2008 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[Chuck Mayer]

Good to see Iron Man have a decent hold. I expected Speed Racer to have major BO issues, and it does. Too bad. Great movie for families.

I expect Narnia will do big business next week. I'm thinking $75M.

 

[TerryRL]

Right now, the tracking suggests that 'Prince Caspian' will open stronger than the $65.5 million launch of the first 'Narnia' flick three years ago. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it debuted as high as the $75 million you're predicting.

Many are now speculating that "Speed Racer" will perform very much like "The Golden Compass" did, earning a disappointing domestic haul ($70.1 million) but pulling in blockbuster-like numbers overseas ($301.4 million translating to a worldwide mark of $371.5 million). In any event, the soft debut of "Speed Racer" has probably killed any hope the Wachowski brothers, producer Joel Silver, and WB had for a lucrative franchise.

On top of all this, I heard that the SR toys aren't flying off the shelves as hoped for either. So far, "The Dark Knight" and Indy IV toys are selling at much higher levels (especially with retailers having a hard time keeping Joker figures in stock).

 

[Shawn.F]

Ouch. Maybe this type of flat opening will spur Warners to move the release date up for "The Dark Knight" to sometime next month.

Hey, one can dream can't they?

 

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "Iron Man" $15.3 million ($141.9 million) 57% Friday-to-Friday drop
#2 "What Happens in Vegas" $6.7 million
#3 "Speed Racer" $5.9 million
#4 "Made of Honor" $2.5 million ($21.1 million) 56% Friday-to-Friday drop
#5 "Baby Mama" $1.9 million ($36.5 million) 46% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "Forgetting Sarah Marshall" $1.2 million ($48.1 million) 39% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay" $1.1 million ($28.6 million) 49% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "The Forbidden Kingdom" $550K ($46.9 million) 53% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "Prom Night" $370K ($42.1 million) 58% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "Red Belt" $320K ($417K)
#11 "Nim's Island" $300K ($43.2 million) 54% Friday-to-Friday drop
#12 "21" $245K ($79.8 million) 62% Friday-to-Friday drop

 

[DavidPla]

Box Office Mojo has Speed Racer and What Happens in Vegas reversed.. which would be even worse for Speed Racer coming in 3rd. Congrats to Iron Man!

 

[TerryRL]

Thanks for pointing that out, its been fixed. Had a minor brain fart.

Looks like SR has become the summer's first high profile box office disappointment. A $20 million weekend will be tough to achieve.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

SR will make more on Sat and Sun, thanks for large numbers of kids going to see it (alert: anecdotal data). It'll still end up 2nd, probably barely scraping by the Vegas turdburger. Hopefully, it'll find an audience overseas.

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Iron Man" $50.5 million ($177.1 million) -49%
#2 "Speed Racer" $20.2 million
#3 "What Happens in Vegas" $20.0 million
#4 "Made of Honor" $7.6 million ($26.3 million) -49%
#5 "Baby Mama" $5.8 million ($40.4 million) -43%
#6 "Forgetting Sarah Marshall" $3.8 million ($50.7 million) -38%
#7 "Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay" $3.2 million ($30.7 million) -48%
#8 "The Forbidden Kingdom" $1.9 million ($48.3 million) -55%
#9 "Nim's Island" $1.3 million ($44.3 million) -51%
#10 "Redbelt" $1.1 million ($1.2 million) +1,699%
#11 "Prom Night" $1.05 million ($42.8 million) -56%
#12 "21" $835K ($80.4 million) -58%

The industry enjoyed a very solid frame as business was up 24% compared to last year, as well as being an impressive 43% stronger than this weekend in '06. The top twelve tallied a spectacular $117.3 million, making this weekend the best second-weekend performance ever for the month of May (besting the $115.3 mark from 2002). This also marks only the fourth time ever that this weekend has produced top twelve earnings of more than $100 million.

2008's year-to-date domestic mark now stands at $3.046 billion. '08 is now tied with last year for having fastest trek to the $3 billion domestic mark. This year's mark was about even with last year's year-to-date haul of $2.056 billion, 6% stronger than '06 ($2.872 billion), up 12% over '05 ($2.715 billion), and about 2% better than '04 ($2.999 billion).

In terms of ticket sales, '08 has sold about 435 million admissions. Past years saw '07 selling about 448 million, '06 had moved 438 million, '05 had sold 423.5 million, while '04 was sitting on a massive total of 483 million sold admissions at this point.

Marvel/Paramount's "Iron Man" became the 14th film in history to have second-weekend earnings of more than $50 million as the movie had a moderate dip of 49%. The action flick looks headed for a final haul in the neighborhood of $275-$285 million. A sequel has already been set for a late April 2010 launch.

WB's "Speed Racer" may have become the first high profile casualty of the summer as it opened about $10 million below most industry predictions. The $120 million budgeted film's modest $5,604 average from its 3,606 theaters came in behind both "Iron Man" ($12,284 from 4,111 locations) and "What Happens in Vegas". With the 'Narnia' sequel hitting theaters next week, "Speed Racer" may have a very short shelf-life.

