2018 At The Boxoffice (1 Viewer)

[Sean Bryan]

http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-panther-thursday-night-preview-box-office-1202291093/

Projections keep going up.

Saturday writethru, after Friday, 8:58PM: By the time the four-day President’s Day holiday stretch ends, Black Panther will have surpassed many of Marvel’s mightiest on the all-time domestic B.O. openers chart. Black Panther is now looking at the 6th best opening of all-time on a 3-day-basis with an estimated $185.8M per industry projections and a mind-blowing $213M over four days.

1..) Black Panther (DIS), 4,020 theaters / $76.6M Fri (includes $25.2M in previews) /3-day: $185.8M /4-day: $213M/Wk 1

Wakanda Forever!

 

[TravisR]

http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-panther-thursday-night-preview-box-office-1202291093/

Projections keep going up.

A theater near me has online ticketing and I can see that all of the 27 screenings today have either sold out or are almost sold out. That's more impressive because a fairly large snowstorm is supposed to be coming around nightfall and all the night shows are still sold out/almost sold out.

I guess the ridiculous stories that Nazis are making up about white people being beat up at Black Panther aren't working to keep everyone from going to see this movie.

 

[Sean Bryan]

... and up

Wow!

 

[Tino]

‘Black Panther’ Rips Apart Box Office Records: 3-Day Opening Rises To $194M+; 4-Day At $223M+

Www.deadline.com

Sunday, 12:31AM: Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther is even more ferocious than ever imagined. Late night estimates (not from Disney) indicate that T’Challa is headed to $194M over three-days after a super Saturday night between $66.8M-$68M which is only 11% down from Friday on the high-end. Also if you back out $25.2M Thursday previews from Friday’s $76.4M, Saturday’s business is still technically +33%. So that means business for Black Panther wasn’t front-loaded. Four-day figures remain a wild forecast for many analysts: They’re certain that Black Panther is expected to clear $220M, but he could fly as high as $230M. Projections at this minute are averaging around $223M. Over three-days, Black Panther now beats Avengers: Age of Ultron‘s 3-day number of $191.2M for the fifth best opening of all-time behind Avengers ($207.4M). On a four-day basis, it will also beat Ultron ($204.4M), but it might kick Avengers 4-day haul as well ($226.3M). It’s summer box office records during the second month of the year. Ryan Coogler went up to his hometown of Oakland on Thursday night to surprise Black Panther fans at previews while Chadwick Boseman, Coogler, Marvel boss Kevin Feige, EP Louis D’Esposito and the Marvel gang surprised fans at the Cinemark LA and other theaters in town on Friday night.

 

[Sean Bryan]

‘Black Panther’ Rips Apart Box Office Records: 3-Day Opening Rises To $194M+; 4-Day At $223M+

Www.deadline.com

Sunday, 12:31AM: Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther is even more ferocious than ever imagined. Late night estimates (not from Disney) indicate that T’Challa is headed to $194M over three-days after a super Saturday night between $66.8M-$68M which is only 11% down from Friday on the high-end. Also if you back out $25.2M Thursday previews from Friday’s $76.4M, Saturday’s business is still technically +33%. So that means business for Black Panther wasn’t front-loaded. Four-day figures remain a wild forecast for many analysts: They’re certain that Black Panther is expected to clear $220M, but he could fly as high as $230M. Projections at this minute are averaging around $223M. Over three-days, Black Panther now beats Avengers: Age of Ultron‘s 3-day number of $191.2M for the fifth best opening of all-time behind Avengers ($207.4M). On a four-day basis, it will also beat Ultron ($204.4M), but it might kick Avengers 4-day haul as well ($226.3M). It’s summer box office records during the second month of the year. Ryan Coogler went up to his hometown of Oakland on Thursday night to surprise Black Panther fans at previews while Chadwick Boseman, Coogler, Marvel boss Kevin Feige, EP Louis D’Esposito and the Marvel gang surprised fans at the Cinemark LA and other theaters in town on Friday night.

