2008 at the Box Office (2 Viewers)

[streeter]

Terry, what do you think Legend, Alvin and National Treasure 2 will end up with?
Alvin's been out for a few weeks now, and I'm STILL baffled at how much it has brought in. (that said, I'm very happy that it's doing so well)

 

[TerryRL]

At this point I'd be surprised if "I Am Legend" doesn't make at least $250 million (the third Will Smith flick to earn this kind of coin). The Chipmunks looks like it'll be topping out in the neighborhood of $220 million, with NT2 earning in the area of $210-$220. All three films are also earning big bucks overseas. Worldwide the three flicks look headed for a combined global take of more than $1.3 billion.

Execs at Disney, Fox, and WB are overjoyed because all three films performed way above their respective studio's expectations. WB was expecting about a $150 million haul for 'Legend'. The same can be said for Disney with NT2, but they really didn't expect it to out-distance the first one ($173 million), while Fox was simply hoping to recoup their $60 million budget with 'Alvin'.

As soon as the strike is over, Disney and Fox will commission writers for a third NT adventure and a 'Chipmunks' sequel. WB is currently "exploring options" for a possible follow-up to 'Legend', but I doubt this will happen simply because Will Smith is the main reason the film works to begin with. Good luck expecting a sequel to perform this well without him.

At the end of the day, these three movies are why '07 had such a strong finish and also why '08 will have such a strong beginning.

 

[conedude13]

I'm going to have to hear a lot of good things about cloverfield when it comes out in order for me to see it in the theater, other wise i have no plans as of now to watch it.

Anyone have any inside scoop if the monster is Godzilla or not?

 

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "National Treasure: Book of Secrets" $6.4 million ($157.2 million) 48% Friday-to-Friday drop
#2 "Juno" $5.21 million ($41.0 million) 56% Friday-to-Friday increase
#3 "I Am Legend" $5.20 million ($217.5 million) 44% Friday-to-Friday drop
#3 "One Missed Call" $5.20 million
#5 "Alvin & the Chipmunks" $4.6 million ($165.4 million) 55% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "P.S. I Love You" $2.7 million ($34.0 million) 13% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "Charlie Wilson's War" $2.6 million ($47.0 million) 35% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep" $1.9 million ($26.5 million) 41% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" $1.8 million ($34.8 million) 34% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "Atonement" $1.5 million ($15.6 million) 60% Friday-to-Friday increase
#11 "Alien vs. Predator: Requiem" $1.4 million ($34.0 million) 59% Friday-to-Friday drop
#12 "The Great Debaters" $1.3 million ($19.1 million) 34% Friday-to-Friday drop

While 'National Treasure', "I Am Legend", and the 'Chipmunks' continue their winning ways at the box office, the real story is the indie hit "Juno" turning into a mainstream sensation. As posted earlier, this one is clearly on its way to becoming Fox Searchlight's first $100 million-plus earner.

"P.S. I Love You" continues to show very strong legs, while both "Charlie Wilson's War" and 'Sweeney Todd' continue to have decent, but far from spectacular, box office runs. "Atonement" has proving to be an indie darling in the art-house theaters. The AVP sequel is sinking like a stone and "The Great Debaters" has to be seen as a bit of a disappointment at this point. It'll probably have a much stronger run on home video.

Oscar hopeful "There Will Be Blood" continues to dazzle in limited play as it has so far earned a stellar $839K from only 51 theaters.

 

[Jose Martinez]

So when is There Will Be Blood going wide? I don't see any release schedule showing it wide in the near future. It's one of two 2007 films I'm still waiting to see.

 

[TerryRL]

I believe "There Will Be Blood" won't be going wide (about 1,100 theaters) until sometime next month.

 

[Greg Layton]

I'm sure going to miss living in Chicago. I hope Grand Rapids is considered a big enough market to eventually get the releases that only expand to a 1,000 or so screens. I'd hate to have to drive across the state of Michigan (or back to Chicago) to see this movie, but if I have to I will.

 

[TerryRL]

Releases by the major studios in '08...