Fox's "What Happens in Vegas" had a very solid opening as it pulled in about $20 million. The film, which cost only $35 million to make, earned a per-theater average of $6,220 from its 3,215 locations, which was the second best of the top ten. Fox is expecting this one to have a leggy run in the coming weeks.

After a disastrous April session of business (which earned an abysmal $496.5 million total for the month), "Iron Man" has signaled what the industry hopes will be a major turnaround at the box office.

Next weekend will see Disney's "The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian" hit theaters. Right now, the movie is tracking extremely strong. Many are now predicting an opening weekend north of the $65.55 million debut of the previous 'Narnia' flick, 'The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe'. Whatever the case may be, expect a pretty major debut for 'Prince Caspian' as "Iron Man" slips to the second slot.

 

[DavidPla]

Yikes for Speed Racer! Guess that ends the studio's hope for a new franchise.

 

[Pete-D]

Speed Racer recovered a bit though, at least it hit $20 mill.

The thing is, while it does like an anime in motion ... the colors are definitely not anime. It's way too over the top with the color and looks more like the Spy Kids or American animation.

Overall a solid weekend for the industry. If Speed Racer had hit $30-$40 million instead, just about every studio exec in Hollywood would probably be dancing.

 

[Joel C]

Too bad about Speed Racer, though... no surprise. A 135-minute kids movie with lots of talky scenes about corporate espionage? A franchise with limited appeal amoung any demographic, let alone kids? A weird cartoonish style? Too much for most audiences.

I'm not surprised it got bad reviews, but I really enjoyed it. It was more fun for me than Iron Man, in fact.

 

[Malcolm R]

I wouldn't be surprised if it drops below $20M when actual numbers come in.

 

[TerryRL]

With the Wachowski brothers and WB targeting family audiences, the movie should've been about 90 minutes long instead clocking in at nearly 2 hours and 15 minutes. The final numbers may end up pushing "What Happens in Vegas" into the #2 slot when they're released tomorrow, although SR may end up keeping its slight lead over that film (that's what WB execs are hoping for).

Regardless, SR is already being seen as the summer's first high profile disappointment and any chances of a franchise are more than likely dead unless the movie shows incredibly strong legs in the coming weeks, which most aren't expecting. If the movie does end up pulling a fast fade from theaters, WB will very likely look to recoup some of their losses with the DVD release in September (especially considering the toys aren't selling as well as hoped).

Next weekend 'Prince Caspian' will probably control the bulk of the family audience as it is so far tracking at opening in the neighborhood of $60-$70 million. While 'Voyage of the Dawn Treader' is currently filming, for Disney (and Walden Media) to fully commit to doing the full seven-story arc, 'Prince Caspian' will probably have to do numbers similar to that of the first 'Narnia' film. 'The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe' earned $291.7 million domestically and a whopping $744.8 million worldwide.

If 'Prince Caspian' does comparable business both here and abroad, than expect to see all seven 'Narnia' adventures be turned into big screen epics. Both Disney and Walden Media are cautiously optimistic that 'Prince Caspian' will pull in blockbuster-like numbers. I know 'Caspian' will open big, the only question is just how big?

 

[Shawn.F]

I noticed that at a local toy store in a mall near my house, they already had huge signs on the Speed Racer display stating "Buy one SR toy, get another one at 50% off". Oh well, can't win 'em all I guess.

 

[JediFonger]

didya guys watch the movie? it was the best one of 2008... unfortunately... no1 saw it or are willing to give it a chance. if you do go, go IMAX 3-D =D. it's got awesome action and great character/dialogues.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

My wife thought it was a bit too long, and when I asked her what she would cut, she couldn't answer. Neither could I. I recognize the film is a flop, and now that will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. The world can gear up for Transformers 2 by Michael Bay instead.

As Ebert says, a good movie is never too long, and a bad movie is never too short. I don't think the length hurt (my kid fidgeted WAY more in Iron Man), but the advertising campaign was poor. I hope they recoup their losses with a HUGE Blu Ray, though I am certain I'll get double-dipped No worries. Just a bit depressed about it.

 

[TerryRL]

The marketing campaign did leave a lot to be desired. If that wasn't bad enough, the Box Office Mojo and Variety sites are reporting that the actual opening mark for SR was $18.6 million compared to the $20.2 million that they have "What Happens in Vegas" earning. Looks like Fox was correct in accusing WB of inflating the numbers for SR.

Actuals...
#1 "Iron Man" $51.2 million
#2 "What Happens in Vegas" $20.2 million
#3 "Speed Racer" $18.6 million

 

[DavidPla]

I've read that it's doing pretty poorly internationally as well. I wonder if it will make its budget back at all until the DVD release.

 

[Brook K]

Add me to the disappointed list as I'm a big fan of the cartoon and while I thought the casting of Speed was weak, I was optimistic (and still am) that a good movie would come out of it. I had hoped to see it this weekend but that fell through and we saw Iron Man instead. The coming weekend is Prince Caspian, but I do plan on catching Speed with my son while it's still in theaters.

 

[JediFonger]

i think this is a case where the property is too obscure!