2018 At The Boxoffice (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Adkins]

This upcoming weekend last year included the gargantuan $174.75 million launch of Beauty and the Beast.

This year's crop of new releases -- Love, Simon, Tomb Raider and something I don't know much about called I Can Only Imagine -- combined would not get anywhere near that number. Of course, Black Panther will still be doing lots of business, too, but it will be in its fifth weekend so can't be expected to be enormous anymore.

So....how much lower do you all think this weekend will be over the same weekend last year? I expect the dropoff will be massive, and without being too mean-spirited about it, I can't wait to see what the number is.

They're only projecting $28 mil for Tomb Raider, but that might be enough to knock Black Panther out. It could be close.

 

[Sean Bryan]

http://variety.com/2018/film/news/avengers-infinity-war-fandango-record-1202729194/

Disney-Marvel’s “Avengers: Infinity War” has needed only six hours to break Fandango’s record for best-selling superhero movie in the first 24 hours of presales.

It’ll be interesting to see the opening weekend on this. I’m thinking it definitely beats Black Panther and probably beats The Avengers. BP will probably finish around $650M domestically, so that’s gonna be hard to top. I think it’ll depend on IW’s reception.

 

[Robert Crawford]

http://variety.com/2018/film/news/avengers-infinity-war-fandango-record-1202729194/



It’ll be interesting to see the opening weekend on this. I’m thinking it definitely beats Black Panther and probably beats The Avengers. BP will probably finish around $650M domestically, so that’s gonna be hard to top. I think it’ll depend on IW’s reception.

It better beat Black Panther, at least, that's Disney's hope.

 

[TravisR]

I'm still saying that Black Panther ends up with more money than Avengers. Simply because Avengers will be coming out at a time when there's much stiffer competition than Black Panther had.


The preceding was brought to you by the guy who thought Black Panther wouldn't do particularly well.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I would add to that: Black Panther has clearly crossed over beyond simply getting the audience that always shows up to Marvel movies. We know that the Marvel faithful will show up for Infinity War, of course, but what I think is more open is whether or not the newbies who came out for Black Panther only will also turn out for Infinity War. Black Panther is super-accessible storywise for a new audience because you don't really have to have seen any other MCU films in order to understand it. That certainly will not be the case for Infinity War, where part of the job of the movie is to tie together ten years of storytelling threads from other movies. That may be a little bit more limiting in terms of reaching out to a wider audience unacquainted with most of the MCU.

Also, Black Panther will be in Infinity War, obviously; I don't think it's an accident that both trailers have prominently featured a big sequence which is clearly set in Wakanda. However, Black Panther's role will obviously be way smaller in terms of the overall ensemble than it was in his own movie. At most, we're probably talking about something equivalent in screentime to his role in Civil War, or maybe less given the sheer size of this movie's cast So, will that be enough to get his fans to return, or will they just wait for Redbox and fast forward to his scenes?

It would be great for Marvel if some of these new Black Panther fans become new Marvel regulars going forward, but I think the answer is probably in the middle, in that some may come and some will stay away until he's headlining again. So it's kind of hard to predict where the gross will land. We'll see.

It should also be noted that despite the popularity of Wonder Woman's solo film last summer, the general public soundly rejected Justice League, even with her appearing in it and in the advertising for it. Of course, there were a lot of factors at play with Justice League that won't apply to Infinity War, like negative audience sentiment fostered from previous movies (Batman v. Superman), and I would think it's likely that the reviews will probably be kinder to Infinity War than they were to Justice League. But still I felt this was worth mentioning.

 

[Wayne_j]

Deadline's Saturday morning estimates:
1..) Black Panther (DIS), 3,834 theaters (-108) / $7.4M Fri (-26%) / 3-day: $28.5M (-30%)/Total: $606.8M/Wk 5

2..) Tomb Raider (MGM/WB), 3,854 theaters / $9M Fri (includes $2.1M of previews) /3-day: $23.5M /Wk 1

3..) A Wrinkle in Time (DIS), 3,980 theaters (0) / $4.6m Fri (55%)/3-day: $17M (-49%)/Total: $61.5M/Wk 2

4..) I Can Only Imagine (RSA/LG), 1,629 theaters / $6.2M Fri /3-day: $15.1M /Wk 1

5..) Love, Simon (FOX), 2,402 theaters / $4.6M Fri /3-day: $11.7M /Wk 1

6..) Game Night (NL/WB), 2,686 theaters (-375) / $1.7m Fri (-22%)/3-day: $6M (-24%)/Total: $54.5M/Wk 4