Mighty impressive!

 

[Sean Bryan]

Disney has released their estimate for the 3 day weekend at $192M.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=marvel2017b.htm

 

[Robert Crawford]

First official tracking for Black Panther is out and the estimates are looking pretty good.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/marvels-black-panther-tracking-130m-possible-february-box-office-record/



https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/black-panther-tracking-heroic-100m-us-debut-1078222

A $100M + opening weekend is looking likely.

Just a little bit off.

 

[Wayne_j]

At least tracking for Black Panther is better than it was for Jurassic World. The week before JW came out projections were over 50% low. Projected was about $100 million, actual was over $200 million.

 

[Sean Bryan]

.... and up and up!

This really very impressive.

The movie seems to have tapped into that certain something that is making it a “cultural phenomenon”. (I know, cheesy phrase). The estimates several weeks back were looking at this like one would another new “Marvel Studios” first standalone for a new character. Seems they took into account the popularity of the Marvel brand, the good will from the movies that performed well (critically and financially) in 2016/2017, the reception of the character in Captain America Civil War, and “social media conversation” tracking, putting it in the $100M+ range. But they couldn’t have known how well the movie would be reviewed (which, like it or not, does seem to have an impact box office numbers), and they really didn’t foresee how the importance of this film to the Black community would translate into making it an “event”.

Considering that some were thinking that the initial $100M+ projections wouldn’t come close to being achieved, this performance is truly impressive.

 

[Malcolm R]

The Disney/Marvel trolls must be beside themselves. Or maybe they'll save it for after the next DC film premieres to only a fraction of the business.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

I think Black Panther will have the biggest opening weekend of any of the standalone movies -- $125 million plus. I wouldn't bet against it beating Spider-Man: Homecoming, either. I anticipate it hanging onto most of the reliable superhero audiences of all ethnicities while crossing over to black moviegoers that don't shell out for every superhero movie.

Obligatory Obnoxious "I Told You So" Post™ ... Though as it turns out, my estimate was far too conservative.

 

[Malcolm R]

For those interested, using the BOMojo converter, BP's gross translates to about 22 million tickets sold for 3-days.

Also, it would be nice if this would finally put to rest the long-standing belief that you cannot open a tentpole movie to blockbuster money outside the "summer" season. If people want to see your movie, they'll show up in any month of the year.

 

[Nigel P]

Totally agree Malcolm.

Getting great support from the UK.

https://www.screendaily.com/box-off...e-1bn-extended-global-weekend/5126805.article

In the UK Black Panther grossed $24.8m in its first six days for the highest February opening weekend of all time including previews, and the second biggest debut for a Marvel Studios film behind Avengers: Age Of Ultron. The debut has overtaken the entire run of Justice League, Captain America: The First Avenger, Thor, Ant-Man, and Iron Man.

 

[Malcolm R]

In other BO news, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle now Sony's 2nd biggest release ever. From flickeringmyth:

Despite competition for tickets ramping up with the release of Marvel’s Black Panther, Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle has hit another box office milestone this weekend as the film passed the $900 million mark worldwide.

Domestically, the Jumanji sequel has now earned $377.6 million, making it Sony’s second-biggest North American release of all time behind 2002’s Spider-Man. Internationally, it has amassed $527 million, for a global haul of $904.6 million. Again, that is second only to Skyfall, which Sony distributed in 2012, with the Bond film earning $1.109 billion worldwide.

If the legs continue, it conceivably could pass Spider-Man ($403.7m) to make it Sony's domestic #1. School vacations are happening now or next week on many parts of the country.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

Also, it would be nice if this would finally put to rest the long-standing belief that you cannot open a tentpole movie to blockbuster money outside the "summer" season. If people want to see your movie, they'll show up in any month of the year.

