2009 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[Adam_S]

Slumdog Millionaire is timing it's expansion beautifully to the oscar nominations. It'll come out with 9ish* nominations next thursday and bam it'll be hitting more than a thousand theatres the next day, brilliant move and they'll take it all the way to the bank and the BP/BD win.

*Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Score, Song, Sound are almost certain, imo.

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates
3-day
(4-day estimates will be released tomorrow)

#1 "Paul Blart: Mall Cop" $33.8 million
#2 "Gran Torino" $22.2 million ($73.2 million) -25%
#3 "My Bloody Valentine 3D" $21.9 million
#4 "Notorious" $21.5 million
#5 "Hotel for Dogs" $17.7 million
#6 "Bride Wars" $11.8 million ($37.6 million) -44%
#7 "The Unborn" $9.8 million ($33.1 million) -50%
#8 "Defiance" $9.2 million ($9.5 million) +13,402%
#9 "Marley & Me" $6.3 million ($132.7 million) -45%
#10 "Slumdog Millionaire" $5.9 million ($42.7 million) +56%
#11 "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" $5.6 million ($102.6 million) -39%
#12 "Bedtime Stories" $4.8 million ($103.8 million) -45%

The industry enjoyed the biggest weekend haul ever for the month of January as business topped the $150 million mark (over the course of the 3-day portion of the weekend) for the first time in history. With tomorrow's holiday, experts expect the MLK 4-day frame to top the $200 million for the first time ever. This weekend was 25% stronger than last year, on top of being a whopping 70% more potent than this frame in '07.

2009's massive year-to-date gross of $641.5 million represents a 30% improvement over last year ($494.5 million), up an impressive 40% over '07 ($459.1 million), 35% stronger than '06 ($474.8 million), and a 34% increase over '05 ($477.3 million).

This weekend also saw 'Paul Blart' become only the third January release in history to open with more than $30 million, joining last year's "Cloverfield" ($40.1 million) and 1997's special edition release of the original "Star Wars" movie ($35.9 million). In terms of history, the most films per year that January has seen debut with more than $20 million has been three, achieved in 2005 with "Coach Carter" ($24.2 million), "White Noise" ($24.1 million), and "Hide and Seek" ($22.0 million). No other year saw more than two January openers top the $20 million mark. This year has already seen a record-shattering five films open north of $20 million with two weekends of business left in the month.

Four new releases hit theaters this weekend and all four ended up in the top five with Sony's "Paul Blart: Mall Cop" topping the field. The comedy ended up with the third biggest opening mark ever for the month of January, as well as earning a stellar per-theater average of $10,751 from its 3,144 locations, which was the second best of the top 12. At a cost of just over $25 million, the movie proved instantly profitable and will go on to be a big hit for the studio. This marks a personal best for star Kevin James as a film's solo above-the-title star, following second billings in such films as "I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry" and "Hitch".

WB's "Gran Torino" is turning into a big hit as it was off by only 25% this weekend. The drama has so far tallied more than $73 million and is clearly on its way to earning well north of the $100 million mark. The film cost a very modest $33 million to produce and as is the case with most films from director/star Clint Eastwood, will be hugely profitable for the studio.

Lionsgate's "My Bloody Valentine 3D" got off to a fantastic start as it debuted with close to $22 million. The horror flick earned an impressive average of $8,642 from its 2,534 theaters, which was the fourth best of the top 12. The movie isn't expected to have the strongest of legs, but expect it to go to be a huge hit for the studio.

Fox Searchlight's "Notorious" also got out of the gates with a solid opening as it tallied about $21.5 million. The biopic's whopping per-theater average of $13,126 from its modest 1,638 locations was easily the best of the top 12. While the film may be front-loaded, it will still end up being a hugely profitable venture for Fox.

DreamWorks/Paramount's "Hotel for Dogs" debuted with close to $18 million this weekend, earning a decent average of $5,413 from its 3,271 theaters. The studios are hoping this one has legs in the coming weeks. They also expect this one to be a solid performer once it gets to home video.

Fox's strong turnaround from their disastrous '08 continues as their comedy, "Bride Wars", had a better hold than most thought it would. The film took a moderate 44% dip this week and has so far tallied just under $38 million. A final domestic haul in the neighborhood of $65-$75 million is now expected for the film, which cost only $30 million to make.

Universal's "The Unborn" also had a stronger-than-expected hold as it was off by about 50% this weekend. Most horror flicks suffer greater declines during their sophomore frames. The movie has currently earned more than $33 million and looks headed for a final mark of about $50-$60 million.

