2010 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[TravisR]

Was Kick-Ass really expected to be that big of a hit? It's coming from Lion's Gate and is based on a comic that 99% of the audience has never heard of (let alone read).

 

[Malcolm R]

Originally Posted by TravisR

Was Kick-Ass really expected to be that big of a hit? It's coming from Lion's Gate and is based on a comic that 99% of the audience has never heard of (let alone read).

I agree that expectations should have been tempered, but most of the box office prognosticators were predicting in the $25-$32 million range, given the large amount of buzz and press the film was getting. It fell several million short. Even the studio was quoted as saying, "anything in the $20 millions would be a victory." It didn't quite make it.

There's also this, snipped from BoxOfficeMojo.com:

But here's the kicker: Kick-Ass distributor Lionsgate included the movie's 10 p.m. Thursday previews in the weekend gross, when, objectively, the weekend is Friday-Sunday. Remove those grosses and How to Train Your Dragon could be No. 1, given how close the movies were. Lionsgate has not responded to multiple requests to clarify this matter, but word has it that the Kick-Ass Thursday night figure was over $200,000.

I've seen this expressed in a couple of different places. So, unless all films are now going to be allowed to count Thu-Sun grosses as "weekend" grosses, it seems there is some murmuring that the film may be #1, but that it's #1 with an asterisk.

 

[Patrick Sun]

I posted this in the Kick-Ass discussion thread, but it's appropriate for the box office discussion, and I don't think the article gives away too many spoilers from the film (but in case it does for you, caveat emptor!).

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/movies/2010/04/kick-ass-matthew-vaughn-box-office.html

 

[mattCR]

Real problem is this:

Internet Phenomenon translates roughly to a film with a high rate of piracy amongst a group of kids with no money or jobs who sit on twitter all day gaping at celebrities.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

The thing is, unlike most superhero films Vaughn brought this one in on a $30 million budget. If it can double its opening weekend over the course of its theatrical run, everything it makes on home video will be gravy. Creative control is still very possible as long as you can stretch a buck.

 

[JediFonger]

what's next upcoming weekend? april feels a bit 'light' considering Avatar's past performances

 

[Malcolm R]

Originally Posted by JediFonger

Also, The Losers and Oceans (Disney doc).

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Originally Posted by Adam Lenhardt

The thing is, unlike most superhero films Vaughn brought this one in on a $30 million budget. If it can double its opening weekend over the course of its theatrical run, everything it makes on home video will be gravy. Creative control is still very possible as long as you can stretch a buck.

To be fair, Kick-Ass is an action movie, not a superhero movie. It looked great for $30M...great directing and editing goes a long way towards presentation.

 

[JediFonger]

you know... w/ the release of Kick Ass, i misread your title of J Lo's latest film as:

The Back Da Ass Up Plan.

now THAT'S a movie that would take down any box office every weekend beating avatar! esp. if it was 3-D.

Also, The Losers and Oceans (Disney doc).

 

[Don Solosan]

"[COLOR= rgb(24, 24, 24)]The thing is, unlike most superhero films Vaughn brought this one in on a $30 million budget. If it can double its opening weekend over the course of its theatrical run, everything it makes on home video will be gravy."

My understanding is that Lions Gate paid $45 mil for the US rights, so the actual producers are already in the black on Kick-Ass. Lions Gate also has the expense of prints and advertising, etc. Doubling its opening weekend ($40 mil say, roughly, half of that to Lions Gate) doesn't get this close to the profit column.

Other companies are handling the foreign distribution, so Lions Gate will not be getting any of that money.

I'm planning on seeing it again before it gets bumped out of theaters. It'll be interesting to see what happens this weekend.[/COLOR]

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Originally Posted by Don Solosan

[COLOR= rgb(24, 24, 24)]My understanding is that Lions Gate paid $45 mil for the US rights, so the actual producers are already in the black on Kick-Ass. Lions Gate also has the expense of prints and advertising, etc. Doubling its opening weekend ($40 mil say, roughly, half of that to Lions Gate) doesn't get this close to the profit column.
[/COLOR]

Lionsgate paid $15 million for international distribution rights, then dumped another $30 million into domestic advertising, which brings the total to $45 million. I'm not sure what percentage Lionsgate gets of the gross, but I would imagine it's significant.