DISNEY
"Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour" 2/1/08
"Step Up 2 the Streets" 2/14/08
"College Road Trip" 3/7/08
"The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian" 5/16/08
"Wall-E" 6/27/08
"South of the Border" 8/1/08
"Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas in 3-D" (2008 re-issue) 10/24/08
"Bolt" 11/26/08
"Bedtime Stories" 12/25/08

DREAMWORKS (thru Paramount)
"The Ruins" 4/4/08
"Kung Fu Panda" 6/6/08
"Tropic Thunder" 7/11/08
"Eagle Eye" 8/8/08
"Madagascar: The Great Crate Escape" 11/7/08
"Revolutionary Road" 12/19/08
"Master of Time and Space" TBD

FOX
"27 Dresses" 1/18/08
"Meet the Spartans" 1/25/08
"Jumper" 2/14/08
"Horton Hears a Who" 3/14/08
"Shutter" 3/21/08
"Nim's Island" 4/4/08
"The Rocker" 4/18/08
"The List" 4/25/08
"What Happens in Vegas" 5/16/08
"Starship Dave" 5/30/08
"The Happening" 6/13/08
"Space Chimps" 7/18/08
"The X-Files 2" 7/25/08
"Dragonball" 8/15/08
"Babylon A.D." 8/29/08
"City of Ember" 10/10/08
"The Day the Earth Stood Still" 12/12/08
"Marley and Me" 12/19/08

LIONSGATE
"Rambo" 1/25/08
"The Eye" 2/1/08
"Witless Protection" 2/22/08
"The Bank Job" 3/7/08
"Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns" 3/21/08
"College" 4/11/08
"Forbidden Kingdom" 4/18/08
"Midnight Meat Train" 5/16/08
"Religulous" 6/20/08
"Punisher: War Zone" 9/12/08
"My Best Friend's Girl" 9/19/08
"Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail" 10/17/08
"Saw V" 10/24/08

MGM
"Charlie Bartlett" 2/22/08
"Superhero Movie" (with Weinstein Co.) 3/28/08
"Henry Poole Is Here" 4/4/08
Untitled Ice Cube Family Comedy 7/25/08
"Trailer Trash" 8/22/08
"Clive Barker Presents: Hellraiser" (with Weinstein Co.) 9/5/08
"Soul Men" (with Weinstein Co.) 10/10/08
"Scanners" 10/17/08
"Motel Hell" 10/31/08
"Bond 22" (thru Sony) 11/7/08
"Fame" 12/25/08
"The Poughkeepsie Tapes Holiday" TBD

NEW LINE CINEMA
"Over Her Dead Body" 2/1/08
"Be Kind, Rewind" 2/22/08
"Semi-Pro" 2/29/08
"Pride & Glory" 3/14/08
"Inkheart" 3/19/08
"Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo" 4/25/08
"Sex & the City" 5/30/08
"He's Just Not That Into You" 8/1/08
"Journey 3D" 8/8/08
"Four Christmases" 11/14/08
"The Time Traveler's Wife" TBD

PARAMOUNT
"Cloverfield" 1/18/08
"The Spiderwick Chronicles" 2/15/08
"Drillbit Taylor" 3/21/08
"Stop Loss" 3/28/08
"Iron Man" 5/2/08
"Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" (with Lucasfilm) 5/22/08
"The Love Guru" 6/20/08
"Case 39" 8/22/08
"Nowhereland" 9/26/08
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" 11/26/08
"Star Trek XI" 12/25/08

SONY
"First Sunday" 1/11/08
"Untraceable" 1/25/08
"Vantage Point" 2/22/08
"The Other Boleyn Girl" 2/29/08
"21" 3/28/08
"Prom Night" 4/11/08
"88 Minutes" 4/18/08
"Made of Honor" 5/2/08
"You Don't Mess with the Zohan" 6/6/08
"Hancock" 7/2/08
"Step Brothers" 7/25/08
"The Pineapple Express" 8/8/08
"The International" 8/15/08
"I Know What Boys Like" 8/22/08
"Passengers" 9/5/08
"Lakeview Terrace" 9/19/08
"Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist" 10/3/08
"Quarantine" 10/17/08
"Bond 22" 11/7/08
"Seven Pounds" 12/12/08