Paramount Vantage's "Defiance" went into wide release this weekend and earned a solid mark of just over $9 million. The film enjoyed a decent average of $5,146 from its 1,789 locations. Fox's "Marley & Me" has now tallied $132.7 million. Fox is also enjoying a fantastic performance by the odds on Oscar favorite "Slumdog Millionaire" as it enjoyed a 56% increase in business this weekend. With the Oscar nods being announced this week, expect that, on top of the phenomenal word-of-mouth the film is earning, to eventually carry this one past the century mark. Both Paramount/WB's "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and Disney's "Bedtime Stories" were able to pass the century mark this weekend as the two movies rounded out the top 12.

Next weekend will see Sony's "Underworld: Rise of the Lycans" and New Line/WB's "Inkheart" battle it out for the top spot. Next week will also see Universal's "Frost/Nixon" and Paramount Vantage's "Revolutionary Road" each enter more than 800 theaters as the two films try to capitalize on whatever Oscar nominations they receive. Fox Searchlight/WB's Oscar favorite "Slumdog Millionaire" will also go into wide release as it hits more than 1,000 more theaters. Look for this one to make a pretty big dent in the top 12. WB's blockbuster "The Dark Knight" will also be entering 200-plus locations following what the studio hopes will be a very good outcome following the announcement of the Oscar nominations.

The studio's are currently enjoying the strongest beginning to a year they've ever had and with 'Underworld', "Inkheart", and 'Slumdog' entering wide release, there's no reason the current winning streak shouldn't continue. Next weekend should give January a fourth consecutive top 12 finish north of the $100 million, marking only the second time that's ever happened (following last year).

 

[Patrick Sun]

If you enjoy movies, this is a pretty solid offering of films at the theaters, especially with the Oscar nominations around the corner, and all the distributors doing their best to time the market with wide releases next weekend.

 

[TravisR]

I guess it's unknowable (if that's even a word) but I wonder how much better My Bloody Valentine would have done if all of its screens were 3-D. I wanted to catch it but the 3-D show was sold out and the 2-D screens were all open but I decided to wait until I could see it in 3-D.

 

[Michael Elliott]

I'd like to know the same Travis. Apparently only 900 screens got the 3D version so more people had to have seen it in 2D or perhaps they just skipped it all together. There's certainly only one way to watch this movie as I can't imagine seeing it in 2D.

 

[TerryRL]

Lionsgate execs are hoping that since the 3D screenings were so tough to get into, that will translate in the movie having stronger than usual legs for a film from this particular genre. While 2D theaters will probably fall off, the 3D screenings could give the movie some sturdy legs.

 

[TravisR]

I'd imagine that that number is close to the total number of 3-D theaters in the country too. I'll be sure to pre-order my tickets for 3-D stuff from now on (like Up, the Toy Storys, Avatar).

 

[Michael Elliott]

I was talking to a friend in Louisville a minute ago and he said there's a theater down there showing both versions. Again, I personally don't see the point of that but whatever. I've often wondered why studios always cut NC-17 movies instead of perhaps releasing both versions. Perhaps put the R version in 2000 theaters and then the NC-17 in 500 or so.

I wonder if LionsGate will be happy with the box office take though. $22 million is something a lot of horror movies make without needing to be in 3-D. Not to mention that ticket prices were higher for this film. With the added costs of sending out 3D glasses I'm curious if they'll be happy or not.

 

[Adam_S]

I imagine Frost/Nixon and Slumdog Millionaire will get the most benefit from the oscar noms. I think revolutionary Road will only pick up two nominations (Actress and costumes, possibly cinematography, score or actor as well) so I don't think it will get as much of a boost, though Kate Winslet's Globe win may help raise interest in the film. Frost/Nixon and Slumdog will pick up around 5 and 9 nominations each. I think Dark Knight and Ben Button will both tie with about 10 nominations (Button has the potential to get 14, Dark Knight potential for 12) with Milk rounding out the roster with about 6. I'm thinking a 5/5 matchup between picture and director, though there are several possibilities for spoilers this year.

Be interesting to see if there's more of an oscar bump with the nominations coming out the day before the weekend, i think there might be.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

There's also the additional cost, which might turn some people off. Here in Albany, the 3D showings were $12.75 (versus $10.25 for regular films) and you couldn't use passes.
That said, it's definitely worth seeing in 3D. The coming-out-of-the-screen effects are as gimmicky and ineffective as ever, but it's worth it for the greater perception of depth. They finally got the lighting right so that it doesn't look darker than a normal movie, and the 3D made it feel like I was looking through a window. I wouldn't want every movie to go 3D (glasses on top of glasses sucks) but it was definitely worth it in this case. This might have topped "Dial M for Murder" as my best 3D experience.

