2007 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[TerryRL]

You might be right. Many are expecting "Knocked Up" to be the summer's biggest sleeper hit. Don't be surprised if it has a very good opening this weekend north of $20 million.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

I don't think any of the Potter flicks will ever outgross the first one. It brought in a lot of people curious to see what the fuss was about, but a lot of them didn't much like it and they didn't return for the subsequent chapters. If "Stone" had been a really good flick ala "Fellowship of the Ring", it could've led to higher grosses for the following movies, but I don't think it convinced non-believers to stick with the franchise...

 

[Lou Sytsma]

True in my case. Though I have read all the books.

 

[Kevin Grey]

Well, subsequent films have improved quite a bit and there have been plenty of avenues for people to catch those outside of the theater so it's possible that someone disappointed in the first movie could be interested in the series again. Just look at the jump in grosses between Parts 3 & 4. The $40 million increase there is less than the $27 million that separated Goblet of Fire from Sorcerer's Stone.

 

[Holadem]

I realize that. But these records have been getting broken for years, and they (media and studios) never cared as much as they seem to do in recent years. That's what I find strange.

--
H

 

[Malcolm R]

Gotta love those studio expectations. None of those suits would know how to function in the real world.

The fate of The Simpsons Movie will depend on whether it's something edgy and fresh, or just a triple-length TV episode. If it's the latter, what's the point? Just show it on FOX.

 

[Kevin Grey]

Well, records weren't being broken at this pace either- Spiderman was on top from 2002 to 2006 when Dead Man's Chest finally beat it. Then that record falls in less than a year to Spidey 3 so that automatically sets up a certain expectation that maybe the next Pirates movie should trump that one. Then you have Shrek 3, sequel to the film with the second highest box office in initial release so there are certainly some record-breaking aspirations there.

As it's been mentioned for going on six months or more- this past May was really a perfect storm of sequels to box office powerhouses, all of which had the potential for record breaking openings. Last summer you didn't get that same sort of interest because box office expectations weren't as high.

Media attention really steps up when the records don't require many caveats. X3 setting the opening record for Memorial Day opening is neat and all, but it pales compared to Spidey 3 setting the opening record period.

 

[Travis_S]

"Transformers" moves up one day to July 3rd:

http://boxofficemojo.com/schedule/?view=changes&p=.htm

 

[TerryRL]

With the strong critical reaction "Knocked Up" has generated, the "talk" is that the movie will hurt Pirates 3 by taking away a large portion of the film's female audience this weekend, resulting in a 60%-plus decline. The general consensus seems to be that Pirates 3 will remain #1 pulling in about $45 million, with "Knocked Up" coming in second with a $25 million debut. We'll see what happens.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

I'm going straight from work to meet a friend at the theater for "Knocked Up". I think this movie's going to be big, but probably not as front loaded as the tentpoles.

 

[TerryRL]

Most expect a solid opening ($25 million-plus) followed by very strong percentage holds in the coming weeks. This one should be a very leggy hit for Universal.

 

[Jason Harbaugh]

I'm just not feeling it for Knocked Up. None of the trailers are funny, I've heard virtually nothing about it, don't care about any of the actors involved, and the story isn't that appealing. It doesn't have the same vibe as 40 Year Old Virgin, or Wedding Crashers. Unless it truely is a solid, funny comedy, I don't see it having the same legs as those two films. I'm guessing 75m tops.

 

[Malcolm R]

Ditto.

That child rape joke in the trailer is just sooooo funny. :rolleyes

 

[Kevin Grey]

92% at Rotten Tomatoes (96% Cream of the Crop) with lots of raves. So early word on it certainly looks promising.

 

[Jason Harbaugh]

Yeah I just noticed that. I'll probably be way off, but I'm sticking with 75m.

I just rewatched the trailer and maybe this is one of those rare moments when they don't put the funny parts in?

 

[Kevin Grey]

Well, there really isn't much of a link between quality and box office so I'm not willing to put any bets down how Knocked Up will do financially. But I do know that reviews (and Judd Apatow's track record) have me very interested in seeing it.

Re: trailers- it's supposedly a pretty raunchy movie so I question how much of the material in the movie is even fit for a trailer.

