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2009 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

Steve Christou

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Interesting list, good to see the "Citizen Kane of Comic Book Movies" (as one magazine is already calling it) hasn't been forgotten. I just hope it does get released in 2009.
 

Adam Lenhardt

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When I saw The Day the Earth Stood Still at the digital IMAX here, the early twenty-something girls sitting behind us with their toddlers in two got into a little argument when the Star Trek trailer finished. One watched the original series in reruns and felt it "rocked," while the other had been forced to watch the movies with her father and concluded it was all "lame." Since their demographic is about as far as you can go from the Trek bread-and-butter, I'm starting to reconsider my dismissal of the movie's chances. Something about the original characters taps into the cultural conciousness in a way that TNG movies just don't.
 

Adam_Duncan

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I will definitely be seeing Gran Torino and Watchmen and I'm also interested in the following:

X-Men Origins: Wolverine, Bruno, Terminator Salvation, Taking Woodstock, 9, The Informant, Shutter Island, Where The Wild Things Are, The Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Wolfman, Sherlock Holmes, The Lovely Bones and Avatar.

Here are some other films due out next year that might be worth seeing:

A Serious Man (The Coen Brothers)
Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans (Werner Herzog)
The Imaginarium Of Doctor Parnassus (Terry Gilliam)
The Limits Of Control (Jim Jarmusch)
 

JoshuaB.

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Other than watching films from my favourite directors (the aforementioned Jarmusch, Coens, Wes Anderson, etc.), there's not a lot to interest me in 2009. I tend to prefer arthouse fare, but with the shuttering of many quasi-indie (studio-owned) labels, financial backing/distribution problems for independent filmmakers, there's not a lot to like. I do like smart popcorn films, but I'm not interested in remakes, sequels and reboots--probably why my Blu-ray/DVD purchases of pre-90s films have skyrocketed in the past year!
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Lou Sytsma

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Agreed - which is why JJ et al and Paramount felt comfortable going the route they have.
 

TerryRL

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While "Star Trek" is generating a lot of anticipation, 'Wolverine', 'Transformers', and 'Half-Blood Prince' are the three titles that are expected to have the year's biggest openings. All are expected to top the $100 million mark during their respective debut weekends.

DreamWorks and Paramount in particular are said to be "very confident" that their 'Transformers' sequel can challenge the opening weekend record of "The Dark Knight" ($158.4 million). Of course, they'll probably have to quell any thoughts of releasing the movie two days prior (on Wednesday) if they want a real shot at the record.
 

TerryRL

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With the early tracking data I've seen, "My Bloody Valentine 3D" is actually tracking pretty strong. Still, that weekend is going to be a tough one with both "Paul Blart: Mall Cop" and "Notorious" also set to open. Both are also (so far) registering solid tracking numbers as well. The studios are hoping to duplicate last January's record-setting performance which saw the month earn $841 million (the most for any January), as well as selling nearly 119 million admissions (the best mark since January '04).

'Paul Blart' has been tracking very well due to some solid marketing by Sony. Fox Searchlight is hoping that "Notorious" (the biopic on slain rapper Biggie Smalls) will do big business with the urban demo, while Lionsgate is expecting a very solid run from 'Valentine' with the film's 3D presentation being the "hook". That weekend will also see "Defiance" and "Last Chance Harvey" go into wide release.

Overall, January has a pretty solid schedule and the studios believe that '09 can get off to a great start because of it.
 

MattFini

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Cool! Thanks for the info, Terry!
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MBV 3D is one of my most anticipated films of '09 ... looks like a blast!
 

JediFonger

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u know the dark knight make take january's box office even though it's a re-release, hahaha!
 

TravisR

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I doubt The Dark Knight re-release is going to make that much money simply because it's already out on video. Except for the most devoted fan, it'll be a tough sell to get people to go out and spend money on a ticket when they just bought it a month ago or if they didn't buy it, they can rent it for less money than the cost of a movie ticket. That being said, whatever they make is going to be almost all profit so there's no reason for Warners to not go for that extra money and get a boost for the Oscars (which is the real reason to for the re-release).
 

