2007 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[Adam Lenhardt]

If my audience was any indication, Live Free or Die Hard is going to have a massive opening. Got there twenty minutes early to a packed house. People clapped at the end and laughed in all the right places. Really positive chatter on the way out.

 

[Lou Sytsma]

There are many that actually prefer Wendy's to a four star meal. It seems to hold true with movies as well where it is constantly shown that BO office returns and movie quality are not definitively linked.

 

[Tino]

Live Free Or Die Hard I believe will be the surprise blockbuster of the season. Knocked Up had good buzz before it opened, but DH had a lot of naysayers.

I say $100 million by Monday.

 

[Adam_S]

I'm still not convinced that Transformers will win the summer, I think it'll top out between 200 and 300, performing much like Godzilla. yeah the commercials are cool, but I just don't see this garnering the wide and sustained appeal of Independence Day, Spidey, or Pirates 1. On the other hand I think the performance of Harry Potter is going to stun everyone, but I'm biased.

 

[Malcolm R]

$8.9 million for LFoDH on Wednesday. Not a huge amount, but not bad for mid-week and hopefully enough to get word-of-mouth rolling for the weekend.

As far as Wednesday openings go, it's in the same ballpark as past hits like King Kong (2005), Armageddon, Toy Story 2, and Terminator 2.



.

 

[TerryRL]

The Box Office Mojo has "Live Free or Die Hard" pulling in $9.11 million yesterday. Overall, that's the 27th best Wednesday opening day tally in history just behind 'Legally Blonde 2' ($9.14 million) and ahead of "Cats and Dogs" ($9.0 million).

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Not that I disagree, but they probably haven't had a real 4 star meal That said, I agree our stomachs are probably smarter than our brains.

 

[Adam_S]

Terry,

What're the inflation adjusted grosses and ticket salesfor the first three Die Hard movies? That'd make for a nice baseline to compare the grosses of Live Free or Die Hard to.



I found the series tracker from box office mojo:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchi...id=diehard.htm

The original grossed, 83, the second grossed 117, the third grossed 100, btw, for those too lazy to click the link. But those numbers don't tell us much in comparison to tickets and/or inflation adjusted numbers.

 

[TerryRL]

In 1988 "Die Hard" sold 20.2 million tickets, which would translate to a $135.3 million domestic haul today.

'Die Hard 2' sold 27.8 million admissions in 1990. That would give the sequel a $186.3 million domestic haul in today's marketplace.

DH 3 moved 23 million tickets in '95, giving it a $154.1 million domestic tally in '07 dollars.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

Wow - there's some impressive competition!

 

[Pete-D]

The word of mouth on Die Hard 4 is going to be strong. It's no Die Hard 1, but it's definitely the best straight-up action movie in ages.

The problem I see for it is Transformers is right around the corner and that is going to target much of the same demographic. Opening it perhaps a week earlier would've been a good idea, but this summer is just so packed with big new releases every weekend that I guess sadly some genuinely good blockbusters are going to end up taking a hit.

Quality wise though, DH4 is a lot more satisfying than Spidey 3 or Pirates 3.

 

[TheBat]

they probably should have released die hard 4 on the same weekend as evan almighty.. probably would have done better.

Jacob

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Well, maybe in a few months. 300 had better action scenes If you mean shoot-em-ups, then Miami Vice a year ago was superior at every level. But DH4 is a crowdpleaser, and should work well with mainstream filmgoers.

 

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "Ratatouille" $16.6 million
#2 "Live Free or Die Hard" $10.6 million ($25.6 million)
#3 "Evan Almighty" $5.1 million ($50.6 million) 55% Friday-to-Friday drop
#4 "1408" $3.7 million ($33.5 million) 52% Friday-to-Friday drop
#5 "Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer" $2.7 million ($108.5 million) 57% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "Knocked Up" $2.3 million ($117.3 million) 34% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "Ocean's Thirteen" $1.8 million ($97.9 million) 48% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" $1.4 million ($292.2 million) 31% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "Sicko" $1.3 million ($1.4 million) 5541% Friday-to-Friday increase
#10 "Evening" $1.2 million

 

[Chuck Mayer]

So Ratatouille might be the lowest opening Pixar film. That's a shame but, like Cars, it'll play all summer. Not a bad Friday for LFoDH.

 

[ChrisMatson]

Sicko deserves a wider release. A true must-see.

 

[TerryRL]

Past Pixar opening weekends (wide releases)...

1995 "Toy Story" $29.1 million ($44.9 million adjusted for inflation)
1998 "A Bug's Life" $33.3 million ($47.6 million adjusted for inflation)
1999 "Toy Story 2" $57.4 million ($75.7 million adjusted for inflation)
2001 "Monster's, Inc." $62.6 million ($74.4 million adjusted for inflation)
2003 "Finding Nemo" $70.3 million ($77.7 million adjusted for inflation)
2004 "The Incredibles" $70.5 million ($76.0 million adjusted for inflation)
2006 "Cars" $60.1 million ($61.0 million adjusted for inflation)

"Ratatouille" is on pace to open in the neighborhood of $50-$55 million. Of the eight flicks Pixar has made, it would be the sixth best debut weekend mark (if it performs as prognosticated by its Friday numbers). In terms of overall theater admissions sold it would also rank as the sixth best for the studio.

 

[Adam_S]

I think Ratatouille will have a very good multiplier consistent with the Toy Story films, though not as crazy good as Nemo's. It's an excellent film. Imo, the kiki's delivery service of Pixar (Nemo would be their Totoro, Toy Story their Nausicaa). I can't wait to see if they'll reach the heights of Spirited Away or Mononoke Hime in the next decade). It will be interesting to see how this holds up against one two punch of the kid friendly Transformers and Harry Potter, perhaps in a month or two we'll be saying that it should have opened on Evan's weekend, but I hope not.

 

[DavidPla]

I think the PG rating will help it there. Very young children might be kept away from Transformers and Harry Potter because of the PG-13 which might hurt each other as they might be going for a similar audience with young teenagers.

 

[Jose Martinez]

Box Office Guru has Ratatouille's weekend numbers on the low end at $47M. Ouch.