UNIVERSAL
"The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything" 1/11/08
"Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins" 2/8/08
"Definitely, Maybe" 2/14/08
"Doomsday" 3/14/08
"Wild Child" 4/4/08
"Leatherheads" 4/4/08
"Baby Mama" 4/18/08
"Forgetting Sarah Marshall" 5/30/08
"The Incredible Hulk" 6/13/08
"Wanted" 6/27/08
"HB II" (a.k.a. "Hellboy 2: The Golden Army") 7/11/08
"Mamma Mia!" 7/18/08
"The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor" 8/1/08
"Death Race" 9/26/08
"The Express" 10/10/08
"The Tale of Despereaux" 12/19/08

WB
"Fool's Gold" 2/8/08
"10,000 B.C." 3/7/08
"Speed Racer" 5/9/08
"Get Smart" 6/20/08
"The Dark Knight" 7/18/08
"The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2" 8/8/08
"Nights in Rodanthe" 9/12/08
"RockNRolla" 10/3/08
"Body of Lies" 10/10/08
"Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince" 11/21/08
"Yes Man" 12/19/08
"Trick 'r Treat" TBD
"Spring Breakdown" TBD
"Mama's Boy" TBD

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Of that whole list, WB has two of the three I am currently most interested in:
The Dark Knight
Body of Lies

With The Curious Case of Benjamin Button being the third.

Looks to be a pretty promising year, with a stronger summer I hope.

 

[Malcolm R]

Is "The X-Files 2" really going to be ready for July? It seems like it was just announced that a script had been completed.

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "National Treasure: Book of Secrets" $20.2 million ($171.0 million) -45%
#2 "I Am Legend" $16.4 million ($228.7 million) -40%
#3 "Juno" $16.2 million ($52.0 million) +53%
#4 "Alvin & the Chipmunks" $16.0 million ($176.7 million) -45%
#5 "One Missed Call" $13.5 million
#6 "Charlie Wilson's War" $8.2 million ($52.6 million) -32%
#7 "P.S. I Love You" $8.0 million ($39.4 million) -14%
#8 "The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep" $6.3 million ($30.9 million) -31%
#9 "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" $5.4 million ($38.5 million) -34%
#10 "Atonement" $5.1 million ($19.2 million) +64%

The industry earned the biggest first-weekend haul ever for the month of January as business was up an impressive 21% compared to this frame in '07. Compared to '06, business was up 18%. The top twelve movies pulled in nearly $124 million, which is up from the previous record mark of $120.2 million held by the first frame of '04.

2008 is now sitting on an impressive domestic haul of $238.3 million, representing a 13% bump over last year ($210.2 million), up 34% from '06 ($178.3 million), a massive 60% increase over '05 ($149.3 million), and a 10% improvement over '04 ($217.1 million).

This is exactly the kind of start to the year that the studios were hoping for. The holdovers are (mostly) showing extremely strong legs and the lone new release, "One Missed Call", got off to a stronger than expected start. This bodes well for the rest of January.

Disney's "National Treasure: Book of Secrets" became the first movie since "Disturbia" to hold the top spot at the box office for three weeks. The film was off a moderate 45% and has so far tallied $171 million. A final haul north of the double-century mark is now a lock.

Reclaiming the second slot this weekend was WB's blockbuster "I Am Legend". The move has netted close to $230 million and a final mark of more than $250 million (the third such hit for star Will Smith) looks to be a sure thing. WB is currently looking into sequel (or prequel) possibilities.

Fox Searchlight's Oscar hopeful/indie smash "Juno" saw a huge 53% increase in business as it expanded to 906 more locations. The comedy has now earned just over $52 million and will not only soon pass "Sideways" ($71.5 million) as the biggest hit ever for Fox Searchlight, but will also become 28th release of '07 to top the century mark. The film's average of $8,428 from its 1,925 theaters was the second best of the top ten.

Fox's "Alvin & the Chipmunks" continues to perform way above expectations as it saw its earnings climb to nearly $177 million. I don't know anyone that suspected this one would end up grossing more than $200 million, but that's what's going to happen. Fox is looking to have a sequel in theaters for the holiday season of '09.

WB's "One Missed Call" had a solid debut as it pulled in $13.5 million. The horror flick earned an impressive per-theater average of $6,037 from its 2,240 locations, which was the third best of the top ten. The movie isn't expected to have the strongest legs, but the studio has got to be happy with this start.