Patrick Sun

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I'll go see TDK one more time on the big screen. If you're a fan, why not? Plus, at the moment, I can't watch any BDs on a big screen TV. :D
 

TerryRL

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Friday Estimates

#1 "Marley & Me" $9.8 million ($92.2 million) 30% Friday-to-Friday drop
#2 "Bedtime Stories" $8.6 million ($73.7 million) 15% Friday-to-Friday drop
#3 "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" $7.1 million ($67.7 million) 31% Friday-to-Friday drop
#4 "Yes Man" $5.6 million ($71.0 million) 6% Friday-to-Friday drop
#5 "Valkyrie" $5.5 million ($52.2 million) 33% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "Seven Pounds" $3.9 million ($53.9 million) 18% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "The Tale of Despereaux" $2.8 million ($39.6 million) 12% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "The Day the Earth Stood Still" $1.9 million ($71.3 million) 32% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "Doubt" $1.82 million ($15.5 million) 1% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "Twilight" $1.80 million ($174.1 million) 12% Friday-to-Friday increase
#11 "Slumdog Millionaire" $1.7 million ($25.7 million) 13% Friday-to-Friday increase
#12 "Bolt" $1.3 million ($107.9 million) 20% Friday-to-Friday increase
 

Adam Lenhardt

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Not surprised by the strong hold for "Seven Pounds". Caught it tonight in a relatively full theater, and the crowd was very diverse. You had everyone from the art house crowd attracted by the somewhat weighty subject matter to a group of kids from the intercity high school attracted to a Will Smith movie that looked different. It's the type of a movie that divides audiences, but entices everybody.
 

chemist

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I am very curious to see the financial performance of TDK rerelease. Terry, is there any tracking info from WB on this? Do they feel it has a real shot at hitting $600M? Since major rereleases are a thing of the past, I would think that the box office take would be almost impossible to predict. Obviously the incredibly recent, highly successful DVD/BR release will hurt its theatrical business. But the IMAX factor could really help to draw interest (and also help the dollar figures with higher ticket prices). We'll all see how it pans out soon enough. Personally I think that it's possible for TDK to top Titanic with this rerelease but I don't think it will quite make it.
 

TerryRL

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Weekend Estimates

#1 "Marley & Me" $24.1 million ($106.5 million) -34%
#2 "Bedtime Stories" $20.3 million ($85.4 million) -26%
#3 "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" $18.4 million ($79.0 million) -32%
#4 "Valkyrie" $14.0 million ($60.7 million) -33%
#5 "Yes Man" $13.9 million ($79.4 million) -17%
#6 "Seven Pounds" $10.0 million ($60.0 million) -24%
#7 "The Tale of Despereaux" $7.0 million ($43.7 million) -21%
#8 "Doubt" $5.0 million ($18.7 million) -6%
#9 "The Day the Earth Stood Still" $4.9 million ($74.3 million) -37%
#10 "Slumdog Millionaire" $4.8 million ($28.8 million) +11%
#11 "Twilight" $4.5 million ($176.8 million) -5%
#12 "Bolt" $3.3 million ($109.9 million) -3%

While the studios opted not to release anything new this week, they did still enjoy the biggest first weekend haul ever for the month of January as business was up about 9% compared to last year, as well as an impressive 28% increase over this frame from '07. This is exactly how the industry wanted the year to start off. Overall, the three day gross of $130.1 million ranks as the second best January weekend in history, trailing the the third weekend mark of $132.4 million from last year (when "Cloverfield" opened).

The year-to-date haul is already at $210.5 million, representing a whopping 45% increase over last year ($145.0 million), up a monstrous 90% over '07 ($110.7 million), an impressive 68% bump over '06 ($125.1 million), and a 63% improvement over '05 ($129.3 million). This bodes well for the rest of the month.

