[72] 20%
Ernest Saves Christmas 1988 $28,202,109[73] Ernest Goes to Camp 1987 $23,509,382[73] 20%
Underworld: Evolution 2006 $62,318,875[74] Underworld 2003 $51,970,690[74] 20%
Mission: Impossible 2 2000 $215,409,889[75] Mission: Impossible 1996 $180,981,886[75] 19%
A Nightmare on Elm Street 2: Freddy's Revenge 1985 $29,999,213[76] A Nightmare on Elm Street 1984 $25,504,513[76] 18%
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 2014 $208,545,589[77] Rise of the Planet of the Apes 2011 $176,760,185[77] 18%
Blade II 2002 $82,348,319[78] Blade 1998 $70,087,718[78] 17%
Thor: The Dark World 2013 $206,362,140[79] Thor 2011 $181,030,624[79] 14%
A Shot in the Dark 1964 $12,368,234 The Pink Panther[80] 1963 $10,878,107[80] 14%
Batman v Superman: Dawn Of Justice 2016 $330,360,194[81] Man Of Steel 2013 $291,045,518[82] 13%
Jackass Number Two 2006 $72,778,712[83] Jackass: The Movie 2002 $64,255,312[83] 13%
Magnum Force 1973 $39,768,000[84] Dirty Harry 1971 $35,976,000[84] 11%
Ice Age: The Meltdown 2006 $195,321,662[85] Ice Age 2002 $176,387,405[85] 11%
The Naked Gun 2½: The Smell of Fear 1991 $86,930,411[86] The Naked Gun: From the Files of Police Squad! 1988 $78,756,177[86] 10%
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers 2002 $339,789,881[87] The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring 2001 $313,364,114[87] 8%
Aliens 1986 $85,160,248[88] Alien 1979 $78,944,891[88] 8%
Shanghai Knights 2003 $60,476,872[89] Shanghai Noon 2000 $56,937,502[90] 6%
Monsters University 2013 $268,492,764[91] Monsters, Inc. 2001 $255,873,250[91] 5%
Before Sunset 2004 $5,820,649[92] Before Sunrise 1995 $5,535,405[92] 5%
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire 2013 $424,668,047[93] The Hunger Games 2012 $408,010,692[93] 4%
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island 2012 $103,860,290[94] Journey to the Center of the Earth 2008 $101,704,370[94] 2%
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel 2009 $219,614,612[95] Alvin and the Chipmunks 2007 $217,326,974[95] 1%
Quantum of Solace 2008 $168,368,427[39] Casino Royale 2006 $167,445,960[39] 1%

So you found 22 sequels that have doubled their predecessors - though some on that list really are questionable.

It's a real stretch to compare grosses of movies that came out decades apart. "Color of Money"? "Blade Runner 2049"? "Tron: Legacy"? "Jumanji"? Stretch, Armstrong!

But hey, even if I give 'em all to you, that's still 22 movies of the 100s or 1000s of sequels.

And the vast majority of the originals weren't big hits. Exceptions: "Incredibles", "Batman Begins", "Jumanji".

So 3 of the 22 made $100m+.

Like I said, it's way easier to double the gross when the first movie didn't make much money.

And like I also said, this list spotlights how incredibly rare it is for a sequel to double the prior film's take.

I have no idea why you felt the need to include any movie that made $1 more than the prior one. I never argued it's rare for a sequel to outgross the prior movie - I acknowledged that happens.

The idea that a fairly successful movie like "Shazam" is going to double the prior film's take remains far-fetched...

 

[Colin Jacobson]

You’re right Robert.

Pointless indeed.

So because I point out facts about how rare it is for movies to double grosses, you're gonna roll your eyes and act like you're the one with data on his side?

After you already admitted you only made this prediction via your gut?

Seriously?

 

[Tino]

Give it a rest dude. Seriously. It’s my opinion. Move on.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Dwayne Johnson has been confirmed to star as Black Adam, and was an executive producer on the first film as a result of that deal. But he might be getting his own film first. Also, the writer of the first film has been hired to write the sequel. That's all we know at this point. There's no release date yet even. Perhaps WB will confirm more details at Comic-Con this summer.

For the first film, I do think the timing relative to Endgame was unfortunate, since it seems like the type of film that would build an audience over time, but in order to do that it would have to hang onto screens. Instead, it got essentially shut down after three weeks by the biggest direct competition that could be faced.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

It’s just so tough for any film to have legs these days. I don’t really think Endgame opening three weeks later makes that much of a difference here, because tentpoles like Shazam (and really, the box office as a whole) are basically now designed to collect the vast majority of their grosses in the first couple weeks and then to move the film on to secondary distribution platforms like streaming and physical media while the theatrical ad campaign is still fresh in the public’s mind.

With the way the box office works in 2019, there’s no plausible scenario where a movie like Shazam can expand its audience weeks after its release.

The last films to have legs at the box office were Jumanji and Greatest Showman in late 2017/early 2018. That feat is going to get harder and harder to repeat.

I think we’re rapidly approaching a period where the only way to get people into a theater immediately in huge numbers is if the film comes with a kind of built in urgency, either because it’s a sequel to something people have seen and/or because there’s a (not unfounded) belief that if you don’t see the movie right away, it’ll be spoiled for you. Something like Shazam doesn’t quite fit into either of those boxes. It’s a known comic book character but the character is new to the screen. And because if that, there’s nothing really to spoil - it doesn’t have the cultural resonance where an unavoidable clickbait headline will ruin your ability to enjoy the movie.

The average moviegoer also can look at Shazam and decide whether or not to see it and make that decision knowing that they will likely be able to purchase it for streaming at home in two months for less than the price of two movie tickets, can rent it at home in three months for $5, or see it virtually for free at home in four months on one of the streaming subscriptions they likely already have.