Universal's "Charlie Wilson's War" is sitting on a solid mark of $52.6 million. WB's "P.S. I Love You" continues to show extremely strong legs as it has now pulled in $39.4 million. Sony's 'The Water Horse' is sitting on a haul of about $31 million. DreamWorks/Paramount's 'Sweeney Todd' has so far earned $38.5 million. Focus Features' "Atonement" continues to impress in limited play. The film expanded to 273 more theaters, bringing its count to 583 locations. The movie enjoyed a per-theater average of $8,789, which was the best of the top ten.

Next weekend will see three new releases hit theaters, as well as four limited playing features expand further. Freestyle Releasing's "In the Name of the King: A Dungeon Siege Tale", Sony's "First Sunday", and Universal's "The Pirates Who Do Anything" all debut next week.

WB's "The Bucket List" goes into wide release, hitting more than 2,800 theaters. Paramount Vantage's "The Kite Runner" expands to 600 more locations. Picturehouse's "The Orphanage" enters 500 more locations, while Paramount Vantage's "There Will Be Blood" expands to 125 more theaters.

Next week 'National Treasure' will attempt to become the first movie since 2004's "The Passion of the Christ" to hold the top spot for four weeks, but don't be surprised if "The Bucket List" puts up a strong challenge for the top spot. Also expect a solid showing from "First Sunday".

Just two weeks to go before the year's first "event" flick ("Cloverfield") hits theaters.

 

[TerryRL]

Malcolm, filming on the 'X-Files 2' sequel began last month and everyone involved is extremely confident that the movie will have little difficulty in making its late July release date.

 

[Greg Layton]

That's good news about The Bucket List. I desperately want to believe that it's a better film than the reviews are saying... I guess I'll find out soon.

 

[Brandon Conway]

Terry, great info as always.

Out of curiosity, is there a reason you consistently abbreviate "National Treasure" as "NS" rather than "NT"?

 

[TerryRL]

Wow, I actually had no idea I was doing that. Thanks for pointing it out, its been fixed.

I am prone to the occasional brain fart when putting these things together. Sorry for the confusion.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

That's huge for "Juno". Almost everyone I know either has seen it or wants to. Two questions, Terry: 1) What's the theater count change from the previous weekend? 2) What had 2006's indie breakout hit, "Little Miss Sunshine," grossed in its comparable weekend?

 

[Pete-D]

Looks like audiences are just in the mood to go to the theater this January.

I wonder if the first Monday of the New Year being the 7th meant a lot of kids were out of school on winter break a little longer as well.

I can see "The Bucket List" doing pretty well, and Juno will probably play very strongly through January. If Legend, Treasure, and Alvin didn't earn another dime all three studios were still be thrilled, so anything they take from this point on is just gravy ... though that might be a fair bit of gravy

An "I Am Legend" sequel may not be possible (bet the studio is kicking themselves for not meddling with the ending, lol), Independence Day 2 never happened either though. I'm sure Warner Bros. will definitely be slobbering all over any sci-fi scripts they get though that could be tailored for Will Smith.

Kinda interesting how Will just seems to do so well within this genre ... I have to wonder if Spielberg's War of the Worlds might not have been a much bigger hit with Smith instead of Cruise.

 

[TerryRL]

1. "Juno" was in 1,019 locations last week.

2. During the comparable weekend, "Little Miss Sunshine" earned a weekend total of $7.4 million, bringing its 33 day total to $23 million ("Juno" $16.2 million/$52 million). 'Sunshine' would eventually pull in $59.9 million.

 

[Robert Crawford]

Will Smith has always been a likeable celebrity, but I never expected him to be this huge of a star. His likeability has crossed so many demographic groups that he's probably the most bankable movie star of today. Unlike Cruise, who made the mistake of pissing off the largest segment of his fans (women), I don't expect Smith to make a similar mistake with any of his fans.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

I use to argue with my (non-savvy) friends that there were only three REAL stars (open almost anything, anytime, anywhere): Tom Hanks, Tom Cruise, and Julia Roberts. And that was true for quite some time.

Now I honestly think there is only one (and a half - I think Hanks is still strong): Will Smith.

And that's without having many great roles. He's got incredible talent, but for his star status, he's everything people love about an action hero, but eminently relatable, very charismatic, and boy next door. It's a one of a kind combination. He just needs to get some great roles for the critical recognition. But he already has the "star" thing nailed.