7..) Peter Rabbit (SONY), 2,725 theaters (-387) / $1.4M Fri (-5%) /3-day: $5.9M (-12%) /Total: $103.1M/Wk 6

8..) Strangers: Prey at Night (AVI), 2,464 theaters (0)/ $1.5M Fri (-62%) /3-day: $5.1M (-51%)/Total:$18.9M/Wk 2

9..) Red Sparrow (FOX), 2,583 theaters (-481) / $1.3m Fri (-43%)/3-day: $4.8M (-44%)/Total: $39.9M/ Wk 3

10..) Death Wish (MGM), 2,676 theaters (-206) / $954M Fri (-45%)/3-day: $3.4M (-48%)/Total: $30M/Wk 3

11..)7 Days in Entebbe (FOCUS), 838 theaters / $544k Fri /3-day: $1.8M /Wk 1

 

[Jake Lipson]

For what it's worth, when I saw Love, Simon this afternoon, it was tucked away in on of the smaller auditoriums and there were probably less than 20 people there. Because the budget was pretty modest (Deadline says $10m, Box Office Mojo says $17m), it doesn't have to be huge in order to make a profit. But it's unfortunate that something this good isn't making a bigger splash.

7 Days in Entebbie is clearly being dinged by negative reviews (22% on Rotten Tomatoes.) It's interesting that negative reviews seem to have more power to keep people away than good reviews have to bring people in. (Simon is currently at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes, and Paddington 2 only did $40 million off of 100%.)

 

[Jake Lipson]

Does anyone else see an ad for A Wrinkle in Time at the top of the forum? It says "#1 Family Movie in America," which is sort of funny to me. I know that being a PG-13 action movie, Black Panther isn't exactly targeting a family demographic, but I bet there are a lot of parents taking their kids to it anyway.

 

[Wayne_j]

Weekend estimates as provided by Boxoffice Mojo.

TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count / Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week #
1 1 Black Panther BV $27,024,000 -33.8% 3,834 -108 $7,049 $605,400,528 - 5
2 N Tomb Raider WB $23,525,000 - 3,854 - $6,104 $23,525,000 $94 1
3 N I Can Only Imagine RAtt. $17,064,640 - 1,629 - $10,476 $17,064,640 $7 1
4 2 A Wrinkle in Time BV $16,565,000 -50.0% 3,980 - $4,162 $61,059,654 - 2
5 N Love, Simon Fox $11,500,000 - 2,402 - $4,788 $11,500,000 $17 1
6 5 Game Night WB (NL) $5,570,000 -29.2% 2,686 -375 $2,074 $54,174,184 $37 4
7 6 Peter Rabbit Sony $5,200,000 -23.3% 2,725 -387 $1,908 $102,440,268 $50 6
8 3 Strangers: Prey at Night Aviron $4,810,000 -53.8% 2,464 - $1,952 $18,612,052 - 2
9 4 Red Sparrow Fox $4,450,000 -47.7% 2,583 -481 $1,723 $39,583,642 $69 3
10 7 Death Wish (2018) MGM $3,368,000 -48.8% 2,676 -206 $1,259 $29,949,685 $30 3

 

[Tino]

Looks like Wrinkle will end up with about $90 million domestic. Ouch!

Thank God for Black Panther or Disney would be screwed.

 

[Jeff Adkins]

Weekend estimates as provided by Boxoffice Mojo.

TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count / Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week #
1 1 Black Panther BV $27,024,000 -33.8% 3,834 -108 $7,049 $605,400,528 - 5
2 N Tomb Raider WB $23,525,000 - 3,854 - $6,104 $23,525,000 $94 1
3 N I Can Only Imagine RAtt. $17,064,640 - 1,629 - $10,476 $17,064,640 $7 1
4 2 A Wrinkle in Time BV $16,565,000 -50.0% 3,980 - $4,162 $61,059,654 - 2
5 N Love, Simon Fox $11,500,000 - 2,402 - $4,788 $11,500,000 $17 1
6 5 Game Night WB (NL) $5,570,000 -29.2% 2,686 -375 $2,074 $54,174,184 $37 4
7 6 Peter Rabbit Sony $5,200,000 -23.3% 2,725 -387 $1,908 $102,440,268 $50 6
8 3 Strangers: Prey at Night Aviron $4,810,000 -53.8% 2,464 - $1,952 $18,612,052 - 2
9 4 Red Sparrow Fox $4,450,000 -47.7% 2,583 -481 $1,723 $39,583,642 $69 3
10 7 Death Wish (2018) MGM $3,368,000 -48.8% 2,676 -206 $1,259 $29,949,685 $30 3

Wow, Tomb Raider came in well below the $28 million they were projecting before it opened.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

Kinda crazy that "Peter Rabbit" is the 2nd highest grossing 2018 movie in the US so far!