Fox's hit "Marley & Me" once again led the field as it saw a modest decline of 34% this weekend. The film has so far tallied $106.5 million and could end up flirting with a final domestic haul in the neighborhood of $200 million, giving Fox their biggest hit since 2007's "Alvin & the Chipmunks" ($217.3 million). The movie will also give stars Jennifer Aniston and Owen Wilson their biggest and second-biggest domestic hits respectively as the headlining performers.

After a slower-than-expected start, Disney's "Bedtime Stories" has found its legs (dropping only 26% this weekend) and is headed for a final tally well north of the century mark. The movie has so far netted more than $85 million thus far. This will give star Adam Sandler his third consecutive $100 million-plus performer (the fourth out of his last five movies), as well as the tenth overall for his career.

This will put Sandler in some pretty exclusive company as he will become 11th A-lister to have at least ten $100 million-plus domestic earners. That list currently includes Tom Hanks (15), Tom Cruise (15), Harrison Ford (13), Eddie Murphy (13), Will Smith (12), Jim Carrey (11), Robin Williams (11), Mel Gibson (10), Sam Jackson (10), and Julia Roberts (10).

Paramount/WB's Oscar-hopeful, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button", also had a solid hold this weekend as it lost modest 32% of its business from last week. The movie has so far tallied just over $79 million and will end up earning well north of the $100 million plateau, giving star Brad Pitt the eighth such hit of his career. Many are now speculating that the movie will end up pulling in between $180-$200 million because of its massive Oscar buzz.

UA's "Valkyrie" was off by 33% and is now sitting on a domestic haul of $60.7 million. If this one has legs, it could give star Tom Cruise the 16th $100 million-plus hit of his career (which would be the most for one star). Regardless if it reaches that mark or not, the $75 million budgeted film, along with last summer's "Tropic Thunder", has seemingly regained Cruise's box office mojo. "Valkyrie" also gives upstart UA the hit the studio so desperately needed.

WB's "Yes Man" continues to do solid business (dropping only 17%) and looks on course to give star Jim Carrey the 12th $100 million-plus earning hit of his career. Sony's "Seven Pounds" is also showing very solid legs after a slow start (taking only a 24% dip) and has so far tallied just over $60 million. The movie is showing very sturdy legs and could give megastar Will Star his ninth consecutive $100 million hit (13th overall). Even if the film falls short of that amount, it will still add another hit (15th) to Smith's growing resume (of 19 films). There's a reason why this guy is one of the industry's highest paid stars.

Universal's "The Tale of Despereaux" has now earned close to $44 million and looks headed for a final tally in the area of $60 million. Miramax's Oscar-hopeful, "Doubt", lost only 6% of its business this weekend and has earned close to $20 million. Fox's "The Day the Earth Stood Still" is sitting on a domestic haul of $74.3 million. Fox Searchlight's Oscar-favorite "Slumdog Millionaire" continues to fill movie theaters as it saw an 11% increase in business this week. The film has so far earned just under $30 million.

Summit Entertainment's "Twilight" has now tallied close to $177 million, while Disney's "Bolt" is currently sitting on a domestic mark of just under $110 million, giving John Travolta the ninth $100 million-plus hit of his career.

My thoughts and prayers go out to Mr. Travolta, his wife, and the rest of their family.

Next weekend will see the first crop of '09 releases as Fox's "Bride Wars", Universal's "The Unborn", and Sony's "Not Easily Broken" all hit theaters. Next week will also see Oscar-hopefuls "Gran Torino" (from WB) and "The Reader" (Weinstein Co.) go into wide release. The studios are hoping that the momentum will carry through to next weekend as "Bride Wars" and "The Unborn" attempt to wrest away the top spot from "Marley & Me".
 

Pete-D

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I think "The Unborn" and "MBV 3D" will both end up doing relatively well.

This holiday stretch of box office totals feels a lot more like the earlier 90s when films were given more than a week to establish themselves. You can see films like Valkyrie and Seven Pounds finding some traction, like the old days.
 

TerryRL

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The studios are hoping that this weekend is a sign of things to come and that both theater admissions and box office revenue will be up from last year's numbers. As things stand now, "Inkheart" and the 'Underworld' prequel are the movies many believe will be the top two earners for the month.
 

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