[COLOR= rgb(24, 24, 24)] Other companies are handling the foreign distribution, so Lions Gate will not be getting any of that money.
[/COLOR]

Lionsgate already made ~$4 million by selling the international rights.

[COLOR= rgb(24, 24, 24)] I'm planning on seeing it again before it gets bumped out of theaters. It'll be interesting to see what happens this weekend.
[/COLOR]

Definitely. If it shows legs, the soft opening won't be seen as such a big deal. If it drops like a rock, none of us should be worrying too much about a sequel.

 

[Adam_S]

Originally Posted by Adam Lenhardt


Lionsgate paid $15 million for international distribution rights, then dumped another $30 million into domestic advertising, which brings the total to $45 million. I'm not sure what percentage Lionsgate gets of the gross, but I would imagine it's significant.

advertising dollars always come off the top, meaning it has to gross its 30 million in advertising budget before anything gets divided amongst anyone. And since studios get back about 58% of ticket sales for the life of the run (not the old system of 90%, 80% etc) they used a decade ago) that means it needs to gross about 52 million before 30 million returns to the studio. After advertising there can be other cuts off the top, so it may not be into dividing up the percentages at that point yet.

 

[Don Solosan]

Thanks, Adam and Adam, for breaking it down. The articles I've read have lumped the two sums together and reported it as "paid for rights," which left me with the wrong impression.

I'm going to go see it again this weekend.

 

[TravisR]

I'm guessing it won't do particularly well in terms of box office but The Losers was a fun little movie.

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "How to Train Your Dragon" $15.0 million ($178.0 million) -24%
#2 "The Back-Up Plan" $12.3 million
#3 "Date Night" $10.6 million ($63.5 million) -37%
#4 "The Losers" $9.6 million
#5 "Kick-Ass" $9.5 million ($34.9 million) -52%
#6 "Clash of the Titans" $9.0 million ($145.6 million) -42%
#7 "Death at a Funeral" $8.0 million ($28.4 million) -51%
#8 "Oceans" $6.0 million ($8.5 million)
#9 "The Last Song" $3.7 million ($55.4 million) -38%
#10 "Alice in Wonderland" $2.2 million ($327.5 million) -40%
#11 "Hot Tub Time Machine" 2.0 million ($45.7 million) -43%
#12 "Diary of a Wimpy Kid" $1.8 million ($59.5 million) -37%

This weekend marked the lowest grossing top 12 finish of the year thus far as none of this week's new releases made much of an impact with moviegoers. Business was off by 14% from a year ago, but up 13% compared to this frame in '08. 2010's massive year-to-date domestic haul now stands at $3.330 billion, marking a 9% improvement from last year ($3.067 billion), up 26% compared to '08 ($2.636 billion), 24% stronger than '07 ($2.685 billion), and a 29% increase over '06 ($2.592 billion).

Next weekend will be the final frame before the summer season kicks off with "Iron Man 2" and the industry is hoping for major league business to close out the January-thru-April period. New Line/WB's new incarnation of "A Nightmare on Elm Street" and Summit's "Furry Vengeance" will both hit theaters. Expect 'Nightmare' to have little difficulty in capturing the top spot at the box office next week.

 

[Patrick Sun]

Kinda glad to see Kick-Ass drop back a few spot, only if that'll shut Mark Millar's yap about his film that's *now* destined for cult favorite status.

 

[EricW]

Kinda glad to see Kick-Ass drop back a few spot, only if that'll shut Mark Millar's yap about his film that's destined for cult favorite status.

yes, because after he learns his lesson, Hollywood will be free of big egos...

 

[Patrick Sun]

It's the blathering that kills me, I can understand the big egos.

 

[EricW]

i just don't understand your logic... if the film's box office dies out quickly, how does that diminish Millar's prediction that it'll be a cult favorite? isn't that a requirement of being a cult favorite?

 

[Patrick Sun]

Because Millar was wanting "Wanted" numbers on this film (a big stretch, though it might be okay when judged proportionately against its budget and marketing), and wanting to be that go-to guy with the comic-inspired properties. It's nauseating to see his self-promotional efforts.

I just edited my previous post to include "*now* destined for cult favorite status".