 

[TerryRL]

UPDATED SUMMER '08 RELEASE SCHEDULE

(where are all the sequels? )

MAY
"Iron Man" (Paramount) 5/2
"Made of Honor" (Sony) 5/2
"The Day the Earth Stood Still" (Fox) 5/9
"Speed Racer" (WB) 5/9
"The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian" (Disney) 5/16
"Indiana Jones IV" (Lucasfilm/Paramount) 5/22 (Thursday)
"Starship Dave" (Fox) 5/30

JUNE
"Kung Fu Panda" (DreamWorks/Paramount) 6/6
"Nights of Rodanthe" (WB) 6/6
"The Happening" (Fox) 6/13
"The Incredible Hulk" (Universal) 6/13
"Get Smart" (WB) 6/20
"The Love Guru" (Paramount) 6/20
"Wall-E" (Disney/Pixar) 6/27

JULY
"Kit Kittredge: An American Girl Mystery" (Picturehouse) 7/2 (Wednesday)
"Tonight, He Comes" (Sony) 7/2 (Wednesday)
"The Mummy: Curse of the Dragon" (Universal) 7/11
"Tropic Thunder" (DreamWorks/Paramount) 7/11
"The Dark Knight" (WB) 7/18
"Mama Mia!" (Universal) 7/18
"Step Brothers" (Sony) 7/25

AUGUST
"Hellboy 2: The Golden Army" (Universal) 8/1
"Journey 3D" (New Line) 8/8

Initially, I thought the schedule seemed a little weak, but looking at it now, I'm a lot more excited about it and I think next summer could end up being fantastic for movie-goers. "The Dark Knight" remains my most anticipated summer release next year, but there is a lot of potentially great stuff here.

While there will be some BIG TIME sequels opening ("The Dark Knight", Indy IV, 'Prince Caspian', The Mummy 3), there looks to be enough "new" material to excite movie-goers who have sequel fatigue from this summer's seemingly endless crop of three-quels. While it probably won't pull in Spidey-like numbers, I think "Iron Man" will get the summer off to a great start.

And don't be surprised if "Speed Racer" ends up being one of the summer's better performers. The Wachowski brothers have solid material to work with and this one could be huge with family audiences. I also think "Get Smart" is the perfect vehicle for star Steve Carell, while "Tonight, He Comes" looks to be an edgier (and more humorous) take on the superhero genre.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

The movie definitely didn't use up its good jokes in the trailer. Quite a few are too raunchy for a greenband trailer, and one in particular had me questioning how the flick dodged an NC-17.

Having said all of that, the entire theater I was in (a big one, too) was with the film from beginning to end. I expect the word of mouth on this flick to be through the roof.

 

[MikeRS]

I have no problem believing "Knocked Up" might even reach 100 million domestic when it's all said and done. Characters acting like honest-to-goodness human beings (in a hysterical dramedy to boot) sticks out in cartoon summer.

 

[TerryRL]

The early word is that Pirates 3 is on line for about a 70% Friday-to-Friday drop (ouch!), while "Knocked Up" and "Shrek the Third" are in a closer-than-expected battle for the #2 slot. Both films look headed for weekend marks in the neighborhood of $25 million.

Despite massive opening weekend numbers, its starting to look like none of the "big three" will end up topping the $350 million. Spidey 3 looks headed for a final mark of about $330-$340 mil, Shrek 3 should pull in about $300-$315 mil, while Pirates 3 might struggle to get past the triple-century mark.

Of course, none of these marks is anything for their respective studios to feel bad about, but in the case of Spidey 3 and Pirates 3 (which now rank as the top two most expensive movies ever made), much more was expected. Still, both films are proving to be more popular overseas than their previous installments (both should end up with worldwide hauls of more than $900 million) and both Disney and Sony will end up seeing nice sized profits for these two movies.

And yes, Spidey 4 is still a go, as well as another Pirates adventure (which may or may not end up being a prequel). I thought Pirates 3 would perform much stronger domestically than either Spidey or Shrek (oops), but Disney may have released the movie a year too soon instead of opting to open it behind both Spidey 3 and Shrek 3.