 

[Nigel P]

It's interesting that negative reviews seem to have more power to keep people away than good reviews have to bring people in. (Simon is currently at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes, and Paddington 2 only did $40 million off of 100%.)

I would guess it is a case of a person possibly interested in something might look at RT and think maybe not if reviews are poor, but are less likely to look up to see what is reviewing well and base their decision off that.

As for this weekend's box office.

Come at the king, you best not miss.

I think Infinity War is a tricky thing to predict. A huge opening is obviously a given, but its overall total has a number of factors that could affect things. The Russo's have made my 2 favourite MCU films, so I have confidence that the film is going to be very good. Civil War though had the weakest legs (2.28 multiplier) of the the 3 large team up movies. (Avengers at 3.0, Age of Ultron was 2.4). Was this due to not having as upbeat ending, team up movies not having quite the same novel appeal or just higher competition in subsequent weeks. I also wonder how climatic it is going to feel though with Avengers 4 to come 12 months later. They clearly moved away from the two part idea so I have no idea how the film is going to end (which is a good thing but may affect repeat business). When asked to describe in one word how people would feel at the end of Infinity War Tessa Thompson said "galvanised" which has me intrigued. Anyway just my rambling thoughts on it.

 

[Wayne_j]

Top 15 per Box Office Mojo. Including the top 15 to show what Isle of Dogs was able to do on 27 screens.
1 N Pacific Rim Uprising Uni. $28,003,000 - 3,708 - $7,552 $28,003,000 $150 1
2 1 Black Panther BV $16,658,000 -37.5% 3,370 -464 $4,943 $630,916,236 - 6
3 3 I Can Only Imagine RAtt. $13,837,495 -19.1% 2,253 +624 $6,142 $38,316,986 $7 2
4 N Sherlock Gnomes Par. $10,600,000 - 3,662 - $2,895 $10,600,000 $59 1
5 2 Tomb Raider WB $10,430,000 -55.9% 3,854 - $2,706 $41,748,108 $94 2
6 4 A Wrinkle in Time BV $8,044,000 -50.5% 3,423 -557 $2,350 $73,886,607 - 3
7 5 Love, Simon Fox $7,800,000 -33.7% 2,434 +32 $3,205 $23,695,601 $17 2
8 N Paul, Apostle of Christ Sony $5,000,000 - 1,473 - $3,394 $5,000,000 $5 1
9 6 Game Night WB (NL) $4,160,000 -25.7% 1,866 -820 $2,229 $60,813,535 $37 5
10 N Midnight Sun ORF $4,119,000 - 2,173 - $1,896 $4,119,000 - 1
11 N Unsane BST $3,858,418 - 2,023 - $1,907 $3,858,418 - 1
12 7 Peter Rabbit Sony $2,500,000 -51.9% 2,071 -654 $1,207 $106,766,715 $50 7
13 9 Red Sparrow Fox $2,240,000 -50.6% 1,482 -1,101 $1,511 $44,036,000 $69 4
14 8 Strangers: Prey at Night Aviron $2,000,000 -57.5% 1,481 -983 $1,350 $22,138,919 - 3
15 N Isle Of Dogs FoxS $1,570,000 - 27 - $58,148 $1,570,000 - 1

 

[mattCR]

This week on Movie Pass saw "Game Night" (silly); Red Sparrow and Love, Simon.

Somewhat sad Love, Simon isn't doing better at the box office; it is really well done.

 

[Wayne_j]

Deadline Saturday morning estimates.

rank film dist. screens (chg) fri 3-day (-%) total wkd no.
1 Ready Player One WB/VR 4,234 $15M $41.4M $53.3M 1
2 Acrimony LG 2,006 $7M $16M 1
3 Black Panther Dis 2,988 (-382) $4M $11.5M (-32%) $650.9M 7
4 I Can Only Imagine RSA 2,648 (+395) $3.6M $10M (-26%) $54.8M 3
5 Pacific Rim: Uprising Leg/Uni 3,708 (0) $3.2M (-69%) $9.2M (-67%) $45.7M 2
6 Sherlock Gnomes Par/MGM 3,662 (0) $3M (+7%) $7.4M (-30%) $23.2M 2
7 Love, Simon Fox 2,024 (-410) $1.9M $5.3M (-29%) $32.7M 3
8 A Wrinkle in Time Dis 2,367 (-1,056) $1.9M $5.1M (-38%) $83.6M 4
9 Tomb Raider MGM/WB 2,788 (-1,066) $1.7M $5M (-51%) $50.8M 3
10 Paul, Apostle of Christ Sony 1,473 (0) $1.2M (-27%) $3.7M (-27%) $11.8M 2
11 Isle of Dogs FSL 165 (+135) $977K (+75%) $2.74M (+69%) $5.8M 2
12 god’s Not Dead 3 PURE 1,693 $950K $2.7M 1

 

[Jake Lipson]

Somewhat sad Love, Simon isn't doing better at the box office; it is really well done.