Whereas positive word of mouth propelled Greatest Showman and Jumanji to greater theatrical grosses, I think we’ll see more instances going forward where the positive word of mouth encourages people to stream it two or three months later, but not necessarily to see it in a theater.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Whereas positive word of mouth propelled Greatest Showman and Jumanji to greater theatrical grosses, I think we’ll see more instances going forward where the positive word of mouth encourages people to stream it two or three months later, but not necessarily to see it in a theater.

If that's the case, then that is essentially the end of the theatrical business model for anything that's not a mega-brand like Marvel or Star Wars, and that would be very sad indeed.

 

[Mysto]

If that's the case, then that is essentially the end of the theatrical business model for anything that's not a mega-brand like Marvel or Star Wars, andthat would be very sad indeed.

I really can't predict the future but the theatrical business model has been changing for some time. Moderate cost, smaller movies, have been moving toward direct to home viewing.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

If that's the case, then that is essentially the end of the theatrical business model for anything that's not a mega-brand like Marvel or Star Wars, and that would be very sad indeed.

I don’t say this as an endorsement of said trend, but I think that’s where it’s going.

And I question whether movie theaters can survive as a business if there are only half a dozen giant opening movies spaced fairly close together each year and then ten months of nothing. Rents are going to be hard to pay, salaries are going to be hard to pay. And ultimately, there’s no other method of distribution that offers studios the financial rewards of theatrical releases, so if theaters go, the business will be changed in unfathomable ways.

It’s a matter of public record that AMC theaters sell an average of 93 tickets per screen per day. That’s just not sustainable. NYC has lost an alarming number of screens over the past ten years. NYC has also seen theatrical capacity decreasing as theaters rush to convert standard seating auditoriums to larger recliner chairs that reduce overall capacity by as much as two-thirds. I’ve noticed this happening in the suburbs of Long Island, New Jersey and upstate New York as well.

The current plan seems to be to offer more luxurious amenities and higher priced tickets for the shrinking audience that remains, rather than trying to reinvigorate moviegoing.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Charting With Dan for this week:



and also, Screen Junkies did their annual summer box office preview and predictions this weekend:

 

[Colin Jacobson]

Dwayne Johnson has been confirmed to star as Black Adam, and was an executive producer on the first film as a result of that deal. But he might be getting his own film first. Also, the writer of the first film has been hired to write the sequel. That's all we know at this point. There's no release date yet even. Perhaps WB will confirm more details at Comic-Con this summer.

For the first film, I do think the timing relative to Endgame was unfortunate, since it seems like the type of film that would build an audience over time, but in order to do that it would have to hang onto screens. Instead, it got essentially shut down after three weeks by the biggest direct competition that could be faced.

I think "Endgame" impacted "Shazam" less than you. It dropped 53% in its 2nd weekend even though it didn't have a super-huge opening.

It held better in weekend 3 before the inevitable fall off the face of the earth when "Endgame" hit.

Plopping it between "Cap Marvel" and "Endgame" might've been the worse choice, as that made it get a little lost in the shuffle.

Or maybe this was always a $140m US movie that would've done the same no matter what. Maybe it's just not a movie that was gonna reach a massive audience!

 

[Malcolm R]

So the weekend didn't end up quite as close, as the actual totals show Pikachu was over-estimated by more than $3.6 million (from BOMojo):

1 1 Avengers: Endgame BV $63,299,904 -57.1% 4,662 - $13,578 $723,745,643 $356 3
2 N Pokemon Detective Pikachu WB $54,365,242 - 4,202 - $12,938 $54,365,242 $150 1

 

[Jake Lipson]

The IMAX here (which I don't go to anymore because AMC) is dropping Endgame this week and replacing it with John Wick 3. I'm surprised, since I thought Endgame was going to hang onto those screens until Disney swapped it out with Aladdin, but I guess not. Aladdin is booked for next week, which means John Wick will get a one-week IMAX run.

So the question becomes: how many IMAX screens is Endgame losing this week, and how will that impact its weekend gross? IMAX doesn't report theater count apart from the normal theater counts reported to places like Box Office Mojo, so I'm not sure how to quantify that, but it would be interesting to now.

 

[Tino]

Look for Avengers to drop about 60% this weekend.

John Wick 3 will be number 1

 

[Josh Steinberg]

The past few years, IMAX has brought late spring/early summer blockbusters back to their screens later in the summer and early in the fall when they’ve had little going on. I would not at all be surprised to see Endgame reappear in IMAX in a few months.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I would not at all be surprised to see Endgame reappear in IMAX in a few months.

Do you think they'd do this after the home release? Disney used to re-expand the earlier summer Marvel movie again around Labor Day, but stopped doing that since about Guardians 2 when the disc release moved forward to August. I remember this because I've tried a couple times to make the Marvel movie my birthday movie (September 3, which always falls on or around Labor Day.) They've also done that with the Pixar film in the past, and may be going back to that since the Pixar title almost never comes to disc until November.

In the case of Endgame, "see the IMAX version one last time" would be a marketing hook to differentiate it from the home release, since it doesn't appear it will be included on disc.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

I don’t think a home video release would affect any potential IMAX plans. Remember that last September they screened all of the MCU movies for a week and those all had discs too.

 

[Edwin-S]

I doubt a second Shazam film will outperform the first. The first one wasn't all that impressive, other than the performance by the actor who did the teenage Billy Batson.

The story was actually kind of dumb and poorly constructed.

 

[Jake Lipson]

The first one [Shazam!] wasn't all that impressive

Your opinion of the film is completely valid, but you seem to be in the significant minority on that. Critics love it (90% on Rotten Tomatoes) and most audiences who have seen it seem to be very enthusiastic. So I do think the signs are positive that the sequel could do bigger business.