2008 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[Chris_T]

As always, thanks Terry.

 

[TerryRL]

No problem.

The general consensus is that SATC will open in the area of $30-$40 million, with Indy IV retaining the top spot with earnings in the neighborhood of $45-$55 million during its sophomore frame.

 

[Kevin Grey]

I'd be shocked if Indy does as well as $45 million- that would only be a 55% drop and the Sunday to Sunday drop is likely to be bigger than normal because of the effect of the holiday opening weekend.

 

[Douglas Monce]

I think if SATC were released between Thanksgiving and Christmas it would probably do very well, but as a summer film I think its likely it will get killed. Having said that however it does seem to be the only film out there for adults. But adults don't really seem to goto the movies much in the summer time.

Doug

 

[Douglas Monce]

Yes but all of the kids just got out of school too. I think you may see a second wave of families going to see it this weekend.

Doug

 

[MikeRS]

It's a funny thing to say about this particular franchise, but families are Indy's "secret weapon".

Matinee shows on Saturday and Sunday will definitely play a pivotal role in it's overall weekend gross. As I said earlier, SATC's demographics are also not too conflicting.

 

[Kevin Grey]

SatC is very much looking to appeal to the same audience that made Devil Wears Prada and Hairspray successful in the summer.

 

[LynxFX]

How much will the R rating hurt that demo? Some theaters are stricter than others with regard to letting under 17 year old's into R rated films. Actually when is the last time we have seen a major female lead R rated 'chick flick'?

 

[Shawn.F]

I don't think the R rating will hurt the movie at all. From what I have been told, that show is hardly PG-13 material. I think its audience are women in their 20s and up, not teens.

 

[LynxFX]

Well as a full time watcher of the show I can say it is not hardly PG-13 material. It gets a solid R with language alone, let alone plenty of nudity throughout the series. I was just curious based on a few reports suggesting that teenage girls wanting to see this movie and the comparison to Devil Wears Prada and Hairspray which had plenty of teenage girl viewers. I do agree that most of the audience will be 20 and up, way up.

 

[Patrick Sun]

The R rating will hurt in terms of ticket sales for the film, even if teenage girls sneak into SatC showings at their local theaters to see the film.

 

[TerryRL]

Prince Caspian's Release Date Was a Mistake? - ComingSoon.net

Disney acknowledged that opening 'Prince Caspian' in May was a mistake. Don't be surprised if they move 'Voyage of the Dawn Treader' out of its current May 7th, 2010 release (only a week after "Iron Man II" debuts) to a December 2010 launch instead.

As for "Sex and the City", it is still tracking at having an opening in the area of $35-$45 million. Many believe it will challenge Indy IV for the top spot at the box office this weekend.

 

[DavidJ]

With all the discussion in this thread recently, it is good to see Disney acknowledge this. Opening between the "Iron Man" and Indy juggernauts was just to much for "Prince Caspian." Which is a shame, because I really liked it and think it could've done much better. I imagine it will do well on DVD.

 

[TerryRL]

I think the prospect of facing off with Iron Man again (on top of "Shrek Goes Fourth" which is also a big May 2010 release) is something Disney and Walden Media really don't want to have anything to do with. I think it would be smart of them to move the next movie to December.

As for 'Prince Caspian', my kids really dug it. In fact, they liked it more than they did 'Lion, Witch & the Wardrobe'. I agree with you that the movie will probably do infinitely better on DVD, but this is a lesson learned for both Disney and Walden Media. The 'Narnia' flicks are better suited for holiday releases in my opinion.

 

[Kevin Grey]

The bad thing is that, by all rights, Prince Caspian shouldn't have had to worry about Iron Man since Caspian was the sequel to a $290 million grossing hit.

I agree that winter would have been a better match but I think there is more going on here than that- whether it's the actual marketing effort that Disney put in, the quality or nature of the finished product, failure to tap churches, etc. A change in season shouldn't account for grosses less than 50% of the original.

I think it was a similar mistake to release the third Harry Potter film in summer but it didn't take nearly the same hit at the box office.

 

[DavidPla]

Oh yes it did. But because it opened so high (93M) it didn't end up suffering too bad in overall gross. It ended up dropping 62% in its second weekend but is regarded as the best film of the series.. so clearly quality isn't much of a factor.

 

[Kevin Grey]

But it still opened- which Prince Caspian did not, despite LWatW performing similarly to the Harry Potter series. What was the last major sequel to open to less than it's predecessor? I'm sure there are examples but the vast majority of the time sequels open bigger but fall off faster.

But in terms of final gross, Narnia seems headed for a gross of less than $150 million, which is barely 50% of the originals gross. Azkaban, on the other hand, was 4% off of Chamber and 22% off of Sorcerer's Stone. In Azkaban's case I think that the season shift was probably the difference between $250 million and $300 million but that's a much bigger difference than we're seeing with Caspian so I think there is more to the story.

In terms of quality I'm not judging the film itself (haven't seen it and I wasn't a fan of the first one) but more about the comments on how much darker and violent this one is. Maybe word of mouth got around to families on that and turned them off?

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

I would argue that that Prisoner of Azkaban suffered exactly the same kind of hit by opening as a summer film. On the other hand, Order of the Phoenix was also a summer launch and it's the second highest grossing film in the series. I'd argue that's a special case though, because it came out near simultaneously with the final book in the series and the two sensations fed upon each other. Ticket prices also climbed significantly between Prisoner of Azkaban and Order of the Phoenix; adjusted for inflation, Order of the Phoenix brought in a whopping $90 million less than the first film and only $19.5 million more than the last November release, Goblet of Fire.

 

[Kevin Grey]

Yeah, I absolutely agree with that.

 

[Brandon Conway]

Azkaban also came out after kids were out of school, whereas Prince Caspian came out when kids still had school on weekdays, including the opening Friday.

The good news is, as Terry said, Disney recognizes their mistake and are likely gonna push Dawn Treader to December 2010 (or perhaps they'll push it UP to December 2009? That'll still be a full year after principal photography has wrapped.)

The other good news is that Caspian is a hit overseas. Check out these numbers so far:

Country: PC vs. LWW

Chile: 1.2M (11 days), 2.7M (8 wks)
India: 4.3M (10 days), ???
Japan: 7.7M (5 days), 57.3M (8 wks)
Malaysia: 1.9M (11 days), 1.9M (4 wks)
Mexico: 11.6M (10 days), 22.5M (20+ wks)
Russia CIS: 11.5M (11 days), 8.1M (20+ wks)
South Korea: 6.5M (11 days), 14M (20+ wks)

PC will open in the following countries throughout June, with LWW numbers in parenthesis:

UK (77.9M), France (33.8M), Spain (22.1M), Germany (27.4M), Australia (25.8M), Italy (20.1M), Sweden (10.4M), etc.

LWW made 451M internationally. With Caspian's strong showing in limited markets so far, I wouldn't be shocked by 550-600M internationally.