 

[TerryRL]

4-day Weekend Estimates

#1 "Paul Blart: Mall Cop" $39.0 million
#2 "Gran Torino" $26.2 million ($77.2 million) -11%
#3 "My Bloody Valentine 3D" $24.2 million
#4 "Notorious" $24.0 million
#5 "Hotel for Dogs" $22.5 million
#6 "Bride Wars" $14.0 million ($39.9 million) -33%
#7 "The Unborn" $11.0 million ($34.2 million) -45%
#8 "Defiance" $10.7 million ($11.0 million) +15,593%
#9 "Marley & Me" $7.5 million ($133.9 million) -35%
#10 "Slumdog Millionaire" $7.2 million ($44.0 million) +89%
#11 "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" $6.6 million ($103.6 million) -28%
#12 "Bedtime Stories" $6.1 million ($105.0 million) -31%

A whopping $199 million was spent during this year's MLK weekend frame (besting last year's former record by $40 million), making it the biggest ever for the 4-day holiday. 'Paul Blart' earned the second best MLK debut in history (behind "Cloverfield") and a total of five films topped the $20 million mark over the four day period. A record four films from MLK '09 now reside on the list of top 12 openings ever for the holiday period.

 

[JediFonger]

how can they know today's dollar amount if it's not even over yet?

 

[Patrick Sun]

The keyword is "Estimates".

 

[Jose Martinez]

I was quite impressed with the 3D experience of Beowulf. Unfortunately, horror movies aren't my thing so it won't be until Avatar comes out that I will watch another 3D movie.

 

[sestamuch]

I'm yet to check Beowulf to see if it's really worth it... to me at least since the book sagas are pretty cool.

 

[JediFonger]

beowulf 3D was incredibly awesome. zemeckis has done well with polar express and beowulf and his next will be Scrooge in 3D.

 

[TerryRL]

The early estimates are pointing to a very solid #1 finish for "Underworld: Rise of the Lycans". The film looks to have earned between $7-$8 million on Friday, which should translate in an opening weekend haul in the neighborhood of $20 million. The first 'Underworld' flick debuted with close to $22 million back in '03, while the sequel ("Underworld: Evolution") got out of the gates with nearly $27 million in '06. With star Kate Beckinsale sitting this one out, along with director Len Wiseman (who is one of the film's producers), Sony has got to be happy with this new film's performance minus those two key components. The news was not very good for "Inkheart" as it got out of the gate with only about $2 million, finishing in the #8 slot.

'Paul Blart' will finish the weekend at #2 as the film looks to have had a very solid hold. Sony now believes that the movie has a very good chance of eventually topping the $100 million plateau domestically. Along with "Gran Torino", this will mark the first time in history that January has had two $100 million-plus earners. Historically, the month has so far only produced two such hits, the "Star Wars" special edition release ($138.3 million) in '97 and "Black Hawk Down" ($108.6 million) from '02.

Armed with 10 Oscar nominations, "Slumdog Millionaire" (widely considered to be the front-runner) landed in the #6 position as the film expanded to just over 1,400 locations. Look for this one to end its run well north of the $100 million domestic mark.

January '09 continues its record-breaking pace as this will mark the fourth consecutive $100 million-plus finish for the top 12, matching the record set from last year. This month is running more than 10% stronger than January '08 and a final end-of-the-month haul north of the $900 million mark is now expected, marking the first time in history that January has ever tallied that much at the box office.

 

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "Underworld: Rise of the Lycans" $7.9 million
#2 "Paul Blart: Mall Cop" $5.6 million ($48.9 million) 43% Friday-to-Friday drop
#3 "Gran Torino" $4.3 million ($85.9 million) 32% Friday-to-Friday drop
#4 "My Bloody Valentine 3D" $3.1 million ($30.8 million) 62% Friday-to-Friday drop
#5 "Slumdog Millionaire" $2.8 million ($48.1 million) 78% Friday-to-Friday increase
#6 "Hotel for Dogs" $2.5 million ($27.1 million) 42% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "Bride Wars" $2.2 million ($43.9 million) 43% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "Inkheart" $2.1 million
#9 "Notorious" $1.8 million ($27.9 million) 79% Friday-to-Friday drop (Ouch!)
#10 "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" $1.7 million ($106.7 million) 7% Friday-to-Friday increase
#11 "Revolutionary Road" $1.525 million ($8.1 million) 215% Friday-to-Friday increase
#12 "Defiance" $1.520 million ($14.4 million) 44% Friday-to-Friday drop

 

[mattCR]

Jesus. If you've got a 32% hold after you get no noms.. "Gran Torino" may not get Academy respect, but it'll break $100 easy, and might get to the 125-140 range. That's a fantastic box office showing.

 

[Robert Crawford]

A very profitable film considering how Eastwood controls the cost of filming his movies.