Ultimately, this is the only way that the movie theater business will survive, if studios recognize this and act accordingly. In the past, when a studio would have a hit in an "off-season" time of year, they would immediately schedule the sequel during prime summer time. Look at the current "Deadpool" as an example... since it did so well in February, rather than putting out the sequel at the same or similar time of year, they have moved it to May. It's almost as if they're saying, "We didn't realize the first one was going to be a real hit, but since it's a hit, the sequel has to come out when other hits come out" instead of saying, "Great, we can make $100 million or more and not face any competition." (For what it's worth, I saw Deadpool theatrically precisely because it opened during a time in the year when there wasn't anything else like it out there. When Deadpool 2 comes out right between other movies like Avengers 3 and Han Solo, I might not have as many opportunities to see it, and it's a lesser priority to me than those other titles.)

I think it was AMC that reported recently that on average, they sell about 90 tickets per day per auditorium. Not per showing, but per day. That average includes both the busiest times of year and the slowest. That essentially means that they're losing money about 40 out of 52 weeks of the year. I can't imagine AMC is alone in that, which is why Regal has announced their intention to experiment with variable pricing. The bottom line is, the theater business cannot survive if they are losing money most weeks of the year. If they are losing money every month except for May and December (and maybe June), they're not going to be able to pay their rent, or be able to staff their theaters.

Like it or not, the industry has shifted to a blockbusters-only mode, where those are the only films that the studios invest in and promote. Those movies make huge amounts of money, but they open wide, and take in most of their box office in the first two weeks, and then disappear quickly.

So as an industry thing, this will be essential going forward. We don't need Avengers 3, Deadpool 2, Han Solo, Jurassic World 2, Incredibles 2, Mission Impossible 6, and Ant-Man 2 all coming in the same 8-10 week period. Those movies are all part of franchises that have proven track records that would be successful at any time of year. What we do need are movies like that coming out in February, March, April, August, September and October, so that the theatrical exhibition business remains viable.

I am pleased that Disney isn't afraid of so-called "off-season" releases, and only hope that they will continue to expand the calendar.

 

[Malcolm R]

Black Panther did a lot of business this weekend, but as you say, most of the ticket sales will be going back to Disney/Marvel for the first couple weekends. I'm hoping that theaters are making some additional money by the long runs of films like Jumanji and The Greatest Showman. It's been my understanding that the longer a film plays in theaters, the better the ticket money split becomes in favor of the theater.

When most films are over and done within 3-4 weeks, these films have been playing now for 9 weekends and are still drawing decent crowds (Saw Jumanji this weekend. It was in a smaller room, but still quite crowded). Hopefully the theater owners are making something on these extended runs.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

The old formula used to be that studios would get about 90% in opening weekend, and that it would drop by 5-10% on each subsequent weekend. I don't know how much studios have tweaked that formula since most movies now seem to disappear after about two weeks. I know Disney's terms are very strict, and they usually demand four weeks in the theater's biggest auditoriums in order to be allowed to book the film. But I would imagine theaters would be doing well on Jumanji and Greatest Showman since those have been out far longer than anything survives these days. Those are also family-friendly films, which in my limited experience as a theater cashier, tend to lead to more concession purchases than more adult-skewing films, which is of course good for the theater.

 

[Malcolm R]

tend to lead to more concession purchases than more adult-skewing films, which is of course good for the theater.

Well, I did my part yesterday. My ticket was only $8.50, but I spent nearly $12 on a mid-sized popcorn and drink.

 

[Tino]

Jumanji will definitely pass Spider-Man’s original $403 million gross from 2002...however that gross is $637 million adjusted for inflation. Don’t think Jumanji has those legs.

 

[Malcolm R]

Jumanji will definitely pass Spider-Man’s original $403 million gross from 2002...however that gross is $637 million adjusted for inflation. Don’t think Jumanji has those legs.

No one cares about adjusted dollars except us nerds in this thread.