I agree. However, the upshot of this is that it was so cheaply budgeted that it doesn't have to be huge in order to turn a healthy profit anyway.

 

[Wayne_j]

Per box office mojo.

TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count / Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week #
1 N Ready Player One WB $41,210,000 - 4,234 - $9,733 $53,215,000 - 1
2 N Tyler Perry's Acrimony LGF $17,100,000 - 2,006 - $8,524 $17,100,000 - 1
3 2 Black Panther BV $11,263,000 -34.1% 2,988 -382 $3,769 $650,699,634 - 7
4 3 I Can Only Imagine RAtt. $10,750,685 -21.0% 2,648 +395 $4,060 $55,576,022 $7 3
5 1 Pacific Rim Uprising Uni. $9,205,000 -67.3% 3,708 - $2,482 $45,670,820 $150 2
6 4 Sherlock Gnomes Par. $7,000,000 -34.0% 3,662 - $1,912 $22,820,646 $59 2
7 7 Love, Simon Fox $4,800,000 -36.9% 2,024 -410 $2,372 $32,140,794 $17 3
8 5 Tomb Raider WB $4,700,000 -53.5% 2,788 -1,066 $1,686 $50,502,178 $94 3
9 6 A Wrinkle in Time BV $4,694,000 -42.9% 2,367 -1,056 $1,983 $83,250,414 - 4
10 8 Paul, Apostle of Christ Sony $3,500,000 -32.3% 1,473 - $2,376 $11,530,838 $5 2
11 15 Isle Of Dogs FoxS $2,810,000 +74.0% 165 +138 $17,030 $5,917,274 - 2
12 N God's Not Dead: A Light in Darkness PFR $2,630,000 - 1,693 - $1,553 $2,630,000 - 1
13 9 Game Night WB (NL) $2,470,000 -40.2% 1,335 -531 $1,850 $65,007,294 $37 6
14 12 Peter Rabbit Sony $2,005,000 -21.0% 1,667 -404 $1,203 $110,651,126 $50 8
15 10 Midnight Sun Global Road $1,892,958 -52.7% 2,128 -45 $890 $7,742,174 - 2
16 17 The Death of Stalin IFC $1,453,936 +44.4% 484 +343 $3,004 $3,917,517 - 4
17 20 The Greatest Showman Fox $690,000 -0.9% 764 +286 $903 $172,051,190 $84 15
18 13 Red Sparrow Fox $680,000 -69.8% 508 -974 $1,339 $45,640,772 $69 5
19 19 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony $650,000 -23.3% 783 -239 $830 $402,740,739 $90 15
20 14 Strangers: Prey at Night Aviron $625,000 -69.7% 537 -944 $1,164 $23,539,376 - 4
21 N Baaghi 2 FIP $580,000 - 123 - $4,715 $580,000 - 1
22 18 Annihilation Par. $330,000 -63.3% 243 -235 $1,358 $32,142,971 $40 6
23 16 Death Wish (2018) MGM $295,000 -75.8% 407 -897 $725 $33,396,857 $30 5
24 24 The Leisure Seeker SPC $248,622 -14.5% 155 +38 $1,604 $1,081,528 - 9
25 29 Coco BV $73,000 -37.0% 120 -24 $608 $209,498,871 - 19
26 34 Star Wars: The Last Jedi BV $69,000 -32.4% 109 -41 $633 $620,099,903 - 16
27 N Finding Your Feet RAtt. $61,295 - 14 - $4,378 $61,295 - 1
28 28 Flower Orch. $48,072 -59.4% 102 +45 $471 $278,096 - 3
29 39 Foxtrot SPC $47,346 -32.7% 35 +9 $1,353 $342,004 - 5
30 35 A Fantastic Woman SPC $46,359 -51.5% 66 -55 $702 $1,804,308 - 9
31 65 Journey's End Good Deed $46,200 +223.6% 35 +26 $1,320 $85,100 - 3
32 40 Call Me by Your Name SPC $45,276 -32.6% 31 -30 $1,461 $17,973,767 - 19
33 23 Fifty Shades Freed Uni. $45,000 -85.2% 170 -339 $265 $100,380,655 $55 8
34 N Gemini Neon $34,184 - 4 - $8,546 $34,184 - 1
35 56 Final Portrait SPC $33,237 +30.5% 9 +6 $3,693 $70,867 - 2
36 31 The Hurricane Heist ENTMP $30,211 -71.4% 36 -92 $839 $6,084,464 $35 4
37 57 Hostiles ENTMP $17,260 -21.7% 53 +3 $326 $29,788,106 - 15
38 N Outside In Orch. $11,339 - 9 - $1,260 $11,339 - 1
39 N Love After Love IFC $11,263 - 1 - $11,263 $11,263 - 1
40 61 The Insult Cohen $7,651 -51.3% 9 -2 $850 $975,231 - 12
41 N The Great Silence (2018 re-release) FM $7,639 - 1 - $7,639 $7,639 - 1
42 N The Gardener Grav. $6,800 - 1 - $6,800 $6,800 - 1
43 66 Ramen Heads FB $5,285 -57.0% 5 -1 $1,057 $35,647 - 3
44 85 Faces Places Cohen $2,337 -15.2% 6 -4 $390 $947,397 - 26
45 78 The Young Karl Marx Orch. $1,150 -80.3% 4 -11 $288 $111,623 - 6
46 93 King of Hearts (2018 re-release) Cohen $401 -52.4% 1 -1 $401 $16,650 - 6
47 98 Double Lover Cohen $232 -61.7% 1 -1 $232 $166,388 - 7

