2008 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "Iron Man" $32.5 million ($38.0 million)
#2 "Made of Honor" $5.4 million
#3 "Baby Mama" $3.5 million ($25.5 million) 45% Friday-to-Friday drop
#4 "Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay" $2.1 million ($21.4 million) 65% Friday-to-Friday drop
#5 "Forgetting Sarah Marshal" $1.9 million ($40.6 million) 44% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "The Forbidden Kingdom" $1.2 million ($42.1 million) 64% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "Prom Night" $870K ($39.8 million) 48% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "21" $660K ($77.6 million) 49% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "Nim's Island" $655K ($40.4 million) 45% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "88 Minutes" $460K ($14.3 million) 55% Friday-to-Friday drop
#11 "Horton Hears a Who" $285K ($148.8 million) 56% Friday-to-Friday drop
#12 "Deception" $265K ($3.4 million) 65% Friday-to-Friday drop

 

[Jose Martinez]

I predict the first big casualty of the summer will be Speed Racer. Iron Man should easily triumph at the finish line by a wide margin in its second weekend.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

While I have interest in Speed Racer, it's being poorly marketed (it's a PG film...a summer blockbuster for all ages). A week after Iron Man and a week before Narnia will kill it. I'll still check it out, but it's not going to make summer money.

 

[TerryRL]

Jose could be right. "Speed Racer" hasn't been tracking as strong as WB had hoped, on top of the fact that "What Happens in Vegas" has been tracking a bit stronger up to this point. What also could hurt the film is that 'Prince Caspian' opens the very next weekend, which will very likely take the majority of the family crowd that WB hopes will make "Speed Racer" a huge summer hit (a steep percentage fall during its second weekend looks to be in the cards because of the 'Narnia' sequel).

The studio is still confident that the movie will defy the tracking and pull in a big opening weekend tally. "Speed Racer" and "What Happens in Vegas" should have a fairly intense contest for the #2 slot next weekend with "Iron Man" more then likely retaining the top spot. WB's best case scenario is that the movie puts up a stronger-than-expected challenge to IM for the #1 slot.

A buddy of mine runs a few theaters and he informed me that no one among the theater elite is all that surprised that SR is tracking so slowly. As Chuck pointed out, the marketing has been pretty all over the place, leaving some patrons confused as to what type of movie its actually going to be.

Still, all this could be moot if the movie blows away expectations and has a huge opening next weekend, but things aren't looking that good right now.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Part of the problem with Speed Racer is that it just looks so strange. I can never understand what the hell is going on in the trailers.

I wonder to what extent the casting of Iron Man helped its B.O. I know Fox was very hesitant to let Favreau cast Robert Downey Jr., but his star power (along with a stellar supporting cast) seems to be what is keeping it from B-list status since Iron Man isn't nearly as well known as even the Hulk.

 

[MatthewLouwrens]

Agreed. I'm personally looking forward to the film, but a lot of that is because everything they show of it makes it look insane. But I can see that that would be very offputting to a lot of people.

 

[Patrick Sun]

I'm debating on whether or not to take some dramamine before seeing Speed Racer...

 

[TerryRL]

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Iron Man" $100.8 million ($104.3 million)
#2 "Made of Honor" $15.5 million
#3 "Baby Mama" $10.3 million ($32.3 million) -41%
#4 "Forgetting Sarah Marshall" $6.1 million ($44.8 million) -44%
#5 "Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay" $6.0 million ($25.3 million) -60%
#6 "The Forgotten Kingdom" $4.2 million ($45.1 million) -63%
#7 "Nim's Island" $2.8 million ($42.5 million) -40%
#8 "Prom Night" $2.5 million ($41.4 million) -45%
#9 "21" $2.1 million ($79.1 million) -48%
#10 "88 Minutes" $1.6 million ($15.4 million) -56%
#11 "Horton Hears a Hear" $1.4 million ($149.8 million) -46%
#12 "Deception" $865K ($4.0 million) -63%

Though business was off about 15% from last year's monster debut of "Spider-Man 3", the box office was more than 60% stronger than this frame in '06 when M:I-III debuted. The top twelve films pulled in a whopping $154.1 million, marking the second best first-weekend haul ever for the month of May, trailing only the $181.3 million performance from last year (again, headlined by the $151.1 million opening of Spidey 3).

2008's year-to-date domestic haul now stands at $2.883 billion, representing a 1% increase over last year ($2.863 billion), up 6% over '06 ($2.732 billion), 11% stronger than '05 ($2.604 billion), and 1% stronger than '04 ($2.859 billion).

2008 has now moved about 412 million theater admissions. At this time last year, '07 had sold close to 420 million tickets, '06 moved 417 million admissions, '05 was sitting on an amount of 406 million, while '04 had sold a staggering 460 million tickets.

Marvel/Paramount's "Iron Man" blew away most industry predictions (that had it pegged at opening with $70-$80 million) by becoming the tenth film in history to open with more than $100 million. The movie, which cost in the neighborhood of $140-$150 million (not counting marketing costs), now ranks as the tenth best opening in history, as well as the eighth best start ever for the month of May.

"Iron Man" is also in a eight-way tie for the second fastest trip to the century mary at three days (Spidey 3 and Pirates 2 hold the record at passing that mark in only two days). The film also marked the 18th best per-theater average of a film opening in more than 500 locations with its $24,543 average from its massive 4,105 play-dates (which currently ranks as the ninth widest opening in history).