 

[Tino]

Analysis from boxoffice guru.

THIS WEEKEND Steven Spielberg returned to mainstream sci-fi cinema and generated his biggest opening in ten years with the futuristic adventure Ready Player One which easily ruled the Easter holiday frame. The Warner Bros. release debuted to an estimated $41.2M over the Friday-to-Sunday span averaging a solid $9,733 from 4,234 locations. Opening on Thursday with Wednesday night pre-shows, the PG-13 actioner kicked off its run with an impressive $53.2M across four days. 12% of that came from 405 IMAX screens.

It was the largest opening weekend of Spielberg's career since the $100.1M of 2008's Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. Reviews were overwhelmingly positive for Ready and paying crowds were also pleased. The CinemaScore grade was a promising A-. Studio data indicated that the audience was 59% male and appeal was spread across a broad age range with 26% of the crowd being under 18, 42% falling into the 18-35 category, and 32% being over 35. With good buzz and many schools on spring break this week, the road ahead looks bright.

Based on the best-selling book, but also offering some changes, Ready Player One did not have major stars but instead was sold on the source material, the director's name, and the promise of a dazzling visual spectacle. The $175M-budgeted film generated the second biggest opening weekend of 2018 after only Black Panther.

Ready Player One also rocked the global box office opening to a stellar $128M from international territories this weekend for a potent worldwide launch of $181.2M. China led the way as usual with a mighty $61.7M in three days which was a new company record for Warners. This marked the third consecutive weekend when a Hollywood action tentpole opened bigger in China than in the U.S. Last weekend it was Pacific Rim Uprising ($64.9M vs $28.1M) and the week before was Tomb Raider($41.3M vs $23.6M). With Germany and Japan still to come, Ready Player One has a good shot at reaching the $500-600M range in global box office by the end of the run.

Tyler Perry attracted solid business for his latest film Acrimony which debuted in second place with an estimated $17.1M from 2,006 locations for a healthy $8,524 average. The R-rated film was anchored by Taraji P. Henson and skewed heavily to adult women - 74% of the crowd was female and 85% was over 25. Audiences spent their money on diversity at the box office as the top ten included four films led by African-American stars and three films led by women.

Another week, another milestone for Black Panther. The biggest super hero movie of all-time ranked third in its seventh weekend of play and grossed an estimated $11.3M propelling the domestic cume over the $650M mark with a robust $650.7M. The T'Challa megahit will pass Jurassic World's $652.3M in a matter of days to take the number four spot on the all-time domestic list on its way to a final in the $680M area. With an additional $623.2M from international markets, Black Panthercurrently stands at $1.27 billion worldwide which is number 11 all-time. The global final looks on course to reach roughly $1.32 billion which is an incredible result.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

the PG-13 actioner kicked off its run with an impressive $53.2M across four days

I love how $53.2M is impressive for this movie; this same publication would likely call that sum "anemic" or some other derogatory term had a Marvel or DC movie opened with the same total.

An opening of $53.2M domestically will not be enough for the film to break even, unless it significantly exceeds that total overseas (which is entirely possible).