Overseas, the movie pulled in just under $100 million ($96.8 million), already giving it a worldwide haul of $201 million. "Iron Man" now ranks as the best live-action launch ever for Paramount Studios (trailing the $121.6 million start of "Shrek the Third" from DreamWorks). The film marks career bests for director Jon Favreau, as well as stars Robert Downey Jr., Terrence Howard, Gwyneth Paltrow, and Jeff Bridges. Favreau, Downey, Howard, and Paltrow will all be back for the sequel, which is already set for launch in 2010.

Sony's "Made of Honor" also got off to a great start as it pulled in $15.5 million, giving a solid average of $5,679 from its 2,729 locations. The studio is expecting a leggy run from the modestly budgeted ($40 million) romantic/comedy.

After a disastrous spring session of movie-going, this was the kind of start the industry needed to the summer season. Next weekend will see WB's "Speed Racer" and Fox's "What Happens in Vegas" challenge the dominance of "Iron Man". Look for the two new releases to battle for the #2 slot depending on how big a percentage fall "Iron Man" suffers.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

I expected it would beat my $84M. I didn't think it would quite crack the 9 digit heights, but I'm not surprised. I expect it'll have decent legs as well. Audiences seem really happy with it.

Makes me happy. Maybe we can get a Captain America movie after all.

 

[Malcolm R]

It's also Mother's Day weekend which will put the kibosh on much of the Sunday business, as I doubt many Moms are clamoring to see a SR movie. Actually, I don't think many were clamoring for a SR movie, period. Its green-lighting remains a mystery to me.

Very surprised at the big numbers for "Iron Man." I'll be interested to see the actual figures on Monday.

 

[DavidPla]

What's next for Marvel after Hulk and Wolverine next year? I don't think I've heard of any other Marvel movies in development at this point (which will probably change come Monday).

 

[Zack Gibbs]

Punisher 2 is coming out this December. Marvels had Thor and Captain America in development for a while, I'd imagine they'll focus on these for the eventual Avengers movie, especially if Hulk does well too. There's a whole slew of other titles in development with mostly C-list superheros, nothing really solid from the sound of it.

 

[Steve Christou]

Iron Man's already grossed over $200 million worldwide in just 3 days? Wow! Can't wait to see it.

It's already the highest grossing film in Robert Downey Jr's career and it's only just opened!

I wonder if Edward Norton will be as lucky with the Hulk, the highest grossing film Norton starred in was the remake of The Italian Job, $176m worldwide according to box office mojo, followed by Red Dragon.

 

[TerryRL]

With "Iron Man" going through the roof at the box office (a sequel is now on tap for the summer of 2010), Marvel will very likely fast-track both "Captain America" and "Thor" to the big screen. "Thor" already has a writer (Mark Protosevich) and a director (Matthew Vaughn) attached with a proposed budget of $150 million.

Marvel is currently seeking both a writer and director for the "Captain America" project, as well as the eventual team-up flick "The Avengers". CA and "Thor" will also very likely feature "hints" to the future 'Avengers' movie.

With "Iron Man" already set for 2010 (as well as the 'Magneto' film from the Marvel's new 'X-Men Origins' series), don't be surprised of Marvel has "Thor" ready for that summer as well, with "Captain America" launching in 2011.

 

[Adam_S]

 

[JediFonger]

saw iron man twice (count me in the box office and also saw forgetting sarah marshall+baby mama. the last 2 wasn't as funny as i thought it was going to be. iron man's 2nd viewing made me see its flaws =P. not a lot of replay-ability.

i dont think speed racer will make a lot of moola. both adults AND kidz just dunno what the old cartoon is and is 2weirded out by the trailers/ads. unlike the matrix, this is one of those that will not make it big in the cinema, but like the matrix it'll be a huge hit in the home video market. i'm looking forward to th 3D aspects in IMAX =D.

 

[SilverWook]

Speed Racer was revived on MTV in the 80's, and Cartoon Network in the 90's, so I would think more people would remember it besides old geezers like me.

 

[EricW]

i have to admit, when Iron Man was talked about years ago (when Tom Cruise was attached), i thought they were picking the bottom of the comic book barrel. granted, CG was not as advanced as it is today. the movie is very solid.
While there are no spectacular set pieces like Superman Returns' airplane rescue (to which all superhero movie action scenes should be compared), or BB's tumbler scene, or the Spidey/Doc Oc fights, the movie overall is very watchable. After watching Favreau's direction i can only imagine how much better Fantastic Four would have been had he done it.
But even with Iron Man a surprise, i will very VERY impressed if they can actually pull off a Captain America or a Thor. i mean Captain America?!?!?!? doing a serious take on that guy would be an exercise. first, the costume. it's ridiculous even for a ~comic book~. the guy has feathers on his head and swashbuckling boots. and he carries a shield. who carries a shield? as with Xmen, he's going to have to change the costume. the problem is he doesn't have distinguishing attributes like claws or visors. the other problem is the guy is a soldier at a time when the american military is a touchy subject.

 

[DavidPla]

Which is why I think now would be a perfect time to bring him out. Start the movie during WWII for the first half hour or so and then bring him to our time (which I think they did in the comics). How would a patriotic soldier from the 40s that stood for everything American see our world as it is today and how would the world treat him back. It could make for a very epic, emotional film.